Erick Erickson's Blog, page 126

Back on for Boortz

Today I'm filling in for Neal Boortz again and I'll tell you all about the debt ceiling.

Tune in live from 8:30 a.m. to 1 p.m. ET by clicking right here.

The phone number is 1-800-WSB-TALK.

Consider this an open thread.

So What's the Deal With the Deal

Here's the deal — I think we should hold out till after August 3rd because I think August 2nd is an imaginary deadline.

I likewise think the super committee is going to raise taxes — and raise them in a big way.

Also, I'm convinced the GOP is lying to itself on this plan.

All that said, we're not going to get a better deal now. The GOP is scared of its own shadow. At least, however, at least . . . at least we may get some real entitlement reform.

Lastly, the tears of the left on this are delicious. For that alone, I want to support this deal. But because of the foregoing reasons, I can't support this deal. However, it could be worse.

Were I in Congress, I'd vote against it. All that said, I think this is it, so we might as well get used to it. Just keep track of who on the right votes against it. They'll be the real heroes.

If we get lucky, it goes down and we fight on. Just don't hold your breath on that one.

And, in a moment of personal honesty, I have a hard time disliking something Emmanuel Cleaver calls a "sugar coated Satan sandwich." That sounds so delicious.

Not Playing the Fool

There are a lot of Republicans tonight willing to play the fool for the GOP in this debt ceiling plan. They say, for example, that there will be no tax increases from this super committee. Never mind that the Democrats are saying otherwise.

I can prove to you right now that there will be tax increases.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) expects the Bush tax cuts to expire. So all the commission has to do is two things: extend middle class Bush tax cuts and enact a permanent alternative minimum tax (AMT) patch. Those two together would look like an increase to the deficit in CBO scoring. So then the commission can start out of the gate with the ability to create several trillion dollars in new tax hikes to equal out to the cuts — cuts that will happen even without the commission most likely. And where will those cuts come from? Those making $250,000.00 or more, of course. And probably the Gang of 6′s ideas to eliminate most deductions to income taxes without revenue neutral rate reductions and the Gang of 6′s pièce de résistance — raising capital gains taxes from 15% to 28%.

Have people not been paying attention? In every single address the President has given on the debt ceiling, he has insisted on new tax revenue. John Boehner even put $800 billion on the table, so it is already there.

The House and Senate GOP leadership may have convinced themselves that they have snookered the Democrats, but even little ole me, a non-budget genius, can drive a truck through their argument. And their best response probably comes from Ryan Ellis of Americans for Tax Reform. That counter argument is best summed up as but . . . but . . . but . . . the House Leadership says so. And if puppies were unicorns, we'd all live in a fantasy land.

Apparently, young lefty Ezra Klein who thinks no one pays attention to the constitution because, dude, it's so old, is brighter than Ryan Ellis at ATR. Klein writes, "Boehner is misleading his members to make them think taxes are impossible under this deal. The Joint Committee could close loopholes and cap tax expenditures. It could impose a value-added tax, or even a tax on carbon."

There will be tax increases. The Deficit Commission will have at least one weak kneed Republican and the commission will only be as strong as its weakest link. The Bush tax cuts will also absolutely expire and not be renewed.

The alternative for the GOP would be seeing massive defense cuts and being blamed for senior citizens seeing their medicare cut. "But," House Republican leaders exclaim, "the cuts would not be to beneficiaries."

True, the cuts would be punishing doctors who will respond by denying access to medicare patients.

The Democrats are happy to force through taxes in the committee and then, when the GOP opposes them, claim the GOP would rather hurt our soldiers and seniors than raise taxes on "fat cat millionaires."

And if we've learned nothing else these past few weeks, the GOP fears more than anything else what the Democrats say about them. Don't believe me on taxes, then ask GOP leadership why they haven't put in a clear statement prohibiting them or, even better, why there is no prohibition on decoupling the middle class Bush tax cuts from the upper income Bush taxes cuts.Last week in the Washington Post, the GOP Leadership in Congress planted a hit job about me. How do I know they planted it? If not obvious from the story itself, it was from the conversation between the reporter and those she talked to.

One of the "attacks" on me was that I was too predictable. Yes, it is true. I am predictable conservative and am not willing to sell out my conservatism for the team. I hate to break it to you.

I was sorely tempted to do so now with this deal as our guys are running scared and are convinced the August 2nd deadline is real. But the GOP is in denial, excited by left wing hyperbole against the deal, and unable to see what is on the horizon.

There are stories in the press that (A) the White House and Treasury Department won't give the GOP information about how much money the U.S. has on hand and (B) that both Democrat and Republican leaders are mad as hell that the markets haven't crashed so they could scare conservatives into taking a deal.

It is true — Republican and Democrat leaders are upset the market has not crashed.

Now, having run out the clock and admitted that Harry Reid and Mitch McConnell wrote John Boehner's plan (that was in the Washington Post), they now want to go back to a grand compromise that yet again includes a super committee of Congress that can pass tax increases with no way to block the committee.

And if they do somehow stop the committee or kill its idea, then our soldiers in the field would see punitive cuts to the defense budget, even more so than seniors who will see cuts to medicare. In other words, cuts so painful to right and left that both will have to take the committee recommendation.

"But it's okay," they tell us. "The committee is structured in such a way that they can't get tax increases." Having considered the matter carefully — this is utter bullcrap.

So here's what will happen. The people who are predictably willing to fold to save face with the GOP will ridicule you, me, and the tea party. And in November, when the chickens come home to roost and what I predict comes true yet again, they'll pretend yet again that they were with us the whole time.

But taxes will go up and the Democrats will have won, left wing hysteria notwithstanding.

Morning Briefing for August 1, 2010

RedState Morning Briefing

For August 1, 2011

Go to www.RedStateMB.com to get
the Morning Briefing every morning at no charge.

I'll be filling in for Neal Boortz again today. You can listen live from 8:30 a.m. to 1p.m. by going to http://wsbradio.com and call in at 1-800-WSB-TALK.

— Erick

1. Not Playing the Fool

2. Why We Fight

3. The Liar, The Witch, and The Wardrobe: Five Lies about the Debt Limit told Over the Weekend by a Fraud, a Harpie, and an "Empty Suit"

4. The RedState Gathering

5. Ex-Union Member Fights $200,000 Union Fine For Working Non-Union

6. The 22 Who Held the Line

7. An Interesting Observation

8. A note to you disenchanted tea party activists

———————————————————————-

1. Not Playing the Fool

There are a lot of Republicans tonight willing to play the fool for the GOP in this debt ceiling plan. They say, for example, that there will be no tax increases from this super committee. Never mind that the Democrats are saying otherwise.

I can prove to you right now that there will be tax increases.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) expects the Bush tax cuts to expire. So all the commission has to do is two things: extend middle class Bush tax cuts and enact a permanent alternative minimum tax (AMT) patch. Those two together would look like an increase to the deficit in CBO scoring. So then the commission can start out of the gate with the ability to create several trillion dollars in new tax hikes to equal out to the cuts — cuts that will happen even without the commission most likely. And where will those cuts come from? Those making $250,000.00 or more, of course. And probably the Gang of 6?s ideas to eliminate most deductions to income taxes without revenue neutral rate reductions and the Gang of 6?s pièce de résistance — raising capital gains taxes from 15% to 28%.

Have people not been paying attention? In every single address the President has given on the debt ceiling, he has insisted on new tax revenue. John Boehner even put $800 billion on the table, so it is already there.

The House and Senate GOP leadership may have convinced themselves that they have snookered the Democrats, but even little ole me, a non-budget genius, can drive a truck through their argument. And their best response probably comes from Ryan Ellis of Americans for Tax Reform. That counter argument is best summed up as but . . . but . . . but . . . the House Leadership says so. And if puppies were unicorns, we'd all live in a fantasy land.

Apparently, young lefty Ezra Klein who thinks no one pays attention to the constitution because, dude, it's so old, is brighter than Ryan Ellis at ATR. Klein writes, "Boehner is misleading his members to make them think taxes are impossible under this deal. The Joint Committee could close loopholes and cap tax expenditures. It could impose a value-added tax, or even a tax on carbon."

There will be tax increases. The Deficit Commission will have at least one weak kneed Republican and the commission will only be as strong as its weakest link. The Bush tax cuts will also absolutely expire and not be renewed.

The alternative for the GOP would be seeing massive defense cuts and being blamed for senior citizens seeing their medicare cut. "But," House Republican leaders exclaim, "the cuts would not be to beneficiaries."

True, the cuts would be punishing doctors who will respond by denying access to medicare patients.

The Democrats are happy to force through taxes in the committee and then, when the GOP opposes them, claim the GOP would rather hurt our soldiers and seniors than raise taxes on "fat cat millionaires."

And if we've learned nothing else these past few weeks, the GOP fears more than anything else what the Democrats say about them. Don't believe me on taxes, then ask GOP leadership why they haven't put in a clear statement prohibiting them or, even better, why there is no prohibition on decoupling the middle class Bush tax cuts from the upper income Bush taxes cuts.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

2. Why We Fight

Over the past week, the Tea Party has been impugned and maligned with more ferocity than ever before. Amidst our push to balance the budget, downsize job-killing government agencies and programs, and preserve our AAA credit rating, we have been condemned as extremists, suicidal, and traitors. Sadly, most of these acrimonious ad hominem attacks were propagated by those who purport to share the aforementioned goals, but feel repulsed by our "intransigent" sense of urgency. Some have even regurgitated Democrat talking points suggesting that Reagan would be labeled a RINO by the Tea Party.

These writers and commentators who supposedly share our ultimate goals for limited government, yet condemn our tactics and sense of urgency, are lacking a sober understanding of the severity of our current predicament in relation to Reagan's era.

As grim as the situation was at the time of Reagan's inauguration in 1981, it simply doesn't compare to the magnitude of our problems precipitated by the growth of the federal government, the insolvent debt, and rampant government dependency. Reagan came to power and fought for limited government in order to preclude the very eventuality that we are experiencing today. Today, in 2011, we are suffering under every pernicious effect of a tyrannical government; the magnitude to which Reagan did not experience, but presciently attempted to avert.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

3. The Liar, The Witch, and The Wardrobe: Five Lies about the Debt Limit told Over the Weekend by a Fraud, a Harpie, and an "Empty Suit"

The final straw for me was a syndicated columnist who compared conservatives' opposition to John Boehner's debt limit proposal to the murder ("fragging") of American officers by their own troops in Vietnam.

As it turns out, most of my ROTC class missed Vietnam by a year. But we spent four years enduring the physical assaults and (actual) spit of the "Barack Obamas" of our generation, plus the prospect of being assigned to some of the most dangerous jobs in the world and the reports of our fellow lieutenants who died when their own troops rolled grenades under the bunks.

We were surely far from perfect. But I didn't deserve to have students try to rip the uniform of the United States off my body. Our contemporaries, whatever their flaws, didn't deserve to be murdered. And I don't deserve, now, to have our fears treated with gleeful scorn by a woman whose greatest sacrifice for this country, I'm guessing, was breaking her heel on the way to the protest rally.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

4. The RedState Gathering

At the first RedState Gathering, a few people national audiences had not really heard of named Nikki Haley, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Michael Williams, and Ken Cucinnelli showed up.

Last year, we had a few more.

This year, we'll have Governor Rick Scott of Florida, Governor Nikki Haley of South Carolina, Governor Rick Perry of Texas, Senator Jim DeMint of South Carolina, Treasurer Don Stenberg of Nebraska, Rep. Adam Hasner of Florida, Texas Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams, and former Texas Solicitor General Ted Cruz.

And that's not all.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

5. Ex-Union Member Fights $200,000 Union Fine For Working Non-Union

Unions have rules. Union members who break those rules can be placed on trial by their union and, if found guilty, can be expelled or suspended from the union. They can also be fined, as Nathaniel Musser has learned the expensive way.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

6. The 22 Who Held the Line

Here are the 22 heros who defied their House leaders and opposed the Boehner plan.

Note that the South Carolina delegation comes out on tops. Its two senators, Jim DeMint and Lindsey Graham, also opposed it. It's something that South Carolina has more testicular fortitude than Texas.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

7. An Interesting Observation

As I wrap up what turned out to be 7 hours of radio and 3 of television, let me leave you with an interesting observation from a very wise conservative sage.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

8. A note to you disenchanted tea party activists

I'm getting a lot of emails from tea party members rather upset with members of Congress today.

The funniest story I've heard today from several people on the hill is that the House GOP held a budget "listening" session to learn how to message better for tea parties and independents. The House GOP leaders really thought that they had the policy right and just needed to work on the message — troubling in that this is exactly what the Democrats told themselves as they went down in flames in 2010.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

The RedState Gathering

At the first RedState Gathering, a few people national audiences had not really heard of named Nikki Haley, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Michael Williams, and Ken Cucinnelli showed up.

Last year, we had a few more.

This year, we'll have Governor Rick Scott of Florida, Governor Nikki Haley of South Carolina, Governor Rick Perry of Texas, Senator Jim DeMint of South Carolina, Treasurer Don Stenberg of Nebraska, Rep. Adam Hasner of Florida, Texas Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams, and former Texas Solicitor General Ted Cruz.

And that's not all.

With Governor Perry possibly running for President, the media is zeroing in on the RedState Gathering.

We're also going to show "The Undefeated."

American Majority is going to conduct some of the best grassroots training you'll ever experience.

And there are some actual, factual surprises in store too.

This is your last chance folks. Go to http://www.redstate.com/gathering to register.

The event is August 12 to August 14. I'll be rolling out the agenda starting this week at RedState.

I suspect you're going to want to be there.

See, We Told You So

Back in 1994, Rush Limbaugh wrote See I Told You So. From page 88 of the book:

[T]he cure for: a) the budget deficit = more taxes; b) unemployment = more taxes; c) recession = more taxes; d) environmental problems = more taxes; e) illiteracy = more taxes; f) L.A. riots = more taxes. It doesn't matter what the nature of the problem is.

This week, whether you listened to Rush, Sean, Mark, or even me filling in for Boortz, we've been telling you so. This whole farce in Washington is a way to get more tax revenue from you and despite public pronouncements from the Republicans that they were holding the line on tax revenue they were either (A) complicit behind the scenes or (B) going to get played.

We were right.

What we know about the pending deal is that the Democrats and Republicans are agreeing to a Deficit Commission. Despite the media spin — and the spin of some Republican sycophants — the deficit commission, which will be a super committee of the Congress, will have the power to come up with new tax revenue.

And if the Congress rejects the Commission's demands for new tax revenue, there will be a trigger that cuts both medicare funding and defense funding.

Except, the defense funding cuts will be much more massive than the medicare cuts. And the GOP, in addition to seeing defense cut, would be hacking off seniors right before an election.

In other words, Republican Leaders are asking their members to accept tax increases or massive defense cuts and senior anger right before the election. Oh, and the medicare cuts technically wouldn't come from beneficiaries, but from providers. Those same providers who'll just stop taking medicare patients.

It's not that the GOP got played so much as GOP leaders were collaborating on this. Boehner wanted a grand bargain and now he's going to get it along with tax increases.

But hey! At least we'll get a vote on a balanced budget amendment — one without a requirement for a super majority to raise taxes.

Interesting Nugget About John Boehner's Bill

Guess who wrote it?

The late-night jousting in the Senate followed a vote on House Speaker John A. Boehner's debt-limit measure, which would extend the Treasury's borrowing power until early next year and force another economy-rattling fistfight within a few months.

Drafted largely by aides to Reid and McConnell last weekend, the measure was originally designed to appeal to the more centrist Senate.

Everything we've gone through this week was elaborate theater to get us ultimately to an even worse conclusion. At least 22 Republicans didn't fall for it.

The 22 Who Held the Line

Here are the 22 heros who defied their House leaders and opposed the Boehner plan.

Note that the South Carolina delegation comes out on tops. It's two senators, Jim DeMint and Lindsey Graham, also opposed it. It's something that South Carolina has more testicular fortitude than Texas.

Amash (MI)

Bachmann (MN)

Broun (GA)

Chaffetz (UT)

Cravaack (MN)

DesJarlais (TN)

Duncan (SC)

Gowdy (SC)

Graves (GA)

Huelskamp (KS)

Johnson (IL)

Jordan (OH)

King (IA)

Latham (IA)

Mack (FL)

McClintock (CA)

Mulvaney (SC)

Paul (TX)

Scott (SC)

Southerland (FL)

Walsh (IL)

Wilson (SC)

Being behind the scenes on this, I have to say we also need better generals on the outside. Toward the end, the coalition that was "Cut, Cap, and Balance" began crumbling, with several of the big organizations including Let Freedom Ring and Club for Growth buckled to pressure.

Instead of being organizations that held the line on sound policy, they provided cover for congressmen to cop out to a bad deal that will come back to haunt the House GOP.

Seeing conservatives on the outside become veritable General McClellans was disappointing in and of itself.

You Know What Would Be Awesome?

The problem the GOP has now is that because of where John Boehner led the House, the GOP looks increasingly unwilling to act in a bipartisan way or compromise. Most people are missing the fact that raising the debt ceiling is the compromise, but that is beside the point.

Here's what the House and Senate GOP should do — box the Democrats in.

Hold a press conference and offer the Democrats a clean $2 trillion debt ceiling increase. Hell, make it a $4 trillion debt increase.

Then tell them in exchange they must choose between (A) a complete and total repeal of Obamacare or (B) S. J. Res. 10, the Balanced Budget Amendment with the spending limitation and taxpayer protection components.

The GOP has offered up 3 plans to none by Barack Obama.

Here's their final offer. Everything the Democrats want in exchange for either of two choices, with the Democrats picking their choice.

That'd be pretty awesome.

Oh, and both would be hugely popular with independent voters who want a BBA and who want Obamacare repealed even now.

An Interesting Observation

As I wrap up what turned out to be 7 hours of radio and 3 of television, let me leave you with an interesting observation from a very wise conservative sage:

John Boehner's flailing performance may actually have a silver lining to conservatives' advantage. When his plan and the end game blow up in the House Republicans' face as it surely will, a lot of the new conservatives who decided to get on the team, get their asses in line, and side with the Speaker will be permanently against him and for conservatism.

Let's not forget that one young congressmen stood up for the team and loyalty and voted for No Child Left Behind to help his President. Then when he realized he'd been betrayed and NCLB stank as bad as conservatives had said it would, Jim DeMint left his old ways and became the champion of the right.

Boehner should have remembered his history. Or at least Barry Jackson should have. It's part of his legacy.

Barry Jackson, for those who don't know, is John Boehner's Chief of Staff and was a key player in getting No Child Left Behind passed.