Erick Erickson's Blog, page 129

The Closing Argument: We Are Filthy Hobbitses

So now we have the closing arguments.

The Wall Street Journal calls conservatives hobbits. I'd point out that the hobbits won.

Bill Kristol calls conservatives "pro-Obama."

And now John Boehner tells Republicans to get their "asses in line."

To quote General McAuliffe, "NUTS"

Hold the line. When the Congressional Budget Office is saying that Harry Reid's plan actually cuts more money than John Boehner's even beyond budgetary gimmicks.

Hold the line. We can do better. We must do better. The future of the country depends on it.

But How Does Your Hand Improve?

The Kristol fans want to know how our hand improves if we reject the Boehner plan. First, it is worth pointing out what Bill Kristol noted back at the first part of July:

"It sounds as if it's heading towards a deal," Kristol said. "It's not a deal that I'm going to like I suspect, and think I it's going to be a bad deal for conservatives and Republicans but I think they're intimidated," Kristol said. "The president has been running around talking about corporate jets and the rich, and how the sky is going to fall unless Republicans cave. And I think they're getting ready to cave in a pretty big way on Sunday."

Basing it on what Republicans leaders have said publicly, Kristol forecast that defense spending cuts, tax increases and other cuts would be dressed up to be more than they really are in the end. And that would lead to a conservative revolt against Republicans.

"So great, we have a Republican House, and they are going to agree to the huge defense cuts, tax increases, phony spending cuts and increased debt," Kristol said. "I think there will be a huge rebellion among conservatives in the country if Republicans sign on to this deal."

That's pretty much what we're going to get. And it is going to come in the form of a super committee. If nothing else, holding out for scrapping the super committee to avoid massive tax hikes is a better plan.

I dare say that suddenly Boehner could get more support if he scrapped the super committee now.

But more so, good policy is good politics. This Boehner plan is terrible policy — made more so by the fact that it is the third GOP plan to no Democrat plans and the GOP is continuing to compromise with itself instead of the Democrats.

Lastly, it is not for these outside groups to govern. It's for them to say what is and is not conservative — to point to what the right thing is and let the elected guys decide how far away from true north to drift. When the GOP deviates from conservatism to lock in high growth rates of government, conservatism loses. And that is exactly what the Republicans are doing. Boehner's plan presumes the size and scope of the federal government will not go back to historic norms — norms that existed until Barack Obama became President.

Yes, I think the deal will improve. I think the deal will improve even if the only improvement is dropping the super committee. But more so, I think the GOP is being driven by fear and until they overcome that fear they will be in no position to negotiate with the Democrats. Their first step, however, is to stop negotiating with themselves. After all, as Kristol and others are so readily willing to point out — the GOP only controls one house of one branch of the federal government.

In Which Bill Kristol Decides To Play The Fool. Again.

For years Bill Kristol defended the excesses of the Bush Administration. Before that, he was a John McCain champion. His partner in crime is Fred Barnes who defended the rise of "big government conservatives."

And now, Bill Kristol thinks that conservatives who want smaller government are "pro-Obama" conservatives.

Nothing could be further from the truth, but Kristol really doesn't care. This is point scoring from a guy who really doesn't have much in common with a lot of the conservative movement.

Kristol wants to cut a deal because . . . well . . . because he likes sucking up to Republican leaders first of all. But also because in his cowardly abandon he cannot perceive how holding the line can force the Democrats to produce a better deal.

So this is the deal Bill Kristol wants — from a staffer on Capitol Hill who attended the briefings:

Fake caps that future Congresses can waive.
$1 billion in actual cuts.
A super committee with the power to raise taxes with virtually no way to stop it.
Eradication of the Bush tax cuts (Boehner's plan is premised on them going away)

This is not a plan any conservative should support. It really is fascinating how conservative groups are making passionate arguments for holding the line and people like Kristol are resorting to name calling.

As Mark Steyn notes at National Review

If the CBO's scoring is correct – that it reduces the 2012 deficit by just $1 billion – then the "cut" represents what the United States borrows every five hours and 20 minutes. In other words, in the time it takes to photocopy and distribute Boehner's "plan", the savings have all been borrowed back.

As for the rest, I'm philosophically opposed to "entitlements" because they strike at one of the most basic principles of representative government – that a parliament cannot bind its successor. But the same objection applies to jelly-spined legislators announcing grand plans for bazillions of savings years after their term of office has expired. Who knows what'll be happening in 2017? Maybe North Korea will accidentally nuke the South Sandwich Islands and we'll be expected to chip in for reconstruction.

Of course, I'm sure Bill Kristol thinks letting Obama raise the debt ceiling again next year and claim a bipartisan victory will somehow hurt Obama going into the election.

I'll keep my principles and fight, thank you very much.

It's All Too Odd

Consider that John Boehner and Harry Reid named their different legislation to raise the debt ceiling by the identical name.

Consider also that John Boehner and Harry Reid's legislation are virtually mirror images to each other — a fact that the rhetoric has obscured, but is in reality accurate.

Consider, in fact, that Boehner and Reid use the same language in various portions of their legislation.

Consider that John Boehner told Sean Hannity tax hikes could come out of his deficit commission despite earlier denials.

Consider also that in one of the key differing portions, John Boehner uses Mitch McConnell's gimmick of letting the President raise the debt ceiling on his own with merely a congressional vote of "disapproval" that the President can then veto. This is a gimmick embraced by Harry Reid.

Consider that John Boehner claimed actual cuts to the federal budget for 2012 would be just over $6 billion — that is for an entire year. The federal government spends $10 billion a day.

Consider that the Congressional Budget Office determined late last evening that the actual amount of cuts for 2012 would only be $1 billion for the whole year, or about 2.5 hours of federal government spending.

And then consider that the White House, after the Congressional Budget Office's determination, defended John Boehner on the White House website even after White House officials said they would recommend the President veto Boehner's plan — actually a different statement from the past. In the past, the White House said definitively that the President would veto the GOP's idea. Now, they are just saying it'll be recommended to the President.

Consider all these things and it seems the White House and Harry Reid are perfectly willing to let John Boehner pass his plan if he can get it out of the House. Their very hostility is designed to reassure Republicans. They'll sign it into law. Then they will blame the GOP when our credit rating is downgraded — something sure to happen with John Boehner's plan.

Finally, consider this — we are all being played. The conservatives are up front with what they want. The House, Senate, and White House seem to be working at cross purposes, but hiding some of their cards. The only group up front with what it wants — real spending cuts — is the Tea Party movement being portrayed even by the Wall Street Journal as fringe.

I'm left with the only inescapable conclusion one can derive from all of this. Republicans are being played for fools, will wind up with all of the blame and very few cuts and the size and scope of the federal government will continue to grow all thanks to John Boehner who is on his third plan continuing to compromise not with the Democrats, but with the Republicans.

Morning Briefing for July 27, 2011

RedState Morning Briefing

For July 27, 2011

Go to www.RedStateMB.com to get
the Morning Briefing every morning at no charge.

1. It's All Too Odd

2. In Defense of Holding the Line

3. The Boehner Plan: Phony Cuts, Slimy Procedures, Dangerous Ignorance

4. Boehner Grounds into a Double Play

5. The Speaker's Plan Is A Bad Bargain

6. Get on the line to hold the line

———————————————————————-

1. It's All Too Odd

Consider that John Boehner and Harry Reid named their different legislation to raise the debt ceiling by the identical name.

Consider also that John Boehner and Harry Reid's legislation are virtually mirror images to each other — a fact that the rhetoric has obscured, but is in reality accurate.

Consider, in fact, that Boehner and Reid use the same language in various portions of their legislation.

Consider that John Boehner told Sean Hannity tax hikes could come out of his deficit commission despite earlier denials.

Consider also that in one of the key differing portions, John Boehner uses Mitch McConnell's gimmick of letting the President raise the debt ceiling on his own with merely a congressional vote of "disapproval" that the President can then veto. This is a gimmick embraced by Harry Reid.

Consider that John Boehner claimed actual cuts to the federal budget for 2012 would be just over $6 billion — that is for an entire year. The federal government spends $10 billion a day.

Consider that the Congressional Budget Office determined late last evening that the actual amount of cuts for 2012 would only be $1 billion for the whole year, or about 2.5 hours of federal government spending.

And then consider that the White House, after the Congressional Budget Office's determination, defended John Boehner on the White House website even after White House officials said they would recommend the President veto Boehner's plan — actually a different statement from the past. In the past, the White House said definitively that the President would veto the GOP's idea. Now, they are just saying it'll be recommended to the President.

Consider all these things and it seems the White House and Harry Reid are perfectly willing to let John Boehner pass his plan if he can get it out of the House. Their very hostility is designed to reassure Republicans. They'll sign it into law. Then they will blame the GOP when our credit rating is downgraded — something sure to happen with John Boehner's plan.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

2. In Defense of Holding the Line

I'm getting beat to hell and back by conservatives for insisting the GOP hold the line on Cut, Cap, and Balance. Even here at RedState, I'm getting accused of "ideological intransigence." Yeah, here at RedState. There's a first time for everything.

People want a deal. People want John Boehner's deal. People are upset with me for not liking John Boehner's deal. People are telling me, "They only have one house, Erick. You can't expect them to not compromise. They control nothing."

I've said all along I expect a deal and a compromise. Here's the problem and I need you to understand this from perspective, whether you agree with me or not.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

3. The Boehner Plan: Phony Cuts, Slimy Procedures, Dangerous Ignorance

The main problems with the Boehner proposal are:

Most of the initial $1.2 trillion of discretionary cuts are (1) from defense, or (2) are phony, out-year, and easily avoided. The compensatory immediate $1 trillion increase in the debt limit is, on the other hand, very real.
Even worse, however, the notion of giving a Reid/Pelosi/McConnell/Boehner-appointed commission the power to devise non-filibusterable, unamendable tax increases (or, for that matter, gun control, taxpayer-funded abortion, forced unionism, or federalized same-sex marriage) in the second tranche is devastating.
And a guarantee of a losing vote on a balanced budget constitutional amendment doesn't get you anywhere.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

4. Boehner Grounds into a Double Play

Late yesterday, the CBO reaffirmed all of our concerns with Speaker Boehner's Budget Control Act of 2011 – plus interest (pun intended).

We have asserted ad nauseam that any proposed budget plan that fails to countermand the current prodigal spending levels, including the modestly reduced spending levels of 2011, is not worth the paper it is printed on. The CBO estimates that Boehner's $1.2 trillion in discretionary spending cuts will only save us $850 billion over ten years. This means that Obama's credit card increase will be higher than the concurrent spending cuts, thus voiding the promise of the dollar-for-dollar agreement. Moreover, the CBO estimates that all the cuts will be backloaded, as the estimated savings for next year – the only enforceable year – will be a negligible $1 billion! It turns out that an extra $4 billion in mandatory spending for Pell Grants will ostensibly wipe out any savings from the paltry discretionary cuts.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

5. The Speaker's Plan Is A Bad Bargain

Unlike several of my colleagues, I find there is a lot to like in the plan put forward yesterday by Speaker Boehner.

I like the idea of a smaller increase in the debt ceiling to give time and a sense of urgency to work out some very difficult problems that can't be solved in the short term.

I like the idea of this debate taking place again during the course of the 2012 election campaign as a way to put our candidates at all levels on the record in favor of fiscal sanity.

I like the idea of statutory caps on spending though, having lived through the era of the Gramm-Rudman-Hollings Deficit Reduction Act and the Concord Coalition, I'm not terribly sanguine about any statutory measure that doesn't involve federal marshals and congressmen spending time in jail for failure to comply. Just remember, there is statutory requirement that the Senate pass an annual budget.

What is unthinkable, in my view, is this bastardized "joint committee."

Please click here for the rest of the post.

6. Get on the line to hold the line

You can go to http://www.redstate.com/action to bypass the congressional switchboard and get the direct dial to your Congressman.

Tell them to hold the line on Cut, Cap, and Balance.

A host of conservative organizations are coming out against Boehner's plan because, among other things, it only cuts $6 to $7 billion and punts major reform to a commission of 12 that will only need 7 votes to raise taxes.

Call your congressmen and senators and tell them to hold the freaking line.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

Bringing You Up to Speed #EERS

Yes, I was on the radio for 4.5 hours this morning. And I'm going to be back on the radio at 7:05 p.m. ET tonight for 3 more hours. I'll be bringing you up to speed on the latest about John Boehner's plan and the Congressional Budget Office score that shows it will only cut $1 billion in 2012. Keep in mind that the federal government spends $10 billion a day.

You can listen live by clicking right here and call in at 1-800-WSB-TALK.

Consider this an open thread.

In Defense of Holding the Line

I'm getting beat to hell and back by conservatives for insisting the GOP hold the line on Cut, Cap, and Balance. Even here at RedState, I'm getting accused of "ideological intransigence." Yeah, here at RedState. There's a first time for everything.

People want a deal. People want John Boehner's deal. People are upset with me for not liking John Boehner's deal. People are telling me, "They only have one house, Erick. You can't expect them to not compromise. They control nothing."

I've said all along I expect a deal and a compromise. Here's the problem and I need you to understand this from perspective, whether you agree with me or not.

See, I worked to send people to Washington, DC to solve problems, to make things right, to fix the things that were broken, and to send power back to the states. They are not doing that.

We all saw Democrats go to Washington in 2008 and take the whole thing. They controlled everything and they made everything worse. They passed a stimulus bill that killed or ruined hundreds of thousands of jobs in the private sector while growing the government. They increased dependency on the federal government. And then they passed Obamacare and socialized American healthcare. But it doesn't fully take effect until 2014. We saw Democrats willing to lose their positions to lurch the nation left.

So we sent to Washington an army of conservatives to Washington to defund Obamacare and stop the White House. And now they've gotten there and have refused to fight. They promised and put in writing that they'd cut $100 billion from the federal government budget in 2011 and they ultimately cut only $38 billion. The Congressional Budget Office, when it was done scoring it, said they really were only cutting about $500 million and it would cost more money that it was worth it to actually cut those dollars.

So they said, "But we"ll stand firm on the debt ceiling. We'll hold the line." Everybody gave them a pass and said, "Okay, hold the line on the debt ceiling."

Now here we are the week before the deadline. John Boehner laments they should have done it sooner, but he refused to do it sooner. The Speaker has prevented the Republicans from submitting legislation to ensure we would not default so that he would have leverage over his own members to force them to take a deal. And now they are dealing.What is their deal?

Their deal creates another committee to look at spending — the 18th in the past 30 years. These 18 committees have never done anything except raise taxes. Their spending cuts are put off a decade and future congresses ignore them.

Boehner's spending caps are easily waived as they'll be rules, not laws. And they punt.

A lot of you are emailing and getting on twitter saying to take the deal. Take the compromise. Why should we compromise? That's what we always do. Even when in the majority we compromise. The Democrats didn't compromise on healthcare. But you people want to compromise. Republicans, whether in the majority or minority, are always compromising in favor of bigger government and imaginary spending cuts.

To make matters worse, why the hell are the Republicans the ones coming up with the plans if they only control one house of one branch of the federal government? Why are they doing it? We're on the third damn plan. They aren't even compromising with the Democrats. They are compromising with themselves.

The Democrats are holding their line. The GOP is splitting conservatives. The Democrats are saying "Raise the debt ceiling. Don't cut anything." And Boehner is saying okay and putting in cuts that take affect in year eight of ten so none of them will be around to be held accountable. Why?

The GOP came up with Paul Ryan's plan. They passed it. They took bullets. The GOP put him in a witness protection program and dropped it like a hot potato.

So then the GOP passed Cut, Cap, and Balance and the Democrats beat them up and again accused the GOP of killing grandma. The leadership was lukewarm to it and never fought for it. And immediately after voting for it, the leadership said, "Now, let's move on to the third plan."

Are these all just symbolic votes? If so, I'd rather some substance. This symbolism is getting the GOP killed with nothing to show for it.

Why the hell are we on our third plan when the Democrats haven't even come up with one plan? They haven't even passed a budget in over 800 days. We're in this mess because Harry Reid, in December of 2010, refused the raise the debt ceiling so the GOP could own the problem. The GOP fell into the trap with eyes wide open.

And the Republicans are falling for it yet again.

And now I'm being accused of thinking this is all a game even by long time RedState readers. I do not think this is all a game.

I know the credit rating is going to be downgraded and I don't want it to happen. You people who want the deal are so worked up in emotion that you are ignoring all the facts. Here are the facts:

1. S&P says we need a deal of at least $4 trillion in cuts to avoid a credit rating drop.

2. Neither Boehner nor Reid get us there.

3. The only plan that gets us there is Cut, Cap, and Balance and the GOP is running away from it as fast as they can. The GOP already passed it and it just four votes shy of a majority in the Senate.

No one wants to fight. "No, we've already had that vote. It can't pass the Senate," they say.

There will be no default on August 2nd. We know it will not happen. How do we know? Because we have more money coming in each month than is needed to pay principle and interest on our national debt. And we have had multiple prior occasions where we have gone passed the deadline and the world did not suddenly end. It is all political rhetoric. Shame on you for succumbing to fear.

Barack Obama does not want to be remembered as the President on whose watch the nation defaulted. His leverage goes away on August 3rd and the GOP holds all the cards. We won't default. We can improve our negotiating position.

The GOP could hold the line. And because they won't hold the line, they are tanking our credit behind a bunch of smoke and mirrors. If the Democrats blame the GOP when the credit rating drops, the GOP will damn well deserve the blame if they stick with Boehner's plan.

They could at least fight to turn the tide. They could at least hold the line.

Get on the line to hold the line

You can go to http://www.redstate.com/action to bypass the congressional switchboard and get the direct dial to your Congressman.

Tell them to hold the line on Cut, Cap, and Balance.

A host of conservative organizations are coming out against Boehner's plan because, among other things, it only cuts $6 to $7 billion and punts major reform to a commission of 12 that will only need 7 votes to raise taxes.

Call your congressmen and senators and tell them to hold the freaking line.

Punt

I honestly cannot tell you how disgusted I am with the House Republicans today.

They will yet again pass off their responsibility to a committee that will do nothing. We know it will do nothing because we have had 17 of these committees come before this one and the debt has gone up from $1 trillion to $14 trillion.

Boehner's plan, despite what you are hearing, does not prevent this committee from raising taxes. In fact, it contemplates that the committee might raise taxes.

And we will lose our credit rating. The loss of our credit rating will be more economically devastating that a technical default.

The GOP will get blamed for it, but hey! at least the economy will stay in the tank next year in to hurt Obama. Small consolation to our small businesses and the many Americans hurting. Great job Republicans!

This is pathetic.

Have I mentioned they've never even made a dent in Obamacare — the costs of which are still not fully on the books?

7.5 Hours on Radio Again Today

I'm going to be on the radio for 8 hours today — 4.5 for Neal Boortz's show and 3 for mine this evening. It will be a long day of talking and you can listen to it all by clicking right here.

You can also call in at 1-877-310-2100 for Neal's show and this evening for mine you can call in at 1-800-WSB-TALK.

I'll be on 8:30 a.m. to 1:00 p.m. ET today and again this evening from 7pm to 10pm ET.

Consider this an open thread.