Erick Erickson's Blog, page 133

Morning Briefing for July 22, 2011

RedState Morning Briefing

For July 22, 2011

Go to www.RedStateMB.com to get
the Morning Briefing every morning at no charge.

1. The Politics of Dopes

2. How John Boehner Might Keep Obamacare Around Forever

3. White House and Congressional Leaders Resort to Fearmongering

4. There Are No Spending Cuts Without Downsizing Government

5. The obvious response to this would be to outlaw the American flag

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1. The Politics of Dopes

Here is the way things work in Washington.

One group in Congress comes up with a bold plan to save the country. Let's call it Cut, Cap, and Balance.

Everyone else sets out to undermine their plan. Heck, most of the rest of Congress doesn't have a plan at all — they just want to dump on the group that comes up with the plan.

Then, when the group with the plan gets close to a vote and it looks like it is going to pass, the naysayers come out with their own plan. Everyone, leadership included, says nice things about it and they all hope the group with the plan to save the country sees its momentum sucked away.

But on occasion the group with the plan succeeds in getting not just a vote, but passage.

So the plan goes to the Senate, it doesn't make it past a filibuster, and all the people who'd been piling on and trying to undermine the group says, "Well, see, you failed. Let's do our idea now."

Friends, that is how Washington works. That is how Washington has gotten us $14 trillion in debt.

See, the fault ultimately lies with the first group. "What?" you say. "But they came up with the plan. How can it be their fault?"

Please click here for the rest of the post.

2. How John Boehner Might Keep Obamacare Around Forever

If the New York Times reports tonight are true, John Boehner may just be destroying any chance the Supreme Court would get rid of Obamacare and making it even more likely Obamacare will never be repealed.

Talk about negotiating with yourself. If Boehner gets what he wants — and Obama might just give it to him with enough rope to hang himself — the nation really is screwed.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

3. White House and Congressional Leaders Resort to Fearmongering

If you've seen the recent Harry Potter or watched any of a host of exorcism movies, you know that right before the demon dies, he lashes out most brutally and fearfully to try to get you to give up.

We're seeing the demon of out of control government lashing out in spectacular fashion now before House Republicans kill it.

In one last spectacular bout, the White House and Congressional leaders are summoning Standards & Poor to Congress to scare the beejezus out of House Republican Freshman. They are bringing in the Grim Reaper to proclaim death if a deal is not reached.

House Republicans should first note that S&P did not see the financial crisis come and also note that the White House and Congressional leaders did the exact same thing on TARP.

Then House Republicans need to open their eyes, laugh at death, and finish the exorcism.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

4. There Are No Spending Cuts Without Downsizing Government

Republicans and conservatives have correctly asserted that the federal government doesn't have a revenue problem; it has a spending problem. However, a more trenchant summation of our public policy vices would go something like this: we don't have a spending problem, per se; we have a big government problem.

While such a characterization might sound redundant, the Orwellian language used to describe spending cuts throughout the debt ceiling debate exposes a huge bifurcation between "spending cuts" and government reduction. The very same politicians who increased the debt $3.7 trillion in just two and a half years, and have condemned us to a future trajectory of $10 trillion more over the next ten years, are now tossing out spending cut bids to the tune of trillions, as if we were sitting at a Barney Frank foreclosure auction. Obama and the Democrats promote numbers like $4 trillion in cuts; no, $6 trillion; the Gangters of Six are staking their claim on $3.7 trillion. Finally, we are all told that, at the very least, there is consensus around $1.5 trillion in cuts from the Biden bunch.

So how can the very people who increased spending by trillions just last year suddenly exhibit such gaiety in cutting spending?

Please click here for the rest of the post.

5. The obvious response to this would be to outlaw the American flag

Or at least that would be the response I would expect from the Left.

Yesterday the journal Psychological Science published a paper (abstract here, original here*) that demonstrates:

"the mere sight of the American flag can subtly shift their political views… towards Republicanism. It's an effect that holds in both Democrats and Republicans, it affects actual votes, and it lasts for at least 8 months."

This is a fascinating finding in and of itself, but even more so considering the other recent study that showed

"that July 4th parades energize only Republicans, turn kids into Republicans, and help to boost the GOP turnout of adults on Election Day."

So apparently, patriotism is a Republican thing. (Go ahead now, lefties, get all frothed up).

Please click here for the rest of the post.

Steven Crowder on the Bachmann Hate and Rape Jokes

How John Boehner Might Keep Obamacare Around Forever

If the New York Times reports tonight are true, John Boehner may just be destroying any chance the Supreme Court would get rid of Obamacare and making it even more likely Obamacare will never be repealed.

Talk about negotiating with yourself. If Boehner gets what he wants — and Obama might just give it to him with enough rope to hang himself — the nation really is screwed.

Here's the relevant part of the New York Times story:

But the president and Mr. Boehner were moving ahead with their plan, aides said, trying to agree on matters like how much new revenue would be raised, how much would go to deficit reduction, how much to lower tax rates and, perhaps most critical, how to enforce the requirement for new tax revenue through painful consequences for both parties should they be unable to overhaul the tax code in 2012.

The White House wants a trigger that would raise taxes on the wealthy; Mr. Boehner wants the potential penalty for inaction to include repeal of the Obama health care law's mandate that all individuals purchase health insurance after 2014.

Here's why this is important.

Headed to the Supreme Court are a volley of lawsuits questioning the constitutionality of the individual mandate. One of those cases ruled that all of Obamacare is unconstitutional because the individual mandate is.

If John Boehner gets that trigger, what do you think the odds are that the Democrats, before the Supreme Court can rule, triggers the trigger. They'd thereby save Obamacare by getting rid of the individual mandate and rendering a Supreme Court decision moot.

Now, that's not to say I think the Supreme Court will throw out Obamacare. It all comes down to Anthony Kennedy. But I sure as heck don't think we should give the Democrats a chance to preclude a Supreme Court decision. And given the chance, I suspect they'd take it.

Likewise, Republicans have long maintained that Obamacare must be fully repealed, not "fixed." Boehner's strategy would directly undermine that.

House Republicans were sent to Washington to repeal Obamacare and hold the line on spending. They've failed at the first, failed at the second, and now seem to be letting the Speaker embrace and expand that failure.

White House and Congressional Leaders Resort to Fearmongering

If you've seen the recent Harry Potter or watched any of a host of exorcism movies, you know that right before the demon dies, he lashes out most brutally and fearfully to try to get you to give up.

We're seeing the demon of out of control government lashing out in spectacular fashion now before House Republicans kill it.

In one last spectacular bout, the White House and Congressional leaders are summoning Standards & Poor to Congress to scare the beejezus out of House Republican Freshman. They are bringing in the Grim Reaper to proclaim death if a deal is not reached.

House Republicans should first note that S&P did not see the financial crisis come and also note that the White House and Congressional leaders did the exact same thing on TARP.

Then House Republicans need to open their eyes, laugh at death, and finish the exorcism.

They are being asked by their leadership and the White House to embrace one of two poisons:

The first poison, McConnell's Pontius Pilate Act, would let the President drive up debt by $2 trillion without any cuts.

The second poison, the Gang of 6′s Gangrene, would drive up debt by $2 trillion, not make cuts of $3.5 trillion for ten years and even then depend on subsequent Congresses actually agreeing to those cuts, and also foist on the American public the largest tax hike in American history while being dishonest enough to call it a tax cut.

Poison kills. And either of these poisons, despite what the S&P or any politician may say, will kill the long term prospects of this Republic being financially solvent.

Why?

Because the House GOP is performing an exorcism on government spending. It has the only plan that can pass by August 2, 2011, that cuts spending, caps future spending, and balances the budget. It has the only long term plan that meets the credit reporting agencies' demands without relying on future agreements to do things Congress has never had the will do to.

The Senate and White House do not want to stop spending. They do not want to be restrained.

So they'll bring in the S&P, claim disaster, beg for live, and hope the GOP in the House gives up the fight and stops the exorcism before the demon is driven out.

House Republicans: Hold the freaking line. They are trying to scare the crap out of you to prevent you from saving the Republic. Do you really believe the same people and the same bipartisan deals that got us to $14 trillion in debt will somehow get us out of it?

Hold the line.

The Horserace for July 21, 2011

IA Caucus: Feb. 6, 2012

NH Primary: Feb. 14, 2012 (expected)

SC Primary: TBD

NV Caucus: Feb. 18, 2012

For all intents and purposes, from here on out, we have to presume Rick Perry is a candidate for the Presidency of the United States until he declares otherwise. I think it is safe to conclude he's in.

As Perry rises, Pawlenty falls as does Bachmann. Cain implodes. Romney stagnates. And then there's the funny tale of Jon Huntsman. It kind of makes me chuckle. There's a lot to get into this week in the horserace for the White House.

Michele Bachmann

Michele Bachmann is down again this week.

Let's be clear. I don't think the headache story is a big deal. I don't think it really hurts Bachmann. The story that hurts Bachmann though is that some of her former staffers are a brood of vipers out to get her. I have heard many horror stories myself, but most of what we're getting now is designed specifically to undermine Bachmann as she continues to gain major momentum. She raised $2 million in a day and that spooked a lot of people.

What we are seeing is what I predicted. The pile on has begun. Given her press operations thus far, I think Bachmann is going to have a tough time staying ahead.

More troubling for Bachmann, she signed the cut, cap, and balance pledge then voted against the related legislation. A number of outside conservative groups who were moving her way now tell me they have pulled back. Her rationale for voting against Cut, Cap, and Balance does not compute after signing the pledge.

Herman Cain

Herman Cain could have been an awesome candidate. He is a turn around artist. You eat at Burger King because Herman Cain brought it back from the brink. Same with Godfathers. He could have been the outsider's Mitt Romney with a real record of job growth.

Instead, Cain became the guy who hates Muslims. And now that's all the press wants to talk about. I don't know if Cain is just not listening to his advisers or if his advisers are misleading him. But I think the first step for him to turn around his campaign is to fire Mark Block, his top adviser. He needs a dramatic overhaul to prove he is serious and not fringe.

A lot of variables outside of Herman's control must break his way for him to be viable. He can influence them, but not control them. Right now, they are breaking against him in part because of the influence he is exerting on the variables. He has no path to victory and no more shot at even the Vice Presidency as things are going right now.

Newt Gingrich

Newt Gingrich's campaign is over. He came out against the McConnell "Pontius Pilate Act", but was not able to get traction from it. I'm writing off Gingrich's campaign. When the Speaker of the House who led the GOP through the last major government shutdown is unable to get media attention as Washington is now on the verge of a shutdown, he's yesterday's news.

Jon Huntsman

Jon Huntsman peaked on the day in January Newsweek reported he might be running. Even the day he announced got less press. He has been unable to make headway. Yes, there is plenty of time, but the oxygen has been sucked out of the room.

Even the media that turned him into a darling has started ignoring him. Foreign policy is not the major issue. His backing Obama's stimulus in 2009 hurts him with the base. Heck, he's even losing Utah — a state in which he served two terms as Governor.

He can turn it around, but it will be very hard to do. And just today comes word his campaign manager is out. Things are not looking good. Whew!

Thaddeus McCotter

I see no reason to keep McCotter on this list unless something changes in the next week.

Sarah Palin

Last week I reported that people close to Palin are beginning to change their mind and think she might run. Thus far, there have been no signs that she actually is running and I maintain that she is not going to run. I think Rick Perry getting in keeps Palin out, unless she's getting in to run interference for Perry.

Ron Paul

Ron Paul will not be the nominee. However, a lot of conservatives are giving Paul, unlike Bachmann, a pass on opposing Cut, Cap, and Balance because he did not sign the CCB pledge and previously pledged to never raise the debt ceiling. It will not, however, help him.

Tim Pawlenty

With Rick Perry presumably getting in, I think the game is almost over for Pawlenty. He did everything right. His polling is headed in the right direction. He has gotten key support. But the slow and steady pace is about to get overshadowed.

However, we should be mindful that Pawlenty is boots on the ground in Iowa and is largely camped out there. He could surprise in a big way and we shouldn't count him out. It's great to have a national perspective on this, but we shouldn't be ignorant of what is happening on the ground. And in Iowa, folks tell me that Pawlenty is being seen plenty. The same people, however, tell me they feel like the oxygen is being sucked out of the room by Bachmann and the anticipation of a Perry run.

Rick Perry

From here on on, we treat Perry as a candidate. News reports say Perry is meeting with donors and meeting with briefers on national issues. He has a ready supply of funders at his call based on his very successful tenure as head of the Republican Governors Association.

When Perry gets in — it is no longer an if in my book — Bachmann goes down in the polls, Pawlenty's struggles increase, Gingrich gets out, and Cain is toast. But polling also shows Perry takes votes from Mitt Romney, which must have Governor Romney troubled.

Perry will, immediately upon entry, be the subject of withering attacks he'll have to survive. I suspect he'll be able to do it.

Mitt Romney

The most important issue of the day is the debt ceiling and Mitt Romney is not leading on it as the presumed frontrunner for the GOP. He has played it too safe and refused to be out there aggressively. While Rick Perry is authoring op-eds with Nikki Haley on cut, cap, and balance, Mitt Romney is largely crickets.

Having played it too safe and held on to a lead, I think Romney is going to get hurt. He has a definitely ceiling in support and as other candidates start dropping out, I think they'll gravitate to others, not Romney.

Rick Santorum

This will be Rick Santorum's last appearance in the Horserace. I now consider him a former candidate.

When The Boys In Leadership Flee, Will The Freedom Fighters in the House Hold the Line?

Tuesday night felt pretty good, didn't it? The House GOP, joined by five Democrats, voted for Cut, Cap, and Balance. Finally, the House led on solid reform to turn the tide. Senators got active quickly to undermine the effort and still the House held the line.

Great, wasn't it? The Gang of 234 stood for freedom and, as an added bonus, gave a wonderful middle finger to the Gang of 6 and its plan to raise taxes more than any other Congress in the history of the Republic all while pretending its offering up tax cuts.

All the while, even as members of the House were voting, the Republican Leaders in the House were conspiring against House members to cut their legs out from under them.

Reporters are starting to whisper to each other and some are even starting to write about it. John Boehner and Eric Cantor are ready to give up. The vote was just for show. They think because Cut, Cap, and Balance won't pass the Senate, it is time to embrace either MItch McConnell or Gang of Six. It's sad that House leaders want their own to pick their poison, Pontius Pilate or Gangrene. Fellas, if you haven't noticed, poison kills you.

But it's not just that. House Leaders want to also throw in a few smoke and mirrors. They want a "short term deal". Have we not punted enough? Have we not kicked the can down the road enough? We don't need a short term deal. We don't need to waiver. We don't need to falter. We don't need to fail. We need to hold the freaking line. We've got a plan, folks. Respect the plan.

When the boys in leadership run off the battlefield, will the freedom fighters in the House hold the line?

We've seen this before. The House leaders rallied the troops to vote for Paul Ryan's plan and then ran from it as far as possible. Heck, they even sent Paul Ryan into the witness protection program during the debt ceiling fight.

You House guys were getting shot up and leadership was hiding or trying to cut deals behind your back. That's apparently the nature of Republican Leadership.

But this all begs a question — having now stood on principle, having held the line, having set out a vision for America that doesn't bankrupt us, will you hold still that line?

The Senate is going to push a vote on Saturday for your legislation. Then your leaders in the House and the guys in the Senate will say, "See?! Your plan can't pass. Do it our way." Why should you, though, who held the line give deference to them?

I think more and more you might need to consider something a bit radical to the good government types in Washington — hold the line and don't take the deal.

For the next few weeks, they will bully you, flog you, scare you, and scare your constituents. Hold fast. The same people who have gotten us into this mess want you to believe they will now get us out of this mess.

Hold fast. Hold fast. As Allen West would say — steadfast and loyal. Your leadership won't be. But now is your time to lead. Now is your time to save the country. Don't be afraid of deadlines. Be afraid of selling out the country with a bad deal just for the sake of a deal.

On August 2nd, you hold all the cards.

Morning Briefing for June 21, 2011

RedState Morning Briefing

For July 21, 2011

Go to www.RedStateMB.com to get
the Morning Briefing every morning at no charge.

1. When The Boys In Leadership Flee, Will The Freedom Fighters in the House Hold the Line?

2. Thirty Problems with the "Gang of Six" Proposal

3. Eric Holder's Banana Republic Style Attack on Rupert Murdoch and News Corp

4. Twitter Kills the Most Important State Level Conservative Group in the Country

5. The Politico's True Colors

———————————————————————-

1. When The Boys In Leadership Flee, Will The Freedom Fighters in the House Hold the Line?

Tuesday night felt pretty good, didn't it? The House GOP, joined by five Democrats, voted for Cut, Cap, and Balance. Finally, the House led on solid reform to turn the tide. Senators got active quickly to undermine the effort and still the House held the line.

Great, wasn't it? The Gang of 234 stood for freedom and, as an added bonus, gave a wonderful middle finger to the Gang of 6 and its plan to raise taxes more than any other Congress in the history of the Republic all while pretending its offering up tax cuts.

All the while, even as members of the House were voting, the Republican Leaders in the House were conspiring against House members to cut their legs out from under them.

Reporters are starting to whisper to each other and some are even starting to write about it. John Boehner and Eric Cantor are ready to give up. The vote was just for show. They think because Cut, Cap, and Balance won't pass the Senate, it is time to embrace either MItch McConnell or Gang of Six. It's sad that House leaders want their own to pick their poison, Pontius Pilate or Gangrene. Fellas, if you haven't noticed, poison kills you.

But it's not just that. House Leaders want to also throw in a few smoke and mirrors. They want a "short term deal". Have we not punted enough? Have we not kicked the can down the road enough? We don't need a short term deal. We don't need to waiver. We don't need to falter. We don't need to fail. We need to hold the freaking line. We've got a plan, folks. Respect the plan.

When the boys in leadership run off the battlefield, will the freedom fighters in the House hold the line?

Please click here for the rest of the post.

2. Thirty Problems with the "Gang of Six" Proposal

Analyzing the six-page "Gang of Six" proposal for rewriting the federal budget is like measuring a bucket of water by holding the water in your hands.

Having said this, it looks like Coburn, Crapo, and Chambliss got their clocks cleaned.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

3. Eric Holder's Banana Republic Style Attack on Rupert Murdoch and News Corp

Rupert and James Murdoch were a great tag team yesterday before the Parliamentary inquiry. In fact, I dare say the pie attack coupled with Mrs. Murdoch's response lent sympathy toward the Murdoch clan and ultimately helped Rupert Murdoch take the upper hand in the hearings.

But in this country, Media Matters, the left in general, and the Obama Administration are savoring the possible destruction of News Corp, which they view as an enemy.

It's both sad and funny that the Obama Administration and Democrats are considering stretching the U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act relating to bribing foreign officials to try to kill off one of the handful of major news organizations not giving Obama a free, near propagandistic ride like MSNBC does.

But what's so hilariously hypocritical about all of this comes down to Eric Holder and bananas. Nope, not kidding.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

4. Twitter Kills the Most Important State Level Conservative Group in the Country

I have long considered Empower Texans to be the most important and effective state level conservative grassroots organization in the country. These people are not just respected in Texas; they are feared. It is an awesome thing to behold.

Michael Quinn Sullivan and company do excellent work educating Texans on the men who go to Austin claiming to be conservatives only to turn left out of the eyes of their constituents.

And they use Twitter as part of their communication strategy. In fact, twitter is a key component of their outreach. Or at least it was.

Today, Twitter not only shut down the Empower Texans twitter feed, but it also shut down the twitter feeds of every individual who works for Empower Texans.

Twitter is a private organization. It can do what it wants. But I am very troubled that it did so without explanation and without anyone for Empower Texans to contact.

If this was an orchestrated effort on the part of others to flag Empower Texans as a spam account such that Twitter's computer system would automatically can it, Twitter has a serious security problem.

It was a man made decision, Twitter has even bigger problems.

Either way, it needs to fix this.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

5. The Politico's True Colors

The Politico has been losing more and more good writers of late and, correspondingly, has been more and more prone to run Democrat talking points in their articles.

It's becoming more apparent why the Politico is showing its Democrat colors and becoming more Huffington Post like.

Let's review:

John Harris is married to either the present or former head of NARAL in Virginia.

Jonathan Allen used to work for Debbie Wasserman Schultz.

And now Andy Barr is leaving to go work for the Democratic Party. So, in other words, he can't even hide behind the excuse that he has a personal relationship with person X. Noooo . . . he's going to shill for the party.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

Twitter Kills the Most Important State Level Conservative Group in the Country

I have long considered Empower Texans to be the most important and effective state level conservative grassroots organization in the country. These people are not just respected in Texas; they are feared. It is an awesome thing to behold.

Michael Quinn Sullivan and company do excellent work educating Texans on the men who go to Austin claiming to be conservatives only to turn left out of the eyes of their constituents.

And they use Twitter as part of their communication strategy. In fact, twitter is a key component of their outreach. Or at least it was.

Today, Twitter not only shut down the Empower Texans twitter feed, but it also shut down the twitter feeds of every individual who works for Empower Texans.

Twitter is a private organization. It can do what it wants. But I am very troubled that it did so without explanation and without anyone for Empower Texans to contact.

If this was an orchestrated effort on the part of others to flag Empower Texans as a spam account such that Twitter's computer system would automatically can it, Twitter has a serious security problem.

It was a man made decision, Twitter has even bigger problems.

Either way, it needs to fix this.

The Politico's True Colors

The Politico has been losing more and more good writers of late and, correspondingly, has been more and more prone to run Democrat talking points in their articles.

It's becoming more apparent why the Politico is showing its Democrat colors and becoming more Huffington Post like.

Let's review:

John Harris is married to either the present or former head of NARAL in Virginia.

Jonathan Allen used to work for Debbie Wasserman Schultz.

And now Andy Barr is leaving to go work for the Democratic Party. So, in other words, he can't even hide behind the excuse that he has a personal relationship with person X. Noooo . . . he's going to shill for the party.

Let's just keep this in perspective then. The Politico is no different from other newspapers, but its staff seems to bounce a whole lot more freely between the paper and the Democratic Party.

The Horserace #EERS

Tonight on the Erick Erickson Show, we're going to spend a lot of time on the horserace for the White House. You can listen live by clicking here and call in at 1-800-WSB-TALK.

Consider this an open thread.