Erick Erickson's Blog, page 135

In Which We Learn Reid Ribble Isn't One Of Us

The New York Times has an interesting profile of House Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy — the man who will someday probably gut Eric Cantor's naked ambitions. For all the talk about a Boehner v. Cantor rivalry, reporters should keep their eyes on the Cantor v. McCarthy relationship.

In any event, there is this interesting nugget about McCarthy rewarding House Republicans who toe the party line, even when it means selling out conservatives:

Even McCarthy's light touch can send a signal of reproach or reward. Last month, the entire G.O.P. House conference traveled to the White House to meet with the president. After Obama's remarks, McCarthy, Boehner and the other leaders each asked him a question. Then one question came from a pre selected freshman. It was Reid Ribble, a former roofing contractor from Wisconsin. McCarthy had heard Ribble tell a story over dinner about a seemingly absurd regulation forbidding laborers from drinking water out of a plastic bottle while up on a roof — necessitating that they make frequent trips up and down the ladder, where accidents most often occur. The whip loved it and pushed for Ribble to have the chance to address the president.

There was, however, something else for the majority whip to love about Reid Ribble: he had never crossed the G.O.P. leadership on anything important. There was not a chance that leadership would award this moment to someone like Justin Amash, the only freshman to vote against all four of the continuing resolutions; or to Allen West, who in a press release expressed "disappointment in my own leadership" over a financing bill that appeared to be using U.S. troops as a political pawn; or to Raúl Labrador, who in a closed-door conference accused Boehner of "abandoning" conservatives. They and other dissidents are, of course, perfectly free to visit on their own with the president at the White House anytime they wish — if they can.

Reid Ribble — party first.

The Rise of the Third Party

I have long criticized the calls of many disaffected conservatives for a third party and I maintain that position. The closest I have come to calling for a third party is to encourage tea party activists to take over the GOP from within.

External third parties are not, in my mind, a solution to anything, but a great enabler of Democrats.

Notwithstanding my opinion, I believe the GOP, should it adopt Mitch McConnell's Pontius Pilate Act, will be sowing the seeds of its own destruction.

In short, a vote for McConnell's Pontius Pilate Act will cause a serious third party problem for the GOP. And we're already seeing signs of it.The best recent example is in New York. The Democrats fielded a "tea party" candidate and many disaffected voters voted for that guy as a protest vote. Consequently, even with all the other problems in the race, Democrats were able to capitalize on discord within the GOP — discord and distrust the GOP could not shake.

The McConnell Pontius Pilate Act is a clever way to kick the can down the road with McConnell gambling that he can become Senate Majority Leader and possibly, just possibly, have a Republican President in the White House.

The problem is the GOP, with McConnell in charge, showed no propensity to solve the problem the last time the GOP had all the power.

More so, voters who sent Republicans to Washington in 2010 sent them there to do two things: (1) get rid of Obamacare and (2) hold the line on federal spending — the first of which they have failed at spectacularly.

In Washington, McConnell is being greeted as a hero. In the heartland, he is viewed as one of those Washington politicians who have gotten too comfortable to make tough decisions. Tea Party activists see the McConnell Pontius Pilate Act as an example of everything wrong with Washington.

The debt will go up. Another commission to be ignored will be created. Cuts will come from growth rate of programs and accounting gimmicks, not actual cuts.

The politicos within the Republican Party who have taken up residence in Washington have lost touch with their constituents. The tea party activists are angry. No amount of sleeping on their office couches can rehabilitate a Republican Party that keeps insisting on driving up debt without significant cuts in spending.

If the House and Senate GOP pushes McConnell's plan, many of the activists who helped the GOP in 2010 will be helping a third party in 2012. It'll hurt the GOP's Presidential candidate. It'll hurt the Senate candidates. It'll hurt the House candidates. It will hurt the Republican Party and embolden the Democrats.

In short, Mitch McConnell's play may be good for him personally, but it will be suicide for the Grand Old Party and most of them don't even see it coming.

Morning Briefing for July 18, 2011

RedState Morning Briefing

For July 18, 2011

Go to www.RedStateMB.com to get
the Morning Briefing every morning at no charge.

1. The Rise of the Third Party

2. Why Is John Boehner Letting House Republicans Be Mitch McConnell's Toy?

3. The McConnell "deal" sells out conservative principles

4. Why McConnell's Plan Is Bad for America

5. AFSCME: The Big Green Dog Behind Big Government & Higher Taxes

6. Politifact's Review of Josh Trevino: Mostly Hackery

7. Dr. Steven Chu and 'Common Sense'

———————————————————————-

1. The Rise of the Third Party

I have long criticized the calls of many disaffected conservatives for a third party and I maintain that position. The closest I have come to calling for a third party is to encourage tea party activists to take over the GOP from within.

External third parties are not, in my mind, a solution to anything, but a great enabler of Democrats.

Notwithstanding my opinion, I believe the GOP, should it adopt Mitch McConnell's Pontius Pilate Act, will be sowing the seeds of its own destruction.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

2. Why Is John Boehner Letting House Republicans Be Mitch McConnell's Toy?

Here is what is going to happen unless House Republicans stage an immediate revolt against their own House leadership.

Mitch McConnell, Harry Reid, and Nancy Pelosi are going to win. They have managed to cut the legs out from under John Boehner and the House Republicans. In fact, the House Republicans have taken on all the appearances of Mitch McConnell's basement gimp.

I'm not sure why we need them any more if the McConnell-Reid-Pelosi Pontius Pilate Act passes.

See, John Boehner ceded authority to Mitch McConnell. Instead of embracing the conservative "Cut, Cap, and Balance" plan or even pushing forward with Paul Ryan's plan as an alternative, Boehner let McConnell move forward and cut Boehner's legs out from under him. It was a willing sacrifice on Boehner's part because he'd rather be legless than fight.

Now here is what Boehner and McConnell have agreed to do.

At the start of next week, House Republicans will vote on their cut, cap, and balance plan.

Because of leadership undermining it behind the scenes, it will be lucky to get 218 votes. And if it gets 218 votes, it will get to the Senate and Mitch McConnell will declare his support for it while letting Harry Reid deny it a vote. Of, better yet, they'll vote for it. It won't get 51 votes.

And then Mitch McConnell and John Boehner will say as they are already starting to say in the press, "Well, we just couldn't get it through. Time to go with the Pontius Pilate Act." There will be no fight. There will be no holding the line. The votes will come fast to avoid getting any last minute momentum. It will all be so Congressional Republican Leaders will say, "Well, they failed. Let's move on." Never mind that moving on instead of holding the line is what got us into this mess to begin with.

We'll get another deficit commission in the deal. And then we'll cede congressional power to the President to raise the debt ceiling so Republicans don't get blamed.

It is now a foregone conclusion.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

3. The McConnell "deal" sells out conservative principles

I don't want to repeat a lot of the great points that Erick has made already about the McConnell "contingency deal." The proposal is a dereliction of duty and everything that we all hate about Washington. It punts responsibility at exactly the point when Republicans want Americans to give them more. The Club for Growth has announced that we oppose the McConnell-Reid-Pelosi deal and we'll be Key Voting against it for multiple reasons.

This is a critical moment in the debate over the debt ceiling. I can tell you now that any Republican who votes to give President Obama MORE power, allowing him to RAISE the debt ceiling WITHOUT guaranteed spending cuts and a Balanced Budget Amendment …well, I can tell you that voting to do so is selling out. It means you put politics before principle. It means you put elections before doing what's right. It means you care more about protecting your job than saving America.

Senator McConnell and the rest of the Republicans in the Senate and in the House need to hear it from the Tea Party movement. They need to hear it from the grassroots. Erick has written on here many times for Republicans to "hold the freaking line." I couldn't agree more.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

4. Why McConnell's Plan Is Bad for America

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's politically motivated plan to raise the debt limit "does nothing for the good of the country," according to The Heritage Foundation's David S. Addington, who outlined the think tank's concerns on The Foundry this afternoon.

"The McConnell Plan would put America deeper into debt and achieves nothing toward the vitally important objective of getting federal overspending and overborrowing under control," wrote Addington, who served as chief of staff and counsel to Vice President Dick Cheney before joining Heritage.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

5. AFSCME: The Big Green Dog Behind Big Government & Higher Taxes

Across the nation, states, counties, and municipalities are facing a fiscal calamity. Even before the 2008 economic meltdown, many states were facing a sea of red ink due to over-promising, poor fiscal planning, and too much political influence from government union bosses. Now, as politicians of both parties grapple with the mess created by years of passing the buck, they are faced with taxpayers revolting on the right, businesses fleeing union-dominated states and radicalized government unions on the left.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

6. Politifact's Review of Josh Trevino: Mostly Hackery

RedState Co-Founder appeared on MSNBC last night discussing, inter alia, the debt ceiling, and liberals are in a tizzy. Some of them apparently contacted the liberal hack artists at Politifact (who have still got about 5 people on earth convinced that they are a neutral fact checker) to take a run at Josh's claims about polling on the deficit. The clip of Josh's performance is here.

By way of reminder, Politifact's long history of liberal hackery has been discussed ad nauseam, including this absurd piece in which liberal gasbag Gary Trudeau was declared correct despite equating terrorism with homicides, legal shootings, and accidents, not to mention this ridiculous hit job on Rob Portman, among many other clearly politically motivated "fact checks."

Please click here for the rest of the post.

7. Dr. Steven Chu and 'Common Sense'

Energy Secretary and Nobel Laureate Dr. Steven Chu defends the banning of conventional incandescent light bulbs as a 'common-sense' measure that is certainly a 'win-win' for consumers. (Caution: Clicking HuffPo links may cause a loss of IQ points.)

Please click here for the rest of the post.

Why Is John Boehner Letting House Republicans Be Mitch McConnell's Toy?

Here is what is going to happen unless House Republicans stage an immediate revolt against their own House leadership.

Mitch McConnell, Harry Reid, and Nancy Pelosi are going to win. They have managed to cut the legs out from under John Boehner and the House Republicans. In fact, the House Republicans have taken on all the appearances of Mitch McConnell's basement gimp.

I'm not sure why we need them any more if the McConnell-Reid-Pelosi Pontius Pilate Act passes.

See, John Boehner ceded authority to Mitch McConnell. Instead of embracing the conservative "Cut, Cap, and Balance" plan or even pushing forward with Paul Ryan's plan as an alternative, Boehner let McConnell move forward and cut Boehner's legs out from under him. It was a willing sacrifice on Boehner's part because he'd rather be legless than fight.

Now here is what Boehner and McConnell have agreed to do.

At the start of next week, House Republicans will vote on their cut, cap, and balance plan.

Because of leadership undermining it behind the scenes, it will be lucky to get 218 votes. And if it gets 218 votes, it will get to the Senate and Mitch McConnell will declare his support for it while letting Harry Reid deny it a vote. Of, better yet, they'll vote for it. It won't get 51 votes.

And then Mitch McConnell and John Boehner will say as they are already starting to say in the press, "Well, we just couldn't get it through. Time to go with the Pontius Pilate Act." There will be no fight. There will be no holding the line. The votes will come fast to avoid getting any last minute momentum. It will all be so Congressional Republican Leaders will say, "Well, they failed. Let's move on." Never mind that moving on instead of holding the line is what got us into this mess to begin with.

We'll get another deficit commission in the deal. And then we'll cede congressional power to the President to raise the debt ceiling so Republicans don't get blamed.

It is now a foregone conclusion.

House Republicans have refused to hold the freaking line. They have refused to fight. In fact, they have bought the myth that they are powerless and let Mitch McConnell negotiate for them. He, being a Senator, pretended they don't matter, and is now prepared to hand their power over to Barack Obama.

This is, as it was, all about Mitch McConnell. It was never about saving the country or raising the debt ceiling.

McConnell is convinced the GOP will lose the PR battle and if they lose the PR battle, he won't become Senate Majority Leader. That's all McConnell wants. And now, because House Republicans are fine acting like McConnell's basement gimp, McConnell might just get that and the country will get $2 trillion in new debt over the next year without significant spending cuts.

But hey! We'll get another deficit commission. Just the like the one we had last year. But even more super awesome.

The only thing that could possibly change the outcome is a full on rebellion by House Republicans against their leadership. But given their caving on the continuing resolution and their failure to fight over Obamacare, I won't hold my breath.

As David Gregory said this morning on Meet the Press, "Debt is winning." Thanks Republicans!

Dear House Republicans, This is Your "Time For Choosing"

"From here on out, if you lose this fight, every time you balk at expanding government, social security checks will be withheld, medicare payments will be withheld, and in just a few short years, surgeries will be cancelled, vaccinations withheld, and hospitals shuttered."

Dear House Republicans,

In the election of 2010, voters sent you to Washington to do two things: (1) End Obamacare and (2) pull us back from the brink of financial ruin.

You have failed at the first task. Obamacare remains. You never even seriously attempted to restrain its funding or implementation. Heck, you haven't even saved the incandescent lightbulb.

Will you now fail at the second task too?

If you cave, fold, or compromise on the President's terms, you will have failed in both your missions. If you support Mitch McConnell's plan, you will have decisively failed.

Now is a time for choosing. Now is your time for choosing.As I pointed out to John Boehner yesterday, despite what the pundits in Washington are telling you, it is you and not Obama who hold most of the cards. Obama has a legacy to worry about. Should the United States lose its bond rating, it will be called the "Obama Depression". Congress does not get pinned with this stuff.

But there are a few points that you need to understand.

First, as the hours go on, the doom and gloom scenarios are going to get worse. By the end of July, Goldman Sachs, Ben Bernanke, and Timmy Geithner are going to tell you the world will end unless you raise the debt ceiling.

They did it with TARP too.

And now we know that the amount of money used in TARP was far less than allocated and a lot of the TARP situation involved Hank Paulson forcing solvent banks to play along. Oh, and a great many Republicans were primaried out of office.

Do not believe the doom and gloom. Wise decisions are never made when premised on fear.

Second, understand that the pundits and talking heads people expect you to listen to probably have it wrong. Remember, in 2010, they told you that if you kept being the Party of No, you'd lose. And yet . . .

As I've said repeatedly, the pundits and chattering class in Washington have a bias far greater than their liberal one — it is a good government bias. They believe Republicans and Democrats should come together and do grand bargains. Evil and stupid come together and do something evil and stupid. The press heralds it as bipartisanship at its finest, damn the results. We've been doing these grand bargains for years. Remember the last time we had a balanced budget in DC? That was at $5 trillion in national debt and no one bothered to read the fine print that the "balance" was actually based on a 10 year Congressional Budget Office projection.

Likewise, the pundits with a good government bias for some reason tend to ignore the Democrats' problems. In 2010, the media told us you beat the Democrats because the Democrats got their message wrong, not their policy. We know the truth. But we also know that the Democrats were willing to lose to advance socialism. Are you willing to lose to advance freedom?

Finally, and here is my big point — you have to win this fight. If you do not win this fight, there will be no more chances to turn back government. Why? Because President Obama is holding senior citizens hostage with their social security checks.

If the President can force your hand by using entitlements as a lever to punish the American people if you don't do as he wants, you will have established this as a precedent. From here on out, if you lose this fight, every time you balk at expanding government, social security checks will be withheld, medicare payments will be withheld, and in just a few short years, surgeries will be cancelled, vaccinations withheld, and hospitals shuttered.

It will all be because if you lose this fight now, the Democrats will know for certain from here on out that they can use withholding entitlements as a tool to force your hand.

You must win this fight. You must show you are not afraid. When Ben Bernanke brings the Grim Reaper in on August 1st to tell you we are all going to die, you must mock death and choose life — not bipartisan compromises that will keep growing government and ever more rapidly turn this nation into a third class banana republic. In short, you must hold the freaking line!

Now, some of you, if you have read this far, are saying, "But in 1995, the Republicans got blamed for shutting down the government." They did. But that's because Americans detest losers. And Newt Gingrich and Bob Dole threw in the towel instead of fighting. Their will broke. They did not break the President's will. Of course, the next year the GOP still only lost 9 House seats and actually gained Senate seats. Imagine what would have happened had they broken the President's will.

House Republicans, this is a time for choosing: Do you choose to be more courageous than the Democrats who were willing to risk defeat to advance socialism? Is keeping your job more important to you than saving the country? If so, the odds are you will both lose your job and lose your country.

This is a time for choosing. Choose wisely.

Morning Briefing for July 15, 2011

RedState Morning Briefing

For July 15, 2011

Go to www.RedStateMB.com to get
the Morning Briefing every morning at no charge.

1. Dear House Republicans, This is Your "Time For Choosing"

2. It Is As I Feared

3. The American People Are Fast Becoming More Furious

4. Palin.

5. The Amazon Tax fight isn't over in California

6. The EPA Must Be Stopped, and I'm Not Talking About Light Bulbs

7. The Horserace

———————————————————————-

1. Dear House Republicans, This is Your "Time For Choosing"

In the election of 2010, voters sent you to Washington to do two things: (1) End Obamacare and (2) pull us back from the brink of financial ruin.

You have failed at the first task. Obamacare remains. You never even seriously attempted to restrain its funding or implementation. Heck, you haven't even saved the incandescent lightbulb.

Will you now fail at the second task too?

If you cave, fold, or compromise on the President's terms, you will have failed in both your missions. If you support Mitch McConnell's plan, you will have decisively failed.

Now is a time for choosing. Now is your time for choosing.As I pointed out to John Boehner yesterday, despite what the pundits in Washington are telling you, it is you and not Obama who hold most of the cards. Obama has a legacy to worry about. Should the United States lose its bond rating, it will be called the "Obama Depression". Congress does not get pinned with this stuff.

But there are a few points that you need to understand.

First, as the hours go on, the doom and gloom scenarios are going to get worse. By the end of July, Goldman Sachs, Ben Bernanke, and Timmy Geithner are going to tell you the world will end unless you raise the debt ceiling.

They did it with TARP too.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

2. It Is As I Feared

We should be quick to praise and slow to anger. I know I frequently go to DEFCON1 quicker than many others, though they eventually get there. I try to be quick to praise too.

And so it was yesterday that I and others praised Mitch McConnell for signing on as a co-sponsor to Cut, Cap, and Balance.

In my praise, I wrote, " I can only hope that he will, now signed on, aggressively push CCB and not be a supporter in name only."

I write this because I remember in TARP and in the Obamacare fight and in several other fights, McConnell signed on to conservative proposals only to work behind the scenes to advance other agendas that undercut conservatives. TARP got passed and the Senate GOP never used the full force of Senate rules to block Obamacare. Those aren't the only two times.

And so as the sun rises today, I learn from multiple Hill sources and now media reports that after McConnell sent out notice that he was signing on to Cut, Cap, and Balance, he began making door to door visits throughout the Senate lining up support for the Pontius Pilate Pass the Buck Act of 2011 — his plan to allow Barack Obama to raise the debt limit by $2 trillion.

What's more, McConnell has enlisted the help of Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid to line up Democrat votes for the plan. Meanwhile, Speaker Boehner is saying the McConnell plan is a viable option.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

3. The American People Are Fast Becoming More Furious

The ATF went statistic-shopping in support of a proposed rule to limit the freedoms of firearm owners and dealers. Operation Fast and Furious was an effort to create a law enforcement problem so that government could expand its enforcement operations without actual organic crimes to fight. This involved the government deliberately seeding areas near the US border with firearms that they intended to track after sales. These straw man deals went bad when the USG promptly failed to track their inventory of 1,700 firearms. Losing just one would get a 2nd LT tossed from the USMC.

The government weapons began turning up at murder scenes that resulted from gunplay between rival international narcotics gangs. Allegedly, at least two USBP agents and 150 Mexican Citizens have turned up dead after being drive-by body-pierced by Operation Fast and Furious firearms. In fairness, even some ATF agents have become angry that .50 caliber Barrett Rifles have been sold into Mexico and lost by USG employees and have gone to the media with accounts of it all.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

4. Palin.

It's been almost three years since I, along with many others, was introduced to Governor Sarah Palin. In that time we have been saturated with coverage of her and just about everybody on the left and the right, has had the opportunity to get to know who she is and what they think of her.

At least that's what I thought.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

5. The Amazon Tax fight isn't over in California

While Jerry Brown has signed the budget bill that imposed an Internet Sales Tax on California, an arguably unconstitutional attempt to tax out-of-state businesses conducting interstate commerce with Californians, the fight's not over. I've said again and again that Amazon doesn't play around. And sure enough, the very night Brown signed the bill, Amazon emailed me and every other Amazon Associate in California to terminate our contracts.

Amazon's not stopping there though. This company is admirable in its insistence that it will do the right thing and stand up for the shareholders. That trend continues as now Amazon has filed for a referendum on ABx1 28, the Amazon Tax portion of the budget. Referendum is of course one of the three classic Progressive acts of Democracy that the far left celebrates, held up along side Initiative and Recall, the latter of which we're currently seeing used with gusto in Wisconsin.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

6. The EPA Must Be Stopped, and I'm Not Talking About Light Bulbs

There's been a lot of talk these days about light bulbs. The Hill is reporting on how it's shedding light on the "new Republican party," one that is so "out of touch with the mainstream" because it only listens to it's "extremist elements." The New York Times has declared victory for the green movement, while some in the blogosphere have taken to referring to the bulb issue as a "fatal conceit," referring to the White House's fulfillment of Hayek's description.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

7. The Horserace

For the first time in a month, Michele Bachmann is on the decline, though slightly. It's a brewing situation in Iowa her competitors are using to get the best of her. There's more rough water on the horizon.

Of all things, people close to Sarah Palin are now saying they think she might get into the race. I'm still not sure, but given the chatter there's got to be something to it. Rick Perry, as well, may actually soon be getting in.

Along the way, Tim Pawlenty has found his footing again and, though he's going to have a tough time combatting recent polling trends, he's making a show of it in Iowa. Jon Huntsman is going after Mitt Romney, but Romney is holding his lead.

And then there is Ron Paul. Ron Paul is suddenly surprising a lot of people, including me.

We'll get into it all in this week's horse race on the road to the White House.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

On Herman Cain's Path to Victory and a Message for House Republicans #EERS

Tonight is serious business on the Erick Erickson Show.

I'm going to go in depth in the first 30 minutes about Herman Cain and why I say he has no path to victory.

At 7:30, we're going to review my address to Speaker Boehner in order to set us up for an address to House Republicans at 8pm tonight. You are definitely going to want to tune in at 8pm.

The show kicks off at 7:05 p.m. ET tonight. You can call in at 1-800-WSB-TALK and listen live tonight by clicking right here.

Consider this an open thread.

Oh, and remember, you can get my podcast right here.

It Is As I Feared

We should be quick to praise and slow to anger. I know I frequently go to DEFCON1 quicker than many others, though they eventually get there. I try to be quick to praise too.

And so it was today that I and others praised Mitch McConnell for signing on as a co-sponsor to Cut, Cap, and Balance.

In my praise, I wrote, " I can only hope that he will, now signed on, aggressively push CCB and not be a supporter in name only."

I write this because I remember in TARP and in the Obamacare fight and in several other fights, McConnell signed on to conservative proposals only to work behind the scenes to advance other agendas that undercut conservatives. TARP got passed and the Senate GOP never used the full force of Senate rules to block Obamacare. Those aren't the only two times.

And so as the sun is setting today, I learn from multiple Hill sources and now media reports that after McConnell sent out notice that he was signing on to Cut, Cap, and Balance, he began making door to door visits throughout the Senate lining up support for the Pontius Pilate Pass the Buck Act of 2011 — his plan to allow Barack Obama to raise the debt limit by $2 trillion.

What's more, McConnell has enlisted the help of Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid to line up Democrat votes for the plan. Meanwhile, Speaker Boehner is saying the McConnell plan is a viable option.

Conservatives are, yet again, getting outmanuvered and will require strong support of freshman House Republicans and Senate conservatives to block this deal.

As I said weeks ago regarding the Cut, Cap, and Balance Pledge — if the sponsors of the pledge are not willing to pledge scorched earth to defeat those who raise the debt ceiling without cutting, capping, and balancing the budget, they might as well hang it up.

And it is looking like they might have to unless they finally decide to fight.

Again and again I have to say it — hold the freaking line.

Today, We Must Give Mitch McConnell His Due Credit

Today comes word that Mitch McConnell has signed on to the DeMint strategy of cutting, capping, and balancing the budget.

Legislation has been introduced by the Republicans and they are calling it CCB, for "cut, cap, and balance."

With Moody's statement yesterday that the nation's credit is at stake and demanding a long term plan to deal with our debt, it seems McConnell's own plan is off the table. It does nothing to deal with the debt to income ratio of the country and is a short term $2 trillion increase in debt with no real cuts.

So it is nice to see McConnell now signing on to the conservative plan. More striking, Eric Cantor and John Boehner have still not. In fact, conservatives in Congress are insisting that CCB be dealt with even before a Balanced Budget Amendment.

McConnell seems game to proceed on that front. Hopefully Boehner and Cantor will listen.

McConnell deserves our credit today for doing the right thing. I can only hope that he will, now signed on, aggressively push CCB and not be a supporter in name only.

Republicans have an easy battle cry thanks to Moody's.

CCB=AAA rating.

Meanwhile, back at the White House, the President still won't show us what he actually wants to cut.

The Horserace for July 14, 2011

IA Caucus: Feb. 6, 2012

NH Primary: Feb. 14, 2012 (expected)

SC Primary: TBD

NV Caucus: Feb. 18, 2012

For the first time in a month, Michele Bachmann is on the decline, though slightly. It's a brewing situation in Iowa her competitors are using to get the best of her. There's more rough water on the horizon.

Of all things, people close to Sarah Palin are now saying they think she might get into the race. I'm still not sure, but given the chatter there's got to be something to it. Rick Perry, as well, may actually soon be getting in.

Along the way, Tim Pawlenty has found his footing again and, though he's going to have a tough time combatting recent polling trends, he's making a show of it in Iowa. Jon Huntsman is going after Mitt Romney, but Romney is holding his lead.

And then there is Ron Paul. Ron Paul is suddenly surprising a lot of people, including me.

We'll get into it all in this week's horse race on the road to the White House.

Michele Bachmann

Bachmann is down this week, but only slightly.

In Iowa, Michele Bachmann signed a pledge supporting traditional marriage. The pledge contained a preamble that said children born of slaves in 1860 were more likely to be raised in a two parent household than black children born in 1960. The statement, in addition to being highly offensive to many people, is factually not true. The researcher cited in a footnote says it is not true.

It seems very clear that Michele Bachmann did not see the preamble. It was on a separate page from the actual pledge. But the damage is done. She and Rick Santorum signed it. Now, the other candidates are making a big deal out of not signing it. It's a minor issue and one she can overcome. But it throws her off her game this week.

I suspect we'll see Bachmann come out strongly for Cut, Cap, and Balance and opposition to Mitch McConnell's deal. Given her rise in the polls and that she is now beating Romney in Iowa polling, she'll be a force to contend with on this and has the potential to show real leadership the other candidates are suggesting she does not have.

Then, of course, there are her fundraising numbers, which are pretty much guaranteed to get her a lot of good press.

But all this could change if the rumors about Sarah Palin are true.

Herman Cain

Herman Cain has bottomed out, but still can't find momentum to get in the air again.

I hate to be the bearer of bad news. I want Herman Cain to do well. He must do well in Iowa. If Cain cannot do well in Iowa, he is finished. And with six months to go, Iowa caucus goers are referring to him as a "supernova;" i.e. a great flash of brightness soon to go dark. There are only around 125,000 caucus goers in Iowa. And many of those who were going to go with Cain are now going to Bachmann or waiting for someone else. He's losing staff in Iowa and New Hampshire.

I no longer see a path to victory for Herman Cain.

Newt Gingrich

Newt Gingrich's campaign is over. He came out against the McConnell "Pontius Pilate Act" earlier this week, but was not able to get traction from it. I'm not writing him off yet. If he can seize the moment on the debt ceiling fight, he might be able to get back in the game. But right now, I'm having a hard time finding a pulse.

Jon Huntsman

Jon Huntsman is like the Duke of York, neither up nor down.

Jon Huntsman's media girlfriends who serenaded his entry are now lamenting that he got in too late. The two term governor of Utah is losing Utah to Mitt Romney. He's got no traction in Iowa. He's barely got a pulse in New Hampshire. He's being superceded in South Carolina by Bachmann and others. He's relying on Florida, going so far as to issue statements denouncing Democrats' statements at the county level in Florida.

There is an incredible lameness right now about Huntsman and no issue on the front burner for him to take advantage of. He can't take advantage of the spending issues when he supported Obama's stimulus. There's no pressing foreign policy matter for him.

Right now he is training his fire on Mitt Romney and more and more seems to be just a spoiler, not a winner.

Thaddeus McCotter

I will hold my position from last week on McCotter. From his statements thus far, I suspect McCotter is running to be a spoiler against Romney more than he is running to be President. He's not going to be the nominee. His pro-union baggage is already getting him attacked by right to work folks. He's got no long term viability as a Presidential candidate because his ability to impact others in the race.

Sarah Palin

I've been saying for a long time that she is not running. There is now a growing sense that Palin might have, or might be on the verge of, changing her mind.

A lot of the buzz stems from the Newsweek interview. It was quite a favorable interview and probably, should she run, the last time anyone would accuse Newsweek of giving her favorable coverage.

Some people close to Palin say they think she might now be running. Palin says her daughter wants her to run. There still are no signs of an effort to build a big team around her to run. At this time, I still lean toward her not running, but readily admit that could change rapidly. My guess, however, is she is waiting on the Governor of Texas. If he gets in, the rationale for a Palin campaign diminishes except to the role of spoiler against Bachmann and Romney.

Ron Paul

Ron Paul gets a bump up this week in the horserace.

People are waking up to a surprising new ad by Ron Paul today. His first ad. And it is about the debt ceiling. It is a brilliant and well done ad. As I've said in the past, Paul won't be the nominee, but he could be hugely influential on the fiscal message.

Ron Paul's ad sets the bar very high today and is going to, thankfully, force the other candidates to get into the fight over the debt ceiling, probably starting with Bachmann. The frontrunners cannot afford for Paul to get ahead of them on this issue and, given the political climate, this is actually a way for Ron Paul to creep up in the polls.

Tim Pawlenty

He's back up for the first time in weeks.

He's got his footing back. He's on message in Iowa. His "faith and values" message is being well received. He has upped his willingness to differentiate his record with Michele Bachmann and the other candidates. Some people are crying foul over Pawlenty doing this. But he is doing it politely and focusing on records, not personality. That's the way it must be done. His nice guy appeal still comes through.

The problem for Pawlenty is that he's falling behind in Iowa and must largely move to the state and camp out there for the next six months. It is a must win for him and he knows it. But by focusing so much on Iowa, he's not on South Carolina. He could potentially rely on momentum, but it is a gamble.

For several months I have said Pawlenty is the guy to keep an eye on. I've now got a growing sense that Pawlenty's chances at the top slot are fading while his chances for Veep are growing. There's time to turn it around, but it becomes more complicated with a Palin or Perry in the race. And he needs money.

Rick Perry

Speaking of the Governor of Texas, I hear that the machine is in motion for a Presidential run, though a decision has still not been made. With over half of New Hampshire's political operatives, donors, fundraisers, and activists who were active in 2008 still on the sidelines this time, Perry can still get in. Likewise, in Iowa, I hear that a good number of the caucus goers are waiting for Perry to get in.

There are a few media reports out there that the Perry campaign, in surveying the landscape, has decided it is too late for him to get in. Those reports are fatuous nonsense. In my surveys and those of others of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, there is a massive amount of sideline sitting by operatives, donors, grassroots activists, etc.

I think Perry runs.

Mitt Romney

Mitt Romney is the front runner and continues holding steady.

The press has started running to Romney to ask him his opinion on matters of policy, which adds to the psychological air of inevitability that helps Romney. Right now, no candidate has put a dent in that air of inevitability. And to beat Romney, that's the first thing that must be dented.

There are dark clouds on the horizon though. Huntsman is ganging up on him. Bachmann is gaining on him in key early states. Bain is going to become a problem for him. Ultimately, Romney's biggest problem right now is that he is the front runner and its six months from Iowa.

He's played it really safe and got a lead, but his lead still seems capped. If candidates start dropping out, their supporters seem ready to rally to someone other than Romney, thereby closing the gap. And if he starts to fall behind now, it'll be tougher for him to get back the lead.

Romney's play it safe strategy is also going to hurt unless he starts coming out with some bold pronouncements on this debt ceiling fight. He is the front runner. He should be leading. Instead, we're seeing Ron Paul take the lead and I suspect Michele Bachmann and Tim Pawlenty are about to rise to the challenge.

In most years, Presidential candidates get to avoid talking about pending policy matters until they are the nominee. Not now. Not when conservatives are insisting on leadership and a fight. They'll remember what Mitt Romney did or did not do.

Rick Santorum

The only relevant question regarding Rick Santorum is whether he drops out before or after Newt Gingrich. He's done.