Erick Erickson's Blog, page 128

Crossing a Line and Overreaching

Yesterday, House Republicans went to war against the conservative Republican Study Committee and its staffers who've been doing the Lord's work against the Boehner plan.

Some of those attacks helped energize and militarize some of the conservative leaders who had not been fully engaged against Boehner's plan. Consider this complete overreach by John Boehner and possibly the beginning of the end of his Speakership.

Allegedly, Boehner has explicitly blessed this plan. The plan is to redistrict RSC Chairman Jim Jordan, a fellow Ohioan, out of his congressional district as punishment for defying Boehner. If he hasn't or doesn't support it, Boehner needs to get out there damn quick today.

Redistricting may be a price Jordan will have to pay, but Boehner will have to pay a price as well. As one prominent outside conservative emailed, followed by several others in separate emails, "This is war."

Mike Pence, Jeb Hensarling, and other former RSC Chairmen now have a time for their own choosing. Do they side with the Speaker, or with the conservatives they once led in the RSC who continue to fight for the limited government they have fought for in the past.

You might want to call Mike Pence in particular and see if he might reconsider and stand, instead, with the conservative band of brothers he himself led into battle against so many bad policies of the Bush Administration.

This would be a hell of a note to leave the House on.

His number is 202 225-3021.

RINOs

I see a lot of John Boehner Plan supporters mockingly referring to guys like Mike Pence as "RINOs".

I have not and will not.

Let's be clear that while a number of us in the past few days have been called hobbits and "pro-Obama" this remains a disagreement among guys who are typically friends.

I disagree with Mike Pence and Allen West on this one. They are not RINOs and anyone who thinks they are is as deserving as the mental ward as John Boehner and his leadership team for dividing a group of people who stood united last week.

The problem as I see it is that we have a lot of good guys who are being team players at the expense of their principles.

I know I get frequently accused of not being a team player. In truth, I rarely am. Why? Because in my experience I'd rather advocate for the principled position and then let the elected guys figure out how far to deviate from the principle. Sometimes, I try to prevent them from going over the cliff like lemmings. Today is one of those days.

These guys aren't RINOs in one vote. Mike Pence is a profoundly decent guy I'm proud to support for Governor. I think, however, that Pence and a number of otherwise solid conservatives are today being lemmings willing to go over the cliff in support of the team rather than standing up and saying "NUTS." And for a guy like Pence, it is doubly saddening because this is how his congressional career end will be remembered. Marc Anthony was right — "the good is oft interred with their bones." People remember the bad.

Friends are allowed to disagree. Friends are expected to forgive. It's all part of friendship.

Besides, the filthy hobbitses eventually win anyway.

The Horserace for July 28, 2011

IA Caucus: Feb. 6, 2012

NH Primary: Feb. 14, 2012 (expected)

SC Primary: TBD

NV Caucus: Feb. 18, 2012

In this week's horserace, Michele Bachmann has stabilized and the attacks against her have actually helped her. Mitt Romney, on the other hand, finally decided to come out of the candidate protection program and be seen to endorse John Boehner's plan. His support was not as full throated as Jon Huntsman's, but was more visible and also more damaging to a lot of outside conservative groups opposed to the plan.

Pawlenty and Bachmann opposed it.

Herman Cain seems intent on being a serious candidate and it looks like he's going to get his second chance. Can he rebound and will Perry and Palin get in? We'll get into it all in the horserace the horserace this week.

But first, I have struck Rick Santorum from the list of Presidential candidates, adding him to Gary Johnson on the "former" list.

Michele Bachmann

Bachmann is holding steady this week. The one major strategic goof I think she made is that she did not get out there aggressively on the debt ceiling nationally. She had a chance to do it and didn't take advantage. It is probably a wise move for a Presidential candidate to not get in the weeds on an issue like this, but Bachmann is also a House member and will vote.

Given her signing the CCB pledge only to vote against the law, she could have come out forcefully against Boehner's plan and did not. It will not, however, damage her.

The one thing that had damaged her and put her in a bit of damage control was the staff leaks against her campaign. But as I predicted, a lot of the attacks have been so over the top or silly that they are actually helping Bachmann with the grassroots. I've long maintained that if the media tries to do to Bachmann what they did to Palin, Bachmann gets helped. So far, it is panning out.

But, the attacks are going to keep coming fast and furious and I think the press attacks and candidate pile ons could throw her off her game.

Herman Cain

As the pile on of Bachmann begins and Rick Perry begins to rise, Herman Cain has a small window to find a path to victory.

Apologizing for the muslim comments and doing an interview with Kathleen Parker are serious signs Cain is still serious about making a real go of a Presidential race. He will have only a small opportunity as people begin to doubt Bachmann and start looking around to woo those people before they go to Perry.

I think it is probably time for Cain to spend some real capital on a good, even web, ad campaign to get some serious grassroots attention as the economic fixer. If he can do that, he stays in the game. If he doesn't, he'll not be able to capture a path to victory and be out of the game permanently.

Newt Gingrich

Unless something changes, this will be the last week Newt Gingrich is on this list as a contender. His campaign continues to get no traction.

Rudy Giuliani

There are signs of life in a possible Giuliani campaign, but not much. I still don't think he will run, but should he it will hurt Mitt Romney. In fact, were Rudy to get in, he'd never say it, but I think it'd be to get Romney out.

Jon Huntsman

The Huntsman campaign continues to survive and get media attention. He came out most forcefully for John Boehner's plan — a fact he will come to regret. He can self-fund his way to New Hampshire, so we can't count him out. But I still see no path to victory for him right now.

Thaddeus McCotter

McCotter is too new in the race to be struck from the list this week, but I'm sorely tempted to. Maybe next week. He has no path to victory.

Sarah Palin

Palin will be heading a big even in Iowa for the tea party movement on September 3rd. There are no outward signs that she'll use it to launch a Presidential campaign. If Perry gets in before then, I really don't think she will run. But, several people have pointed out that the date of her speech is the 3rd anniversary of her speech in 2008 at the RNC.

Ron Paul

Ron Paul will not be the nominee.

Tim Pawlenty

It is increasingly likely that Tim Pawlenty's days are numbered. He took the right approach — slow and steady while the other candidates flame out. But he never caught on and Michele Bachmann's rise was as unpredictable as her fall might be. Pawlenty is about to seriously get overshadowed by Rick Perry.

Rick Perry

Once Perry makes it official, he will be the front runner of the anti-Romney coalition. Gallup, CNN, and Fox, among others, all show what the rest of us see. When Perry gets in — I think it is no longer a matter of "if" but "when" — he starts pulling votes from everybody, including Romney. Bachmann, Pawlenty, and Cain fade. Gingrich is finished off.

About the only guy not hurt is Jon Huntsman, but that is more a testament to how outside the GOP Huntsman intends to run his campaign and also why Huntsman can't win.

Perry will be piled on immediately on all sides from the HPV vaccine issue to his gay marriage comments, which actually help him with libertarian oriented voters and ultimately won't hurt him with evangelicals, to the projected $7 billion deficit in Texas for next year. He's not going to get a free ride, but he will rocket to the top quickly.

Mitt Romney

Mitt Romney remains the front runner, but barely. Once Rick Perry gets in, I think it quickly descends into a two man race. Here's why.

There is a psychological factor that is extremely valuable to a front runner. When people perceive someone will win, undecided will break his way because people like to support a winner. For the longest time, even people who supported someone else thought Romney would be the nominee.

In a normal year, he could sit back, coast into victory, and stay above the fray. But this is not a normal year. And Romney miscalculated to play it like a normal year.

Now the people who think Romney will win is falling, the intrade market value for Romney is now below Rick Perry, and the newest polls show a Perry candidacy rocks Mitt Romney's world.

This isn't to say Romney won't win. The odds are still in his favor. But he's spent his time playing it safe, reassuring the establishment, and meanwhile the base has gotten mad as hell at the establishment. They aren't going to want to go for a guy like Romney. He's going to have to work on his tea party credibility to maintain his lead.

The Three Scenarios (And A Fourth)

There are three scenarios I see playing out here on the debt ceiling.

The least likely scenario is John Boehner's plan barely makes it through the House and then the Senate Democrats say, "Okay, we're out of time, let's do it." That's what the GOP is telling themselves will happen. Senator Reid today quashed that idea by saying the Senate will vote tonight to kill Boehner's plan.

The more likely scenario is that Reid will either use Boehner's plan as a shell to then pass Democrat ideas possibly including tax increases, White House policy preferences, etc. They will then send the bill back to the House and, since the shell will be John Boehner's plan, the Democrats will dare John Boehner to kill his own legislation.

What seems most likely at this point The third scenario is that the Senate will kill Boehner's plan tonight or tomorrow, then declare that we are out of time and insist on a "clean" debt ceiling increasing saying we'll take care of all the other issues later. The GOP, having folded all the way down to a bare bones plan, will probably cave.

And along the way we may lose our credit rating — the Chinese downgraded us today.

Any way it works, the GOP will get the blame, the debt ceiling will go up, taxes will go up, and spending will most definitely not go down.

The only way to stop it is for enough House Republicans to hold the line today and kill the Boehner plan.

—————

A friend of mine points out a fourth that he thinks is most likely and, having heard it, I'm both kicking myself for not thinking of it myself and also now have to say I completely think this is most likely.

The Senate will kill Boehner's plan and Mitch McConnell and Harry Reid will come up with a modified version of McConnell-Reid-Pelosi with some of Boehner's stuff and kick it back to the House daring the House GOP to kill a bipartisan plan.

Having pinged a few friends in the Senate on this scenario, they all had pretty much the same reply.

This is different from the second in that they won't use Boehner as a shell, but will construct something else.

More Proof It Is A Trap

From Mike Allen's Playbook in the Politico today comes this quote from a "top Democrat":

"The press will obsess about [today's House] vote [on the Boehner Two-Step], but at best it is an exercise in political machismo, at worst it is the beginning of the most irresponsible act in Congressional history. The House bill is dead on arrival in the Senate — at least 58 senators are on record saying they won't support it. That's worse than Ryan and cut, cap and balance. Once the vote is over, Speaker Boehner needs to begin immediately working on a way out of the mess Cantor created. If he doesn't, we could be in big trouble. There are dozens of possible compromises — he just has to take one. Reid, McConnell and the White House have plenty of options. The question is: Will he choose compromise for the sake of the country, or political grandstanding for the sake of his caucus?"

But wait!!!

All the Republicans keep telling us that this is the best they can hope for. How is it the best they can hope for when it is going to get less votes in the House and Senate than either Paul Ryan's plan or Cut, Cap, and Balance.

Our Admiral Ackbar Moment — It Is A Trap

As you wake up, here is what you need to know.

John Boehner thinks he has the votes to pass his third plan out of the House. Work to make sure he does not by going to http://www.redstate.com/action and calling your member of Congress. Tell them to oppose Boehner's plan.

Even if you are sympathetic to Boehner's plan, here is why it must be killed — it is a trap.

Pay attention please.

Harry Reid and all the Senate Democrats have sent John Boehner a letter saying they will oppose his plan in the Senate. In other words, Boehner's plan, given the GOP votes in the Senate pledged to vote against it, will get less votes in both the House and in the Senate than Cut, Cap, and Balance.

Here, though, is why it is important to kill John Boehner's plan this very morning before today's vote.

John Boehner's plan will get to the Senate. Harry Reid's plan isn't even in final form and has not even started making its way through the Senate's arcane processes. It is a trap.

Harry Reid will amend John Boehner's plan and include parts of Reid's own plan that make tax increases even more likely than Boehner's already does.

Senate Democrats last night were beginning to talk about adding the Gang of Six's very bad plan to it as well — a trigger that would be engaged should the Democrats then refuse to reform entitlements, i.e. a trigger the Democrats will gladly engage because the Gang of Six plan raises taxes, including getting rid of the employer credit for active duty military reservists and raising the capital gains tax from 15% to 28%.

Then the Senate Democrats will send John Boehner back his own plan and dare John Boehner to kill his very own proposal. Should he try, the GOP will look as hardline and unwilling to compromise as John Boehner's acolytes have been accusing conservatives of being this week.

In other words, John Boehner, once he sends his plan to the Senate, will yet again get played and the GOP will be forced to either accept Harry Reid's awful changes or be blamed for causing the nation's default — the very thing the GOP has sought to avoid.

Oh, and should the GOP fold and pass the modified Boehner plan, they'll still get blamed for us losing our credit rating. Even with Boehner's revisions, the Congressional Budget Office says the plan doesn't cut even $1 trillion. It doesn't meet S&P's requirements.

Well done, Republicans.

The only thing we can do is call our congressmen and prevent them from voting for this suicide pact. Go here now.

Morning Briefing for July 28, 2011

RedState Morning Briefing

For July 28, 2011

Go to www.RedStateMB.com to get
the Morning Briefing every morning at no charge.

1. Our Admiral Ackbar Moment — It Is A Trap

2. All You Need To Know About The House Republicans

3. The Great Divide

4. Message to RSC Members: Get in or Get Out

5. What is the End Game for Big Government?

———————————————————————-

1. Our Admiral Ackbar Moment — It Is A Trap

As you wake up, here is what you need to know.

John Boehner thinks he has the votes to pass his third plan out of the House. Work to make sure he does not by going to http://www.redstate.com/action and calling your member of Congress. Tell them to oppose Boehner's plan.

Even if you are sympathetic to Boehner's plan, here is why it must be killed — it is a trap.

Pay attention please.

Harry Reid and all the Senate Democrats have sent John Boehner a letter saying they will oppose his plan in the Senate. In other words, Boehner's plan, given the GOP votes in the Senate pledged to vote against it, will get less votes in both the House and in the Senate than Cut, Cap, and Balance.

Here, though, is why it is important to kill John Boehner's plan this very morning before today's vote.

John Boehner's plan will get to the Senate. Harry Reid's plan isn't even in final form and has not even started making its way through the Senate's arcane processes. It is a trap.

Harry Reid will amend John Boehner's plan and include parts of Reid's own plan that make tax increases even more likely than Boehner's already does.

Senate Democrats last night were beginning to talk about adding the Gang of Six's very bad plan to it as well — a trigger that would be engaged should the Democrats then refuse to reform entitlements, i.e. a trigger the Democrats will gladly engage because the Gang of Six plan raises taxes, including getting rid of the employer credit for active duty military reservists and raising the capital gains tax from 15% to 28%.

Then the Senate Democrats will send John Boehner back his own plan and dare John Boehner to kill his very own proposal. Should he try, the GOP will look as hardline and unwilling to compromise as John Boehner's acolytes have been accusing conservatives of being this week.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

2. All You Need To Know About The House Republicans

One week ago the entire conservative movement was unified behind Cut, Cap, and Balance as was both House and Senate GOP caucus — no small feat to be sure.

Then, because Harry Reid denied CCB a vote through a procedural motion, John Boehner produces a crackpot plan that rips the conservative movement apart at the seams and after taking two stabs at it, still can't get to the promised $1.2 trillion in cuts he initially claimed it would have.

The bill is being whipped against by Pelosi (which CCB was not) and will likely draw less Dem support than CCB. The bill is said by Reid to be DOA in the Senate.

But Boehner believes that it is strategically smarter to die on this hill and force it down Senate Dems throats rather than try to do that on a bill in which he has the support of all his members, all the movement, and 66 percent of the American people.

These people need to be put in a mental ward.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

3. The Great Divide

When the GOP was finally tossed for its "culture of corruption," there were very few Republicans standing in Washington that the GOP felt it could trust. Mike Pence was one. Jeff Flake another. Jim DeMint for sure.

So conservatives rallied to send them reinforcements — Tom Graves, Dave Schwiekert, Tim Huelskamp, Marco Rubio, Mike Lee, Rand Paul, etc.

The GOP told us they had turned from their big spending ways. John Boehner went so far last year to say he appreciated outside conservative groups holding their feet to the fire.

And then today —The GOP would not fight for smaller government when it was in the majority and now it seems it intends to cave abjectly in the minority hiding behind its minority status instead of fighting.

If the GOP won't fight in the majority and it won't fight in the minority, what good is it? Even now, guys like Jeff Flake and Mike Pence seem to be going wobbly.

Like TARP, No Child Left Behind, Medicare Part D, Harriet Miers — these are the fights that define a conservative's legacy in Congress. The new guys might not realize that. But ultimately, we conservatives remember.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

4. Message to RSC Members: Get in or Get Out

Rep. Jim Jordan, the Chairman of the Republican Study Committee (RSC), is taking massive heat from many of his own colleagues within the RSC for his public opposition to the Boehner debt deal. RSC staff is being called out by name for doing their job effectively. Calls are coming from all Leadershipistas to fire the RSC staff.

These members—such as Rep. Renee Ellmers (NC)—don't like the fact that they are perceived on the wrong side of where the conservative movement ended up. Some are threatening to quit their membership in the House of Representative's predominant conservative caucus.

If that's what they think, they should submit their resignation—today.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

5. What is the End Game for Big Government?

Those Republicans, such as the Wall Street Journal editors and the Weekly Standard writers, who criticize Tea Party opposition to Boehner's plan, would have you believe that they are just as ideologically committed to downsizing government. They are just advocating smarter and more politically savvy ways of achieving that goal; one that is supposedly less tendentious to independent voters. As such, they have an obligation to create a political and policy road map that will reduce government – a goal they purportedly share. Where is their plan?

We believe that unless we go to the brink, and use our leverage with the budget process to force fundamental and transformational government reform, we will never limit government. These wizards of smart obviously believe that we will have better opportunities in the future. What are those opportunities?

Please click here for the rest of the post.

All You Need To Know About The House Republicans

One week ago the entire conservative movement was unified behind Cut, Cap, and Balance as was both House and Senate GOP caucus — no small feat to be sure.

Then, because Harry Reid denied CCB a vote through a procedural motion, John Boehner produces a crackpot plan that rips the conservative movement apart at the seams and after taking two stabs at it, still can't get to the promised $1.2 trillion in cuts he initially claimed it would have.

The bill is being whipped against by Pelosi (which CCB was not) and will likely draw less Dem support than CCB. The bill is said by Reid to be DOA in the Senate.

But Boehner believes that it is strategically smarter to die on this hill and force it down Senate Dems throats rather than try to do that on a bill in which he has the support of all his members, all the movement, and 66 percent of the American people.

These people need to be put in a mental ward.

The Great Divide

If you want to stop the GOP from taking a bad deal out of fear, go to http://www.redstate.com/action right now and call your member of Congress to oppose John Boehner's plan.

This morning took an interesting turn of events. First the Wall Street Journal called us hobbits. Then Bill Kristol proclaimed us "pro-Obama." Then John Boehner told his members to get their "asses in line."

And then a handful of Republican members of congress started attacking me, this site, conservative members of congress, conservative staffers in congress, and conservative organizations including the Heritage Foundation, the Club for Growth, FreedomWorks, Americans for Prosperity, and the list goes on and on.

Friends, this is why the fight is so important — the legacy of the Republican Party.

During the Bush Administration, many conservatives got co-opted. It became more important to be on the team than fight on principle. Consequently, we got No Child Left Behind, Medicare Part D, TARP, the GM bailout, etc.

We almost got stuck with Harriet Miers and immigration reform.

When the GOP was finally tossed for its "culture of corruption," there were very few Republicans standing in Washington that the GOP felt it could trust. Mike Pence was one. Jeff Flake another. Jim DeMint for sure.

So conservatives rallied to send them reinforcements — Tom Graves, Dave Schwiekert, Tim Huelskamp, Marco Rubio, Mike Lee, Rand Paul, etc.

The GOP told us they had turned from their big spending ways. John Boehner went so far last year to say he appreciated outside conservative groups holding their feet to the fire.

And then today —The GOP would not fight for smaller government when it was in the majority and now it seems it intends to cave abjectly in the minority hiding behind its minority status instead of fighting.

If the GOP won't fight in the majority and it won't fight in the minority, what good is it? Even now, guys like Jeff Flake and Mike Pence seem to be going wobbly.

Like TARP, No Child Left Behind, Medicare Part D, Harriet Miers — these are the fights that define a conservative's legacy in Congress. The new guys might not realize that. But ultimately, we conservatives remember.

And we also remember the outside groups and pundits who are urging compromise and urging Boehner's plan. Many of these same people urged on the bad plans of the past only to then claim they got duped.

We sent to Washington a group of men and women to repeal Obamacare and cut Washington spending. Now we're confronted with the fact that they want to pass off their obligations to another deficit commission, give Barack Obama a too clever by half pass at rising the debt ceiling, and claim they did all they could. But they haven't.

These are not easy times or easy decisions. But we sure as heck should expect more from these guys. This isn't about being on John Boehner's team. It's about doing what is right. And it is not right to punt obligations and make ephemeral cuts.

If we're real honest — the GOP helped get us into this mess. John Boehner's plan does nothing to redeem the GOP's legacy. But along the way, attacking conservative heroes, hiding how his plan will lead to tax increases, and not fighting both hurts the GOP's relationship with its base and will seemingly cause a few long time heroes of the conservative movement to pollute their legacy with what amounts to a political cop out.

But hey — they're in the minority.

The real conservatives will hold the line.

Bill Kristol's Advice

Max Pappas at Freedom Works has the best summation of why Republicans in the House of Representatives should not take Bill Kristol's advice:

Supported a "moderate" stimulus:

"I would have supported a moderate stimulus."

Saw nothing wrong with the spending in the stimulus bill:

"If Obama wants a stimulus, Republicans will give it to him tomorrow. It's the president's and the Democrats' insistence on incorporating a huge and problematic policy agenda in this one bill that's delaying action."

Supported government involvement in banking industry:

"They should think about breaking up the banks."

Supported the Wall Street Bailout:

"Some of the same conservatives who (correctly, in my view) made the case for $700 billion for Wall Street pitched a fit over $14 billion in loans for the automakers."

Supported the Auto Bailout:

"The bill would have allowed President Bush to name a car czar, who could have begun to force concessions from all sides. It also would have averted for now a collapse of the auto industry, and shifted difficult decisions to the Obama administration."

Thinks Republicans should stand down on corporate tax hikes:

"Republicans are making a mistake if they focus on big businesses and corporate tax rates… Corporations have a ton of cash. The corporate tax rate is not killing big business in America."

Praises Medicare Part D:

"The Republican-passed Medicare Prescription Drug Benefit is working well and coming in under cost."

And that's only part of it. Go check out the whole thing.

Then go to http://www.redstate.com/action and call your congressman to oppose John Boehner's plan.