Nate Silver's Blog, page 30
December 17, 2020
2020-21 NBA Predictions
How this works: These forecasts are based on 100,000 simulations of the rest of the season. Elo ratings — which power the pure Elo forecast — are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. Our CARMELO forecast doesn’t account for wins and losses; it is based entirely on our CARMELO player projections, which estimate each player’s future performance based on the trajectory of other, similar NBA players. Read more »
Design and development by Jay Boice, Rachael Dottle, Ella Koeze and Gus Wezerek. Statistical model by Nate Silver. Additional contributions by Neil Paine. Illustration by Elias Stein.
NBA Player Projections
Our projection system identifies similar players throughout NBA history and uses them to develop a probabilistic forecast of what a current NBA player’s future might look like.
December 14, 2020
What The Pandemic Revealed About American Politics
In this episode of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses the challenges presented by both the ongoing pandemic and President Trump’s continued attempts to overturn the election results.
What The COVID-19 Vaccine Means For The Political Battles To Come
In this episode of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses the challenges presented by both the ongoing pandemic and President Trump’s continued attempts to overturn the election results.
Politics Podcast: Why Republicans Still Doubt The Election Results
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The two biggest stories of 2020 in the U.S. — the pandemic and the election — are finding some closure today, though each is really just entering its next phase. The conflicts and challenges presented by both the pandemic and President Trump’s attempts to overturn the election results are not over. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast, the crew discusses how we got to this moment and what comes next.
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes , the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen .
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes . Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.
December 8, 2020
Why The GOP Isn’t Able To Win The Popular Vote
In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses how an incumbent president lost the 2020 election and considers the electoral challenges facing the Republican Party. The team also checks in the state of the Senate runoff elections in Georgia.
Politics Podcast: The Electoral Challenges Facing The Republican Party
By Galen Druke, Nate Silver and Perry Bacon Jr., Galen Druke, Nate Silver and Perry Bacon Jr. and Galen Druke, Nate Silver and Perry Bacon Jr.
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The November election was the seventh time in eight elections that Republicans lost the national popular vote and was a rare loss for an incumbent president. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew asks why President Trump lost and considers the challenges facing the Republican Party electorally. They also check in on FiveThirtyEight’s newly launched polling average of the Senate runoff elections in Georgia.
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes , the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen .
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes . Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.
December 7, 2020
Latest Polls Of The Georgia Senate Runoff Elections
Latest Polls On The Georgia Senate RunoffsTwo runoff elections on Jan. 5 will determine which party controls the Senate
No candidate in either of Georgia’s Senate races won a majority on Nov. 3, triggering a runoff for both seats, with the top two candidates in each race facing off. Control of the Senate now hinges on the outcome of these two races.
Georgia’s regular Senate election
Republican Sen. David Perdue is running for reelection against Democrat Jon Ossoff in a regularly scheduled election.
Nov. 9Nov. 28Dec. 17Jan. 54045505560%Perdue 47.9%Ossoff 48.7%DEC. 4 LEADEROssoff+0.8DEC. 4 LEADEROssoff
Georgia’s special Senate election
Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler faces Democrat Raphael Warnock in a special election. Loeffler was appointed to fill former Sen. Johnny Isakson’s seat after he resigned.
Nov. 9Nov. 28Dec. 17Jan. 54045505560%Loeffler 47.0%Warnock 49.2%DEC. 4 LEADERWarnock+2.2DEC. 4 LEADERWarnock
The Senate currently stands at 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats. If Democrats win both runoffs, the party will have control of the chamber because Vice President-elect Kamala Harris would break any ties. But if Republicans win one of the two races, they will maintain control.
All runoff polls
FiveThirtyEight’s averages use all runoff polls conducted since the Nov. 3 general election. We adjust polls for house effects based on how much each poll differs from the polling consensus.
DATES
POLLSTER
SAMPLE
PERDUE
OSSOFF
LEADER
ADJUSTED LEADER
LOEFFLER
WARNOCK
LEADER
ADJUSTED LEADER
DEC. 1-3
C-Trafalgar Group
1,083
LV
47%
48%
Ossoff +1
Ossoff +3
50%
45%
Loeffler +5
Tie
NOV. 27-30
ASurveyUSA
583
LV
48%
50%
Ossoff +2
Ossoff +2
45%
52%
Warnock +7
Warnock +6
NOV. 19-24
B/CRMG Research
1,377
LV
47%
48%
Ossoff +1
Ossoff +1
46%
48%
Warnock +2
Warnock +2
NOV. 16
B-InsiderAdvantage
800
LV
49%
49%
Tie
Tie
48%
49%
Warnock +1
Warnock +1
NOV. 10
VCreek/AMG
300
LV
50%
46%
Loeffler +4
Tie
NOV. 8-9
C-Remington Research Group
1,450
LV
50%
46%
Perdue +4
Perdue +3
49%
48%
Loeffler +1
Tie
Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Our polling averages weight polls by pollster reliability, recency and sample size.
Download this data: polls, trend lines.
Design and development by Aaron Bycoffe. Statistical model by Nate Silver. Dhrumil Mehta and Mary Radcliffe contributed research.
December 1, 2020
Democrats’ 2020 House And Senate Map Could Spell Trouble In Future Elections
In this episode of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses the challenges Democrats faced in House, Senate and state legislature races — and whether it was a good use of polling to survey preferences for the 2024 Republican primary before President Trump has even left the White House.
November 30, 2020
Politics Podcast: Why Did Down-Ballot Democrats Have Such A Mediocre Showing?
By Galen Druke, Perry Bacon Jr., Clare Malone and Nate Silver, Galen Druke, Perry Bacon Jr., Clare Malone and Nate Silver, Galen Druke, Perry Bacon Jr., Clare Malone and Nate Silver and Galen Druke, Perry Bacon Jr., Clare Malone and Nate Silver
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Biden’s 2020 electoral map was ultimately a pretty good one for Democrats. While several states may have been closer than Democrats would have liked, Biden won back the “blue wall” states in the Upper Midwest and expanded Democrats’ map in the Sun Belt. He also won a record breaking 80 million votes nationally. Democrats down-ballot can’t quite say the same, though. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses the challenges that the party faced in House, Senate and state legislature races. They also ask whether it was a good use of polling to survey preferences for the 2024 Republican primary before Trump has even left the White House.
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes , the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen .
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes . Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.
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