it is a mathematically valid position to use a subjective probability to represent the prior state of uncertainty of a subject matter expert. In fact, there are problems in statistics that can only be solved by using a probabilistically
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“Not everything that happens happens for a reason, but everything that survives survives for a reason.”
― Skin in the Game: Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life
― Skin in the Game: Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life
“Because what matters in life isn’t how frequently one is “right” about outcomes, but how much one makes when one is right. Being wrong, when it is not costly, doesn’t count—in a way that’s similar to trial-and-error mechanisms of research.”
― Skin in the Game: Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life
― Skin in the Game: Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life
Corey’s 2024 Year in Books
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