Duc

“To figure out whether a decision is good or bad, you need to know not just the things that might reasonably happen and what could be gained or lost, but also the likelihood of each possibility unfolding. That means, to become a better decision-maker, you need to be willing to estimate those probabilities.”
― Annie Duke, How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices

“Andrew Mauboussin and Michael Mauboussin came up with this pretty comprehensive list of these types of terms for a survey they conducted: Almost always More often than not Serious possibility Almost certainly Never Slam dunk Always Not often Unlikely Certainly Often Usually Frequently Possibly With high probability Likely Probably With low probability Maybe Rarely With moderate probability Might happen Real possibility”
― Annie Duke, How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices

“If you’re like most people, you were pretty surprised by these results. Most of us aren’t aware of the wide range of what these words mean to different people. We assume that when we use a term, other people use it in the same way we do and mean the same thing we do.”
― Annie Duke, How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices

“Some of these terms had startlingly wide ranges, which I imagine you experienced in your four-person survey. For instance, “real possibility” had a range of about 20% to 80%. A quarter of the people taking the survey thought the term meant 40% of the time or less. A quarter thought it meant 40% to 60%. A quarter thought it meant 60% to 75%. Finally, a quarter thought it meant over 75% of the time.”
― Annie Duke, How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices