World, Writing, Wealth discussion
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If you're not in the U.S., what's up in your part of the world?
J.J. wrote: "....why not force them to accept West Bank rule and grant a right to travel between the two portions in whatever peace treaty they would come up with?..."That's how it was, until their armed coup against Palestinian authority. Maybe one day and if both parts peaceful - sure, the travel can be organized. Looks like the conflagration in its final stages. Biden called Bibi 4 times this week - yesterday already urging to wind down the military operation
I remain convinced that a ceasefire alone will merely store up tension for further outbursts whenever. Currently it seems a seven-year cycle operates.Also, in my opinion, peace is going to requires a serious concession to the Palestinians, who, one way or another, feel extremely aggrieved over al Naqba - the "forced displacements". Most Israelis probably don't know what happened if the retired Chief Archivist Yaacov Lukowicz is correct when he stated in the Jerusalem Post (hardly the most anti Israeli medium) "95% of archives from 1946 - 1948 are suppressed" and apparently will remain so for 90 years. This is allegedly for national security, but how could national security be involved now, unless al Naqba really was extremely unjust?
Ian wrote: "Nik, I agree that in 1947 the Palestinians should have recognised the inevitable, even it it was unfair, and negotiated, but they didn't and there is nothing we can do about that now. Of course som..."Except that would not be enough because it is never enough.
Ian wrote: "For the purposes of this discussion, I am calling Palestinians all the people who lived in the territory called Palestine, at least by maps in laces like Wikipedia, less the Jews who lived there, because they will now call themselves Israelis, which is fair enough..."You are not answering the question I actually asked. I am not trying to play gotcha, but it does matter in the bigger question. Do you know when Palestinians started calling themselves Palestinians and why?
Ian wrote: "In my opinion, it is too much to expect that anyone in Gaza will stand up to Hamas, let alone ask, "What was that for?" The more the damage, the more people need whoever is ruling to help, and Hama..."Hamas was voted in and did not run a coup. They are the legitimately elected government of the Gaza Palestinians. It is not about standing up to them. They were elected, so that is what they got.
Papaphilly asked: "At what time did the Arabs decide to be called Palestinians?" I don't know. According to Wikipedia, during the Ottoman empire, the area was divided into five administrations because the Ottomans had this habit of administering things around the major cities, and they chose the five biggest cities. When the Ottomans were defeated, the British took an areas and with mapmakers called it Palestine. The League of nations called it Palestine. The soldiers with my father-in-law called it Palestine when he was there, but I have no idea when the locals again called it Palestine. Palestine was used earlier. Incidentally, Wikipedia says the number of Jews during the crusader period was about 1000 poor families.
Papaphilly, to argue "it is never enough" is also to argue we should give up. Maybe, but I think a reasonable effort should be made. Maybe Hamas did win an election. Elections in some places are odd events. I can think of places like Zimbabwe, Belorus, and Iraq under Saddam where elections were won with huge majorities.
Ian wrote: "....Most Israelis probably don't know what happened if the retired Chief Archivist Yaacov Lukowicz is correct when he stated in the Jerusalem Post (hardly the most anti Israeli medium) "95% of archives from 1946 - 1948 are suppressed" and apparently will remain so for 90 years. This is allegedly for national security, but how could national security be involved now, unless al Naqba really was extremely unjust?..."Assuming the archives are closed in Israel, but not the Palestinian ones, right? Not the Wikipedia, explaining it extensively.
But let's try to think of what makes more sense. There are fewer Jews than Arabs in the British ruled territory in 1947-48. Jews barely have arms, since there is an embargo and only Czech and Meir Lanski supplied them. Sure, there were those who fled the conflict, but more, I imagine, left because imams told them the Arab armies will kick Jews into the Med and they'd be able to return soon. They just lost the war. How many refugees from 40-ies alive today? Not many I imagine. Their 2-3 generation of descendants can and should stand well on their own living in friendly Arab or Muslim countries.
And if it was so awful, why nothing bad happened to those Arabs, who just stayed and didn't flee, and which descendants now make roughly 15% of Israel's population?
Papaphilly wrote: ".... Hamas was voted in and did not run a coup. They are the legitimately elected government of the Gaza Palestinians. It is not about standing up to them. They were elected, so that is what they got...."After winning the elections they killed their Fatah compatriots in Gaza https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_...
I want to congratulate the people of Gaza with a great victory: https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/202... If that's what they want that's what they get. Well done, it was surely worth it. If anyone feels they are heroes, I can't help him/her :)We can clearly see two different civilizations here. One is happy to sacrifice its infrastructure and risk their civilians to get a chance to shoot at Tel Aviv in the name of Al Aqsa, while another is content with eliminating most out of its bank of targets with minimal losses on their side and among unengaged.
Ian wrote: ".....Incidentally, Wikipedia says the number of Jews during the crusader period was about 1000 poor families...."Don't know whether crusaders were meticulous in keeping voters register, but where is your outcry about most Jews being forced to leave their ancestral land?
Nik wrote: "Ian wrote: "....Most Israelis probably don't know what happened if the retired Chief Archivist Yaacov Lukowicz is correct when he stated in the Jerusalem Post (hardly the most anti Israeli medium) ..."Many questions, Nik. The answers to all would be in the suppressed archives, assuming the Chief Archivist of Israel up to 2018 was not lying through his teeth. I have no idea whether there are Palestinian archives. If there are, where are they? They don't have an official government to keep them. My question is, what is in the Israeli archives? Maybe everything is as sweet as Nik would hope for, but then why ar ethey suppressed. Unfortunately, Lukowicz gave no clue as to what was in them - maybe they were also blocked to him?
Nik wrote: "Papaphilly wrote: ".... Hamas was voted in and did not run a coup. They are the legitimately elected government of the Gaza Palestinians. It is not about standing up to them. They were elected, so ..."Which goes to show how fair that electoral process was.
Nik wrote: "I want to congratulate the people of Gaza with a great victory: https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/202... If that's what they want that's what they get. Well done..."I suspect that the victory Hamas would claim is that they persuaded the world to actually look at the problem. A rather expensive way of going about it, and utterly pointless unless they follow up with a proposal for how to end this chaos. To do that they would have to put a proposal on the table that the world would see as reasonable and try to force Israel to accept, or at least negotiate in good faith. My guess is they have no interest in forming a plausible solution, so, Nik, my vote goes to stating they are fools, unless of course such a prosal emerges int eh enxt few days. Hold not your breath.
Nik Wrote: "Don't know whether crusaders were meticulous in keeping voters register," The few Jews actually allied themselves with the Muslims, so I doubt the Crusaders would be keeping records of them :-)"but where is your outcry about most Jews being forced to leave their ancestral land?" Funnily enough, I was not around to lodge a formal complaint to the SPQR, but that cheeky complaint does warrant a cheeky response :-) The revolt put down by the two T. Flavius Vespasianae was actually preceded by a near revolt under the imperium of G. Julius Caesar (the one known as Caligulae). I describe this in my ebook "Athene's Prophecy", which by a complete coincidence (really) is on discount until May 27 [see, I said I would be cheeky :-)] in which my MC expresses my views on that situation. (OK, stretching for relevance, but...) Anyway, to see my views on that matter you have to spend 99c. Well worth it, of course. :-)
For those that are interested in that peculiar piece of history that is largely overlooked, i also include, in the resolution part occurring in Rome, a transcript (translated, of course) of what occurred by Philo of Alexandria (a Jew) that will give most of you a completely different view of Caligulae. (Note, all the Romans admitted their less than beloved Imperator had two feet.) Foretunately, copyright on Philo's writings have expired
Good luck with the promo, Ian! With expectations of currencies getting worthless, surely, not the worst way to spend an almost 1 usd :)
Ian wrote: "Nik wrote: "Papaphilly wrote: ".... Hamas was voted in and did not run a coup. They are the legitimately elected government of the Gaza Palestinians. It is not about standing up to them. They were ..."Are you insinuating that Hamas stole the election? In this case, I think that is wrong. Fatah was so inept that Hamas won fairly. they ran as something other than Fatah, then did what they did. I this may be a case of getting what you asked for, but not what you want.
Ian wrote: "Papaphilly, to argue "it is never enough" is also to argue we should give up. Maybe, but I think a reasonable effort should be made. Maybe Hamas did win an election. Elections in some places are od..."My point is that reasonable efforts have been made and rejected every time by the Palestinians. I am also saying the Palestinians have done this to themselves and have left nothing but ash for themselves.
Ian wrote: "Papaphilly asked: "At what time did the Arabs decide to be called Palestinians?" I don't know. According to Wikipedia, during the Ottoman empire, the area was divided into five administrations beca..."I am not being a wiseguy on this one. I truly wanted to know if you knew. It happened after The Six Day War (1967). It was then that they decided to call themselves Palestinians to garner sympathy. Prior to that, they were just called Arabs. now do not get me wrong, I am simplifying a bit, but that is the gist.
Papaphilly, I have no idea how valid the election was, but it seems to me intimidation was part of it, given the losers ran into big trouble. Also, I think I have tried to say several times that Fatah has been weak and inept. As for what the Palestinians thought of themselves as, they may have spoken Arabic, but everyone else called them Palestinians. I am not even sure they called themselves anything. And far from doing this to themselves, what you are saying is they did not do what everyone else wanted them to do. They felt they had property stolen from them. How valid that is is actually beside the point, unless you can prove they were willing sellers. As it turns out they would have been better to take the loss early, but that is easy for us to say, sitting back with no skin in the game. Ther is no reason why they should do what others want, unless others offer them something in compensation. The real problem was that when something was offered, they had no clear idea what would be acceptable, hence they could not negotiate. You never get what you want if you don't know what it is.As an example, they could have gone into the 1990s negotiation demanding the removal of the settlers, as per my suggestion above. Whether they would have got it is another matter, but at least they put something on the table to counter what they don't want. Their problem was that Fatah simply did not appreciate the situation and had no plans, or if they did they kept them to themselves, which is a strategy bound to fail in a negotiation
Nik wrote: "Good luck with the promo, Ian! With expectations of currencies getting worthless, surely, not the worst way to spend an almost 1 usd :)"Thanks, Nik. Good luck is never turned down by me :-)
Ian wrote: "Papaphilly, I have no idea how valid the election was, but it seems to me intimidation was part of it, given the losers ran into big trouble. Also, I think I have tried to say several times that Fa..."There is a map called the green line. It shows just how interwoven everything was during the negotiations. It is very interesting to look at. There were negotiations ongoing when the Jews were attacked. They ended up with everything because they won.
As for the Palestinians, I do not think they were intimidated into the vote. Hamas won in Gaza and there was a unity government that fell apart due to infighting with Fatah. My history is a bit hazy, but I think originally Hamas in Gaza was not anti Jew, but anti PLO and became anti Israel later. In its charter is going to liberate Palestine from Israel and set up an Islamic state. it does not mean the West bank, but all of Israel. How do you negotiate with that?
In any negotiation you have to take in some things you are prepared to concede and give away, and some bottom line which, if you cannot get that much you walk. If you do not think the other side could possibly agree to your bottom line, you are merely wasting time attending. Obviously, asking for the end to Israel is an absolute impossibility. The problem now is that this farce will continue until someone removes Hamas because with that bottom line, they will never negotiate and will always return fighting. Fatah has no show of forcing Hamas out. I have no idea whether the election was fair, but I doubt the next one in Gaza will be.So the ball is now in Israel's court. They can either wait for a return of violence and kill a whole lot more innocent Palestinians and others together with the odd Hamas operative, or eventually send in ground forces. If anyone has a further alternative, feel free to let us all know.
Ian wrote: "In any negotiation you have to take in some things you are prepared to concede and give away, and some bottom line which, if you cannot get that much you walk. If you do not think the other side co..."I am not disagreeing with you, but they were elected. They are a disaster, but then the entire operation is a disaster.
I'm following this discussion with interest, and I'm learning a lot. Ian, how would Israel sending in ground forces be the best solution?
Scout, it is not so much the best solution. However, given the attitude of the parties, namely Hamas is determined to end Israel and will accept nothing else and will continue these attacks from time to time, as far as I can see it is the only solution, given that a solution has to end the problem. The only options that end this killing is to sign a peace treaty that recognises Israel as a legitimate entity or to remove one of the two sides, and the only one that can do that is Israel.
Scout wrote: "I'm following this discussion with interest, and I'm learning a lot. Ian, how would Israel sending in ground forces be the best solution?"Replying to both you and Ian, sending troops into Gaza may become inevitable, if nothing else forces them to stop firing missiles, but generally - not a very good idea.
First, Israel may be well armed, but it's not a powerhouse that can do what it wants. Ground incursion would necessarily involve much more casualties, since the "brave heroes" from Gaza are unlikely to fight from the open, but use a "civilian shield" instead, and an international pressure to stop the incursion, even from Israel's friends, would follow soon or even before it starts.
Second, when dismantling hamas one should be ready with what comes next. Everyone knows assad is a bloody tyrant, yet it became sort of an unwritten understanding that better him than chaos. The same with hamas - you don't know what would fill the void once it's gone. As of now, their ally and the second force in Gaza is islamic jihad - a direct iranian proxy.
While an alternative of the return of Israeli military rule there and imposing of martial law, would be a serious step back. Who's interested in ruling Palestinians? Israel has only security concerns, while zero ambition in governing Palestinians, which are autonomous - 100% in Gaza and over 90% in the West Bank.
Third, the current status quo proves remarkably sustainable. hamas doesn't represent an existential threat. They can be hostile, all they want. As long as there are other means to deter them from firing rockets - it might work. Egypt (a regular go-between) is talking about brokering a long term truce. Don't know whether viable or not. We have hamas style - hizballah, sitting on our northern border, which is a much stronger and trained in Syrian war opponent, yet they are reluctant to enter a rocket adventure, because of the price Lebanon would pay for it. Maybe the same deterrence can be reached vs hamas too. Peace with them might be unattainable, but lack of peace doesn't necessarily means war. Don't know now, but up until recently - the WW2 war between Russia and Japan was never formally ended, because of a territorial dispute over a few islands in the Pacific, but it's not like Japan would attempt to take them by military force.
Forth, every once in a while Palestinians attempt to achieve a reconciliation between themselves. Although it goes on for decades, but maybe one day, they'll succeed.
Meanwhile, hamas political leadership lives comfortably out of Gaza in Lebanon and Qatar, enjoys lavish donations and luxurious lifestyle.
Nik, I didn't say military intervention was desirable; I merely said it was the only option unless Hamas comes to their senses and works for the people instead of their dream that cannot come to pass. They might come to their senses and negotiate, but there is no evidence they will, and anyway most the negotiating points that are contentious (land, water, etc) involve the West Bank and Jerusalem.A proper peace treaty with the West Bank and where Gaza would be invited to join when they accept the West Bank treaty might work. When the Palestinians benefit and then seriously improve their lives and become optimistic might force the Gazan people to accept the inevitable, but this depends heavily on an acceptable treaty with the West Bank.
So back away form IsraelUK full of stories about what one liar may have said about other liars all with the benefit of hindsight that great leveller
Indian variant of COVID causing concern that restrictions can't be lifted as planned in June
Belarus actions
Hungary PM visiting
Philip wrote: "... one liar may have said about other liars all with the benefit of hindsight that great leveller..."If these are not used cars salesmen, I'd suspect politicians :) What's that about?
The local school bully threatens to push the little kid over.QUOTE: "Australia's military is too weak to be a worthy opponent of China, and if it dares to interfere in a military conflict for example in the Taiwan Straits, its forces will be among the first to be hit, Song said. "Australia must not think it can hide from China if it provokes."
Australia is within range of China's conventional warhead-equipped DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missile, observers pointed out."
REF: https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/20210...
Maybe the little kid should think about this more and stop poking the bully with a very blunt stick?
Nik wrote: "Philip wrote: "... one liar may have said about other liars all with the benefit of hindsight that great leveller..."If these are not used cars salesmen, I'd suspect politicians :) What's that ab..."
Dominic Cummings testimony. e.g. in Feb Prime Minister said and did ex therefore causing y because z was not done. Failing to note that in Feb UK had 1 recorded case, but Pm failed to lock down close borders etc etc.
Test promise to prevent hospital's sending back to care home without negative test. Only possible if there are enough tests but that iis not mentioned.
Still the row about wallpaper which concentrated the MSM for several days is done. PM did not break code and nor did Hancock for some NHS contracts. Did not stop opposition parties and press for claiming they had for weeks...
Ian wrote: "Maybe the little kid should think about this more and stop poking the bully with a very blunt stick?"Don't worry. It won't be long until the CCP makes it clear to New Zealand who owns who.
Malaysia, government / system collapse imminent.
Graeme wrote: "The local school bully threatens to push the little kid over.QUOTE: "Australia's military is too weak to be a worthy opponent of China, and if it dares to interfere in a military conflict for exa..."
And anyone believe that? Really? They have no navy.
Papaphilly, really? Then what is all this about?https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/05/ch...
J., then who does own who?
To clarify my remark, the NZ policy on China compares roughly with that of Singapore to China. Exactly what Peter Dutton thinks he will achieve by making bellicose statements about China is unclear here, but NZ is not exactly happy with Dutton following his "taking out the trash" speech and follow-through.
When you do something, you should be aiming to get a benefit. China is NZ's biggest single export market and exactly why should we put that at risk to make the likes of Dutton feel happy? Australia is in a slightly better position because China currently cannot do without the haematite but they can do without our exports. Meanwhile, what would the effect of anything we do could really do more than irritate China?
Ian wrote: "Papaphilly, really? Then what is all this about?https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/05/ch... ..."
So what? When was the last naval engagement China fought? Who is going to command their boats? What Admirals do they have? They are being bellicose because that is all they have to use.
They have little blue water navy. Close to shore ships? So what? their navy is just like the army, built for domestic policing, not international power projection.
Ian wrote: "J., then who does own who?"The CCP has been hard at work on your islands:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/202...
They have an internal foothold and, as you pointed out, they have massive economic influence over your country. I wonder how they will punish Kiwi dissent. I suppose that we could ask Brazil.
https://youtu.be/McEGJrYDqcs
Papaphilly wrote: "Ian wrote: "Papaphilly, really? Then what is all this about?https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/05/ch... ..."
So what? When was the last naval engagement China fought? Who is going to command their b..."
It is true that China has no recent experience at naval battles, but who has? The US has by far the biggest navy, but it has not fought anyone of comparable technological ability in the life of any current sailors. Yes, it has fired cruise missiles at Syrians, etc, but while it has been more active, I has not fought naval battles, and an interesting fact about warfare is that in times of technological change, people who fight with the tools of the last war run into trouble.
Like Russia, China will be nervous about the US, but it is unlikely it will start a war, other than in a couple of miscalculation. These involve the South China Sea, and Taiwan. In the first, there is an interesting question as to the status of "man-made islands" that are habited? Are they legitimately part of your territory? If not, why not?
China has never shown any sign of wanting to project long-distance military power. It is more interested in developing economic power across Asia and Africa.
J. wrote: "Ian wrote: "J., then who does own who?"The CCP has been hard at work on your islands:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/202...
The..."
The link says it is more than nine months old. Actually, the events it describes are a lot older than that. As for not supplying Brazil with the vaccine, I suspect that is because they haven't got enough anyway. China will be trying to be friendly with Brazil because Brazil is its second source of hematite, and if they end up denied by Australia, Brazil is their only option.
However, as for retaliation, that is a good reason for our government not to make pointless and stupid announcements like Dutton has. It is one thing to do things that have a point, another to simply be loud-mouthed. The taking away of the rights to Hong Kong would not have hurt the Chinese; it would be interpreted as recognition that Hong Kong technically is part of China. And yes, we are not that keen on losing 30% of our export income, but equally I suspect that China still wants us to continue purchasing a lot of its manufactured goods.
Ian wrote: "Papaphilly wrote: "Ian wrote: "Papaphilly, really? Then what is all this about?https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/05/ch... ..."
So what? When was the last naval engagement China fought? Who is going..."
The entire man made island argument is really about trying to dislodge America from the South China sea. They can be plugged up in an instant and it is the very last thing they want us to be able to do. they had already lost in the world court and they of course ignored it and I cannot blame them either. It is really about the projection of power, which they just do not have.
For further understanding, you should look up a guy named George Friedman on You Tube. He is my go to for Geopolitics.
Ian wrote: "J. wrote: "Ian wrote: "J., then who does own who?"The CCP has been hard at work on your islands:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/202......"
As for stupid politicians, you do not have the market cornered. i would not worry about China and retaliation. There are other markets and China will blather, but not lift a finger. Yet at the same time, it is not particularly smart to anger your biggest customer.
Not so sure about the other markets, but since it is food we are mainly selling and there are a growing number of rich Chinese that want as better choice we are not extremely worried. On the other hand, it is a little stupid to annoy the Chinese for no good reason in a way that cannot gain you anything.
As for what is happening here, we are having floods. There is a gigantic low pressure system with an area as big as Australia. It is funnelling tropical air from around Samoa and dumping the moisture in streams that are flooding Canterbury, but rather unfortunately are not doing much for the hydro lakes. Meanwhile Australia's PM is here for talks in Queenstown. A number of events were put on, like a transtasman football match, but with Victoria's Covid outburst that has been moved to Sydney. And the weather is simply depositing snow everywhere. The good news is the skifields are open in May - this almost never happens - but I don't think ScoMo skis.
See a change of gov in Israel is imminent.UK Prime Minister got married
Warm sunshine at last - cue stories of people sunbathing...
Enjoy it, Philip. 6 months later and its all gone :-(
Ian wrote: "Enjoy it, Philip. 6 months later and its all gone :-("Which part? The change in Gov, the marriage, the sunshine...
The sunshine, Graeme :-) Why would Philp particularly enjoy Boris' marriage? You are implying what about wife? As for the Israeli gov., do even Israelis enjoy that? [Nik might comment here :-) ]
World, Writing, Wealth
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Give the West Bank independence on agreeable terms, and deal with the settlements, and leave Gaza the option of joining when it commits to the peace agreement with Israel might work, but the West Bank has to have a serious win so that the Gazan's turn their backs on Hamas.