World, Writing, Wealth discussion
World & Current Events
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If you're not in the U.S., what's up in your part of the world?
Graeme wrote: "....At some point in the next twenty years they will attack your pacific fleet in the Eastern Pacific...."As USSR and US avoided open confrontation, despite tensions peaking every once in a while, hopefully major collisions can be prevented from deteriorating, but once Chinese and US economies sufficiently disentangle and if the pressure keeps rising, all kinda things become possible to pop a pimple
I suspect that if it were not for the possibility of a major oil field in the South China Sea, there would be no real tension if China can disentangle itself from the US market. One of the issues that may be a problem for the US is how to manage its deficit. Currently it is selling bonds, but one of the biggest purchasers has been China, and now China is trying to unload its bonds and is unlikely to buy more in the near future.
I will tell you what Graeme,Let us meet in twenty years and you can buy me a drink over this because the Chinese Navy does not and will not have the power to move the American Navy. They have no Navy now and you think they are going to move the United States? Let me ask a question, even if they build 1000 ships, who is going to man them and lead them?
Just to give you something to think about, the Chinese and Indians fought in disputed land the and the Indians gave them a beating. This is the group that is going to take us on?
Graeme wrote: "The Thousand Talents plan:"The Thousand Talents Plan (TTP) (Chinese: 千人计划; pinyin: Qiān rén jìhuà) or Thousand Talents Program (Chinese: 海外高层次人才引进计划; pinyin: Hǎiwài gāo céngcì réncái yǐnjìn jìhuà..."
Good luck to them. It is bound to fail because the Communists do not let people think for themselves and they think they can steal their way to the top? It does not work like that in the end.
The last nation to carry out a major attack on the US Navy was the Empire of Japan.
Papaphilly wrote: "I will tell you what Graeme,Let us meet in twenty years and you can buy me a drink over this because the Chinese Navy does not and will not have the power to move the American Navy. They have no ..."
Hey, I hope I'm wrong.
I don't think the India/China clash is relevant. Its location is terrible and unless China wanted to try to conquer India, why would it persist? It is stupid to start a war you have no idea how to win, and just squabbling on that border achieves nothing. As for India, it has enough trouble in Kashmir as it is. This was just a small squabble that Beijing would not want to see get out of hand.I saw one news clip that suggested that China has and is building a number of ships. How relevant that is, I don't know but as for who is going to man ships, whatever else China is short of, people isn't one of them. Sure they are not trained, yet, but that can be dealt with. Another point to recall is that modern wars are seldom fought the same way the previous one was. The first thing China would do before taking on the US is to have a means of sinking carriers. Equally, wars are not always sufficiently controlled that you have them when you are ready.
As I said above, China will not want a war with the US because it cannot defeat the US because it cannot get at it, but if there is a war, it will not be a walkover for the US by any means. I hope there will not be one.
UK Headlines this morning - no priorityBrexit trade discussions
India overtakes Brazil with COVID cases
Birmingham knife attacks arrest made
Manchester Arena bombing formal public inquiry
Djokovic stupidity
Philip, I'd like to hear about what you've mentioned in more detail.I just have to say that I feel China is a threat. Just because they're far away in geography doesn't mean that they can't use other means to undermine the US. They're constantly stealing our technology. They've bought enormous amounts of property in the US, according to marketwatch.com: https://www.investopedia.com/articles...
In 2018 dollars, Chinese buyers accounted for roughly 25% of total foreign investment in U.S. residential real estate. Canada was No. 2 at 9%.
Of the 284,000 properties sold to foreign buyers last year, some 40,400, or 15%, were bought by Chinese nationals.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/chi....
We owe a huge amount of money to China. According to Investopedia.com, "It seems as if every American politician and talking head is expressing concern about the huge amount of debt that the U.S. government owes Chinese lenders. The Chinese do own a lot of U.S. debt—about $1.1 trillion as of early 2020."
https://www.investopedia.com/articles....
Look at the above and add to that their investment in military, and I don't see how anyone can believe that China's not a threat.
Scout, the problem that you owe a lot to China is hardly China's fault, and the fact it is swamped with USD meant that it was obvious it would purchase assets in the US. What else was it supposed to do with it?Right now, if China stops buying up US debt and sells out as many Treasury bonds as it can, what happens then? The usual answer is if someone is in debt to you of a trillion $, YOU have the problem, and China has that problem right now. Of course, the US government will probably have to change its deficit ways sooner or later, but it has the great advantage it can really simply print money. As long as everyone will accept it, it is fine, and China is in a rather poor position.
I agree with Scout. China is a future threat.I have always found it interesting how much science fiction written by English authors provide for planets and space cultures speaking some form of Chinese as the universal language. I think a lot of science fiction if predicative of the future
Hi ScoutBrexit - 8th round of future trade relationship negotiations are underway with both sides stating an agreement is needed by 17th Oct of allow of ratification process in EU. Arguments are exactly the same as they were during Brexit debate being trotted out by same people.
1. Main issues remain Republic of Ireland (EU and Euro) and Northern Ireland (UK and Pound) land border.
2. Access rights for EU to UK fisheries EU wants to maintain EU access.
3. State Aid rules - EU want UK to abide by EU rules.
4. Trade paperwork for main UK to EU border ports - all want to keep it simple
5. Dispute process - UK rejects ECJ but EU want ECJ
Fundamentally UK has left EU but EU wants control whereas UK wants similar agreements to other EU trade relationships e.g. 3,4,5 do not apply to Canada as an example so why should they to UK.
Covid Reporting - still main headlines all round world and UK numbers again increasing - lockdown being reimposed in may areas and general rules extended - most cases are in 18-30 age group. deaths increasing again. France/Spain/Netherlands even worse.
Birmingham knife attacks - man arrested and charged with murder/assault - no motive provided yet
Manchester arena inquiry headlines so far are incompetent response from police and emergency services one paramedic in arena only for over 40 minutes - probably leading to deaths of several victims.
Lizzie wrote: "I agree with Scout. China is a future threat...."It's interesting to hear what's meant under "threat". If it's a multi-polar world, where there isn't a hegemony of only one superpower - is that a threat or can different, often conflicting, ideologies co-exist?
Philip wrote: "Hi ScoutBrexit - 8th round of future trade relationship negotiations are underway with both sides stating an agreement is needed by 17th Oct of allow of ratification process in EU. Arguments are ..."
The Brexit part is fascinating. I agree with Philip that 3, 4 and 5 are just impositions. Similarly, fisheries access has to have some equivalent trade-off, and cannot be a demand. The Irish border, in my opinion, is easily solved from the British side - just leave the border more or less open but require registration if you want to cross the border to work. Each side has to meet the standards of the other side when exporting goods. Easy, if you want to make it work, but very difficult if there is general bad feeling.
Ian wrote: "Philip wrote: "Hi ScoutBrexit - 8th round of future trade relationship negotiations are underway with both sides stating an agreement is needed by 17th Oct of allow of ratification process in EU...."
Ireland as in Republic has had different currency, law and tax system from Northern Ireland since 1926. Leaving EU does not change this except in the minds of those who did not want and still do not want to leave. At the moment there is a tariff system and various legal declarations between EU nations the tariff is just set at 0%. in other agreements with other nations including EAA the tariffs vary and the amount of paperwork varies. An exporter/importer to/from EU to any other nation has to fill in this paperwork - it already exists it can be used by simply adding 27 countries for UK or one for EU to existing process - the rest is just political BS
Which is what I would have expected. I know it is a big effort to redesign forms, but it should not amount to anything of significance. The rest can be done through the usual taxation rules that are already in place, like VAT.
Philip wrote: "Hi ScoutBrexit - 8th round of future trade relationship negotiations are underway with both sides stating an agreement is needed by 17th Oct of allow of ratification process in EU. Arguments are ..."
I love this, they agree that a deal needs to be done, but then stipulate rules the guarantees that the deal cannot be done by then. This is going to be a messy divorce.
It will be and is. EU of course want UK to pay bill to leave which meets our commitments to longer term EU finding or continued participation in EU schemes (they have huge budget deficit to fill)More rows today on UK proposed bill to vary withdrawal agreement. Claims of breach of International law (from Brexit deniers) neglecting to mention that the withdrawal bill only applies if there is a trade agreement.
I give one example why this will be sorted. German car makers. UK accounts for 170,000 cars sale in 2019 for BMW alone. On 1st Jan BMW will continue to want to sell it's cars in UK, as will French wine and cheese makers, Dutch flower sellers and a host of others. EU exports more to UK than it imports from UK - who wants a trade deal?
As an aside, claims of breach of International law, as far as reported here, rest on breach of an agreement to agree reached previously, but in law such commitments lapse if the agreement is not ratified. If you cannot make commitments without prejudice to what happens when the total fails, nobody could ever negotiate anything. If the full agreement lapses, so do all the provisional commitments.
I wonder if the E.U. drags its feet long enough, do they think they can outlast the Brexiteers? They are offering nothing as far as I can tell and Great Britain is leaving. I cannot imagine leaving with a deal in the end.
I apologize for not understanding better what's going on there, and I've tried. How is all this affecting your daily lives?
Scout wrote: "I apologize for not understanding better what's going on there, and I've tried. How is all this affecting your daily lives?"No apology necessary it is very messy and complicated like any relationship that has lasted nearly 50 years
It isn't affecting daily lives at all. It might in January and it might not.
It might in terms of some intergovernmental cooperation but that is often a myth of words against action. It might in terms of extra bureaucracy in trade but only if the countries insist on it. E.g wanting more checks on good to ensure they comply with Eu regulations on 1st Jan when same goods on 31st Dec have no checks
Meanwhile if you want to see the EU in action take a look at Lesbos and EU support for Greece. For another example after the Salisbury poisoning EU promised action but Germany deepened its reliance on Russian Gas. Now with recent poisoning but it still continues to buy Russian gas.
As far as I read the Brexit soap opera continues with deadlines, points of no return, ultimatums and whatnot. No agreement would be detrimental to both sides, so I'd rather expect flexibility and common sense behind the play. As far as I understand the nearest deadline is 15.10, right?
Philip wrote: "It will be and is. EU of course want UK to pay bill to leave which meets our commitments to longer term EU finding or continued participation in EU schemes (they have huge budget deficit to fill)..."
I think a northern EU could work. Germany, France, Belgium, Netherlands, Austria - you know - much like the early days of the Third Reich - all one happy family under the economic dominion of the regional economic powerhouse - Germany....but this time without the tanks, Stukas and Messerschmitts
For me, it's no wonder that the UK wants to escape.
Of course, the economic basket cases of the EU, Spain, Portugal, Greece, Italy ensure that a common economic union has no future.
The EU project was over-ambitious. A bridge too far, attempting to weld together countries despite a lack of common culture, language, or economic power.
The strongest were always going to dominate the weaker and bleed those who they could. The UK has parted with far more money then they ever got back from the enterprise...
Scout, my life has not changed that much through the virus, but of course I have semi-retired. From a business point of view my previous client base has dried up. The virus has meant that businesses in general are hunkering down, not looking to do research. The skin gel business I am associated with is continuing to trade It was looking to expand exports, but the virus stopped that, at least temporarily. No business trips offshore - can't afford the barrage of quarantines involved.At a personal level in NZ, there are no cases of the Covid-19 within 300 km of where I live, so everyone is more or less going about their usual business, although businesses like cinemas are probably doing it tough, as are restaurants, and anything to do with tourists. So it is not exactly a happy time, but also not stressful unless you own an affected business. We have an election in a few weeks, and we are bombarded with political messages.
Scout wrote: "I apologize for not understanding better what's going on there, and I've tried. How is all this affecting your daily lives?"This is an academic exercise for me. I am neither pro nor anti Brexit. I am sitting on the sideline watching. I think for the E.U. it is a bigger deal than for Great Britain. The E.U. will try and punish G.B. to show the others how hard it can be to leave. I am not so sure it will work. there is a potential this is the first step on the E.U. failure. The idea is great, a United States of Europe. However, there is much more to Europe that this and there is both history and the lack of cultural ties. Mostly it seems to me that nationalism was not counted on as it has turned out. The movement of people from one nation to another has caused lots of friction and that cannot be discounted.
UK updatesCOVID's return - more restrictions, more cases, R number above 1, stark warnings. More quarantine countries. Detah rate staying low but not zero.
Brexit - two strands - planned legislation (huge political row - nice deflection ) and trade talks where UK has signed significant trade deal with Japan - EU will hate that as it covers more than EU deal with Japan.
Oregon and California fires being reported
Lesbos refugee camp fire
Lots of smaller virus related stories
Is UK seriously considering a shutdown?
Germany will hate then trade deal with Japan the most. NZ has no special trade deals with either Japan or the EU, so with equal opportunity, Japanese cars hugely outsell German cars followed by Korean cars doing the same. The German auto industry will lose a packet of sales. Japanese cars are about 2/3 the price and arguably of better quality.
A full shut down has been threatened and almost imposed in some local towns. The government is determined to get tougher on this.I think they will keep it as light as possible whilst very publicly cracking down on some examples. Even before new rules come in on Monday a 19 year old in Nottingham got a £10,000 fine for hosting a house party with 50 guests.
On Brexit, the EU is determined to make UK suffer for leaving even if it hurts themselves. Yes it will hurt UK too, if they behave stupidly albeit COVID probably lessons that impact as EU impact will be hidden in the overall numbers.
i am hoping that as with pre-EEC i.e. pre 1972, trade with the Commonwealth will return. In particular Caribbean islands for banana which Spain destroyed in EU agreements decimating those economies. I also hope that NZ and AUS trade will increase in all aspects. certainly trade with India, Indonesia and China will. That remains concern over Hong Kong i.e. UK wants trade with China but has to balance against their actions in Hong Kong as Australia does.
US trade deal remains on the cards (regardless of President). Trump is no fan of EU because of its blocks on some US products mainly portrayed as animal welfare (Mind you adding tariffs to EU products did not help EU or UK) I expect some big announcement which will add up to less than the headlines but a deal none the less.
Headlines this morning much the same - bad news coming from Oregon and California. Trump pronouncing that the forest floor should be swept is unfortunately another delusion - has he never been in one of these forests? How exactly would this clearance happen over millions of acres.
How to clear forest floors of scrub over large areas? My answer is to reintroduce large animals. Of course, it is a bit difficult to do that quickly, but wild deer, sheep and goats are not too bad at keeping down forest floor growth. Then knt4roduce more cougars and wolves, and hey, back to where it was a few hundred years ago. Of course, climate change is messing with that a bit, but . . .
Today is 80th anniversary of Battle of Britain although the battle raged for months 15th Sep is the date it is celebrated/ commemorated. As ex RAF it has special place in my background.Other news remains almost entirely COVID related from impact on economy to number of tests and who should have them.
Philip wrote: "Today is 80th anniversary of Battle of Britain although the battle raged for months 15th Sep is the date it is celebrated/ commemorated. As ex RAF it has special place in my background...."Why was September 15th picked as the date? I was reading about it but couldn't determine why specifically that date, especially considering the months it lasted.
The only date I remember from history in regards to Great Britain has always been October 14, 1066 - The Battle of Hastings. i think in our history books we were told it resulted in some monumental change in regards to people's rights, but I don't recall the details of that part - just the date. It was 52 years ago.
Lizzie wrote: "The only date I remember from history in regards to Great Britain has always been October 14, 1066 - The Battle of Hastings. i think in our history books we were told it resulted in some monumental change in regards to people's rights, but I don't recall the details of that part - just the date. It was 52 years ago...."William the Conqueror instituted the common law system that we all recognize.
I always thought the common law system we recognise really originated in the Great Charter, more or less imposed on John. From what I recall, the main influence of William was the Domesday book, which aided his universal taxation. I suppose we recognize that.
Lizzie wrote: "Philip wrote: "Today is 80th anniversary of Battle of Britain although the battle raged for months 15th Sep is the date it is celebrated/ commemorated. As ex RAF it has special place in my backgrou..."Mainly because the Luftwaffe changed tactics to The Blitz and the 15th was the first mass raid on London. Up to that point the focus of the attacks had been in destroying fighter command on the ground and in the air. (Eagle Strike). Tactically and strategically it was a massive error perhaps prompted by a small raid by the RAF on Berlin which allegedly upset Hitler so much he ordered Goering to change tactics.
By not attacking the RAF on the ground it left Fighter Command free to hunt the bombing raids which also suffered from lack of air cover from fighters due to lack of range. The change also exposed the Luftwaffe to the air defences of London which had been rapidly improved over the summer.
The Blitz not just on London but on other cities also led to an attitude toward mass civilian bombing in the hierarchy of the UK supported by the population. This in turn led to the horrors of Dresden. As with many things one thing leads to another.
My view is that if the Luftwaffe had continued the original campaign Operation Sea Lion (the invasion of UK) would still have foundered because the autumn was approaching and the deadly caused by the Battle of Britain had succeeded by then anyway.
On William and 1066 the battle data although published is not quite as clear cut - like the actual location (near Hastings) - we also have the Gregorian calendar change to contend with for all dates prior to 1752 in UK and the then fledgling US colonies. Unlike the Romans the Normans and Saxons were not as meticulous with record keeping.
The Doomsday book is still quoted today in some land discussions and as historical record for driving up property prices.
UK News todayCOVID
Testing COVID (new test announced 90 minute turnaround)
Test and Trace failings ignoring numbers successfully done
Increases in COVID in Europe, USA, and India. Argument in USA between CDC and Administration getting some notice.
Hurricane Sally some small reports but no headlines
Almost nothing else getting a mention
In Australia today:Increased numbers of Australians stranded overseas to be allowed to fly home, straight into quarantine. (Numbers per week have been capped for a fair while.) Most will go to NSW, QLD, and WA.
Diplomatic tensions with China continue to rise.
A Qantas flight to nowhere sold out in ten minutes.
Victoria's 7 day COVID average is now under 50 per day, which is great. But it turns out that several family groups flouting visiting laws have driven some of the recent caseloads. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-1...
In NZ today:Reserve bank predicts property prices will fall. Don Quixote in acfion here. No need for a Domesday book here - no matter what happens, property prices seem to go up.
I think we have had two days with no Covid cases
Opposition politicians are promising tax cuts. Election closing in.
Rugby tests against Australia moved to Sundays; one to avoid election day, and the other to make it look as if they weren't doing it for that reason
Ian wrote: "I always thought the common law system we recognise really originated in the Great Charter, more or less imposed on John. From what I recall, the main influence of William was the Domesday book, wh..."You are right.
William the Conqueror started to insert his law over the laws of his Barons and such. The idea of common law is it is the law common to whole land and not just what a Baron determined for his land. It started with him.
What you are referring to is accurate, John was forced to accept the Magna Carta, but I see this as more the start of civil law. It was the first attempt to set forth a set of given rights as compared to what a judge (King) decided is the law.
Leonie wrote: "In Australia today:Increased numbers of Australians stranded overseas to be allowed to fly home, straight into quarantine. (Numbers per week have been capped for a fair while.) Most will go to NS..."
I really find this funny. Actually getting on a plane to fly around and come back to where you started. I personally hate flying because of the issues getting through everything to get into a cramped seat. Yuck.
Ian wrote: "I always thought the common law system we recognise really originated in the Great Charter, more or less imposed on John. From what I recall, the main influence of William was the Domesday book, wh..."By the Great Charter and John, I am assuming you are referring to the Magna Carta. I think that is where my confusion came in from my childhood history book. In my memory, The Battle of Hastings gave us the Magna Carta, which is somewhat true, but still almost 150 years apart.
Papaphilly wrote: "Leonie wrote: "In Australia today:Increased numbers of Australians stranded overseas to be allowed to fly home, straight into quarantine. (Numbers per week have been capped for a fair while.) Mos..."
I found it funny too and not in a good laugh kind of way; more of a how stupid can people be, shake my head, and continue to avoid flying as much as possible as I drive on past the airport.
Lizzie wrote: "Papaphilly wrote: "Leonie wrote: "In Australia today:Increased numbers of Australians stranded overseas to be allowed to fly home, straight into quarantine. (Numbers per week have been capped for..."
I think it's because the case numbers here are so low, and a lot of Australians love to travel. (Today in NSW, we had a total of 2 cases - both in hotel quarantine. Mind you, there is a lot of effort going into contract tracing a taxi driver who was driving infectious for 8 days.)
Personally, I would also not be doing a flight to nowhere. However, once borders to WA open, I hope to visit my aged parents. (87 and 92.) My local area has had one COVID case, which was early on in the pandemic, and was acquired overseas. WA will only open its borders after Christmas, I suspect. Maybe. Depending on many things. 🤷♀️
World, Writing, Wealth
Books mentioned in this topic
1984 (other topics)Common Sense (other topics)
The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn (other topics)
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (other topics)
Lolita (other topics)
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Mel Brooks (other topics)Victor Davis Hanson (other topics)
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If China does spend more than the US it will have a lot of stuff because China tends to get more bang from its buck in manufacturing.