Wayne L. Winston's Blog, page 15
January 19, 2016
NFL Exponential Smoothing Ratings Jan 19
These ratings give more weight to more recent games and some weight to preseason Vegas over under win totals.
RANK
TEAM
RATING
1
SEA
10.9
2
CAR
9.8
3
KC
8.2
4
ARI
8.2
5
CINN
7.6
6
PITT
6.9
7
NE
6.1
8
MINN
5.7
9
DEN
4.7
10
GB
4.6
11
JETS
2.8
12
BUFF
1.7
13
WASH
0
14
DET
-0.2
15
HOU
-0.6
16
STL
-1.5
17
OAK
-2.4
18
GIANTS
-2.5
19
ATL
-2.6
20
BALT
-3.1
21
SD
-3.2
22
PHI
-3.2
23
CHI
-3.3
24
NO
-3.6
25
DALL
-4
26
MIA
-4.3
27
INDY
-4.9
28
SF
-6
29
TAMPA
-6.3
30
CLE
-6.6
31
JACK
-6.7
32
TENN
-10.5
NFL Ratings January 19
These ratings give each game of the season equal weight.
Rank
Teams
Off
Def
Rating
1
Arizona Cardinals
7.52
-2.69
10.22
2
Seattle Seahawks
3.88
-5.24
9.13
3
Cincinnati Bengals
3.51
-5.01
8.52
4
Kansas City Chiefs
3.31
-5.13
8.44
5
Carolina Panthers
6.05
-2.02
8.08
6
Pittsburgh Steelers
3.86
-3.30
7.16
7
New England Patriots
5.04
-1.86
6.90
8
Green Bay Packers
2.00
-2.96
4.96
9
Denver Broncos
-0.01
-4.84
4.82
10
Minnesota Vikings
0.22
-4.52
4.74
11
New York Jets
-0.04
-2.00
1.96
12
Buffalo Bills
0.47
0.06
0.41
13
Oakland Raiders
1.03
1.62
-0.59
14
Detroit Lions
0.76
1.44
-0.68
15
St. Louis Rams
-3.61
-2.75
-0.86
16
Houston Texans
-3.41
-2.09
-1.31
17
Baltimore Ravens
0.00
1.53
-1.53
18
Chicago Bears
-0.27
1.36
-1.63
19
Washington Redskins
-0.05
1.85
-1.90
20
New York Giants
2.45
5.13
-2.69
21
San Diego Chargers
-1.46
1.24
-2.71
22
Atlanta Falcons
-3.19
-0.44
-2.75
23
Philadelphia Eagles
-0.30
3.41
-3.71
24
New Orleans Saints
1.21
6.53
-5.33
25
Indianapolis Colts
-2.42
3.01
-5.42
26
Miami Dolphins
-3.89
1.68
-5.57
27
San Francisco 49ers
-5.58
0.01
-5.60
28
Dallas Cowboys
-5.93
-0.08
-5.85
29
Cleveland Browns
-3.14
2.93
-6.07
30
Jacksonville Jaguars
-0.34
5.74
-6.08
31
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
-2.76
3.51
-6.27
32
Tennessee Titans
-4.90
3.89
-8.79
January 17, 2016
NBA Ratings Jan 17
Rank
Team
Off
Def
Rating
Off Rank
Def Rank
1
San Antonio Spurs
1.82
-11.69
13.51
7
1
2
Golden State Warriors
11.96
3.56
8.40
1
25
3
Oklahoma City Thunder
6.96
0.24
6.71
2
17
4
Los Angeles Clippers
2.96
-1.39
4.35
5
10
5
Detroit Pistons
-0.94
-3.90
2.96
20
4
6
Boston Celtics
1.97
-0.95
2.92
6
13
7
Indiana Pacers
1.13
-1.41
2.55
11
9
8
Toronto Raptors
-1.19
-3.42
2.23
21
5
9
Cleveland Cavaliers
1.47
0.00
1.47
8
14
10
Chicago Bulls
0.01
-1.33
1.34
14
11
11
Charlotte Hornets
-0.50
-1.83
1.33
18
8
12
Atlanta Hawks
1.17
0.16
1.01
10
16
13
Utah Jazz
-5.53
-6.11
0.58
28
2
14
Miami Heat
-4.00
-4.43
0.42
26
3
15
Orlando Magic
-1.89
-1.96
0.07
23
7
16
Houston Rockets
3.00
3.16
-0.16
4
24
17
Dallas Mavericks
-0.84
0.02
-0.87
19
15
18
Portland Trail Blazers
1.19
2.30
-1.11
9
21
19
New York Knicks
-2.53
-1.11
-1.42
24
12
20
Memphis Grizzlies
-5.27
-3.41
-1.86
27
6
21
Denver Nuggets
-1.27
0.85
-2.12
22
18
22
Sacramento Kings
4.48
7.10
-2.61
3
30
23
Minnesota Timberwolves
-0.04
3.06
-3.10
17
22
24
Washington Wizards
-0.01
3.11
-3.12
16
23
25
Phoenix Suns
0.49
3.87
-3.38
12
27
26
Los Angeles Lakers
0.00
3.86
-3.86
15
26
27
New Orleans Pelicans
0.01
3.97
-3.95
13
28
28
Milwaukee Bucks
-3.05
1.99
-5.03
25
20
29
Brooklyn Nets
-5.98
1.10
-7.08
30
19
30
Philadelphia 76ers
-5.58
4.59
-10.18
29
29
January 11, 2016
NFL Ratings Jan 11
Teams
Off
Def
Rating
1
Arizona Cardinals
7.69
-2.67
10.37
2
Seattle Seahawks
3.83
-5.56
9.40
3
Kansas City Chiefs
3.42
-5.28
8.70
4
Cincinnati Bengals
3.54
-5.04
8.59
5
Carolina Panthers
5.69
-2.06
7.75
6
Pittsburgh Steelers
4.09
-3.41
7.51
7
New England Patriots
4.84
-1.72
6.56
8
Green Bay Packers
2.05
-2.80
4.85
9
Minnesota Vikings
0.22
-4.52
4.74
10
Denver Broncos
-0.01
-4.60
4.58
11
New York Jets
-0.04
-1.96
1.92
12
Buffalo Bills
0.44
0.06
0.38
13
Oakland Raiders
1.03
1.60
-0.57
14
Detroit Lions
0.74
1.42
-0.67
15
St. Louis Rams
-3.56
-2.77
-0.78
16
Houston Texans
-3.39
-2.06
-1.34
17
Baltimore Ravens
0.00
1.48
-1.48
18
Chicago Bears
-0.29
1.34
-1.63
19
Washington Redskins
-0.05
1.87
-1.92
20
San Diego Chargers
-1.48
1.20
-2.68
21
New York Giants
2.42
5.15
-2.73
22
Atlanta Falcons
-3.19
-0.36
-2.82
23
Philadelphia Eagles
-0.33
3.43
-3.76
24
New Orleans Saints
1.19
6.54
-5.35
25
Indianapolis Colts
-2.44
3.01
-5.45
26
San Francisco 49ers
-5.53
0.01
-5.54
27
Miami Dolphins
-3.89
1.70
-5.60
28
Dallas Cowboys
-5.92
-0.08
-5.84
29
Cleveland Browns
-3.10
2.87
-5.97
30
Jacksonville Jaguars
-0.34
5.75
-6.10
31
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
-2.76
3.54
-6.30
32
Tennessee Titans
-4.90
3.91
-8.81
NBA ratings January 11
Rank
Team
Off
Def
Rating
Off Rank
Def Rank
1
San Antonio Spurs
1.52
-11.63
13.15
9
1
2
Golden State Warriors
12.03
2.73
9.30
1
22
3
Oklahoma City Thunder
7.03
0.34
6.68
2
17
4
Los Angeles Clippers
3.03
-0.97
4.00
5
13
5
Indiana Pacers
1.64
-1.25
2.89
6
12
6
Detroit Pistons
-1.03
-3.75
2.72
21
5
7
Boston Celtics
1.10
-1.28
2.38
11
11
8
Toronto Raptors
-1.28
-3.50
2.22
22
6
9
Chicago Bulls
0.01
-1.85
1.86
14
10
10
Charlotte Hornets
-0.30
-1.88
1.58
18
9
11
Utah Jazz
-4.96
-6.48
1.52
27
2
12
Cleveland Cavaliers
1.51
0.00
1.51
10
14
13
Atlanta Hawks
1.63
0.18
1.45
7
16
14
Miami Heat
-3.97
-4.90
0.92
26
3
15
Orlando Magic
-2.03
-2.27
0.24
23
7
16
Dallas Mavericks
-0.47
0.02
-0.49
19
15
17
Portland Trail Blazers
1.63
2.18
-0.55
8
20
18
New York Knicks
-3.13
-1.88
-1.25
24
8
19
Houston Rockets
3.03
4.82
-1.79
4
29
20
Memphis Grizzlies
-5.79
-3.90
-1.89
29
4
21
Denver Nuggets
-0.85
1.10
-1.95
20
18
22
Phoenix Suns
0.90
3.52
-2.62
12
24
23
Sacramento Kings
4.33
7.12
-2.79
3
30
24
Minnesota Timberwolves
-0.03
3.10
-3.14
17
23
25
Washington Wizards
-0.01
3.69
-3.70
16
25
26
New Orleans Pelicans
0.01
4.12
-4.11
13
27
27
Los Angeles Lakers
0.00
4.12
-4.12
15
26
28
Milwaukee Bucks
-3.76
2.61
-6.37
25
21
29
Brooklyn Nets
-5.59
1.12
-6.71
28
19
30
Philadelphia 76ers
-6.23
4.73
-10.96
30
28
January 4, 2016
Exponential Smoothing Ratings
Here I started with team ratings based on Vegas preseason over under wins. Then I used exponential smoothing with alpha=.10 to update ratings. for example, if a team was favored by 10 in a game and won by 20, their rating would increase by .1*(20-10) = 1 point. This method gives more weight to more recent games. For example weight for last week’s game = .9*weight for current game. With these ratings I cannot predict the score of a game. only margin of victory. NFC is looking tough with top 3 teams. These ratings seem consistent with the late season declines of NE, GB, DEN, and CINN. They also show the great improvement made by teams like the Lions and Seahawks. I will use these ratings to estimate playoff probabilities by tomorrow.
RANK
TEAM
RATING
1
SEA
11.7
2
CAR
9.2
3
ARI
8.3
4
PITT
7.2
5
CINN
6.3
6
KC
6.1
7
MINN
5.5
8
NE
5.3
9
DEN
3.9
10
JETS
2.8
11
GB
2.6
12
HOU
2.3
13
WASH
2
14
BUFF
1.7
15
DET
-0.2
16
STL
-1.5
17
OAK
-2.4
18
GIANTS
-2.5
19
ATL
-2.6
20
BALT
-3.1
21
SD
-3.2
22
PHI
-3.2
23
CHI
-3.3
24
NO
-3.6
25
DALL
-4
26
MIA
-4.3
27
INDY
-4.9
28
SF
-6
29
TAMPA
-6.3
30
CLE
-6.6
31
JACK
-6.7
32
TENN
-10.5
NFL Ratings Jan 4
These ratings count every game of the season equally and are based on minimizing the sum of the squared errors in predicting each team’s score in each game.
Rank
Teams
Off
Def
Rating
1
Arizona Cardinals
7.72
-2.81
10.53
2
Seattle Seahawks
4.45
-5.13
9.58
3
Cincinnati Bengals
3.97
-5.08
9.06
4
Carolina Panthers
5.81
-2.20
8.01
5
Kansas City Chiefs
2.98
-4.56
7.54
6
Pittsburgh Steelers
4.22
-3.07
7.29
7
New England Patriots
4.96
-1.85
6.81
8
Denver Broncos
-0.03
-4.66
4.63
9
Minnesota Vikings
0.66
-3.94
4.60
10
Green Bay Packers
1.36
-2.71
4.07
11
New York Jets
-0.03
-2.10
2.07
12
Buffalo Bills
0.45
0.05
0.39
13
Houston Texans
-2.66
-2.58
-0.09
14
Oakland Raiders
0.84
1.66
-0.81
15
St. Louis Rams
-3.75
-2.94
-0.82
16
Detroit Lions
0.58
1.47
-0.89
17
Washington Redskins
0.10
1.31
-1.20
18
Baltimore Ravens
0.00
1.45
-1.45
19
Chicago Bears
-0.44
1.39
-1.83
20
New York Giants
2.48
5.18
-2.70
21
Atlanta Falcons
-3.27
-0.51
-2.76
22
San Diego Chargers
-1.70
1.28
-2.98
23
Philadelphia Eagles
-0.27
3.44
-3.71
24
New Orleans Saints
1.25
6.60
-5.35
25
Indianapolis Colts
-2.49
2.94
-5.42
26
Miami Dolphins
-3.95
1.64
-5.59
27
San Francisco 49ers
-5.79
-0.10
-5.69
28
Dallas Cowboys
-6.06
-0.22
-5.84
29
Jacksonville Jaguars
-0.34
5.76
-6.10
30
Cleveland Browns
-3.30
2.86
-6.16
31
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
-2.79
3.53
-6.32
32
Tennessee Titans
-4.98
3.88
-8.86
January 2, 2016
NBa Ratings jAN 2
Rank
Team
Off
Def
Rating
Off Rank
Def Rank
1
San Antonio Spurs
-0.46
-13.22
12.76
21
1
2
Golden State Warriors
12.07
2.29
9.79
1
20
3
Oklahoma City Thunder
7.13
0.10
7.03
2
17
4
Boston Celtics
2.22
-2.21
4.43
6
9
5
Toronto Raptors
-0.95
-4.29
3.33
23
4
6
Los Angeles Clippers
2.56
-0.63
3.19
4
13
7
Chicago Bulls
0.01
-3.01
3.02
14
6
8
Indiana Pacers
2.53
-0.22
2.75
5
14
9
Orlando Magic
-0.22
-2.56
2.34
20
7
10
Detroit Pistons
-0.54
-2.47
1.93
22
8
11
Miami Heat
-3.55
-5.18
1.62
25
3
12
Atlanta Hawks
0.70
-0.89
1.59
10
11
13
Charlotte Hornets
-0.10
-1.52
1.42
17
10
14
Utah Jazz
-4.58
-5.46
0.88
28
2
15
Cleveland Cavaliers
0.45
0.00
0.44
11
15
16
Dallas Mavericks
-0.19
0.07
-0.26
18
16
17
Portland Trail Blazers
0.70
1.47
-0.77
9
18
18
Memphis Grizzlies
-4.54
-3.10
-1.44
27
5
19
Houston Rockets
2.80
4.67
-1.87
3
29
20
Phoenix Suns
1.05
3.43
-2.38
8
24
21
Denver Nuggets
-0.21
2.54
-2.75
19
22
22
New York Knicks
-3.83
-0.80
-3.02
26
12
23
Minnesota Timberwolves
0.03
3.34
-3.31
13
23
24
Sacramento Kings
2.20
6.23
-4.03
7
30
25
Washington Wizards
-0.01
4.19
-4.20
16
26
26
New Orleans Pelicans
0.05
4.44
-4.39
12
27
27
Los Angeles Lakers
0.00
4.62
-4.62
15
28
28
Milwaukee Bucks
-3.46
2.44
-5.90
24
21
29
Brooklyn Nets
-4.63
1.68
-6.30
29
19
30
Philadelphia 76ers
-7.22
4.04
-11.26
30
25
December 29, 2015
NFL Ratings December 29
Rank
Teams
Off
Def
Rating
1
Arizona Cardinals
8.60
-3.53
12.12
2
Cincinnati Bengals
4.08
-5.02
9.09
3
New England Patriots
5.95
-1.87
7.82
4
Kansas City Chiefs
3.14
-4.46
7.60
5
Seattle Seahawks
3.56
-3.90
7.46
6
Carolina Panthers
5.42
-1.87
7.28
7
Pittsburgh Steelers
4.09
-2.75
6.85
8
Denver Broncos
-0.28
-5.00
4.73
9
Green Bay Packers
1.75
-2.67
4.42
10
Minnesota Vikings
0.53
-3.44
3.97
11
New York Jets
-0.02
-2.14
2.11
12
Buffalo Bills
0.45
0.09
0.35
13
St. Louis Rams
-3.77
-3.16
-0.61
14
Houston Texans
-2.79
-1.97
-0.82
15
Oakland Raiders
0.83
1.97
-1.14
16
Detroit Lions
0.37
1.69
-1.33
17
Chicago Bears
-0.24
1.30
-1.54
18
Washington Redskins
-0.65
0.97
-1.62
19
Baltimore Ravens
0.00
1.66
-1.66
20
New York Giants
2.40
4.54
-2.14
21
Atlanta Falcons
-2.55
-0.37
-2.18
22
San Diego Chargers
-2.18
0.99
-3.18
23
Philadelphia Eagles
-0.75
3.28
-4.03
24
Jacksonville Jaguars
0.37
5.44
-5.07
25
Indianapolis Colts
-2.85
2.39
-5.24
26
Dallas Cowboys
-6.29
-1.03
-5.26
27
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
-2.36
3.13
-5.49
28
New Orleans Saints
1.48
7.05
-5.56
29
Cleveland Browns
-3.00
2.83
-5.82
30
San Francisco 49ers
-6.05
-0.12
-5.93
31
Miami Dolphins
-3.88
2.66
-6.53
32
Tennessee Titans
-5.35
3.30
-8.66
December 28, 2015
NBA Ratings December 28
Here are updated NBA ratings.
Rank
Team
Off
Def
Rating
Off Rank
Def Rank
1
San Antonio Spurs
-0.07
-12.95
12.88
17
1
2
Golden State Warriors
13.31
1.99
11.32
1
21
3
Oklahoma City Thunder
6.65
0.08
6.56
2
17
4
Boston Celtics
2.74
-2.51
5.26
4
7
5
Indiana Pacers
2.42
-1.25
3.67
6
11
6
Toronto Raptors
-0.64
-4.16
3.52
23
4
7
Detroit Pistons
-0.35
-2.95
2.60
22
5
8
Los Angeles Clippers
2.04
-0.41
2.45
7
14
9
Chicago Bulls
0.01
-2.41
2.42
14
9
10
Orlando Magic
-0.20
-2.42
2.22
20
8
11
Charlotte Hornets
-0.15
-1.98
1.83
18
10
12
Miami Heat
-3.82
-5.42
1.60
24
2
13
Cleveland Cavaliers
1.19
0.01
1.18
8
15
14
Atlanta Hawks
0.47
-0.61
1.09
10
13
15
Utah Jazz
-4.34
-5.23
0.89
26
3
16
Portland Trail Blazers
0.46
0.76
-0.30
11
18
17
Dallas Mavericks
-0.25
0.07
-0.32
21
16
18
Houston Rockets
2.66
4.42
-1.76
5
25
19
Memphis Grizzlies
-4.81
-2.77
-2.04
28
6
20
Sacramento Kings
3.18
5.32
-2.13
3
29
21
Phoenix Suns
1.16
3.42
-2.25
9
23
22
Denver Nuggets
-0.17
2.79
-2.96
19
22
23
New York Knicks
-3.83
-0.68
-3.15
25
12
24
Minnesota Timberwolves
0.03
3.44
-3.41
13
24
25
New Orleans Pelicans
0.05
4.58
-4.53
12
26
26
Washington Wizards
-0.01
4.94
-4.95
16
27
27
Los Angeles Lakers
0.00
5.57
-5.57
15
30
28
Brooklyn Nets
-4.75
1.58
-6.33
27
19
29
Milwaukee Bucks
-5.33
1.74
-7.07
29
20
30
Philadelphia 76ers
-7.64
5.05
-12.69
30
28
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