Wayne L. Winston's Blog, page 17

NFL Ratings November 24

Rank

Teams

Off

Def

Rating

1

New England Patriots

8.18

-3.95

12.13

2

Arizona Cardinals

9.48

-0.09

9.56

3

Cincinnati Bengals

2.95

-5.15

8.10

4

Carolina Panthers

5.19

-2.78

7.97

5

Kansas City Chiefs

4.22

-2.96

7.18

6

Denver Broncos

0.00

-4.94

4.94

7

Green Bay Packers

2.58

-2.15

4.73

8

Pittsburgh Steelers

0.01

-4.30

4.31

9

Seattle Seahawks

0.53

-2.89

3.42

10

Buffalo Bills

1.68

-0.01

1.69

11

New York Jets

-0.64

-2.20

1.55

12

Minnesota Vikings

-2.17

-3.17

1.00

13

New York Giants

3.49

2.69

0.81

14

Atlanta Falcons

0.54

0.01

0.52

15

Philadelphia Eagles

-0.82

0.04

-0.86

16

Indianapolis Colts

-0.26

0.90

-1.16

17

Houston Texans

-1.69

-0.47

-1.22

18

St. Louis Rams

-4.49

-2.75

-1.74

19

Chicago Bears

-0.83

1.27

-2.10

20

Oakland Raiders

1.30

3.46

-2.15

21

Washington Redskins

-1.16

1.01

-2.17

22

Baltimore Ravens

-0.36

2.09

-2.45

23

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

-0.37

2.61

-2.99

24

Dallas Cowboys

-4.75

-1.61

-3.14

25

Miami Dolphins

-1.73

1.90

-3.62

26

Jacksonville Jaguars

-1.65

3.09

-4.75

27

New Orleans Saints

2.00

7.34

-5.34

28

Tennessee Titans

-6.05

0.14

-6.20

29

Detroit Lions

-3.33

2.96

-6.29

30

San Diego Chargers

-1.53

4.92

-6.45

31

Cleveland Browns

-3.04

3.96

-7.00

32

San Francisco 49ers

-7.26

1.03

-8.29

NBA Rankings November 22

 

 

Team

Off

Def

Rating

Off Rank

Def Rank

Golden State Warriors

12.44

0.33

12.11

1

17

San Antonio Spurs

-2.86

-9.55

6.69

21

1

Indiana Pacers

1.23

-5.45

6.68

12

4

Boston Celtics

3.67

-2.59

6.25

7

11

Oklahoma City Thunder

8.18

2.70

5.48

2

20

Cleveland Cavaliers

5.04

0.14

4.90

3

16

Chicago Bulls

0.04

-4.57

4.61

15

5

Miami Heat

-4.08

-8.11

4.02

24

2

Toronto Raptors

0.98

-2.69

3.67

13

10

Phoenix Suns

3.34

-0.23

3.57

8

14

Charlotte Hornets

2.19

-0.12

2.31

11

15

Los Angeles Clippers

3.78

1.57

2.21

6

19

Minnesota Timberwolves

4.42

3.21

1.21

5

21

Detroit Pistons

-5.39

-6.49

1.10

27

3

Dallas Mavericks

-1.56

-2.12

0.55

20

12

Atlanta Hawks

-0.56

-0.54

-0.02

18

13

Utah Jazz

-4.75

-4.37

-0.39

26

6

Orlando Magic

-3.57

-2.70

-0.87

22

9

New York Knicks

-4.73

-3.72

-1.01

25

7

Portland Trail Blazers

2.34

3.36

-1.02

10

23

Washington Wizards

4.98

6.53

-1.55

4

28

Denver Nuggets

-1.20

1.21

-2.41

19

18

Los Angeles Lakers

0.07

4.15

-4.09

14

25

Memphis Grizzlies

-7.81

-3.15

-4.66

29

8

Sacramento Kings

2.67

8.41

-5.74

9

30

New Orleans Pelicans

-0.14

6.11

-6.25

16

27

Houston Rockets

-0.53

6.88

-7.41

17

29

Milwaukee Bucks

-4.05

4.07

-8.12

23

24

Brooklyn Nets

-6.25

4.41

-10.66

28

26

Philadelphia 76ers

-7.88

3.29

-11.17

30

22

NFL ratings November 17

Rank

Teams

Off

Def

Rating

1

New England Patriots

9.50

-3.56

13.06

2

Arizona Cardinals

8.42

-0.99

9.42

3

Cincinnati Bengals

1.82

-5.92

7.73

4

Carolina Panthers

3.46

-2.23

5.69

5

Pittsburgh Steelers

-0.02

-4.62

4.61

6

Denver Broncos

0.00

-4.49

4.49

7

Kansas City Chiefs

3.61

-0.74

4.35

8

New York Jets

0.05

-3.13

3.18

9

Philadelphia Eagles

0.24

-2.52

2.76

10

Seattle Seahawks

-0.16

-2.68

2.52

11

Green Bay Packers

0.93

-1.50

2.43

12

Minnesota Vikings

-2.20

-4.59

2.39

13

Buffalo Bills

2.37

0.00

2.37

14

Atlanta Falcons

1.06

-0.21

1.27

15

New York Giants

3.52

2.46

1.07

16

Washington Redskins

-0.85

-0.79

-0.06

17

Oakland Raiders

2.73

3.80

-1.06

18

Miami Dolphins

-0.83

0.76

-1.59

19

St. Louis Rams

-3.55

-1.94

-1.61

20

Indianapolis Colts

-0.94

1.17

-2.11

21

Baltimore Ravens

0.23

2.47

-2.24

22

Chicago Bears

-0.88

1.67

-2.55

23

Houston Texans

-2.45

0.26

-2.70

24

Dallas Cowboys

-4.94

-1.18

-3.76

25

San Diego Chargers

0.05

4.52

-4.47

26

Jacksonville Jaguars

-1.49

3.66

-5.14

27

New Orleans Saints

2.09

7.48

-5.39

28

Tennessee Titans

-5.62

0.75

-6.37

29

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

-3.00

3.51

-6.51

30

Cleveland Browns

-3.08

3.46

-6.54

31

Detroit Lions

-2.74

4.34

-7.08

32

San Francisco 49ers

-7.36

0.77

-8.13

NBA Ratings with reduced impact of blowouts

Here are slightly different ratings with games like 50 point Memphis-GS  blowout have less influence on ratings.

 

Rank

Team

Off

Def

Rating

Off Rank

Def Rank

1

Golden State Warriors

9.29

-0.86

10.15

2

15

2

San Antonio Spurs

-0.13

-9.90

9.77

18

2

3

Oklahoma City Thunder

9.36

1.95

7.40

1

21

4

Cleveland Cavaliers

3.97

-2.53

6.50

5

10

5

Miami Heat

-4.59

-9.96

5.37

27

1

6

Boston Celtics

0.84

-4.00

4.84

11

6

7

Phoenix Suns

1.15

-2.86

4.01

10

8

8

Toronto Raptors

1.97

-1.84

3.81

8

11

9

Utah Jazz

-3.24

-6.86

3.63

22

3

10

Indiana Pacers

0.41

-3.18

3.59

14

7

11

Chicago Bulls

0.03

-2.71

2.74

16

9

12

Charlotte Hornets

0.75

-1.83

2.58

12

12

13

Detroit Pistons

-3.26

-5.16

1.90

23

4

14

Los Angeles Clippers

2.92

1.30

1.62

7

19

15

Minnesota Timberwolves

5.47

4.13

1.34

3

25

16

Atlanta Hawks

0.74

0.70

0.04

13

18

17

Dallas Mavericks

-1.07

-1.04

-0.03

20

14

18

New York Knicks

-4.30

-4.13

-0.17

26

5

19

Portland Trail Blazers

3.87

5.03

-1.16

6

26

20

Orlando Magic

-3.59

-0.86

-2.74

24

16

21

Milwaukee Bucks

-1.08

1.90

-2.98

21

20

22

Los Angeles Lakers

0.06

3.47

-3.41

15

24

23

Denver Nuggets

-4.07

0.11

-4.18

25

17

24

New Orleans Pelicans

-0.08

6.01

-6.09

17

27

25

Memphis Grizzlies

-8.15

-1.62

-6.53

30

13

26

Washington Wizards

4.23

11.14

-6.91

4

30

27

Sacramento Kings

1.46

8.96

-7.50

9

29

28

Houston Rockets

-0.16

8.95

-9.11

19

28

29

Brooklyn Nets

-6.57

2.55

-9.13

29

22

30

Philadelphia 76ers

-6.22

3.11

-9.34

28

23

NBA Rankings November 16

#1 and #30 are clear, but you may be surprised by the rest. Schedule strength is critical to properly evaluate teams early in the season.

Rank
Team
Off
Def
Rating
Off Rank
Def Rank


1
Golden State Warriors
10.93
-0.61
11.55
1
15


2
San Antonio Spurs
-0.10
-10.07
9.97
17
2


3
Miami Heat
-4.69
-11.29
6.60
26
1


4
Cleveland Cavaliers
4.58
-1.10
5.68
3
13


5
Oklahoma City Thunder
9.80
4.52
5.29
2
24


6
Boston Celtics
0.42
-4.86
5.27
14
5


7
Utah Jazz
-2.58
-7.68
5.10
22
3


8
Charlotte Hornets
2.89
-2.20
5.09
8
10


9
Toronto Raptors
1.66
-3.04
4.70
11
9


10
Indiana Pacers
-0.61
-3.15
2.54
19
7


11
Atlanta Hawks
2.78
0.53
2.25
9
18


12
Phoenix Suns
0.45
-1.76
2.21
13
11


13
Chicago Bulls
0.50
-1.42
1.92
12
12


14
Detroit Pistons
-4.35
-6.17
1.83
25
4


15
New York Knicks
-3.12
-3.24
0.12
23
6


16
Minnesota Timberwolves
3.47
3.58
-0.12
6
22


17
Los Angeles Clippers
3.21
3.86
-0.65
7
23


18
Portland Trail Blazers
4.08
4.91
-0.83
4
25


19
Dallas Mavericks
-2.19
-1.02
-1.17
21
14


20
Orlando Magic
-2.14
-0.43
-1.71
20
16


21
Washington Wizards
3.64
8.02
-4.38
5
29


22
Memphis Grizzlies
-8.24
-3.07
-5.17
30
8


23
Denver Nuggets
-5.15
0.06
-5.21
27
17


24
New Orleans Pelicans
0.20
6.05
-5.85
15
27


25
Los Angeles Lakers
-0.29
5.58
-5.87
18
26


26
Sacramento Kings
2.28
8.19
-5.91
10
30


27
Milwaukee Bucks
-3.25
3.20
-6.45
24
21


28
Houston Rockets
-0.03
7.89
-7.91
16
28


29
Brooklyn Nets
-6.74
2.17
-8.91
28
19


30
Philadelphia 76ers
-7.40
2.56
-9.96
29
20

 

NBA Ratings Nov 10

Warriors are amazing; Nets not so much.

Team

Rating

Golden State Warriors

15.52

Miami Heat

8.43

San Antonio Spurs

8.35

Oklahoma City Thunder

7.99

Detroit Pistons

7.38

Cleveland Cavaliers

6.55

Utah Jazz

5.94

Charlotte Hornets

5.51

Atlanta Hawks

3.89

Toronto Raptors

3.36

Minnesota Timberwolves

2.94

Boston Celtics

2.71

Los Angeles Clippers

2.42

Chicago Bulls

1.67

Indiana Pacers

1.61

Portland Trail Blazers

1.58

Phoenix Suns

1.35

Denver Nuggets

-1.60

Orlando Magic

-1.95

New York Knicks

-2.13

Houston Rockets

-2.27

Dallas Mavericks

-3.84

New Orleans Pelicans

-4.31

Sacramento Kings

-6.61

Washington Wizards

-7.02

Memphis Grizzlies

-8.36

Los Angeles Lakers

-9.99

Milwaukee Bucks

-11.07

Philadelphia 76ers

-11.81

Brooklyn Nets

-16.22

NFL Ratings November 10

Raiders are above average!

 

Rank
Teams
Off
Def
Rating


1
New England Patriots
9.38
-3.71
13.09


2
Cincinnati Bengals
4.33
-5.43
9.76


3
Arizona Cardinals
6.90
-2.36
9.26


4
Denver Broncos
0.01
-5.62
5.63


5
Carolina Panthers
3.04
-1.75
4.78


6
Pittsburgh Steelers
-0.01
-4.43
4.42


7
New York Jets
0.83
-3.25
4.08


8
Green Bay Packers
2.58
-1.19
3.77


9
Philadelphia Eagles
0.66
-3.09
3.75


10
Seattle Seahawks
-1.73
-4.65
2.91


11
Buffalo Bills
1.79
0.01
1.78


12
Kansas City Chiefs
1.65
-0.09
1.74


13
St. Louis Rams
-2.36
-3.74
1.38


14
Atlanta Falcons
0.58
-0.67
1.25


15
Oakland Raiders
3.57
2.41
1.16


16
New York Giants
2.92
2.45
0.47


17
Minnesota Vikings
-3.36
-3.37
0.01


18
Baltimore Ravens
1.50
1.96
-0.46


19
Indianapolis Colts
-1.08
0.92
-2.00


20
Washington Redskins
-2.64
-0.13
-2.51


21
New Orleans Saints
2.68
5.43
-2.75


22
Dallas Cowboys
-2.82
0.14
-2.95


23
Miami Dolphins
-1.51
1.50
-3.01


24
San Diego Chargers
-0.46
3.79
-4.25


25
Cleveland Browns
-2.04
2.46
-4.50


26
Houston Texans
-2.54
2.60
-5.14


27
Tennessee Titans
-5.01
0.30
-5.31


28
Chicago Bears
-2.92
2.94
-5.87


29
Jacksonville Jaguars
-2.08
4.30
-6.38


30
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
-2.10
5.05
-7.15


31
San Francisco 49ers
-6.94
0.63
-7.57


32
Detroit Lions
-2.83
6.60
-9.43

NFL Ratings Election Day 2014

Pats hold on to #1 and Broncos move up to #4.

 

Rank
Teams
Off
Def
Rating


1
New England Patriots
10.16
-2.27
12.42


2
Arizona Cardinals
6.77
-2.22
8.98


3
Cincinnati Bengals
4.48
-4.17
8.65


4
Denver Broncos
0.01
-5.92
5.93


5
New York Jets
1.22
-3.59
4.81


6
Pittsburgh Steelers
-1.42
-5.81
4.39


7
Carolina Panthers
2.02
-2.17
4.19


8
Green Bay Packers
1.52
-2.51
4.03


9
Philadelphia Eagles
-0.16
-3.75
3.60


10
Seattle Seahawks
-1.49
-4.11
2.62


11
Atlanta Falcons
1.69
-0.42
2.10


12
Kansas City Chiefs
1.87
0.26
1.60


13
St. Louis Rams
-2.25
-3.75
1.50


14
Oakland Raiders
1.66
0.80
0.85


15
Buffalo Bills
0.98
0.66
0.32


16
Minnesota Vikings
-3.60
-3.58
-0.01


17
New York Giants
2.91
3.30
-0.39


18
Baltimore Ravens
1.64
2.08
-0.44


19
New Orleans Saints
2.86
4.27
-1.41


20
Miami Dolphins
-1.13
1.02
-2.15


21
Washington Redskins
-1.55
0.62
-2.17


22
Dallas Cowboys
-3.62
-1.02
-2.60


23
Indianapolis Colts
-1.76
1.11
-2.87


24
San Diego Chargers
0.98
4.21
-3.24


25
Cleveland Browns
-1.08
2.70
-3.79


26
Houston Texans
-2.15
2.70
-4.85


27
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
-0.88
4.69
-5.57


28
Tennessee Titans
-5.94
0.11
-6.05


29
Chicago Bears
-2.18
4.26
-6.44


30
Jacksonville Jaguars
-2.63
4.47
-7.10


31
San Francisco 49ers
-6.22
1.78
-8.00


32
Detroit Lions
-2.70
6.26
-8.95

Thoughts on the Myth of the Myth of the Hot Hand

This new analysis is all wrong. I simulated basketball players whose number of shots in game is normally distributed with mean 10 and sigma 2. Each player is a 50% shooter and successive shots are independent I played out 1000 players and aggregated over all players the fraction of the time a made shot was followed by a made shot. I get 50% as expected. But if I compute for each player the fraction of the time a made shot is followed by a made shot and average these numbers over all players  I get 44% which is what the new stuff says. But really the first computation is the one that should be used in any study to see if a hot hand exists.

NFL Ratings October 27

Rank
Teams
Off
Def
Rating


1
New England Patriots
10.79
-1.04
11.83


2
Arizona Cardinals
7.19
-2.02
9.21


3
Cincinnati Bengals
5.06
-2.79
7.85


4
New York Jets
1.67
-5.74
7.41


5
Green Bay Packers
2.41
-3.49
5.90


6
Carolina Panthers
1.78
-3.19
4.97


7
Pittsburgh Steelers
-0.71
-5.54
4.83


8
Philadelphia Eagles
0.70
-3.80
4.50


9
Atlanta Falcons
3.44
-0.60
4.04


10
Denver Broncos
-0.85
-4.85
4.00


11
Seattle Seahawks
-0.64
-4.02
3.38


12
St. Louis Rams
-2.72
-3.67
0.95


13
Buffalo Bills
1.04
0.74
0.30


14
New York Giants
0.32
0.02
0.30


15
Minnesota Vikings
-3.92
-3.94
0.02


16
Miami Dolphins
0.37
0.88
-0.51


17
Baltimore Ravens
1.49
2.03
-0.54


18
Kansas City Chiefs
0.05
1.27
-1.22


19
New Orleans Saints
0.03
1.64
-1.61


20
Oakland Raiders
-0.21
1.44
-1.66


21
Washington Redskins
-1.24
0.50
-1.73


22
Dallas Cowboys
-2.04
0.40
-2.44


23
San Diego Chargers
0.88
4.50
-3.62


24
Cleveland Browns
-1.01
2.72
-3.73


25
Indianapolis Colts
-2.70
1.17
-3.87


26
Tennessee Titans
-4.88
0.36
-5.23


27
Houston Texans
-2.21
4.40
-6.61


28
San Francisco 49ers
-5.39
1.53
-6.92


29
Chicago Bears
-2.47
4.51
-6.98


30
Detroit Lions
-1.88
5.17
-7.05


31
Jacksonville Jaguars
-3.29
4.59
-7.88


32
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
-1.08
6.83
-7.90