Wayne L. Winston's Blog, page 13

NFL Ratings October 11, 2016

These ratings are not predictive, but measure season to date performance.

 

Rank
Team
Offense
Defense
Total
Off Rank
Def Rank


1
Philadelphia Eagles
4.56
-10.36
14.92
4
1


2
Minnesota Vikings
1.93
-8.71
10.65
13
2


3
Pittsburgh Steelers
5.89
-3.38
9.27
2
9


4
Atlanta Falcons
10.94
3.69
7.25
1
23


5
Denver Broncos
-0.73
-6.94
6.21
17
5


6
Buffalo Bills
2.79
-2.62
5.41
10
10


7
New England Patriots
-2.16
-7.20
5.05
20
3


8
Green Bay Packers
3.41
-1.19
4.61
8
14


9
Dallas Cowboys
1.97
-2.18
4.15
12
11


10
Arizona Cardinals
2.06
-0.62
2.68
11
16


11
Oakland Raiders
5.11
3.05
2.06
3
21


12
Detroit Lions
2.93
1.64
1.29
9
19


13
Seattle Seahawks
-6.96
-7.03
0.07
31
4


14
New York Giants
-3.93
-3.86
-0.07
27
7


15
San Diego Chargers
4.02
4.43
-0.40
6
25


16
Tennessee Titans
-4.30
-3.72
-0.58
28
8


17
Carolina Panthers
1.93
2.66
-0.73
14
20


18
Washington Redskins
1.54
3.10
-1.56
15
22


19
Baltimore Ravens
-7.32
-5.54
-1.78
32
6


20
New Orleans Saints
4.06
5.85
-1.79
5
29


21
Cincinnati Bengals
-3.48
-1.67
-1.81
24
12


22
Kansas City Chiefs
-3.75
-1.33
-2.43
26
13


23
Houston Texans
-2.31
1.09
-3.40
21
18


24
Indianapolis Colts
3.71
7.71
-4.00
7
31


25
Chicago Bears
-4.93
0.16
-5.09
29
17


26
Los Angeles Rams
-6.10
-0.80
-5.29
30
15


27
San Francisco 49ers
0.92
7.06
-6.14
16
30


28
New York Jets
-0.75
5.43
-6.18
18
28


29
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
-3.15
3.91
-7.06
23
24


30
Miami Dolphins
-2.41
4.68
-7.09
22
26


31
Jacksonville Jaguars
-3.61
4.83
-8.44
25
27


32
Cleveland Browns
-1.89
7.88
-9.77
19
32

NFL Rankings

These are not meant to be predictive, but reflect how well teams have played to date. So amazing Eagles have played 6.98 ppg better than average on offense and 14.34 ppg better than average on defense.

 

Rank
Team
Offense
Defense
Overall
Offense Rank
Defense Rank


1
Philadelphia Eagles
6.98
-14.34
21.31
3
1


2
Pittsburgh Steelers
8.22
-3.31
11.54
2
9


3
Denver Broncos
1.71
-7.57
9.28
13
4


4
Minnesota Vikings
-0.85
-9.92
9.07
19
2


5
Atlanta Falcons
10.18
5.98
4.20
1
28


6
Buffalo Bills
-0.88
-5.06
4.18
20
7


7
Dallas Cowboys
0.19
-2.61
2.80
15
12


8
Cincinnati Bengals
-2.64
-5.07
2.42
21
6


9
Seattle Seahawks
-5.84
-8.27
2.42
30
3


10
Green Bay Packers
3.34
0.92
2.42
5
17


11
Carolina Panthers
5.85
3.57
2.28
4
22


12
New England Patriots
-3.25
-5.45
2.21
24
5


13
Oakland Raiders
3.26
1.77
1.49
6
19


14
Baltimore Ravens
-2.93
-3.87
0.94
23
8


15
Arizona Cardinals
0.79
1.95
-1.16
14
20


16
New York Giants
-4.39
-2.75
-1.64
27
11


17
Miami Dolphins
-0.29
1.70
-1.99
17
18


18
San Diego Chargers
3.10
5.10
-2.00
8
25


19
Kansas City Chiefs
-4.47
-1.96
-2.51
28
13


20
Detroit Lions
0.10
2.81
-2.72
16
21


21
Washington Redskins
2.36
5.31
-2.95
11
26


22
New Orleans Saints
3.25
6.71
-3.46
7
29


23
San Francisco 49ers
2.38
5.97
-3.58
10
27


24
Cleveland Browns
-0.71
3.60
-4.30
18
23


25
Chicago Bears
-3.98
0.68
-4.65
25
15


26
Los Angeles Rams
-8.09
-3.29
-4.80
32
10


27
Tennessee Titans
-6.16
-1.31
-4.85
31
14


28
New York Jets
2.04
6.95
-4.91
12
30


29
Houston Texans
-4.29
0.88
-5.17
26
16


30
Indianapolis Colts
3.08
8.58
-5.50
9
32


31
Jacksonville Jaguars
-5.28
4.20
-9.48
29
24


32
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
-2.79
8.10
-10.88
22
31

Parker vs. Mills

If Spurs want to survive they need to play Patty Mills more and Parker less. After adjusting for OKC players on court here is how Spurs have played (in ppg) for games 2-5

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10



Duncan
Green
Leonard
Parker
Aldridge
Mills
Ginobili
Diaw
West
Anderson


Mills and  other in
46 12m
36 24m
28 39m
dnp
25 39m
14 66m
11 52m
-1 38m
1 40m
-18 20m


Mills out and other in
10 70m
2 103m
12 116m
8 126m
5 122m
dnp
16 31m
-2 20m
12 36m
-180 2m


Mills in and other out
7 54m
1 42m
-5 28m
14 66m
-1 27m
dnp
24 14m
35 28m
35 26m
28 46m


Mills out and other out
4 56m
31 23m
-49 10m
-742 0m
87 3m
7 126m
4 95m
9 105m
5 90m
11 123m

So for example Mills in with Green SAN plays 36 ppg better than average and with Mills out only 2 ppg better than average. Parker and Leonard in 12 ppg better than average.  Leonard in and Parker out 28 ppg better than average. Mills and Anderson in bty, has played poorly.

 

Duncan
Green
Leonard
Parker
Aldridge
Mills
Ginobili
Diaw
West
Anderson


Parker and  other in
10 70m
3 103m
12 116m
8 126m
6 122m
dnp
19 31m
3 20m
12 36m
-149 2m


Parker out and other in
46 12m
32 24m
28 39m
dnp
22 39m
14 66m
9 52m
-4 38m
1 40m
-23 20m


Parker in and other out
6 56m
31 23m
-40 10m
dnp
87 3m
8 126m
4 95m
9 105m
6 90m
11 123m


Parker out and other out
5 55m
1 42m
-8 28m
13 66m
-1 27m
-742 0m
24 14m
35 28m
31 26m
28 46m

The Spurs and Parker vs. Mills

In Games 2-5 of OKC series, Spurs are much better with Mills on the floor than Parker. After adjusting for strength of opposing players on floor we find the following. Note than when Mills is in and Aldridge, Green or Kawh or West is in Spurs are much better than when Mill is out..

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10



Duncan
Green
Leonard
Parker
Aldridge
Mills
Ginobili
Diaw
West
Anderson


Mills and  other in
46 12m
36 24m
28 39m
dnp
25 39m
14 66m
11 52m
-1 38m
1 40m
-18 20m


Mills out and other in
10 70m
2 103m
12 116m
8 126m
5 122m
dnp
16 31m
-2 20m
12 36m
-180 2m


Mills in and other out
7 54m
1 42m
-5 28m
14 66m
-1 27m
dnp
24 14m
35 28m
35 26m
28 46m


Mills out and other out
4 56m
31 23m
-49 10m
-742 0m
87 3m
7 126m
4 95m
9 105m
5 90m
11 123m

For Parker we have the following info. You can see that when Parker is out and Aldridge, Green or Kawhi is in Spurs are much better than when Parker is in.

 

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10



Duncan
Green
Leonard
Parker
Aldridge
Mills
Ginobili
Diaw
West
Anderson


Parker and  other in
10 70m
3 103m
12 116m
8 126m
6 122m
dnp
19 31m
3 20m
12 36m
-149 2m


Parker out and other in
46 12m
32 24m
28 39m
dnp
22 39m
14 66m
9 52m
-4 38m
1 40m
-23 20m


Parker in and other out
6 56m
31 23m
-40 10m
dnp
87 3m
8 126m
4 95m
9 105m
6 90m
11 123m


Parker out and other out
5 55m
1 42m
-8 28m
13 66m
-1 27m
-742 0m
24 14m
35 28m
31 26m
28 46m

 

 

 

FInal NBA Regular Season Ratings April 13 2016

Rank

Team

Off

Def

Rating

Off Rank

Def Rank

1

San Antonio Spurs

0.44

-10.02

10.45

10

1

2

Golden State Warriors

12.88

2.55

10.34

1

20

3

Oklahoma City Thunder

7.45

0.24

7.21

2

16

4

Toronto Raptors

0.89

-3.50

4.39

9

4

5

Los Angeles Clippers

0.98

-3.32

4.29

8

6

6

Boston Celtics

3.97

-0.03

4.00

5

14

7

Cleveland Cavaliers

0.00

-3.46

3.46

15

5

8

Atlanta Hawks

0.04

-3.26

3.30

12

7

9

Portland Trail Blazers

2.88

1.39

1.49

6

19

10

Houston Rockets

4.64

3.22

1.42

3

24

11

Charlotte Hornets

0.04

-1.32

1.37

11

12

12

Utah Jazz

-6.48

-7.78

1.30

30

2

13

Detroit Pistons

-0.82

-1.78

0.96

19

9

14

Miami Heat

-2.71

-3.53

0.82

23

3

15

Indiana Pacers

-0.70

-1.49

0.79

18

11

16

Dallas Mavericks

0.00

-0.14

0.14

14

13

17

Orlando Magic

-0.49

0.00

-0.48

17

15

18

Washington Wizards

1.77

2.62

-0.85

7

21

19

Memphis Grizzlies

-3.71

-1.94

-1.77

25

8

20

Chicago Bulls

-1.45

0.42

-1.87

21

17

21

Sacramento Kings

4.29

6.63

-2.34

4

30

22

Denver Nuggets

0.00

2.62

-2.62

16

22

23

New York Knicks

-4.48

-1.68

-2.80

28

10

24

New Orleans Pelicans

0.00

3.54

-3.54

13

26

25

Minnesota Timberwolves

-0.88

3.60

-4.49

20

27

26

Milwaukee Bucks

-4.12

0.81

-4.92

27

18

27

Phoenix Suns

-2.04

4.02

-6.06

22

28

28

Brooklyn Nets

-3.03

3.33

-6.36

24

25

29

Los Angeles Lakers

-5.51

3.07

-8.58

29

23

30

Philadelphia 76ers

-3.82

5.22

-9.03

26

29

NBA Ratings April 6

Rank

Team

Off

Def

Rating

Off Rank

Def Rank

1

San Antonio Spurs

1.39

-9.86

11.25

8

1

2

Golden State Warriors

12.83

3.27

9.56

1

26

3

Oklahoma City Thunder

7.88

0.36

7.52

2

17

4

Toronto Raptors

1.00

-3.34

4.34

10

5

5

Boston Celtics

4.01

-0.03

4.04

5

13

6

Los Angeles Clippers

1.01

-2.98

4.00

9

7

7

Cleveland Cavaliers

0.00

-3.80

3.80

16

3

8

Atlanta Hawks

0.04

-3.22

3.26

13

6

9

Utah Jazz

-6.47

-8.14

1.67

30

2

10

Charlotte Hornets

0.04

-1.59

1.64

12

11

11

Detroit Pistons

-0.22

-1.71

1.49

17

9

12

Houston Rockets

4.37

3.21

1.16

4

25

13

Portland Trail Blazers

2.64

1.53

1.11

6

19

14

Miami Heat

-2.75

-3.35

0.60

23

4

15

Indiana Pacers

-1.04

-1.57

0.53

20

12

16

Dallas Mavericks

0.00

0.11

-0.11

15

15

17

Orlando Magic

-0.69

0.00

-0.68

18

14

18

Washington Wizards

1.43

2.69

-1.26

7

21

19

Memphis Grizzlies

-3.55

-2.17

-1.38

24

8

20

Chicago Bulls

-1.54

0.35

-1.89

21

16

21

Sacramento Kings

4.80

7.03

-2.23

3

30

22

Denver Nuggets

0.31

2.83

-2.51

11

23

23

New Orleans Pelicans

0.00

2.67

-2.67

14

20

24

New York Knicks

-4.39

-1.66

-2.74

28

10

25

Minnesota Timberwolves

-1.02

3.71

-4.74

19

27

26

Milwaukee Bucks

-4.10

0.89

-4.99

26

18

27

Brooklyn Nets

-3.69

2.71

-6.40

25

22

28

Phoenix Suns

-2.65

4.29

-6.94

22

28

29

Los Angeles Lakers

-5.48

3.13

-8.62

29

24

30

Philadelphia 76ers

-4.16

4.66

-8.82

27

29

NBA Ratings March 27 2016

Rank
Team
Off
Def
Rating
Off Rank
Def Rank


1
San Antonio Spurs
1.52
-9.86
11.38
7
1


2
Golden State Warriors
13.26
3.00
10.26
1
23


3
Oklahoma City Thunder
7.57
0.21
7.36
2
16


4
Toronto Raptors
0.95
-3.46
4.41
10
6


5
Boston Celtics
4.17
-0.04
4.21
4
13


6
Cleveland Cavaliers
0.00
-4.04
4.04
16
3


7
Atlanta Hawks
0.04
-3.88
3.92
14
4


8
Los Angeles Clippers
1.00
-2.46
3.46
9
7


9
Charlotte Hornets
0.06
-1.34
1.40
13
12


10
Detroit Pistons
-0.11
-1.48
1.37
17
10


11
Indiana Pacers
-0.65
-1.55
0.90
18
9


12
Utah Jazz
-6.64
-7.46
0.82
30
2


13
Miami Heat
-3.01
-3.81
0.81
23
5


14
Houston Rockets
4.33
3.59
0.74
3
26


15
Portland Trail Blazers
2.23
1.50
0.73
6
19


16
Dallas Mavericks
0.00
0.10
-0.10
15
15


17
Washington Wizards
1.44
2.64
-1.20
8
22


18
Memphis Grizzlies
-3.65
-2.35
-1.30
25
8


19
Orlando Magic
-1.65
0.00
-1.65
21
14


20
Denver Nuggets
0.59
2.53
-1.94
11
21


21
Chicago Bulls
-1.43
0.65
-2.08
20
18


22
New York Knicks
-4.00
-1.46
-2.54
26
11


23
Sacramento Kings
3.99
6.84
-2.84
5
30


24
New Orleans Pelicans
0.35
3.50
-3.15
12
25


25
Milwaukee Bucks
-4.12
0.40
-4.52
27
17


26
Minnesota Timberwolves
-1.11
3.98
-5.08
19
28


27
Brooklyn Nets
-3.30
2.19
-5.49
24
20


28
Phoenix Suns
-2.39
3.95
-6.34
22
27


29
Los Angeles Lakers
-5.12
3.43
-8.56
29
24


30
Philadelphia 76ers
-4.33
4.68
-9.01
28
29

Elite 8 Odds

Team
3
4
5
6


Kansas
44.52%
18.20%
13.98%
23.30%


UVA
19.74%
32.14%
24.90%
23.22%


UNC
25.10%
36.20%
21.48%
17.22%


VILL
55.48%
17.00%
10.72%
16.80%


ORE
44.52%
34.70%
10.42%
10.36%


OKLA
55.48%
30.10%
7.78%
6.64%


ND
74.90%
17.88%
5.82%
1.40%


SYR
80.26%
13.78%
4.90%
1.06%

Sweet 16 odds

Here is chance of each team winning each number of games

Team
2
3
4
5
6


Kansas
26.36%
28.04%
14.02%
11.66%
19.92%


UNC
38.20%
13.32%
19.18%
13.30%
16.00%


UVA
30.96%
20.48%
20.16%
12.86%
15.54%


VILL
36.92%
31.92%
11.94%
8.40%
10.82%


OKLA
42.38%
25.46%
18.80%
6.66%
6.70%


IND
61.80%
12.00%
12.78%
7.42%
6.00%


GONZ
34.52%
39.88%
14.42%
6.58%
4.60%


DUKE
49.96%
26.90%
15.06%
4.70%
3.38%


A AND M
57.62%
20.96%
13.60%
4.46%
3.36%


MIA
63.08%
22.68%
7.02%
3.96%
3.26%


ORE
50.04%
26.68%
14.62%
5.40%
3.26%


ISU
69.04%
14.68%
9.72%
4.48%
2.08%


MD
73.64%
17.36%
4.94%
2.18%
1.88%


ND
50.00%
37.52%
8.42%
2.88%
1.18%


WISC
50.00%
37.16%
8.68%
3.00%
1.16%


SYR
65.48%
24.96%
6.64%
2.06%
0.86%

 

Here is chance each team wins >=N games

Team
>=3
>=4
>=5
>=6


Kansas
73.64%
45.60%
31.58%
19.92%


UNC
61.80%
48.48%
29.30%
16.00%


UVA
69.04%
48.56%
28.40%
15.54%


VILL
63.08%
31.16%
19.22%
10.82%


OKLA
57.62%
32.16%
13.36%
6.70%


IND
38.20%
26.20%
13.42%
6.00%


GONZ
65.48%
25.60%
11.18%
4.60%


DUKE
50.04%
23.14%
8.08%
3.38%


A AND M
42.38%
21.42%
7.82%
3.36%


MIA
36.92%
14.24%
7.22%
3.26%


ORE
49.96%
23.28%
8.66%
3.26%


ISU
30.96%
16.28%
6.56%
2.08%


MD
26.36%
9.00%
4.06%
1.88%


ND
50.00%
12.48%
4.06%
1.18%


WISC
50.00%
12.84%
4.16%
1.16%


SYR
34.52%
9.56%
2.92%
0.86%

NBA Ratings March 27

Rank

Team

Off

Def

Rating

Off Rank

Def Rank

1

San Antonio Spurs

1.46

-10.19

11.65

8

1

2

Golden State Warriors

13.08

3.15

9.93

1

23

3

Oklahoma City Thunder

7.13

0.65

6.49

2

16

4

Boston Celtics

4.40

-0.03

4.43

5

13

5

Toronto Raptors

0.88

-3.46

4.35

9

6

6

Los Angeles Clippers

1.57

-2.69

4.26

7

8

7

Atlanta Hawks

0.04

-3.98

4.01

14

4

8

Cleveland Cavaliers

0.00

-3.94

3.93

15

5

9

Detroit Pistons

-0.09

-1.84

1.75

16

9

10

Utah Jazz

-5.88

-7.23

1.35

30

2

11

Charlotte Hornets

0.05

-1.21

1.26

13

12

12

Indiana Pacers

-0.19

-1.35

1.16

17

10

13

Portland Trail Blazers

2.46

1.55

0.91

6

19

14

Miami Heat

-3.16

-4.00

0.85

23

3

15

Houston Rockets

4.46

3.76

0.70

4

26

16

Dallas Mavericks

-0.54

0.06

-0.60

18

15

17

Memphis Grizzlies

-3.81

-2.76

-1.05

25

7

18

Washington Wizards

0.84

2.16

-1.32

10

21

19

Denver Nuggets

0.62

1.97

-1.34

11

20

20

Orlando Magic

-1.94

0.00

-1.94

21

14

21

Chicago Bulls

-1.45

0.77

-2.22

20

18

22

Sacramento Kings

4.65

6.99

-2.35

3

30

23

New York Knicks

-3.89

-1.30

-2.59

26

11

24

New Orleans Pelicans

0.13

3.56

-3.43

12

25

25

Milwaukee Bucks

-3.62

0.72

-4.34

24

17

26

Minnesota Timberwolves

-1.16

4.16

-5.32

19

28

27

Phoenix Suns

-1.99

3.99

-5.98

22

27

28

Brooklyn Nets

-4.04

2.33

-6.36

27

22

29

Los Angeles Lakers

-5.39

3.16

-8.55

29

24

30

Philadelphia 76ers

-4.61

5.02

-9.64

28

29