Wayne L. Winston's Blog, page 9

NFL Ratings Nov 13

The amazing Saints and Rams top our ratings.

Rank
Team
Off
Def
Total


1
New Orleans Saints
8.69
-3.88
12.58


2
Los Angeles Rams
9.59
-2.72
12.31


3
Jacksonville Jaguars
2.64
-6.56
9.20


4
Philadelphia Eagles
9.15
0.16
8.99


5
New England Patriots
7.06
-0.61
7.66


6
Kansas City Chiefs
6.07
-0.80
6.87


7
Minnesota Vikings
2.19
-4.14
6.32


8
Pittsburgh Steelers
-0.63
-5.72
5.09


9
Detroit Lions
6.49
2.58
3.91


10
Carolina Panthers
-3.34
-6.77
3.43


11
Seattle Seahawks
-0.73
-3.42
2.69


12
Atlanta Falcons
0.24
-2.42
2.66


13
Dallas Cowboys
3.35
0.72
2.64


14
Green Bay Packers
2.15
0.31
1.83


15
Baltimore Ravens
0.06
-0.86
0.92


16
Washington Redskins
1.17
0.25
0.92


17
Houston Texans
4.04
4.16
-0.12


18
Los Angeles Chargers
-3.87
-3.47
-0.41


19
Chicago Bears
-3.10
-1.33
-1.77


20
Buffalo Bills
-1.45
1.21
-2.66


21
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
-1.86
1.73
-3.59


22
Oakland Raiders
-0.75
2.91
-3.66


23
Tennessee Titans
-0.16
4.02
-4.17


24
New York Jets
-2.20
1.99
-4.19


25
Cincinnati Bengals
-6.20
-1.44
-4.76


26
Denver Broncos
-3.64
3.61
-7.25


27
Arizona Cardinals
-6.21
1.21
-7.42


28
Miami Dolphins
-7.52
0.41
-7.93


29
New York Giants
-5.54
2.75
-8.29


30
San Francisco 49ers
-4.62
4.29
-8.91


31
Indianapolis Colts
-3.95
6.95
-10.91


32
Cleveland Browns
-7.10
4.89
-11.99

NBA Ratings November 13

Warriors are lapping the field.Pistons and Grizzlies are my surprise teams so far.

Rank
Team
Offense
Defense
Rating


1
Golden State Warriors
15.54
2.03
13.52


2
Houston Rockets
6.42
-2.14
8.56


3
Boston Celtics
-3.72
-11.32
7.60


4
Toronto Raptors
5.67
0.12
5.55


5
Memphis Grizzlies
-4.50
-8.94
4.44


6
Detroit Pistons
-0.86
-5.24
4.38


7
Oklahoma City Thunder
-0.93
-5.08
4.15


8
San Antonio Spurs
-3.58
-6.12
2.54


9
Washington Wizards
3.48
1.05
2.44


10
Portland Trail Blazers
-2.18
-4.61
2.43


11
Los Angeles Clippers
3.46
1.59
1.87


12
Orlando Magic
4.87
3.17
1.70


13
Philadelphia 76ers
4.12
3.07
1.06


14
Charlotte Hornets
-0.26
-0.97
0.71


15
New Orleans Pelicans
1.54
0.85
0.70


16
Denver Nuggets
0.01
-0.66
0.67


17
New York Knicks
-0.33
-0.61
0.28


18
Milwaukee Bucks
0.23
0.71
-0.47


19
Miami Heat
-3.59
-2.65
-0.94


20
Indiana Pacers
2.95
4.04
-1.09


21
Minnesota Timberwolves
4.45
6.29
-1.84


22
Los Angeles Lakers
-1.23
1.32
-2.55


23
Utah Jazz
-9.23
-6.46
-2.77


24
Cleveland Cavaliers
3.94
8.05
-4.12


25
Brooklyn Nets
2.74
8.38
-5.64


26
Dallas Mavericks
-5.69
1.35
-7.04


27
Atlanta Hawks
-2.25
5.03
-7.28


28
Sacramento Kings
-10.19
-1.13
-9.06


29
Chicago Bulls
-11.88
-2.75
-9.13


30
Phoenix Suns
0.98
11.64
-10.67

November 6 NBA Ratings

The Cavs are really bad.

Rank
Team
Offense
Defense
Rating


1
Golden State Warriors
18.08
6.06
12.01


2
Boston Celtics
-2.50
-11.62
9.13


3
Oklahoma City Thunder
0.44
-7.90
8.34


4
Toronto Raptors
4.40
-3.19
7.59


5
Houston Rockets
5.80
-0.97
6.77


6
Portland Trail Blazers
0.11
-5.31
5.42


7
Detroit Pistons
-2.24
-6.57
4.33


8
Los Angeles Clippers
1.72
-2.53
4.25


9
Memphis Grizzlies
-5.04
-9.11
4.07


10
Washington Wizards
5.19
1.78
3.42


11
Philadelphia 76ers
3.54
1.88
1.66


12
San Antonio Spurs
-6.55
-7.56
1.01


13
Orlando Magic
3.49
2.78
0.71


14
Indiana Pacers
4.36
3.78
0.58


15
Minnesota Timberwolves
6.90
6.36
0.55


16
Utah Jazz
-6.77
-6.53
-0.25


17
Charlotte Hornets
-0.98
-0.37
-0.61


18
New York Knicks
-2.50
-1.57
-0.93


19
Denver Nuggets
-0.92
0.34
-1.26


20
New Orleans Pelicans
-0.57
0.39
-0.96


21
Los Angeles Lakers
1.03
2.09
-1.05


22
Milwaukee Bucks
1.61
2.97
-1.36


23
Miami Heat
-1.26
0.98
-2.24


24
Chicago Bulls
-13.48
-6.87
-6.62


25
Cleveland Cavaliers
1.77
8.66
-6.89


26
Brooklyn Nets
4.70
13.10
-8.40


27
Dallas Mavericks
-6.85
2.25
-9.09


28
Atlanta Hawks
-4.34
5.16
-9.50


29
Phoenix Suns
2.21
12.19
-9.98


30
Sacramento Kings
-11.34
-0.66
-10.67

NBA Ratings Nov 2

Here are updated NBA ratings

 

 

Team
Offense
Defense
Rating


Golden State Warriors
18.48
8.78
9.69


Oklahoma City Thunder
-0.24
-9.87
9.63


Toronto Raptors
5.14
-3.63
8.77


Los Angeles Clippers
3.15
-5.49
8.64


Portland Trail Blazers
-0.05
-7.55
7.50


Orlando Magic
8.03
2.04
5.99


Detroit Pistons
-2.57
-7.98
5.41


Boston Celtics
-3.82
-9.20
5.38


Washington Wizards
4.76
1.01
3.75


Houston Rockets
1.61
-2.10
3.71


Utah Jazz
-8.57
-12.24
3.66


Memphis Grizzlies
-7.95
-11.13
3.18


Indiana Pacers
5.77
3.92
1.85


Charlotte Hornets
0.80
-0.94
1.74


San Antonio Spurs
-7.02
-8.20
1.18


Denver Nuggets
2.53
1.66
0.87


Philadelphia 76ers
3.03
3.35
-0.32


Minnesota Timberwolves
8.67
9.20
-0.53


Los Angeles Lakers
-0.54
0.91
-1.45


New Orleans Pelicans
1.00
2.46
-1.46


Milwaukee Bucks
2.70
4.39
-1.69


New York Knicks
-2.13
0.13
-2.25


Miami Heat
-1.36
3.79
-5.15


Brooklyn Nets
4.93
11.72
-6.79


Phoenix Suns
4.77
12.68
-7.90


Cleveland Cavaliers
-2.28
6.73
-9.01


Dallas Mavericks
-4.05
5.41
-9.46


Atlanta Hawks
-7.14
3.72
-10.86


Sacramento Kings
-13.68
-1.65
-12.03


Chicago Bulls
-13.96
-1.89
-12.07

NBA Ratings Based on Median Performance Oct 28

Previous ratings were based on minimizing squared errors. The ratings below are based on “typical performance”. Note the huge difference in the Mavericks’ratings.

Team
Offense
Defense
Rating


Los Angeles Clippers
6.06
-9.46
15.52


Memphis Grizzlies
-4.55
-18.70
14.15


Golden State Warriors
17.05
5.42
11.63


Toronto Raptors
3.93
-5.70
9.63


Detroit Pistons
1.81
-5.68
7.49


Houston Rockets
5.06
-1.68
6.73


Washington Wizards
8.93
2.41
6.52


Boston Celtics
-4.14
-9.47
5.33


Portland Trail Blazers
0.10
-4.84
4.94


Dallas Mavericks
0.85
-3.70
4.56


Milwaukee Bucks
2.81
-1.50
4.32


New Orleans Pelicans
8.97
6.28
2.69


Utah Jazz
-9.17
-11.52
2.34


Orlando Magic
12.86
12.49
0.36


Cleveland Cavaliers
0.42
0.50
-0.07


Brooklyn Nets
5.86
6.49
-0.63


Charlotte Hornets
-6.97
-5.46
-1.51


Sacramento Kings
-5.94
-2.70
-3.23


Oklahoma City Thunder
-4.13
-0.80
-3.33


Philadelphia 76ers
0.03
3.50
-3.47


Miami Heat
-6.14
-2.50
-3.64


San Antonio Spurs
-13.19
-9.50
-3.69


Denver Nuggets
-4.06
0.54
-4.60


Indiana Pacers
7.86
12.48
-4.63


Los Angeles Lakers
-5.86
-0.50
-5.37


Minnesota Timberwolves
5.87
14.54
-8.67


New York Knicks
-4.32
6.23
-10.56


Atlanta Hawks
-6.19
4.50
-10.69


Phoenix Suns
5.32
18.29
-12.97


Chicago Bulls
-19.15
0.01
-19.16

NBA Ratings through October 28

Here are NBA ratings based on games through October 28. Of course, too early to use these for predicting, but they measure performance so far this year.

 

Team
Offense
Defense
Rating


Los Angeles Clippers
3.73
-9.38
13.12


Portland Trail Blazers
0.07
-12.07
12.14


Toronto Raptors
6.41
-2.51
8.92


Orlando Magic
9.99
1.27
8.72


Golden State Warriors
15.92
7.62
8.30


Memphis Grizzlies
-7.96
-13.68
5.73


Oklahoma City Thunder
-1.52
-7.13
5.61


Detroit Pistons
-0.66
-6.20
5.54


Boston Celtics
-5.56
-10.18
4.62


New Orleans Pelicans
8.77
5.04
3.73


Houston Rockets
2.57
-0.70
3.26


San Antonio Spurs
-7.03
-9.53
2.51


Washington Wizards
6.21
3.97
2.24


Indiana Pacers
8.71
8.10
0.61


Milwaukee Bucks
3.26
3.03
0.22


Utah Jazz
-12.80
-12.07
-0.73


Brooklyn Nets
8.36
10.13
-1.77


Philadelphia 76ers
0.04
2.62
-2.58


Charlotte Hornets
-5.89
-3.31
-2.59


Cleveland Cavaliers
0.43
3.04
-2.61


New York Knicks
-4.29
-1.54
-2.75


Miami Heat
-0.90
2.88
-3.78


Minnesota Timberwolves
8.11
12.26
-4.14


Los Angeles Lakers
-3.43
2.01
-5.44


Denver Nuggets
-3.13
2.49
-5.62


Sacramento Kings
-11.52
-2.79
-8.73


Dallas Mavericks
-3.00
6.09
-9.09


Atlanta Hawks
-7.90
3.43
-11.34


Phoenix Suns
5.35
17.27
-11.92


Chicago Bulls
-12.34
-0.16
-12.18

Preseason NFL Ratings based on Vegas Win Totals

Here are point ratings for NFL 2017 based on preseason Vegas over under win totals.

Team
Wins
Rating


Arizona Cardinals
8
-1.685646059


Atlanta Falcons
9.5
4.315627634


Baltimore Ravens
8.5
0.335351467


Buffalo Bills
6
-2.850167243


Carolina Panthers
8.5
1.204584493


Chicago Bears
5
-7.120442285


Cincinnati Bengals
8.5
0.053939571


Cleveland Browns
4
-10.24262942


Dallas Cowboys
9.5
4.37778835


Denver Broncos
8.5
3.151662179


Detroit Lions
7.5
-1.051829235


Green Bay Packers
10
4.514152479


Houston Texans
8.5
0.049507599


Indianapolis Colts
9
0.28139264


Jacksonville Jaguars
6
-6.452739946


Kansas City Chiefs
9
4.416922048


Los Angeles Chargers
7.5
0.066526653


Los Angeles Rams
4.5
-9.464371997


Miami Dolphins
7
-0.732867184


Minnesota Vikings
8.5
0.362705257


New England Patriots
12.5
12.01272802


New Orleans Saints
8
0.302883681


New York Giants
9
2.871473845


New York Jets
5
-6.203280803


Oakland Raiders
10
6.227556607


Philadelphia Eagles
8
0.449261378


Pittsburgh Steelers
10.5
5.322069831


San Francisco 49ers
4.5
-9.789675454


Seattle Seahawks
10.5
4.119690529


Tampa Bay Buccaneers
8.5
1.968286855


Tennessee Titans
8.5
-0.557131013


Washington Redskins
7.5
-0.253330477

NHL Ratings

Here we see what % each team is better or worse than average on offense and defense.

So Caps are 1.15% better than average on offense and 17% better than average on defense. To use this data to predict score of game take 2.75*1.05*Home offense*Road defense for Home team goals and 2.75*(1/1.05)*Home defense*Away offense for away team goals.

 

Team
Offense
Defense
Product


Washington   Capitals
1.15
0.83
1.39


Pittsburgh Penguins
1.28
1.04
1.23


Minnesota Wild
1.13
0.94
1.20


Columbus Blue Jackets
1.06
0.90
1.18


New York Rangers
1.10
0.94
1.16


Edmonton Oilers
1.09
0.95
1.15


Nashville Predators
1.07
0.93
1.15


Anaheim Ducks
1.01
0.89
1.14


St. Louis Blues
1.01
0.91
1.11


Montreal Canadiens
0.96
0.87
1.10


Boston Bruins
1.04
0.96
1.09


Chicago Blackhawks
1.03
0.95
1.09


San Jose Sharks
0.97
0.90
1.08


Toronto Maple Leafs
1.12
1.05
1.07


Tampa Bay Lightning
1.05
0.99
1.06


New York Islanders
1.08
1.05
1.03


Calgary Flames
1.01
0.99
1.02


Ottawa Senators
0.93
0.92
1.01


Los Angeles Kings
0.89
0.90
0.98


Winnipeg Jets
1.13
1.15
0.98


Philadelphia Flyers
0.97
1.00
0.97


Carolina Hurricanes
0.94
1.04
0.91


Florida Panthers
0.94
1.05
0.89


Buffalo Sabres
0.90
1.05
0.86


Detroit Red Wings
0.93
1.09
0.86


Dallas Stars
0.99
1.17
0.85


Arizona Coyotes
0.88
1.15
0.77


New Jersey Devils
0.81
1.08
0.75


Vancouver Canucks
0.80
1.08
0.74


Colorado Avalanche
0.74
1.23
0.6

NBA FInal Regular Season Ratings

More weight is given here to more recent games.

Rank
Team
Off
Def
Rating
Off Rank
Def Rank


1
Golden State Warriors
9.74
-1.55
11.29
2
10


2
San Antonio Spurs
-0.67
-7.66
6.99
15
2


3
Houston Rockets
10.07
4.36
5.72
1
26


4
Los Angeles Clippers
3.23
-1.14
4.36
6
12


5
Utah Jazz
-4.98
-9.01
4.04
28
1


6
Toronto Raptors
0.58
-2.83
3.41
11
7


7
Cleveland Cavaliers
4.87
2.40
2.47
4
22


8
Boston Celtics
2.33
0.07
2.26
9
16


9
Washington Wizards
3.96
2.43
1.52
5
23


10
Miami Heat
-2.25
-3.44
1.19
20
5


11
Oklahoma City Thunder
1.01
-0.17
1.18
10
15


12
Denver Nuggets
6.61
5.58
1.04
3
27


13
Memphis Grizzlies
-5.03
-5.97
0.94
29
3


14
Portland Trail Blazers
2.40
2.26
0.14
8
20


15
Chicago Bulls
-3.00
-3.12
0.12
25
6


16
Charlotte Hornets
-1.03
-0.75
-0.29
17
13


17
Indiana Pacers
-0.66
-0.27
-0.38
14
14


18
Milwaukee Bucks
-2.45
-1.85
-0.60
21
9


19
Minnesota Timberwolves
0.29
0.90
-0.61
13
19


20
Atlanta Hawks
-2.78
-1.49
-1.29
24
11


21
New Orleans Pelicans
-1.05
0.39
-1.45
18
17


22
Detroit Pistons
-4.30
-2.74
-1.56
27
8


23
Dallas Mavericks
-7.72
-5.22
-2.50
30
4


24
Sacramento Kings
-2.78
0.67
-3.45
23
18


25
New York Knicks
-1.61
2.38
-3.99
19
21


26
Phoenix Suns
2.44
7.56
-5.13
7
30


27
Philadelphia 76ers
-2.77
2.96
-5.73
22
25


28
Los Angeles Lakers
-0.77
5.65
-6.42
16
28


29
Brooklyn Nets
0.38
6.86
-6.49
12
29


30
Orlando Magic
-4.07
2.72
-6.79
26
24

NBA Ratings April 4

Again more weight is given to more recent games.

Rank
Team
Off
Def
Rating
Off Rank
Def Rank


1
Golden State Warriors
9.87
-1.62
11.49
2
9


2
San Antonio Spurs
0.01
-7.72
7.73
14
2


3
Houston Rockets
10.17
3.70
6.47
1
26


4
Utah Jazz
-5.34
-9.05
3.71
29
1


5
Toronto Raptors
1.09
-2.44
3.53
11
7


6
Los Angeles Clippers
2.82
-0.56
3.39
6
13


7
Cleveland Cavaliers
4.65
2.08
2.57
4
21


8
Boston Celtics
2.12
-0.33
2.45
8
14


9
Washington Wizards
4.01
2.37
1.64
5
22


10
Memphis Grizzlies
-4.78
-6.05
1.27
28
3


11
Oklahoma City Thunder
1.50
0.29
1.21
10
17


12
Miami Heat
-2.67
-3.44
0.77
21
5


13
Charlotte Hornets
-0.41
-1.04
0.63
15
12


14
Denver Nuggets
6.39
5.91
0.48
3
27


15
Milwaukee Bucks
-1.23
-1.30
0.07
18
11


16
Portland Trail Blazers
2.77
2.84
-0.07
7
25


17
Minnesota Timberwolves
0.13
0.49
-0.35
13
18


18
Chicago Bulls
-2.96
-2.15
-0.81
23
8


19
New Orleans Pelicans
-1.03
-0.18
-0.85
17
15


20
Indiana Pacers
-1.30
0.11
-1.41
19
16


21
Dallas Mavericks
-7.66
-5.80
-1.87
30
4


22
Detroit Pistons
-4.71
-2.83
-1.89
27
6


23
Atlanta Hawks
-3.36
-1.40
-1.97
25
10


24
Sacramento Kings
-3.13
0.61
-3.74
24
19


25
New York Knicks
-1.42
2.60
-4.01
20
24


26
Philadelphia 76ers
-2.75
2.42
-5.17
22
23


27
Phoenix Suns
1.84
7.40
-5.56
9
30


28
Orlando Magic
-4.24
1.88
-6.12
26
20


29
Brooklyn Nets
0.29
6.60
-6.31
12
29


30
Los Angeles Lakers
-0.69
6.60
-7.30
16
28