Exponential Smoothing Ratings

Here I started with team ratings based on Vegas preseason over under wins. Then I used exponential smoothing with alpha=.10 to update ratings. for example, if a team was favored by 10 in a game and won by 20, their rating would increase by .1*(20-10) = 1 point. This method gives more weight to more recent games. For example weight for last week’s game = .9*weight for current game. With these ratings I cannot predict the score of a game. only margin of victory. NFC is looking tough with top 3 teams.  These ratings seem consistent with the late season declines of NE, GB, DEN, and CINN. They also show the great improvement made by teams like the Lions and Seahawks. I will use these ratings  to estimate playoff probabilities by tomorrow.

 

RANK
TEAM
RATING


1
SEA
11.7


2
CAR
9.2


3
ARI
8.3


4
PITT
7.2


5
CINN
6.3


6
KC
6.1


7
MINN
5.5


8
NE
5.3


9
DEN
3.9


10
JETS
2.8


11
GB
2.6


12
HOU
2.3


13
WASH
2


14
BUFF
1.7


15
DET
-0.2


16
STL
-1.5


17
OAK
-2.4


18
GIANTS
-2.5


19
ATL
-2.6


20
BALT
-3.1


21
SD
-3.2


22
PHI
-3.2


23
CHI
-3.3


24
NO
-3.6


25
DALL
-4


26
MIA
-4.3


27
INDY
-4.9


28
SF
-6


29
TAMPA
-6.3


30
CLE
-6.6


31
JACK
-6.7


32
TENN
-10.5