Stephen Clapham's Blog, page 3
October 10, 2024
Steve was quoted in Citywire
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September 16, 2024
August 28, 2024
August 27, 2024
August 15, 2024
#38 – The Cyclist
/*! elementor - v3.22.0 - 24-06-2024 */.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-stacked .elementor-drop-cap{background-color:#69727d;color:#fff}.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-framed .elementor-drop-cap{color:#69727d;border:3px solid;background-color:transparent}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap{margin-top:8px}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap-letter{width:1em;height:1em}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap{float:left;text-align:center;line-height:1;font-size:50px}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap-letter{display:inline-block} Peter Oppenheimer is chief global equity strategist and head of Macro Research at Goldman Sachs in Europe and the author of two books on market cycles.
SUMMARY
Peter Oppenheimer is chief global equity strategist and head of Macro Research at Goldman Sachs in Europe and the author of two books on market cycles. His first book, the Long Good Buy is sub-titled Analysing Cycle sin Markets. His follow-up book Any Happy Returns, is sub-titled Structural Changs and Super Cycles in Markets and looks at longer term secular trends and looks to the future outlook for economies and markets. Our discussion covers both.
Our episode title refers to Peter’s study of cycles in markets, but amusingly for a partner at Goldman Sachs, he arrived for our recording on a bike, not their usual mode of transport.
GETTING INTO INVESTINGPeter wanted to do research and write and happened into investing by chance - he wanted to do a Masters and a PhD but didn’t have enough money and this was in the mid-1980s, when Big Bang transformed the City of London and stockbroking firms hoovered up talent. He went to do research to get some money together for further studies which have been postponed ever since.
Some takeawaysWriting Two BooksThe only reason you write a book is ignorance or arrogance or a combination of the two. Peter felt that he had been working as a research analyst since 1985 and if he hadn’t learned a few things which were worth writing down, it would have been a waste of time. And he wanted to write about the frameworks around cycles which he had learned, although the process of writing a book was difficult to fit into his busy schedule as a macro analyst at Goldman Sachs.
The Four Phases of a Stockmarket CycleThe Four Phases of the Equity Cycle
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
In his first book, the Long Good Buy, Peter describes the four phases of a stockmarket cycle as Despair, Hope, Growth and Optimism. The despair phase is normally characterised by recession and a steep fall in prices. The Hope phase tends to be quite short and in this phase which tends to be quite strong, price is driven by valuation. The Growth phase is longer and companies are profitable but the returns have been already anticipated in the Hope phase. And then you get increasing Optimism towards the end of the cycle and that can get into exuberance and a bubble mentality which then dictates the extent of the fall.
Returns are quite different in these phases:
Returns in the 4 Phases
Source: Datastream, Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
And so are the durations:
Source: Datastream, Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Market ConcentrationThe US has become a much bigger component of the index and there is greater concentration at the stock level. It’s not just the Mag 7 in the US, one-third of the S&P500 capitalisation, the greatest concentration in 100 years; it’s similar in Europe – the GRANOLAs are one quarter of the European capitalisation. Peter doesn’t think this is irrational, rather it reflects fundamentals – the US corporate sector has outgrown the rest of the world and the tech sector, for example, has been extremely profitable. But although the concentration is not irrational, it creates a diversification risk for investors. This is not a new phenomenon, however, as can be seen from the chart:
Market Concentration over Time
Source: Datastream, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
The railroads were dominant 150 years ago, the autos were dominant in the 1950s, the oil companies were dominant in the 1970s. And for a brief period before the financial crisis the banks were in the lead but Peter sees that as anomalous, a bubble.
Types of Bear MarketMost cycles end with bear markets but not all bears are equal. Cyclical bear markets are most common and are triggered by rising rates, and accompanies by falling profits. Historically, prices fall by around 30% on average. This takes 3-6 months. Event driven bear markets are triggered by an exogenous shock. They cause similar falls of 30% but they are sharp and short. Structural bear markets are rarer but are more severe – a fall of 60% but can take 5-10 years to recover. They are usually preceded by bubbles, often with rising rates and property crises where leverage magnifies the problems eg 1929, Japan in the 1980s and the GFC.
Spotting Bear MarketsBuying expensive markets generates low returns over a 10 year timeframe and that is the danger today. Periods of rising unemployment after very low levels is also a potential signal of a bear market. The health of the private sector is also a trigger – if you have a lot of leverage and a rising rate cycle, then it can cause an unwinding of the leverage and forced asset sales and further problems. These have been quite healthy and generally corporate sector and bank balance sheets have been more resilient to the rising rates than they have been in the past.
The average bear market troughs around 9 months before a recovery in corporate earnings per share (S&P 500 actual earnings).
Bear Markets vs Corporate Earnings
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
There is more debt in the private markets, which Steve suggested is a concern. Peter thinks the data is harder in private markets and the history is much shorter and there is less regulation. He points out the weakness in the commercial real estate markets in the US but there haven’t been any real systemic effects and if interest rates come down quickly enough, then when refinancing is required, the cost of capital will be lower again. But he thinks we are not out of the woods yet and we should be focused on private markets.
S&P MarginsIn his book, Peter charts US Profit Share of GDP vs S&P Net Income Margin. This is similar to the NIPA vs S&P margin used by Steve and in both cases the S&P margins look high. Peter attributes this to lower tax rates benefiting international companies more and the S&P having a higher proportion of high margin tech. Steve acknowledges these factors but thinks this also indicates an element of S&P 500 companies boosting their margins through more aggressive accounting.
Source: Wm Blair, 20/10/23
Peter reckons that buybacks have boosted eps particularly in the US and increasingly recently in Europe. He also thinks the compositional issue is important because of the size of the high margin tech stocks having a disproportionate effect on the index’s margin. The secular rise in margins since the 1990s reflects technology and innovation and the effect of increased world trade, globalisation, a trend to low tax rates, and lower interest charges and a period where there were ample supplies of commodities and labour pushing down input costs – the profit share of GDP rose. More recently, we are starting to see an inflection with labour costs going up, and there is evidence of corporate margins moderating.
Markets OutlookThat suggests slower markets for going forward – rates are unlikely to trend down and valuations are less likely to continue to rise. Profits growth is likely to be more differentiated across markets, sectors and companies. Nominal GDP growth will be moderate, with lower inflation. It will be positive but lower, with an ageing population, and returns across financial assets will likely be lower.
In the last decade, diversification in a multi-asset sense didn’t really benefit risk-adjusted returns. And within equities, all you wanted to own was US tech. Peter sees this as a product of abnormally low rates. Going forward, greater diversification will be beneficial, both across asset classes and within equities across sectors.
Correlations within markets has fallen and dispersion has increased which means the outlook for alpha generation has improved.
And there are two massively important trends, AI and decarbonisation. And AI requires massive amounts of power so we shall need a lot of physical infrastructure for this and for decarbonisation. These two trends will be quite transformational. AI can boost productivity and with decarbonisation means the marginal cost of energy will collapse, which again is beneficial for productivity.
About Peter OppenheimerPeter is chief global equity strategist and head of Macro Research at Goldman Sachs in Europe. He joined Goldman Sachs in 2002 as European and global strategist and was named managing director in 2003 and partner in 2006. Peter formerly worked as chief investment strategist at HSBC and was previously head of European strategy at James Capel. Prior to that, he was chief economic strategist at Hambros Bank. Peter began his career as an economist at Greenwells in 1985.
Peter is a trustee of The Anna Freud National Centre for Children and Families, a children’s charity dedicated to providing training and support for child mental health services. He is also a trustee of Mitzvah Day, a charity that brings people together from all backgrounds, through Jewish-led social action. Peter earned a BSc, first class, in Geography from the London School of Economics in 1985.
Peter is not a big user of social media.
Peter talks about two types of secular trends in markets – one is a secular bull. What is his term for the other? Email us at info@behindthebalancesheet.com with comp in the subject line, you answer, and your address and the lucky winner(s) will receive a copy of both books, hopefully signed.
THE BOOKSHis first book, the Long Good Buy is sub-titled Analysing Cycles in Markets. His follow-up book Any Happy Returns, is sub-titled Structural Changes and Super Cycles in Markets and looks at longer term secular trends and looks to the future outlook for economies and markets.
Buy on amazon.com Buy on amazon.co.UK
Buy on amazon.com Buy on amazon.co.UK HOW STEVE KNOWS THE GUESTSteve used Goldmans as one of his brokers when at the hedge funds and had taken an interest in some of Peter’s work (and that of David Kostin, his US counterpart). A few months before the recording, they bumped into each other at a drinks party and Steve invited Peter on the podcast. Peter is the first current Goldman employee to come on the show but past guests include former Goldman partners #10 Lord O’Neill and #21 Gavyn Davies.
ChaptersTranscript
Prev#37 – The Analyst
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July 18, 2024
#37 – The Analyst
/*! elementor - v3.22.0 - 24-06-2024 */.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-stacked .elementor-drop-cap{background-color:#69727d;color:#fff}.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-framed .elementor-drop-cap{color:#69727d;border:3px solid;background-color:transparent}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap{margin-top:8px}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap-letter{width:1em;height:1em}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap{float:left;text-align:center;line-height:1;font-size:50px}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap-letter{display:inline-block} John Armitage is the co-founder and CIO of Egerton Capital which is celebrating its 30th anniversary. He has an outstanding track record and is the only guest to have returned for a second interview.
SUMMARY
John is our first podcast guest to return for a second episode. He is incredibly humble for such a successful investor. In our first podcast conversation, he said
“I like working. I never feel successful. I measure success by the recent past.”
Armitage attributed his success to a decent dose of insecurity and being a workaholic. His ingredients for success were:
Finding something you likeFeeling you have more to learnAnd always worryingIn this, our second podcast conversation, he explains how he started with $10m and 5 people and how they were thrilled when they got to $150m after one year. And he acknowledges that it would be a lot more difficult to start out on that journey today.
Stockmarkets are more difficult today because there is more competition in active management – the capital in investment management is human capital and it’s natural, given the rewards available, for talent to be attracted to the industry. Meanwhile, the performance of active managers is affected by the performance of single shares that they don’t own in a way it never used to be, as the rise of passive has reinforced the dominance of the big tech stocks while the active industry is structurally underweight.
He touches on his portfolio, where he has 35-40 long positions and is more concentrated in his top positions than he used to be, although the size of his funds inhibits that. John is concerned about concentration as he feels that it’s easy to get too familiar with the stocks and become complacent and then you suddenly realise that one has been underperforming for a while.
He talks about his recent investments in the insurance sector and how not owning Nvidia has made matching the benchmark an uphill struggle. He talks about how he sees AI and its possible impact on Alphabet and on Meta. And he explains his views on Tesla which were sceptical in our first conversation and haven’t changed much. John also talks about some of his favourite stocks and sectors, but you will have to listen to the show! John has invested in Japan but he questions the extent to which Japan is a macro trade, benefiting from the currency depreciation.
We also discussed his approach to investing and his focus on the long term. He explains why he requires his analysts to follow more than one sector and why he doesn’t employ data scientists. John considers himself an analyst, hence the title of this episode.
He reveals why he thinks his performance might suffer if he had permanent capital, and he thinks that liquidity is healthy for his investors. He doesn’t say it explicitly, but I felt that the performance matters more to him than the wealth he would personally accrue.
Armitage is an intense and thoughtful investor and has strong feelings about societal problems, perhaps reflecting his interest in history (studied Modern History at Pembroke College, Cambridge). In the interview he talks about Brexit; having backed the remain campaign, although he would have preferred a different result, he was also concerned that it might have left the country divided. And on Hamas and Israel, while he believes in a two state solution and is concerned about what is happening in Gaza, he points out that Hamas could simply release the hostages. It’s clear that John has a deep understanding of the geo-political landscape.
Steve learned a lot from sitting down with John for an hour and confesses to being rather in awe of him. John talks about having to focus on what’s important and while that seems obvious, it’s rather profound.
ABOUT JOHN ArmitageJohn Armitage CBE is the co-founder and CIO of Egerton Capital. John’s track record in the 30 years since inception is simply stellar – the hedge fund has beaten the S&P hands down and it must be one of the longest running (and one of the best) major hedge funds in the world.
Armitage is in his 60s, and founded Egerton with William Bollinger, formerly of Tiger, in 1994, having previously worked for Morgan Grenfell Asset Management which he joined from university. He studied Modern History at Pembroke College Cambridge.
John does not have a presence on social media.
Steve has known John Armitage for several years; he and his family interests are invested in Egerton funds; and Egerton Capital is a client of Behind the Balance Sheet.
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June 19, 2024
#36 – The Runner
/*! elementor - v3.21.0 - 26-05-2024 */.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-stacked .elementor-drop-cap{background-color:#69727d;color:#fff}.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-framed .elementor-drop-cap{color:#69727d;border:3px solid;background-color:transparent}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap{margin-top:8px}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap-letter{width:1em;height:1em}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap{float:left;text-align:center;line-height:1;font-size:50px}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap-letter{display:inline-block} John Huber runs a small long term asset management firm and runs 50 miles per week.
John Huber is an investor with a small fund managing his family assets and outside capital in a concentrated portfolio. John has written an excellent blog, Base Hit Investing, for many years, explaining his investing principles. We discuss these in this episode, including what John looks for in an investment, why he emphasises capital allocation even more today, where he sees the sweet spot in revenue growth, why he likes Alphabet, why he is focused in North American stocks but is now looking at Japan and US small caps and why Floor & Décor is one of his major positions.
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GETTING INTO INVESTINGJohn started out in real estate, profiting from dislocations in residential markets in the global financial crisis. That allowed him to accumulate the capital he needed to embark on his true love, investing and to set up a fund modelled on the Buffett Partnership.
Some takeawaysWhat John Looks forHuber looks for 4 things in an investment:
a durable business that passes what Buffett would call the 10-year test. You can close your eyes and look out 10 years and understand what the company’s doing or visualize what the company’s doing.a company that’s producing high returns on capitalgood capital allocation, sort of a management test.John now places a greater emphasis on the third criteria of capital allocation. He noticed from some of the investments that have worked often have to do with management doing rational things with the capital. Notably, share buybacks.
Growth Traps
John has written in the past about there being three drivers to make money from an investment
– growth in the business
– change in the valuation
– and the change in the number of shares.
He refers to this framework as the 3 Engines. And people over-emphasise the first part, the growth. Some of the best stocks of all time have not been fast growers. I mean, there are a few like Amazon and Netflix and others, but a lot of them have been just “steady eddie”, six, eight, 10% growers, like in O’Reilly Auto Parts, that uses its free cash flow to buy back shares.
You get say 8% from growth, you might benefit from a valuation increase, but you don’t even need that much because the secret sauce is if a stock trades at 10 times earnings, they can buy back a lot of their shares over time.
John cites Peter Lynch who felt that 20% revenue growth was a ceiling when it came to what companies could manage and he cites John Neff who also looked for lower growth rates. Huber believes his sweet spot is companies growing revenues between 6% and 12%.
Alphabet
Huber has a significant position in the stock in his fund. After doing a talk at Google in 2018, he remarked that “the culture (and more specifically, the incredible talent) of these firms is somewhat under appreciated, … Google has an unusually large number of employees who are not just super smart, but also very humble. There is an introspective focus on continuous improvement and long-term thinking that is very palpable there.”
He also remarked that “Culture, employee talent, and workplace satisfaction are three things that don’t show up in the numbers, ..but they are extremely important to the long-term earning power of the company..”
He still admires Google and thinks it’s a phenomenal company. The culture was undervalued in 2018 and still is today. He thinks one thing that has changed in the ensuing six years is some of those factors have become more appreciated in the market, I think. In 2014- 2016, Google and Apple, where Google traded under 15 times earnings, Apple traded at eight times free cash flow, net of cash which were incredible valuations for these companies. He felt that the culture, the human capital component to these companies, doesn’t show up in the numbers, but has an incredible amount of value. And he thinks that’s still obviously the case, although more of that value has now been recognised.
Overseas Investing
John visited ChHina pre-Covid with his friends Connor Leonard and Jake Rosser (two investors Steve greatly admires). One takeaway was that venture capitalists there rivalled Silicon Valley. It was ultra competitive, with everyone starting a new business, a new venture. One of the things he learned on that trip was that China was going to be a difficult place to invest in.
His next trip will likely be to Japan where he likes the changes happening with the authorities encouraging buybacks. He thinks that trapped capital there has stifled economic growth and this will now be released. A number of our recent podcasts have talked about Japan:
#29 with James Aitken; #30 with Grant Williams; and #32 with Jonathan Ruffer.
Small Caps
John believes that there’s a dichotomy between large stocks and small stocks in valuation. So he has been looking a lot more at small stocks because he finds them to be attractively priced. And those companies are more willing to meet and he finds that valuable and useful.
Floor & Décor
This is one of John’s largest positions and he is attracted to it because he sees a a significant contribution from the growth engine – close to 20%. It dominates a very fragmented space. They’re the biggest player in retail flooring., with probably 13,000 mom and pop shops around the United States – a very fragmented group of small competitors that can’t compete with Floor & Decor because they don’t have the same scale. And the industry backdrop of housing has gone through ups and downs but over the long term, he thinks that business is positioned to do well with a really strong moat.
And here is the latest Floor & Decor valuation snapshot per Sentieo, priced at $119.81:
John runs 50 miles a week and thinks investing and running share long feedback loops – it takes a long time for compounding to work in investing and in health.
John’s Portfolio
Here is John’s portfolio as per his last 13-F at the time we published on 20 June, positions as of March 31 – these have been independently sourced and not verified. These certainly are not investment recommendations – always do your own research.
ABOUT JOHN HUBER
John Huber is the Managing Partner of Saber Capital Management, LLC whose partnership is modelled after the original Buffett Partnership fee structure, with no management fees, and a performance fee above a 6%pa threshold.
The goal is to invest in a collection of durable businesses that can compound value at double digit rates of return over the long run. Prior to forming Saber in 2013, John spent nearly a decade investing in real estate.
You can find John on Twitter, read his Substack and follow Saber Capital Management.
John recommended 3 books. Built from Scratch is the story of Home Depot, which John sees as the model for his second largest holding, Floor & Decor.
Buy on amazon.com Buy on amazon.co.UK
Peter Cundill, There’s Always Something to Do has been previously recommended.
Buy on amazon.com Buy on amazon.co.UK He also recommended Neff on Investing which is a book Steve rates highly:
Buy on amazon.com Buy on amazon.co.UK HOW STEVE KNOWS THE GUESTSteve has followed John’s blog Base Hit Investing for many years and one reason for doing the podcast was to enable conversations with investors whose writing he enjoyed. Chris Pavese (#12) was another investor with a small fund (or in Chris’ case family office) whose writing Steve liked and who turned out to be a fantastic podcast guest. Similarly with Richard Oldfield (#13) who is a brilliant writer and was another super guest. If you enjoy the conversation with John, check out those two also.
Chapters
Transcript
PrevE3 – Carine Smith Ihenacho
The post #36 – The Runner appeared first on Behind The Balance Sheet.
April 30, 2024
April 18, 2024
#33 – The Stoic
/*! elementor - v3.20.0 - 26-03-2024 */.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-stacked .elementor-drop-cap{background-color:#69727d;color:#fff}.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-framed .elementor-drop-cap{color:#69727d;border:3px solid;background-color:transparent}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap{margin-top:8px}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap-letter{width:1em;height:1em}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap{float:left;text-align:center;line-height:1;font-size:50px}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap-letter{display:inline-block} Peter Cowley is a successful angel investor and business man. But it was his tragic private life which prompted this interview.
SUMMARYPeter Cowley has been a business man for 50 years. He was Business Angel of the Year and has invested in 76 start-ups, exiting a quarter of those, including a 100+ bagger in 6 years. He has mentored over 1000 entrepreneurs., received an honorary doctorate, and chaired and been a director of number of charities. Yet, his private life has been a stark contrast to this business success.
Cowley’s brother died of leukemia, aged 21. His sister dies of alcoholism in her 50s. Cowley too was an alcoholic, enjoying gin or vodka for breakfast, leading to what he calls his “lost decade”.
In his autobiography, he talks about the early death of close friends and his ex-wife. But these pale into insignificance when you read that not one, but two of his three sons committed suicide.
Cowley was diagnosed with terminal cancer which was successfully treated but the cancer mutated and he was diagnosed with 18 months to live. Just nine are left. Cowley is remarkably sanguine about his fate, and in our discussion, to my amazement, called himself fortunate.
This is not my usual podcast interview. I have learned a lot about investing from these conversations and a few have taught me some life lessons.
But every day since I met him, I have thought of Cowley and felt grateful. I hope many of you will feel the same.
Peter Cowley is a tech entrepreneur and angel investor, based in Cambridge. He has founded a number of tech and property business and has invested in over 75 technology startups. He was on the board of the UK Business Angels Association, where he was awarded UK Angel of the Year in 2014 and he was President of the European Business Angel Network.
Cowley authored a book on angel investment titled The Invested Investor and a second titled Founder to Founder. He has been suffering from late stage cancer since late 2021. His book about his experience of personal tragedy, terminal illness and business success Public Success Private Grief is published on April 17, 2024.
Peter Cowley’s book chronicles his achievements in business but more powerfully, in private, his personal grief and calamity have been unfathomable:
Two of his three children lost to suicideTheir mother died unexpectedlyHis sister lost to alcoholismHis brother died aged 21 from cancerTwo decades in recovery from alcoholismNow diagnosed with terminal Stage 4c cancer, Peter wrote his final book in his last few months, together with his wife, Liesbeth.
Public Success, Private Grief details for the first time the succession of tragic events which have shaped Peter’s life and fuelled his relentless drive and ambition. Peter shares how he has managed to find positivity and strength in the face of abject adversity, turning post-traumatic stress into post-traumatic success instead.
This book doesn’t make easy reading. But it is, at its heart and as is intended, an inspirational and self-empowering memoir about overcoming tragedy and forging resilience, which many will benefit from.
Amazon UK link
Peter Cowley website
HOW STEVE KNOWS THE GUESTSteve read Peter’s story in the Times and asked him to come on the podcast. Hopefully, it will also make people aware of how common suicide is among young men. Surprisingly, Peter is not the only guest to have had this horrific experience. Steve feels we should be more aware of this risk.
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