Is 4.7 % the NEW 4.0 % Safe Withdrawal Rate

Bill Bengen, the godfather / creator of the 4% safe withdrawal rate (SWR), or rule, has just published a new book available on Amazon -  A Richer Retirement: Supercharging the 4% Rule to Spend More and Enjoy More.I have not read the book, however, he has done a number of interviews on YouTube.  The gist is that with a more diversified portfolio, as compared to that used to generate the original 4% rule, the new SWR should be raised to at least4.7 %.1) the original 4% SWR was not what his original study showed - it really was determined to be 4.15% - it was rounded down to 4% for unclear reasons.2) per Michael Kitces, using a 4% SWR, 2/3 of retirees portfolios will grow to be greater than 2.5 x what they started retirement with, by the time they pass.3) real world date has shown that retiree spending declines by ~ 1 % per year, meaning that spending will go down by 30% over a 30 year retirement (compunding effect disregarded)Are we vastly underspending our financial resources ? Keep in mind that an increase from 4.0 to 4.7 % is a very large increase in "permissible " spending. On a 2.5 M portfolio spending would increase from 100 K/yr to 117.5 K/yr, which is a highly significant bump up in annual spending.

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Published on August 17, 2025 11:01
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