Jonathan Clements's Blog, page 17

The Ties That Bind

This post explores another aspect of Dr. Lefty’s exceptional article of July 10, 2025, “Estrangements and Estates”.  Specifically that of Reconciliation. People are just beginning to talk about estrangement even though one out of four families —or 30% of American families have an estranged member, as cited in Dr. Lefty’s article.  That’s a pretty big number.

When someone severs ties, it’s not about a day that went wrong, or even one event that happened. It’s an accumulation of things that  pile up and fester, and some trivial misunderstanding that no one even remembers can trigger an estrangement.

There are many reasons for an estrangement.  I think we can agree that toxic relationships might include drug abuse, violence, mental health issues, involvement in unlawful activities and so on.  But there are other intolerable situations such as certain personality disorders that can drive a person to put an end to the relationship. Difficult childhood histories, abusive parenting—These get carried over into adulthood. Now, unfortunately, we also have polarizing political views. Business deals gone wrong or loans un-repaid are also archetypal.  The list goes on.

If reconciliation is your goal, both parties may have to settle for a different relationship. You can go home again but it may well be a different home.. The other person may never live up to your values or your standards.  The question you need to ask yourself is do I really want this person in my life.  If the answer is yes, remember It takes two to reconcile.

There has to be enough love on both sides for the reconciliation to work. Love is fundamental to reconciliation. You may not forget but you can forgive.  Love is a word that is bandied about.  Too many people have a skewed idea of what love is—a misunderstanding of the different types of love and its deep meaning.  True love has strength and resilience.  It “bears all things”.  But studies have shown that each of us has a different capacity for forgiveness.

There is a secrecy attached to estrangement.  Because of the shame and taboo nature of the subject, people are ashamed to express their feelings. The emotional pain and confusion it brings make it very difficult to talk about.   People view estrangement as isolating. They tend to think there is something wrong with your family. There is a stigma attached to it.

When people look back at what went wrong they have divergent views of the past.  They can’t even agree on who said what or what actually occurred.  If a reconciliation is to come about, It may be best to start with the present and work from there.

Reconciliation will never bring back the relationship to the same level it was, but it still may be good to be back in the relationship—and who doesn’t  like to think it’s never too late.  Family membership is forever.  If reconciliation is on your mind, don’t wait another day. I write from experience. The first sentence of a short message can be  “I love you.”.

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Portfolio Shift: It’s Really Different This Time

I have a confession to make: Over the past year, I’ve been moving money out of U.S. Treasuries and into international stocks. For someone who’s long preferred safety over risk, this marks a major shift.

The catalyst, somewhat surprisingly, was a 2024 memo: Howard Marks’ “Sea Change.” Marks—a legend in the investment world—made the case that we’re living through only the third true inflection point in markets since the 1970s. He highlighted structural shifts: the end of a four-decade era of declining interest rates, rising inflation, and a reversal (or at least stalling) of globalization. The playbook investors used from 2009 to 2021 may no longer apply.

I once relied on Treasuries as my security blanket. More importantly, the relationships I once counted on—stocks and bonds moving oppositely, Treasuries as a “risk-off” haven—seem less reliable now. Instead of cushioning equity losses, bonds have occasionally fallen in tandem with stocks, particularly in inflationary shocks. That safety net? It’s not what it used to be.

So, why international stocks? For one, they’re cheaper. And now I’m seeing more evidence to support the shift. A recent Morningstar article breaks down research showing that valuation expansion—the increase in the price investors is willing to pay per dollar of earnings—has driven most of the U.S. market’s gains since 2008. Fundamentals took a backseat. From 2008 to the end of 2024, the CAPE ratio for U.S. equities more than doubled. In contrast, the MSCI EAFE index (which tracks developed markets outside the U.S. and Canada) saw its CAPE rise just 36%. Historically, when valuations double, markets often underperform in the following decade. It’s a sobering correlation.

Are you sticking with the old playbook? Or have you made similar moves? I’d love to hear how the HumbleDollar community sees the future of investing—especially when we tune out the political noise.

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I’ve decided to put my opinions to good use. I’m going to become an advice columnist. You know, like Ann Landers, Dear Abby, Miss Manners.

Who doesn’t like to give advice and these days and I would have Gemini and ChatGTP to help.  

To keep it friendly I’m thinking of going by Dear Dickie.

Think of all the good I could do encouraging people to give up their budgets and spreadsheets and aim for 100% base pay replacement in retirement, including use of an immediate annuity, dividends and interest. I’d tell them to make sure they leave a modest legacy if possible, but to travel the world or at least the US. 

Here is a sample of how I envision my column.

Dear Dickie, do I need a budget? I can’t seem to save. Signed Frugalist

Dear Frugalist: nah, a budget won’t help. Get your act together, discipline is what it’s about. Stay out of the snack and prepared meals aisles, you don’t need another tattoo and make your own coffee in the morning. 

Dear Dickie, my spreadsheet says I can retire at 73, but I want to retire at 53, what can I do? Signed Dreamon 

Dear Dreamon, that’s easy, next time throw me a fast ball. Change your investment return assumptions and your life expectancy until it does work. You might want to check out crypto. I hear that’s a solid investment. 

Dear Dickie, I’m retiring soon and plan to relocate to Hawaii, any thoughts about this. Signed Alone

Dear Alone, I’m assuming the move is not to save money, but more like getting away from family and friends. Good idea, not many of them will schlep 12 hours to visit. Have you considered living full-time on a cruise ship? 

Dear Dickie, I have $1,000,000 saved, can I retire? I’m 45.  Signed Early

Dear Early, No doubt you can retire, but whether you can eat at the same time is up in the air. Have you considered a monastery? 

Dear Dickie, I hear a great deal about living within your means. Does that include making minimum monthly payments on all my five credit cards? Signed Livinitup

Dear Livinitup, let me think about that. If your means includes bankruptcy and poverty, I think it does. Seriously, cut back dude, your means ain’t what you think it is. I’d stop using those credit cards - right after the next family trip to DisneyWorld. 

Dear Dickie, my coworkers keep telling me to save in our company 401k, but I think I’m better off investing on my own, any thoughts? Signed Will Besorry.

Dear Will, I have a bridge and ten acres of slightly moist land for sale at bargain prices. Not sure it will beat that 50% company match on your contributions to the 401k though. Your coworkers may be on to something. 

Dear Dickie, I want to be sure my investments are diversified so I’m using large cap index funds from Fidelity, Vanguard and Schwab. Is that okay? Signed Clueless 

Dear Clueless, let me put if this way, you are about as diversified as buying Lays, Cape Cod and Wise potato chips. You need to add some Fritos and Cheese Doodles.

Dear Dickie, should I start my Social Security at age 62? Signed Earlybird

Dear Earlybird, that’s a tough one. How long do you plan on living and with how much money? I’m going to refer you to an engineer with serious spreadsheet skills.  

So there you have it, the future of modern advice columns. Any questions?

The post I’ve decided to put my opinions to good use. I’m going to become an advice columnist. You know, like Ann Landers, Dear Abby, Miss Manners. appeared first on HumbleDollar.

The Unsettling Relief of Saying Goodbye

It would have been my mum's 91st birthday this week. She passed two years ago this June after the long goodbye from the thousand small cuts of dementia. Although I experienced grief and sadness, it truly was a relief to bid my mum the final farewell after the long marathon of loss over many years. I gave a final kiss to the echo of the woman before me as the heat of life left mum's body.

Should you celebrate your release from the hard years of struggling to care for a loved parent when their passing finally arrives? I struggled with this emotionally conflicting thought for quite a while through the spring of this emotion's awakening.

I soothed my conscience over time by thinking about my own children. I came to realize that I would not want them to endure such hard emotional caregiver duties when my time comes. Although I'm sure they would embrace it with commitment, it's not the path I wish for them. This gave me the realization that my own mum would have hoped not to have this gladly taken burden thrust upon me. This revelation helped me come to true terms with myself and the unsettling relief of embracing my mum's passing.

Social expectations around grief gently corral your thoughts away from feeling this relief, but I believe it's an important issue that needs more understanding and exploration. The unfortunate reality is that many of our age group are going to face this uncomfortable emotional experience. Forward thinking and discussion can help you deal with this possible guilt-inducing turmoil during an already difficult time.

I hope my thoughts don't cause offence. I only want to share an emotional journey to acceptance—the acceptance that relief can coexist with the deep loss of a beloved parent.

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How do I scam thee? Let me count the ways

I remember calls from “boiler room” investment salesmen back in the 70s.
How about “airplanes”? Those chain letter type scams. I actually fell for one of those. I felt so bad that I refunded the people that got in below me.
The Iraq Dinar? I know two people who have died waiting for the currency to revalue, and another guy who still believes it’s going to happen.
The Nigerian Prince scam. A friend of mine lost a couple $k on this one.  She was afraid to tell her husband. I don’t blame her.
The Grandson Scam. One of my sweetest widow clients lost about $25K on this. She may have been old, but she was not someone who I thought would be vulnerable. She explained to me in minute detail how the scam unfolded. You think you are not vulnerable? Think again.
Various Romance Scams. A friend  not much older than me, somehow was befriended by a beautiful South African girl (he showed me texted pictures), who inherited gold bars from daddy. She just needed some cash to get them out of storage. She would then send them to his local police department, in care of him, and then fly into the USA to live happily ever after with my pal. Even after I showed him evidence and history of the fraud, he didn’t believe it. His daughter got hold of his phone and deleted its history, but he eventually found his South African  girlfriend. The only consolation is that he has no savings to get scammed out of, just what he can spare from his SS. 
Fake law enforcement scams, IRS agent scams, turnpike toll scams, hacked computer……. 
Possibly the most common scam of all; theft by family members.

It’s a never ending battle. I feel like we’re chasing our tales. But me, I’m way too smart to fall for any of it. NOT.

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Oh Dear, the Accidental Wedding Downgrade

While attending a recent wedding, something rare happened to me—an event so unique, I'd say it hasn't occurred in at least thirty years.

My main task before the wedding, anticipating significant spending, was to transfer extra funds to my debit card. Understandably, or so I thought, I forgot. My wife, Suzie, disagreed with my assessment, suggesting I was simply a bit "daft." The result of this oversight? I was extremely intentional with my spending throughout the three-day event.

I'll readily admit this wasn't a hardship; it was a wedding with ample free food and a reasonable amount of complimentary drinks. However, this experience prompted me to consider lifestyle creep around life's smaller pleasures. I was surprised by how pleasant the house wines tasted. Was the wine I usually chose really worth twice the price? I genuinely don't think so. And what about that tub of luxury ice cream—does it truly taste that much better? Then there's the big one: artisan roast coffee. Would your taste buds really protest a downgrade?

So, what are your thoughts? Do you have any ideas or tips for the best "downgrades" for life's little pleasures that actually work? Or maybe a downgrade that was a bit of a disaster?

And before you wonder, I didn't have a credit card with me, possibly because I'm a bit daft!

The post Oh Dear, the Accidental Wedding Downgrade appeared first on HumbleDollar.

Oh Dear, The Accidental Wedding Downgrade

While attending a recent wedding, something rare happened to me—an event so unique, I'd say it hasn't occurred in at least thirty years.

My main task before the wedding, anticipating significant spending, was to transfer extra funds to my debit card. Understandably, or so I thought, I forgot. My wife, Suzie, disagreed with my assessment, suggesting I was simply a bit "daft." The result of this oversight? I was extremely intentional with my spending throughout the three-day event.

I'll readily admit this wasn't a hardship; it was a wedding with ample free food and a reasonable amount of complimentary drinks. However, this experience prompted me to consider lifestyle creep around life's smaller pleasures. I was surprised by how pleasant the house wines tasted. Was the wine I usually chose really worth twice the price? I genuinely don't think so. And what about that tub of luxury ice cream—does it truly taste that much better? Then there's the big one: artisan roast coffee. Would your taste buds really protest a downgrade?

So, what are your thoughts? Do you have any ideas or tips for the best "downgrades" for life's little pleasures that actually work? Or maybe a downgrade that was a bit of a disaster?

And before you wonder, I didn't have a credit card with me, possibly because I'm a bit daft!

 

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What’s the best career advice you ever got?

After nearly a four decade career, I sometimes wonder how I survived many early retirement offers and frequent company downsizing initiatives.  One reason may be that I picked up a lot of career advice from colleagues and bosses along the way. I listened to some, but not all. Here are some:
- My first boss on the first day told me, "Be nice to people on the way up. You need their help on the way down."
 -Always ask "why"? Look for ways to improve processes and products to increase profitability and productivity.

-Never stop learning. Be excited about taking on new roles.

- When you are given a job, do the best you can even though you don't like it, You are going to be judged by how well you do in your current job before they promote you to another job you like.
- If opportunity doesn't knock on your door, put in more doors.
- Develop a strong network inside and outside the company.

- Never say "No" to your boss and his immediate boss.
- Be nice to everyone. You never know who is going to be your boss next year.
- Find out who your boss likes and hates. Never praise the one he hates in front of him.

What is the best career advice you ever got? Or the advice you will give to any one working today?
While many HumbleDollar readers are retired or nearing retirement, there are many more who are still working. They will all benefit from your advice.

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Pig Butchering

Sounds awful doesn’t it?

The Article in the WSJ was so painful to read but it led me to the awareness of how to protect myself and those I love.

in the article the problem was the spouse trusted the other spouse who was starting the long road of dementia.  How do you protect your financial well being from something like that?

HumbleDollar readers, how do you protect yourselves?  I need your wisdom.

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Wealth, Perspective, and the Company We Keep

I stole the idea for this essay from our very own Mr Quinn and in particular from a short reply I gave him. Sorry about that Richard.

Have you ever thought about how your view of wealth shifts depending on who's around you? I have, and my experience with two different homes offers a peek into the complex world of social comparison. I've found that contentment isn't about what you have, but the context you see it in.

At my permanent home I'm probably at the top end of the wealth gradient amongst my friends and social circle . Despite this I really don't sense any envy from my friends. Our friendships are deep and built on shared history and respect. Far beyond bank balance envy. Money just isn't the main focus, shared interest and real connection is. As for my neighbours, I don't know them well enough to guess where I stand.

The eye opener is my holiday home. Here, everything flips. I'm probably near the bottom of the wealth gradient. Many have third and fourth homes in different countries and some have large motor yachts to boot. One keeps a home near me so they simply have a base for golf. Their perceived wealth is slightly beyond my imagination. But the simple truth is I genuinely have no envy of their more affluent lives.

This lack of jealousy on my part is perhaps surprising. Especially since I socialise with them regularly. We share BBQs, enjoy golf together and conversation flows easily. The connections aren't about matching financial status, they're about shared experience and having a bit of fun together. I see and hear in their conversations the observed and implicit wealth and think to myself “good for them” without wanting it for myself.

My “two wealth worlds” highlight a key idea: social comparison. We naturally compare ourselves to others, and this hugely impacts how content we feel. My situation shows that simply changing who you compare yourself to completely shifts your view of your own financial situation.

It does highlight that real happiness and social ties aren't just about money. At home, my strong relationships rise above wealth differences. At my holiday home, genuine interests and a relaxed setting create friendship not overshadowed by the large financial disparity between us.

Ultimately, this short essay is about the huge power of perspective. Being content with money isn't always about getting more, but about how you relate to what you have and, critically, how you relate to those around you. Understanding that our view of wealth is all about context can lead to more gratitude and better relationships, no matter where you are on the financial ladder.

 

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