Steve Bull's Blog, page 1300
September 29, 2017
Airport Systems Crashed Worldwide, Could A Power Grid Failure Be Next?
Airport computer systems crashed around the globe today. The crash caused passenger delays, angst, and fright among travelers, but a more ominous question has arisen in light of this glitch. Could the next failure be a worldwide power grid outage?
Thousands of travelers were grounded today when a computer glitch took down check-in systems at more than 100 airports worldwide. The crash left passengers waiting in long lines at counters while trying to check-in for their flights. T Amadeus Alta, the company that provides the software, confirmed it is experiencing a “network issue that is causing disruption,” The Telegraph reported.
The glitch affected even massive airports, such London’s Heathrow International Airport, Charles de Gaulle Airport in Paris, and Ronald Reagan International Airport in Washington, D.C. “Technical teams are working on the problem, services are gradually being restored,” the software company said. After a few hours, officials at Gatwick and Heathrow airports said their systems were “back up and running” after the “momentary IT glitch,” adding there may be a delay due to the outage.
A statement on the glitch read, “A small number of airlines are currently experiencing intermittent issues with their check-in systems at airports around the world — including at Heathrow.” It continued, “Passengers will still be able to check-in for their flight, although the process may take slightly longer than usual.”
Passengers took to social media to complain about the crash.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Cold Frames, How and Why
COLD FRAMES, HOW AND WHY
Before moving to the temperate climate, I’d assumed that winter was pretty much a wash for growing a decent crop. I knew soils were good and summers abundant, all of which led to lots of food storage for getting through winter. I even looked forward to the squashes and pumpkins, and I couldn’t wait for the berries and hard fruits. That all seemed doable, even exciting in a way, but the thought of shutting the garden production down still felt scary.
I always assumed some winter crops were there to be had in a glasshouse. I imagined growing enough greens for salads, but I also knew that a giant glasshouse is a bit too costly for a low-income homesteading couple, even without trying to heat it. Emma and I, as with every hopeful designer, daydreamed of a small attached glasshouse to help with passively heating our house, but there is only so much that can grow in one of those.
Cold frames were something I knew about, and even before investigating them further, they seemed a decent solution to this problem. Now, I ‘m really keen. Not only are they a way of growing a full bevy of crops in the winter (there is a lot to be grown, even in freezing weather), but also they can pretty quickly be pieced together with scrap and salvaged materials. In other words, they are effective and inexpensive, as well as easy to sustainably source.
THE BASIC BUILD
Courtesy of Marc SmithCold frames are so simple in design: Essentially, it’s four sides of a bottomless box with a window on top. They aren’t necessarily restricted by any size specifications, so they can more or less be designed to fit whatever windows or storm doors someone happens to find. The sides can be made from many different materials, including stones, bricks, cob, straw bales, logs, or scrap wood.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Patriotism Is A Two-Edged Sword
I sometimes wonder if America’s greatest threat is the population’s hyper-patriotism. The bulk of the population is now at work shutting down the NFL players’ First Amendment rights, and none of the incensed censors are capable of understanding that it is they, and not the NFL players, who are attacking the U.S. Constitution. We have been through all this flag business before, and federal courts have ruled for the protesters who burnt flags, wore them on their clothes, whatever. Yet, here we go again.
Hardwick Clothes CEO pulls the company’s advertising from NFL games. Insofar as advertising helps Hardwick’s shareholders, CEO Allan Jones is hurting his own shareholders in order to protest the NFL players’ protests, a thought that probably never occurred to him. http://ijr.com/the-declaration/2017/09/984704-first-ceo-hits-nfl-right-wallet-unpatriotic-national-anthem-protests/
According to this report — http://www.dcclothesline.com/2017/09/26/americans-nationwide-burn-nfl-tickets-shirts-in-solidarity-with-trump/ — white people across the country are burning their NFL shirts and their expensive tickets for which they paid hundreds of dollars.
A Louisiana state representative has introduced legislation to ban state subsidies for the New Orleans Saints because of their “disgraceful protests.” It is OK with Rep. Kenny Havard for Louisiana taxpayers to give hundreds of millions of dollars in subsidies to the NFL team as long as the players stand for the anthem, but not if they don’t. It apparently never occurred to Havard to question whether relatively poor Louisiana taxpayers should be giving hundreds of millions of dollars to a billionaire team owner. There is no doubt that the average salary of the Saints exceeds the average salary of Louisiana taxpayers. http://ijr.com/the-declaration/2017/09/984526-louisiana-state-rep-pushes-make-nfl-team-pay-national-anthem-protests-literally/
Former NFL quarterback John Elway declares: “I believe that this is the greatest country in the world,” and his personal belief takes care of the numerous protesters who clearly have a different view. http://ijr.com/the-declaration/2017/09/984449-john-elway-responds-anthem-protests-nfl-players-pay-attention-words/
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Citi: An Oil Supply Squeeze Is Inevitable
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It’s somewhat tradition for oil analysts to produce a flurry of new forecasts after every sharp move in prices, and the latest rally in WTI and Brent is no exception.
In just the last couple of days we’ve seen one analyst predict prices of $80 per barrel, while a panel of several other analysts forecast a price drop if OPEC ends its production cut deal as planned in March 2018.
Now Citi has joined in with a warning: whatever OPEC does, supply will likely get tighter next year.
That’s in stark contrast with the general mood, which is a constant worry that the moment OPEC announces the end of its deal, its members will turn the taps back on and start pumping that oil to levels well above the current quotas. According to Citi’s Ed Morse, the head of the bank’s commodity research, five OPEC members are already pumping at capacity, and a production increase is therefore unlikely.
The members that Morse believes will lead the supply crunch are Iraq, Iran, Nigeria, Venezuela and Libya. All of these, bar Venezuela, have announced plans for a ramp-up of their oil output. All of these, at the same time, face problems in ramping up production, but these problems don’t all come down to insufficient investment, which Morse blames for the pumping-at-capacity scenario.
Venezuela is in disarray and in no condition to expand its oil production. Nigeria and Libya have suffered numerous militant attacks on oil infrastructure, and it’s expected to continue.
Despite these persistent and grave challenges, both Nigeria and Libya have plans to increase production. The Nigerian Petroleum Development Company, for example, recently said it plans to raise its production in the Niger Delta by 320,000 bpd by 2020. Nigeria’s total could grow to 4 million bpd by that year, according to plans announced by oil minister Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
September 28, 2017
“What Are We Going To Do?” Puerto Rico In Chaos As Cash Runs Out
Most Puerto Ricans haven’t had access to electricity, cell service or financial services for nearly two weeks now. And as we reported yesterday, residents who didn’t stockpile enough cash have been struggling after Hurricane Maria essentially knocked the island’s economy into the 1950s, forcing some to forgo essential supplies – or worse – resort to looting. For those who do have access to working ATMs and banks, long lines have sapped cash reserves as the country has effectively reverted to a “cash only” economy.
Those whose access to cash has been limited – or cut off entirely – are becoming desperate as they start to wonder how they will begin the process of rebuilding their trashed homes – or even where their next meal will come from. As Reuters reports, cash has become just one of many scarce resources on the island (food, medical supplies and gas are also in incredibly short supply).
With electricity and internet down in Yauco, southwestern Puerto Rico, Nancy and Caesar Nieve said they could not access paychecks directly deposited into their bank accounts.
“What are we going to do when we don’t have any cash? The little cash we have, we have to save for gas,” said Nancy.
Cash demand spiked in the first few days after the hurricane as merchants were unable to accept other modes of payment. First BanCorp, one of the island’s largest banks, said that nearly two-thirds of its 48 branches remained closed, and that electronic transactions had resumed at only 25% of its ATMs.
Apparently, word of these privations made its way back to the New York Fed, which has assured the world via the Wall Street Journal that the central bank has plenty of physical cash to keep banks on the island stocked for the forseeable future – lowering the likelihood that anybody will suffer for lack of access to cash.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Gold Price Will Explode When System Breaks – Gordon Long
Private investor Gordon Long contends the price of gold will shock the world when it revalues to reflect the massive amount of currency that has been printed globally. Long explains, “That is correct, and it won’t be something that is gradual, it will be very abrupt. The system will break . . . and the financial markets will freeze up. When they come out of the other end of that freeze, and it may be a number of weeks because the next crisis will be global and much more complex than 2008. We could control that with the Federal Reserve . . . and this one you cannot do because you cannot get agreement with all those countries. Never mind understanding the complexity. So, when we come out on the other side . . . there will be a massive revaluation in the U.S. dollar. . . . Gold could jump to $5,000 or $10,000 an ounce or something like that. . . . It will be massive. They will have to put some stability in the monetary system, and the only way they can do it is having something they cannot print. This is what has gotten us into this problem. We have to get back to sound money. It will have to be gold. What percentage of backing will determine what the value the gold will be.”
On the value of the U.S. dollar, Long contends, “Personally, I think the revaluation of the U.S. dollar will be well over 70% devaluation. It doesn’t mean the world is coming to an end. It just means you have to go through this to reset. Those who prepare and understand why this is happening and watch for the signals, there’s going to be fortunes transferred. They are being transferred right now, frankly. One other big caveat on gold prices going way up, expect the government to tax it like you have never seen before.”
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Tens Of Thousands Flee As Active Bali Volcano Set To Erupt
In the latest example of a natural cataclysm displacing tens of thousands of people, and as reported earlier this week, the number of people taking shelter in makeshift evacuation centers on the Indonesian island of Bali has surged to around 104,000, officials said on Thursday, as residents fled the area around a rumbling, active volcano that is expected to erupt momentarily.
Mount Agung, the largest volcano on the island, located some 50 miles from the tourist hub of Kuta, has been shaking since August, and its tremors have increased in both intensity and strength, prompting the Balinese government to evacuate prisoners from local jails and evacuated tourists and residents away from the base of the volcano. The island’s government has declared a state of emergency, according to Reuters.
Thousands more people have been forced to flee in recent day as the government set up an exclusion zone around the volcano’s perimeter.
According to experts who spoke with the Guardian, an eruption is imminent.
Last week Indonesian authorities announced the highest possible alert warning, and besides the evacuations they’ve also set up an exclusion zone that stretches 12km from the crater in some places. Scott Bryan, an associate professor from the Queensland University of Technology, says there have been “very good indications” that an eruption is imminent.
“The fact that the seismic tremors beneath the volcano are increasing in number, intensity, and the reduction in their depth in the last week or so, is a very good indication that magma is moving up to the surface,” he said.
As white smoke started rising from the mountain earlier this week, the Balinese government raised Mount Agung’s alert status to the highest level last week. The last time the mountain erupted, in 1963, a thousand people were killed, hundreds were injured and thousands more villagers had to abandon their homes.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
What Could Go Wrong? For Public Pensions, More Than You Know
Here’s a loaded question for you: “What could go wrong?”
In some contexts, it can express mistaken confidence, as in, “Sure I’ll put my hand between that crocodile’s jaws. What could go wrong?”
Investors should ask the same question before entering a position. “What risks am I taking with this trade? What could go wrong if it doesn’t go as planned?”
But here’s the problem: What if you never think to ask the question because you have no idea you’re in that trade?
And guess what—this is your problem if you are a taxpayer anywhere in the US.
Photo: DWS via
Flickr
Pension Pain
Part of my job is helping John Mauldin with the research for his Thoughts from the Frontline letters. Regular readers know John isn’t a doom-and-gloom guru. He’s optimistic on most of our big challenges.
Except for a few things—like the brewing state and local pension crisis.
The more John and I dig into it, the worse it looks. We have both spent many hours trying to find any good news or a silver lining, without success.
All over the US, states, cities, school districts, and other governmental entities have promised their workers generous retirement benefits, but haven’t set aside enough cash to pay what they will owe. At some point, perhaps soon, either they will have to cut benefits to retirees or stick taxpayers with a huge bill, or both.
You can read John’s September 16 letter, Pension Storm Warning, to learn more. Then you’ll see why he says to Build Your Economic Storm Shelter Now.
What else could go wrong? Plenty.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
North Korea Claims 5 Million New Soldiers Enlisted Ahead Of “Imminent Provocation”
In what is probably a “slightly” exaggerated figure, North Korea claimed on Thursday that some 4.7 million students and workers have volunteered to join or re-enlist in the North Korean army since Kim Jong Un called Donald Trump a “dotard” and vowed to retaliate against the US for President Donald Trump’s threats to “destroy” North Korea. If accurate, that figure would represent nearly 20% of the North’s population (the country is believed to be home to 25 million people, making it about half the size, population-wise as South Korea).
Furthermore, according to the Rodong Sinmun, North Korea’s biggest newspaper among the volunteers were 1.2 million women, which was cited by South Korean news agency Yonhap.
Of course, North Korea has made similar claims in the past when tensions with the US have intensified. Pyongyang usually claims that its young citizens voluntarily enlisted in the military in its propaganda campaigns aimed at bolstering national solidarity – even as recently as last month.
North Korea made a similar assertion last month when it condemned the UN Security Council for adopting US-led resolutions over Pyongyang’s launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles in July.
On Tuesday, the US imposed another round of meaningless new sanctions on North Korea’s banks, after President Donald Trump claimed an important victory by revealing that China had instructed its banks to halt business with North Korea. The president reiterated during a press conference with Spanish leader Mariano Rajoy that the US was “totally prepared” to use a military option against the North, which he said would be “totally devastating.” Earlier this week, National Security Advisor HR McMaster said the US had prepared “four or five different scenarios” for how the crisis with North Korea could be resolved, ominously adding that “some are uglier than others.”
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Trump Is Determined to Go to War
Trump Is Determined to Go to War
On September 18 Presidents Trump and Macron met in New York and said a few words in front of the media. It was a love-fest, with Trump pouring out a honey-stream of compliments and one of his observations was that Emmanuel Macron is “doing a terrific job in France. He’s doing what has to be done. He’s respected by the French people,” which was one of his more dubious statements of recent weeks.
Some 53 per cent of French citizens disapprove of President Macron, which is exactly the same as Trump’s domestic disapproval score, so it can’t be claimed that either of them is “respected” by a majority of their country’s deeply polarised populace.
The depths of Trump ignorance are verging on the unfathomable, but it isn’t that aspect of his psychotic character that is disturbing to the point of danger for the world as a whole. The scary thing about his comments was his ecstatic enthusiasm for blasting trumpets, roaring aircraft, rumbling tanks and all the paraphernalia of martial belligerence. He said he had loved the Bastille Day parade in Paris and “we may do something like that on July 4th in Washington, down Pennsylvania Avenue… We’re going to have to try and top it… we had a lot of planes going over and we had a lot of military might, and it was really a beautiful thing to see…”
When I was a soldier I participated in many parades and still warm to bands and like to see smartly marching troops. The general public in almost every country in the world likes them, too, and there is no reason to propose that such events be curtailed. But. BUT: I have grave doubts about a national leader who is so worked up and excited about them being “a lot of military might and… really a beautiful thing to see.”
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
