Steve Bull's Blog, page 1302
September 27, 2017
Aston Martin CEO: UK Fossil Fuel Ban “Meaningless”
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British performance carmaker Aston Martin’s chief sees his country taking a very unrealistic approach to dealing with air pollution.
The UK government’s July announcement that it will be banning the sale of petrol- and diesel-powered vehicles by 2040 is “meaningless” to Aston Martin CEO Andy Palmer.
Government officials are certainly not automotive engineers and are missing the mark, he said.
“Policy makers should not try to be engineers,” Palmer said. His conclusion was that the July announcement banning fossil fuel vehicles by 2040 was “just spin” and doesn’t stand a chance of being achieved.
China is now becoming one of four countries joining the UK in stopping fossil-fuel powered vehicles on its roads, along with France and Norway. Xin Guobin, the country’s vice minister of industry and information technology, announced in a speech earlier this month that regulators are working on a timeline for phasing out the sales and production of the gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicles.
Other countries central to the global auto market are considering heading toward an eventual phase-out of petroleum-powered cars through government incentives and mandates. It’s a big job – with about 695,000 of 84 million new vehicles sold last year being electric; and with about a billon gasoline and diesel vehicles out on roads across the world now.
These regulators are getting their wires crossed with national mandates, Palmer said.
“In my view as an engineer, it’s better to prescribe the emission, and then let the engineers figure out what the right technology is,” he said.
Palmer thinks the technology is already there with fuel efficient gasoline engine vehicles. He made reference to Formula 1 racers in development that can already double their previous fuel economy.
Hybrid vehicles can confuse the issue.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Radical Appeal for More EU Stupidity
The rise of far-right and far-left parties across Europe is directly related to calls for “more Europe”.
Yet, French president Emmanuel Macron makes a Radical Appeal for a More Powerful EU.
Bold Actions
Macron seeks “bold” actions. He wants an EU “military intervention force”, a common budget, carbon taxes, national conventions to discuss the future of Europe, trade prosecutors to enforce countries to stick with the rules, and a Franco-German cooperation treaty,
Mercy!
I cannot think of a more destabilizing thing than a common military force that will undoubtedly be used to wage wars. Ukraine comes to mind.
Macron proposes taxing US tech companies by value created, rather than profits. Now how the hell is that supposed to work? Who gets to decide “value created”.
Franco-German Cooperation Treaty
Really?! And not include the rest of the EU?
How inclusive!
Ultimate Irony
The ultimate irony in Macron’s “Radical Appeal” is that Brexit, the rise of AfD, Marine Le Pen, and the rise of Beppe Grillo all happened because nannycrats insist on “more Europe” against the direct wishes of a large and growing percentage of the population.
I exit with this Tweet:
Yanis Varoufakis In 2015 Merkel & Gabriel crushed the Greek Spring together, while practising socialism for bankers. Are they surprised now with the results?
6:31 PM – Sep 24, 2017
I do not believe Yanis Varoufakis is referring to Greece per se. Rather, Varoufakis refers to the general policy of migration, more Europe, etc.
Germany does not give a damn about Greece.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
ECB Negative Rate Experiment May Lead to the Worst Financial Crisis in Modern History
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Your proposition that the quantity of money theory is dead seems to be a true earth shattering proposition. It certainly disproves the Austrian School and the events post 2008 support your statement.
The European Central Bank is supposed to traditionally pursue the goal of monetary stability. The Germans have followed the Austrian School of Economics religiously. However, the ECB has used monetary policy instruments attempting to create an annual depreciation of the euro of just under 2 per cent without success. Since the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008, the function and importance of the ECB has changed fundamentally and drastically.
In order to avert a core meltdown of the global financial system, the ECB went beyond the American Federal Reserve and other major central banks, launching an extremely expansive monetary policy lowering the key interest rates to negative territory. This has never been done in history and the ECB experiment has created tremendous problems moving forward. Moving the deposit rate for commercial banks parking money at the central bank to the negative range of minus 0.4 per cent combined with began buying up large amounts of government bonds and later corporate bonds of the worst quality, has completely failed to stimulate the economy.
My question is this. Have the measures taken by the ECB resulted not averting a crisis, but transforming it into a far greater risk and simply extended the entire deflationary process?
Thank you
GK
ANSWER: Absolutely. This entire policy has failed to create inflation and has proven that inflation is not driven purely by the quantity of money. Confidence is the critical factor. The rich can move their capital to foreign lands. However, the average person cannot move their labor or money offshore.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
September 26, 2017
California Mulls Combustion-Engine Car Ban: “You Could Stop All Sales By 2030”
California, the state which single-handedly turned Elon Musk into the billionaire that he is today by forcing taxpayers to subsidize his unprofitable electric vehicle scam via “Zero Emission Vehicle” credits, is now considering a full ban of combustion-engine cars by as early as 2030. The potential ban was discussed by Mary Nichols of the California Air Resources Board, the same folks who decided to regulate cow farts last year, who told Bloomberg that Governor Jerry Brown has expressed interest in a ban.
Governor Jerry Brown has expressed an interest in barring the sale of vehicles powered by internal-combustion engines, Mary Nichols, chairman of the California Air Resources Board, said in an interview Friday at Bloomberg headquarters in New York. Brown, one of the most outspoken elected official in the U.S. about the need for policies to combat climate change, would be replicating similar moves by China, France and the U.K.
“I’ve gotten messages from the governor asking, ‘Why haven’t we done something already?’” Nichols said, referring to China’s planned phase-out of fossil-fuel vehicle sales. “The governor has certainly indicated an interest in why China can do this and not California.”
California has set a goal to cut carbon dioxide emissions by 80 percent from 1990 levels by 2050. Rising emissions from on-road transportation has undercut the state’s efforts to reduce pollution, a San Francisco-based non-profit said last month.
“To reach the ambitious levels of reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, we have to pretty much replace all combustion with some form of renewable energy by 2040 or 2050,” Nichols said. “We’re looking at that as a method of moving this discussion forward.”
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
In Stunning Reversal, DHS Says Russians Were Not Behind Attempted Wisconsin Vote Hacking
Just in time for the weekend, the Associated Press reported on Friday that the Department of Homeland Security had notified 21 states earlier that day that their election systems had been targeted by malicious cyber actors. The states and DHS quickly jumped to the conclusion that Russia had ordered the cyberattacks, even though it was reported that the identity or identities of the perpetrators were inconclusive Yet, the news spread like wildfire after readers had been primed as reports of possible infiltartion of state election systems had circulated for nearly a year. Even so, for many states, the call Friday from the Department of Homeland Security was the first official confirmation that their election systems had, in fact, been targeted by hackers.
Federal officials said that in most of the 21 states, the targeting was preparatory activity such as scanning computer systems.
But in a stunning reversal – one which we doubt will put endless rumors of Russian cyberinterference to bed – the AP now reports that DHS has told Wisconsin that the Russian government was not involved in the cyber-targeting.
In an email to the state’s deputy elections administrator that was provided to reporters at the Wisconsin Elections Commission meeting on Tuesday, Homeland Security said that initial notice of Russian involvement was made in error. Also, as we noted at the time, the government did not originally assign blame to the Russians when news of the alleged “scanning” initially broke on Friday although most medias jumped at the opportunity to blame Putin.
Infuriated by the error, some state officials said that DHS should provide an expalanation for the errror, or at least issue an apology to state elections officials, who were understandbly unnerved by the news of Russian involvement.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
How an economic theory helped mire the United States in Vietnam
Rostow, front right, visited Vietnam in 1961.AP Photo/Fred Waters
Questions of how the U.S. got mired in the Vietnam War and whether it was ultimately winnable have fascinated historians for half a century – most recently in Ken Burns’ new 18-hour documentary.
A little-remembered aspect of the debacle is the important role played by a prominent economic historian named Walt Whitman Rostow, whose theories on economic development helped persuade Americans – and two presidents – that the fight in Vietnam was right and that we must prevail.
The Burns documentary, from what I have seen, does not dwell much on economics, my area of expertise. But this was an important part of why Americans were there.
Rostow’s rise
Rostow, left, looks over a map with Gen. Maxwell D. Taylor in 1961 ahead of their trip to Vietnam to observe and evaluate the political and military situation there and report back to President Kennedy. From his earliest days at the White House, Rostow urged more involvement in the Vietnam. AP Photo/Bill AllenRostow came to prominence in the 1960s after his theories on economic development caught the eye of the Democratic Party and John F. Kennedy, who was campaigning for president.In 1960, Rostow, then a professor at MIT, published an influential book called “The Stages of Economic Growth: A Non-Communist Manifesto.” The book describes how an economy transitions through five distinct stages of development, from basic (little use of technology, like much of central Africa and South Asia in the mid 20th century) to advanced (characterized by high levels of mass consumption, such as the U.S. or France).
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Evacuations Underway In California As Fire Rages Along The Highway
Corona, California is experiencing burning hillsides near a freeway as the Canyon fire rages on. So far, the fire has forced people to quickly evacuate their homes.
The fire has destroyed more than 1,700 acres of land near Chino Hills State Park, California, with emergency crews urging people to evacuate all homes and schools in the area. The canyon fire began close to Freeway 91 just after 1 pm on Monday and has now spread to over 2,000 acres, according to the Orange County Fire Authority.
Follow
luis sinco @luissinco
#CanyonFire still burning #hot in #Corona. Charred area now up to 2,000 acres. Lots of #firefighters on the scene battling #blazeat #night.
1:10 AM – Sep 26, 2017
The blaze, which is only 5 percent contained, according to the fire service’s latest updates, has necessitated the use of aircraft and more than 300 firefighters. Four schools have been closed due to the threat from the flames, with Corona City authorities urging people to leave their homes south of Green River Road to the Trudy Way area.
An evacuation shelter has been opened at the Corona High School gymnasium.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Energy and Authoritarianism
Could declining world energy result in a turn toward authoritarianism by governments around the world? As we will see, there is no simple answer that applies to all countries. However, pursuing the question leads us on an illuminating journey through the labyrinth of relations between energy, economics, and politics.
The International Energy Agency and the Energy Information Administration (part of the U.S. Department of Energy) anticipate an increase in world energy supplies lasting at least until the end of this century. However, these agencies essentially just match supply forecasts to anticipated demand, which they extrapolate from past economic growth and energy usage trends. Independent analysts have been questioning this approach for years, and warn that a decline in world energy supplies—mostly resulting from depletion of fossil fuels—may be fairly imminent, possibly set to commence within the next decade.
Even before the onset of decline in gross world energy production we are probably already beginning to see a fall in per capita energy, and also net energy—energy that is actually useful to society, after subtracting the energy that is used in energy-producing activities (the building of solar panels, the drilling of oil wells, and so on). The ratio of energy returned on energy invested (EROEI) for fossil energy production has tended to fall as high-quality deposits of oil, coal, and natural gas are depleted, and as society relies more on unconventional oil and gas that require more energy for extraction, and on coal that is more deeply buried or that is of lower energy content. Further, renewable energy sources, especially if paired with needed energy storage technologies, tend to have a lower (some say much lower) EROEI than fossil fuels offered during the glory days of world economic growth after World War II. And renewables require energy up front for their manufacture, producing a net energy benefit only later on.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
North Korea Boosts Coastal Defenses Following “Declaration Of War” Speech
North Korea appears to be following through with its threat to shoot down US fighter jets and bombers that travel near its airspace, as US jets and bombers did on Saturday, according to a Yonhap report – the latest sign that North Korea intends to follow through with threats made by Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho during a speech outside the UN on Monday.
During the speech, Ri claimed that Trump’s recent tweet that DPRK’s leadership would “not be around much longer” amounted to “a declaration of war” and added that North Korea has “every right to take countermeasures against the US, including to shoot down American jets outside the DPRK’s airspace” as part of its right to self-defense under the United Nations charter.
“The UN Charter acknowledges member states’ right of self-defense,” Ri said outside a hotel near the UN headquarters on Monday. “As the United States has declared a war, even though its strategic bombers don’t cross our border, we will come to own all rights to respond for self-defense including shooting down its planes at any time.”
Less than a day later, North Korea has reportedly boosted its east coast defenses, moving aircraft and fortifying their positions, according to Lee Cheol-woo, the chief of the South Korea National Assembly’s intelligence committee.
As a reminder, on Monday Ri said that the North’s right to countermeasures included shooting down U.S. bombers “even when they are not inside the airspace border of our country”.
“The whole world should clearly remember it was the U.S. who first declared war on our country,” he told reporters in New York on Monday, where he had been attending the annual United Nations General Assembly. “The question of who won’t be around much longer will be answered then,” he said.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Puerto Rico: A Potential Experiment in Degrowth?
I’m sure that some will criticize the insensitivity of the timing of this essay. How can you talk about Puerto Rico, climate change, and degrowth at this tragic time? But what time is better than now? There are only going to be more disasters and more tragic times ahead. And if after each one we spend billions on rebuilding costly infrastructure, the resulting carbon emissions are going to contribute to disasters elsewhere in the future. So when better than now to raise this—before billions of dollars are spent rebuilding Puerto Rico (and Houston and Florida too) in the same unsustainable, unresilient way that consumer economies have pursued thus far?
Perhaps the island’s debt crisis combined with this hurricane offers the perfect opportunity for Puerto Rico to develop in a different direction. Perhaps Maria can serve as the start of Puerto Rico’s “special period” where a simpler, more equitable, more sustainable pathway—and yes, poorer in consumer terms—is chosen.
In other words, could this disaster serve as the trigger of an intentional redirection of the island’s development? Could Puerto Rico degrow, and in the process bring about a more sustainable society?
The Benefits of Degrowth
First of all: why should Puerto Rico degrow?
The social and ecological costs of our fossil-fueled consumer culture are apparent—in disease burdens, in obesity rates, in CO2 emissions, and in other ecological costs. Choosing to move away from the consumer economic model could reduce obesity and connected disease burdens, reduce ecological impacts, reduce the stresses of modern day busy-ness, and help rebuild community as people once again work together in community and create webs of interdependence.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
