Sorry, you must be a member of this group to do that.
Steve Bull's Blog, page 1163
March 14, 2018
Deep State Could Pull Plug on Markets – David Morgan
Precious metals expert David Morgan says the prolonged sideways price of silver is what bottoms look like in the precious metals market. Morgan explains, “This market has not moved for a very long time . . . Silver bottomed in December of 2015, and, yes, we have gone up and down and up and down, but the overall lows have been higher lows, which is the definition of an uptrend. Silver and gold have started a subtle uptrend from the bottom in 2015, but it certainly has been slow and tedious and back and forth. I coined a phase, ‘silver will either scare you out or wear you out.’ We are in the wear-you-out phase. A lot of people who were believers at one time have become non-believers. The markets have worn them out, and they have moved on to something else.”In the bond market, Morgan fears low interest rates spell danger. Morgan says, “The most important commodity in the world is oil, but the most important financial asset is the U.S. Treasury market . . . this is key, and what is so unbelievable if you think about it, the one asset class that is supposed to be the safest is the U.S. Treasury market, and it’s the least safest. Something that is supposed to be unsafe like silver and gold are the safest. The Treasury market does not have several thousand years of history of being money. All fiat currencies have failed in the long run. . . . The dollar has lost 98% of its buying power since 1913, and the Fed is supposed to have a stable currency policy. Well, they have failed miserably.”
On the success of President Trump and the ongoing war with the so-called “Deep State,” Morgan contends, “If the “Deep State” gets pushed into a corner much further, they can basically pull the plug. That means the stock market could come tumbling down, and then they could blame the Trump Administration. . . . If you are losing the chess game, you just get up and turn the table over and the pieces go flying everywhere. That is a metaphor for a war. That’s a metaphor for crashing the stock market. That’s a metaphor for crashing the bond market, and it’s a metaphor for it happening on its own. I am concerned that if you win, you lose. This is why the unraveling is being done extremely carefully. . . . I am not saying it is going to happen. I am saying it could happen. These people are so used to winning a rigged game, if they start being caught, and they have been caught, then they are going to do things that are not necessarily predictable. They are not going to act in a rational manner. They are going to do anything possible to protect themselves. You cannot rule out the possibility that they will turn the table over and that’s it.”
This, along with many other reasons, is why Morgan says, “You have to have physical gold and silver in your portfolio to be truly diversified and protected.”
This Isn’t Your Grandfather’s (1960s) Inflation Scare
“This reminds me of the late 1960s when we experimented with low rates and fiscal stimulus to keep the economy at full employment and fund the Vietnam War. Today we don’t have a recession, let alone a war. We are setting the stage for accelerating inflation, just as we did in the late ‘60s.”
—Paul Tudor Jones
As soon as the GOP followed its long-promised tax cuts with damn-the-deficit spending increases (who cares about the kids, right?), you knew to be ready for the Lyndon B. Johnson reminders.
And it’s worth remembering that LBJ pushed federal spending higher, pushed his central bank chairman against the wall (figuratively and, by several accounts, also literally) and eventually pushed inflation to post–Korean War highs.
Inflation kept climbing into Richard Nixon’s presidency, pausing for breath only during a brief 1970 recession (although without falling as Keynesian economists predicted) and then again during an attempt at wage and price controls that ended badly. Nixon’s controls disrupted commerce, angered businesses and consumers, and helped clear a path for the spiraling inflation of the mid- and late-1970s.
So naturally, when Donald Trump and the Republicans pulled off the biggest stimulus years into an expansion since LBJ’s guns, butter and batter the Fed chief, it should make us think twice about inflation risks—I’m not saying we shouldn’t do that.
But do the 1960s really tell us much about the inflation outlook today, or should that outlook reflect a different world, different economy and different conclusions?
I would say it’s more the latter, and I’ll give five reasons why.
1—Technology
I’ll make my first reason brief, because the deflationary effects of technology are both transparent and widely discussed, even if model-wielding economists often ignore them. When some of your country’s largest and most impactful companies are set up to help consumers pay lower prices, that should help to, well, contain prices.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Checking In on the Four Intersecting Cycles
If you think this is a robust, resilient, stable system, please check your Ibogaine / Hopium / Delusionol intake.
Correspondent James D. recently asked for an update on the four intersecting cycles I’ve been writing about for the past 10 years. Here’s the chart I prepared back in 2008 of four long-term cycles:
1. Generational (political/social)
2. Price inflation/wage stagnation (economic)
3. Credit/debt expansion/contraction (financial)
4. Relative affordability of energy (resources)
Here are four of the many dozens of essays I’ve written on these topics over the past decade:
Long Cycles: Cheaper Goods, Costlier Capital, Income Disparity Increases (August 1, 2008)
Beyond the False Dawn: Global Crisis 2020-2022 (February 18, 2011)
A Disintegrative Winter: The Debt and Anti-Status Quo Super-Cycle Has Turned(December 5, 2016)
We’re in a Boiling-Point Crisis of Exploitive Elites (June 19, 2017)
The key point that’s not communicated in the chart is there are dynamics that interact with each of these cycles. For example, demographics are influencing each of these trends in self-reinforcing ways.
Governments are borrowing more to fund the promises made to seniors decades ago when there were relatively few retirees compared to the working populace. Now that the ratio of those collecting government benefits to workers is 1-to-2 (one retiree for every worker), the system is buckling.
The “solution” is to borrow increasing sums from future taxpayers to fund pay-as-you-go healthcare and pension programs for retirees.
Technology is another dynamic that is actively influencing all these cycles in self-reinforcing ways. As technology is substituted for human labor, wages stagnate and the size of the populace paying taxes dwindles accordingly. The “solution” is once again to borrow more to substitute for declining purchasing power.
The dynamics driving wealth/income inequality and the rise of politically/financially dominant elites are also powering these cycles. As Peter Turchin has explained–a topic covered in my essay When Did Our Elites Become Self-Serving Parasites? (October 4, 2016)– social disunity / discord rises when the number of people promised a spot in the elite far exceeds the actual number of slots available.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
You Hate the State, But Do You Hate Politics? How Self Deception and Coalitions Affect Society
You Hate the State, But Do You Hate Politics? How Self Deception and Coalitions Affect Society
Our ancestors weren’t nice people. They kept slaves, looked forward to wars and sent people to concentration camps. It is easy to dismiss them as moral retards, but that would be setting the bar way too low. Slavery is bad, war is violence, and sending people to concentration camps isn’t very nice. Blacks, Jews, and foreigners are not ambiguous classes of people, and violence is unambiguously wrong.
It takes no particular sophistication to see how cruel our ancestors were. But it takesremarkable insight to see such cruelty hidden in plain sight today.
Libertarians are fairly good at seeing cruelty others miss. We see taxation as theft, war as murder and citizenship as slavery. We aren’t naïve enough to think everything will be fine if we have a good president at the helm.
But we make a huge, comparable mistake. We assume the market is a great restraining force against fraud and deception. Now it is true that certain forms of deception are checked by the market. But this is not true of many other forms of deception. There is a real sense in which the market values the ability to deceive. Libertarians are blind to this, at their own peril.
Politics in Business
When I dropped out of college and started working, I couldn’t help seeing that deception is the norm, even in private organizations. There was so much that could have beendone so much better, but wasn’t being done because of political reasons. In my experience, organizations reward prudent predation. What is going on?
Economist Robin Hanson answers such puzzles more satisfactorily than anybody else.In any large organization, there are coalitions which compete for limited resources. Coalition politics is vicious, and a major reason why firms are inefficient.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Britain To Expel Russian Diplomats, Calls UN Session After Deadline Expires Without Moscow Response
The UK was braced for a showdown with Russia on Wednesday after a midnight deadline set by Prime Minister Theresa May expired without an explanation from Moscow about how a Soviet-era nerve toxin was used to strike down a former Russian double agent.
Russia, which denied any involvement in the poisoning of Sergei Skripal and his daughter with Novichok, a nerve agent developed by the Soviet military, said it was not responding to May’s ultimatum until it received samples of the nerve agent, in effect challenging Britain to show what sanctions it would impose against Russian interests.
“Moscow had nothing to do with what happened in Britain. It will not accept any totally unfounded accusations directed against it and will also not accept the language of ultimatums,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Wednesday according to Reuters. He added, however, that Russia remained open to cooperating with Britain in investigating the poisoning, blaming the British authorities for refusing to share information.
Russia’s Interfax news agency reported the Russian embassy in London planned to ask for consular access to Yulia Skripal, Sergei’s daughter.
Britain’s response to the expiry of the deadline and lack of explanation from Moscow was expected to be announced by May in parliament later, after May convened a meeting of the National Security Council at her Downing Street office in the morning. Furthermore, Bloomberg reported that the U.K. has called for an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council to update Council members on the investigation into the nerve agent attack in Salisbury, the U.K. Foreign Office said in a tweet.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
3 Places Preppers Would Never Think to Scrounge For Survival Supplies
This is a segment that you can take for ideas and build off of for yourself. Survival is all about improvisation, and adaptability: those who adapt to the situation have a better chance at making it through the tough times. This is a different kind of segment, though. The information here is how to make it on what you can scrounge in the wintertime. Sounds simple, right? It isn’t.
We Live in an Imperfect World That is Not Prepper-Friendly
The reason is the “perfect” world we live in does not present you with many opportunities to train. For that matter, there isn’t a lot of encouragement either. Certainly, no one will encourage you: not your family members, your neighbors, or community in general, let alone the government…local, state, or federal. That’s not “life.”
No, most of these guys just mentioned are only concerned with you playing to the system by getting up in the morning, going off to your work (to earn taxable income) so that you can pay your taxes, consuming foods, materials, and other necessities (with taxes), driving (using fuel that’s taxed) home…the one with your mortgage and property taxes, that have, well…a nice, “established” way for you to keep your lawn, grounds…you know…how to live, right? In an acceptable manner, right? A small cog in a giant machine, working and consuming until it’s time to call your number in. Then your money and property… what you have left, that you paid taxes on all the way? Time to tax it again until the government (kicking and screaming) magnanimously gives what’s left to your heirs.
The Only One Who Will Help You Succeed and Excel is You
As a general reminder, you never know when the next emergency will happen, so make sure you have the basic necessities to get through the most unpredictable situation.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
The Public Fears An Eruption At Yellowstone: ‘Spate Of Tremors’ Reported
Laying underneath the tranquil and beautiful geysers, waterfalls, and mountains of Wyoming lies the Yellowstone caldera. The supervolcano has been worrying some for decades, but now experts fear an eruption could happen soon after reporting a “spate of tremors.”
According to WMD, a spate of four mini-tremors in the area following a period of “rest” has raised fears among some that the supervolcano is about to blow. Although the Yellowstone supervolcano hasn’t erupted for 631,000 years, scientists have been diligently working to understand the last eruption so they can more accurately predict when a big one will happen again.
The most recent quake came on March 11 when a small 1.5 tremor took place beneath the surface. The strongest one, a 1.8 magnitude earthquake, came just hours before this, and people are concerned that Yellowstone could be about to blow.
The growing concern among the public is evident, but many scientists still say the activity at the supervolcano is perfectly normal. Tom Skilling, a meteorologist for WGN News, a local news site in Chicago, explains that is it normal for the volcano to have less active weeks. “Minor earthquakes occur in the Yellowstone area 50 or more times per week, but a major eruption is not expected in the foreseeable future.”
Yellowstone is one of the most seismically active areas in the world and there are regular earthquakes detected in and around the supervolcano. This latest spate of tremors follows a period in February where more than 200 small tremors detected were detected over a period of 10 days. According to experts with the US Geological Survey, that swarm began on February 8 in a region roughly eight miles northeast of West Yellowstone, Montana and increased dramatically in the days following.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
“Asteroids, WWIII, Or North Korea” – South Dakotans Transform Military Bunkers Into Survivalist Homes
The motto “always be prepared” is wise advice, but, as RT reports, one man is taking the mantra to the max. He’s got former military bunkers spanning a space that is three-quarters the size of Manhattan, and is selling them to survivalists.
Survivalists and so-called “preppers” are often the brunt of jokes, with insults ranging from “paranoid” to “weird” and everything in between. But Robert Vicino couldn’t disagree more. He runs a company which is currently focused on transforming military bunkers into doomsday shelters.
The shelters are in Middle of Nowhere, USA, otherwise known as Edgemont, South Dakota. It’s barely on the map, but it’s about to host the “largest survival community on the planet.” That’s big news for a town with a population of just 774 people.
Describing the bunker community as “large” is perhaps an understatement. “…This base is 18 square miles (47 square kilometers), about three quarters the size of Manhattan,” Vicino told RT’s Ruptly agency. He says the community has 575 bunkers and will be able to hold between 6,000 and 10,000 residents.
If the idea has you imagining some kind of “tiny home” situation, think again. “This place is huge,” Vicino said while giving Ruptly a tour of a 2,200 square foot bunker. It’s “bigger than most houses in the world.” That’s likely a good thing, if you’re planning on having to spend the rest of your days inside an underground bunker with your crazy Aunt Martha.
Vicino says it would be nuts not to prepare for the worst, as each bunker will cost buyers just $25,000.
“To not have this and to have a back-up plan for mankind, to have an insurance policy, is crazy. The cost we are able to do this… it’s nothing. It’s crazy not to, it’s nothing more than life assurance.”
He also had a rebuttal for anyone who thinks those backing the project are crazy. He said those buying such structures “are people that are aware. They are not paranoid, they are highly intelligent, they read a lot.”
When it comes to possible reasons someone might need to flee to their underground bunker, Vicino’s answers ranged from natural disaster to a nuclear attack by Kim Jong-un. Basically, just about anything that could be scary for Earthlings.
“The whole world is concerned… some are concerned about North Korea, others are concerned about an economic collapse, others are concerned about World War III… there’s threats from the sun, a coronal mass ejection, there’s threats of asteroids hitting the earth and there`s near misses every week now…”
But there’s a catch if you decide you want to spend the rest of your days in one of Vicino’s bunkers. The nearest town is 30 minutes away and there’s no mobile connectivity. Of course, if the world is coming to an end, that’s probably the least of anyone’s concerns.
Vicino’s company also offers luxury survivalist dwellings in the German town of Rothenstein. Those bunkers cost more than $25,000, however, as the complex boasts swimming pools, theaters, gyms, restaurants, and a helicopter service.
The UK government is manufacturing its nerve agent case for ‘action’ on Russia
Official claim that ‘Novichok’ points solely to Russia discredited
Military personnel investigate the Novichok poisoning in Salisbury
Published by INSURGE intelligence , a crowdfunded investigative journalism platform for people and planet. Support us to report where others fear to tread.
On Monday, Prime Minister Theresa May announced that former Russian spy, Sergey Skripal and his daughter Yulia, were poisoned with “a military-grade nerve agent of a type developed by Russia” known as ‘Novichok’.
The chemical agent was identified by the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory at Porton Down. May referred to the British government’s “knowledge that Russia has previously produced this agent and would still be capable of doing so” as a basis to conclude that Russia’s culpability in the attack “is highly likely.”
On these grounds, she claimed that only two scenarios are possible:
“Either this was a direct act by the Russian State against our country. Or the Russian government lost control of this potentially catastrophically damaging nerve agent and allowed it to get into the hands of others.”
The British government’s line has been chorused uncritically by the entire global press corps, with little scrutiny of its plausibility.
But there is a problem: far from offering a clear-cut evidence-trail to Vladimir Putin’s chemical warfare labs, the use of Novichok in the nerve gas attack on UK soil points to a wider set of potential suspects, of which Russia is in fact the least likely.
Russia did actually destroy its nerve agent capabilities according to the OPCW
Yet a concerted effort is being made to turn facts on their head.
No clearer sign of this can be found than in the statement by Ambassador Peter Wilson, UK Permanent Representative to the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), in which he claimed that Russia has “failed for many years” to fully disclose its chemical weapons programme.
Wilson was parroting a claim made a year earlier by the US State Departmentthat Russia had not made a complete declaration of its chemical weapons stockpile: “The United States cannot certify that Russia has met its obligations under the Convention.”
Yet these claims are contradicted by the OPCW itself, which in September 2017 declared that the independent global agency had rigorously verified the completed destruction of Russia’s entire chemical weapons programme, including of course its nerve agent production capabilities.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
UK Gas Crisis: Out Of The Frying Pan Into The Fire
For the ministers and officials assembled, it was an embarrassment all around.
Late last week, as we were at the annual Windsor Energy Consultation (WEC) just outside London, British Gas Plc confirmed that the nation was facing a natural gas shortage as freezing temperatures grip the country.
You see, blizzards, strong winds, drifting snow, and bitter cold recently brought Britain to a standstill as the weather system nicknamed the “Beast from the East” combined with winter storm “Emma” to create some of the most testing weather the U.K. has had to face in years.
Now, I can attest first hand that this cold snap was not something to take lightly.
As a regular attendee of the Windsor Energy Consultation over the past decade, a visit that includes spending three days each year at the royal residence, I know that Windsor Castle can be drafty in any weather.
But this time around, it was positively frigid.
“Frosty” Windsor Castle grounds (St. George’s Chapel on the left), March 2, 2018; photo: Bill Arnold
And nationwide, this “big freeze” has brought to light a very serious problem.
And it’s one that is only getting worse…
Bitter Cold Adds (Further) Fuel to the Flames
The unfolding gas crisis has brought about a renewed immediacy to a major political issue that has been percolating in the U.K. for some time now.
You see, for the third year in a row, a portion of my two briefings (one to the plenary meeting; one to the ambassadors), was devoted to the growing global need for a new “energy balance.”
Simply put, that balance involves two related advances.
The first is an expansion in the number of reliable (and distinct) energy sources. The second addresses the extent to which these sources provide a genuine interchangeable network of availability from such sources.
The rise of renewable sources (solar, wind, biofuel, even geothermal) has been the most visible manifestation of the developing balance. But the crucial element to remember is the balance nature of it all.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
