Erick Erickson's Blog, page 74

The Second Coming of Newt Gingrich #EERS

Tonight on WSB, I'm live from Charleston, SC. I'll be going through the play by play of last night's CNN Southern Republican Debate. You can listen live at http://wsbradio.com.

I'll be taking a lot of phone calls too tonight. The number is 1-800-WSB-TALK.

Consider this an open thread.

Morning Briefing for January 20, 2012

RedState Morning Briefing

For January 20, 2012

Go to www.RedStateMB.com to get
the Morning Briefing every morning at no charge.

1. Perry Drops Out. Endorses Newt. Will Campaign and Serve.

2. Rick Santorum Won Iowa

3. Devolve Transportation Spending to States

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1. Perry Drops Out. Endorses Newt. Will Campaign and Serve.

Sources close to both campaigns tell me that the Governor and Speaker have spoken and Governor Perry will endorse Newt Gingrich. But it will go beyond that.

I'm told reliably that Governor Perry will head up a 10th Amendment project for Speaker Gingrich to rally Governors and state legislators toward a plan of devolving power from Washington. This project will include helping shape the Republican platform for the general election, something small government conservatives have been concerned about.

Governor Perry will also campaign for Speaker Gingrich in Texas.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

2. Rick Santorum Won Iowa

By 34 votes, Rick Santorum won Iowa. For the past two weeks we have heard Mitt Romney was the first non-incumbent to win both Iowa and New Hampshire. Wrong!

The Des Moines Register reports Rick Santorum won. More troubling for the Iowa GOP, the GOP reports it will never have a completely accurate vote count because the votes in some precincts have gone missing.

The only thing that can be said for sure is Rick Santorum is the real winner.

If Newt Gingrich now wins South Carolina, we are in for a heck of a ride.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

3. Devolve Transportation Spending to States

One of the numerous legislative deadlines that Congress will be forced to confront this session is the expiration of the 8th short-term extension of the 2005 surface transportation authorization law (SAFETEA-LU). With federal transportation spending growing beyond its revenue source, an imbalance between donor and recipient states, inefficient and superfluous construction projects popping up all over the country, and burdensome mass transit mandates on states, it is time to inject some federalism into transportation spending.

Throughout the presidential campaign, many of the candidates have expressed broad views of state's rights, while decrying the expansion of the federal government. In doing so, some of the candidates have expressed the conviction that states have the right to implement tyranny or pick winners and losers, as long as the federal government stays out of it. Romneycare and state subsidies for green energy are good examples. The reality is that states don't have rights; they certainly don't have the power to impose tyranny on citizens by forcing them to buy health insurance or regulating the water in their toilet bowels – to name a few. They do, however, reserve powers under our federalist system of governance to implement legitimate functions of government. A quintessential example of such a legitimate power is control over transportation and infrastructure spending.

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The CNN South Carolina Debate

CNN's South Carolina Debate

The Horserace for January 19, 2012

It changed so suddenly. Huntsman out Monday. Today, Rick Perry is out.

Huntsman, barely a factor in South Carolina, threw his support to Mitt Romney. Rick Perry, more of a factor, threw his support to Gingrich. The Monday debate in South Carolina is a critical detail. Polling before it showed a Romney lead. Polling after it showed a Gingrich surge.

Then Sarah Palin endorsed Newt Gingrich.

Then news broke that Rick Santorum, not Mitt Romney, really won Iowa.

Then Rick Perry dropped out and endorsed Newt Gingrich.

Tonight, at 8pm ET, there is a CNN debate.

Then Saturday, the voters vote.

And behind scenes there is a quiet operation — an operation designed to get Ron Paul the nomination in a fractured field. All the week's events play right into Dr. Paul's plan that few even see coming.

We'll get into it all in the Horserace.

Newt Gingrich

Gingrich heads into Saturday riding a huge wave of momentum. The Second Mrs. Gingrich could potentially spoil it with her interview on the warpath, but the Gingrich daughters responded quickly and could lessen the blow.

In fact, while her side of the story is seedy and hostile, it is an open question if Americans will have any sympathy for a woman who herself destroyed Gingrich's first marriage. She's no puritan here and Gingrich's children seem willing to fully defend him.

Gingrich also has Sarah Palin and Rick Perry. So tonight all eyes will be on him as he comes under a withering attack from Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul. He is tonight's real frontrunner in South Carolina.

Ron Paul

A prominent friend told me some weeks ago that he noticed an odd thing. In his state, several people who have been successful in getting themselves known as very probably Mitt Romney delegates for the Republican National Convention are also his supporters. And they are not just my friends' supporters, they are also long time staunch Ron Paul supporters.

Why then would they, long time staunch Ron Paul supporters, align this year with Mitt Romney? He made calls and talked to friends in other states. All of them saw the same thing happening — long time Dr. Paul supporters working to become delegates to the convention pledging to support Mitt Romney and others.

If the field stays fractured at this level, with only a few people, but each getting delegates enough to prevent the front runner from an outright majority, there will be a second vote at the Republican National Convention.

Delegates are only locked in for their candidate during the first vote. After the first vote, they can vote for whoever they want. So if Mitt Romney is unable to clear an outright majority on the first ballot, suddenly he could see some of his delegates turn on him — turn and go back to Ron Paul.

It is an ingenious strategy premised on a convention where no one gets majority support early. It plays well to a primary calendar where the delegates are first awarded proportionally. Who knows if it is a campaign strategy or just his volunteers, but the Paul campaign has been active now for four years trying to take over local parties.

It may pay off if the GOP doesn't unite around a candidate soon.

Mitt Romney

It remains Mitt Romney's race to lose. Romney is nationally still the front runner. He remains the pick of the establishment and the Washington GOP crowd. He has the money and the ballot access the others don't.

But the GOP will go vote for Romney holding their nose. They may start settling, but they do not like him. And now we know that not only did he get less votes in 2012 in Iowa than he did in 2008, he also lost yet another election.

Each day this race drags on the veneer of electability wears off and he has to start answering questions that involve phrases like "Cayman Islands" and "Swiss bank account." No more man of the people.

Rick Santorum

He should be the next to drop out. The rallying of evangelicals in Texas did him no good. Gingrich leads him among evangelicals 2 to 1 and is trouncing him in South Carolina. He may have won Iowa, but his remaining in the race, like Perry before him, now helps Mitt Romney.

Look for Mitt Romney to start throwing bones to Santorum in the debate and on the campaign trail.

Perry Drops Out. Endorses Newt. Will Campaign and Serve.

I was on a flight and landed to over 100 voicemails and over 1000 emails. Rick Perry is dropping out of the race.

Sources close to both campaigns tell me that the Governor and Speaker have spoken and Governor Perry will endorse Newt Gingrich. But it will go beyond that.

I'm told reliably that Governor Perry will head up a 10th Amendment project for Speaker Gingrich to rally Governors and state legislators toward a plan of devolving power from Washington. This project will include helping shape the Republican platform for the general election, something small government conservatives have been concerned about.

Governor Perry will also campaign for Speaker Gingrich in Texas. Texas has more than enough delegates at 155 (and they are winner take all they are proportional) to offset Newt Gingrich not being on the Virginia ballot, which only has 49 delegates.

Looks like we have a race now.

This is Going to Leave a Mark

Ouch.

BREAKING NEWS: Rick Santorum Won Iowa

By 34 votes, Rick Santorum won Iowa. For the past two weeks we have heard Mitt Romney was the first non-incumbent to win both Iowa and New Hampshire. Wrong!

The Des Moines Register reports Rick Santorum won. More troubling for the Iowa GOP, the GOP reports it will never have a completely accurate vote count because the votes in some precincts have gone missing.

The only thing that can be said for sure is Rick Santorum is the real winner.

If Newt Gingrich now wins South Carolina, we are in for a heck of a ride.

Hero or Spoiler: Rick Perry Will Quit. The Question is as What.

Yesterday, I argued that Rick Perry should leave the GOP primary in advance of Saturday's election and endorse Newt Gingrich, who is the most logical fit in the existing field for a Perry endorsement.

The Perry campaign responded that the race would be decided by voters, not pundits behind a computer.

Fair enough. Rick Perry does not want to be seen as a quitter. But quit he will. I do not want him to quit. I urged him to stay in the race. But sadly his campaign has been unable to get the second look I thought it deserved. Now, at this point, he and I both know he is going to quit the race. The only question is whether he quits now and saves us from Romney or quits Sunday and ensures us Romney.

It may suck, but it is reality. And we are forced at times like this to deal with reality. The reality is that Rick Perry will be quitting the race, but he is not quitting the fight, which has always been more important. We started campaign season with candidates asking what Washington can do for America. Through his singlehanded, tireless, and unfailing efforts, Rick Perry has managed to steer the conversation to what Washington cannot do for America and what Americans can do themselves if Washington just gets the hell out of the way.

Without Rick Perry in the race, that would never have happened. But sadly, at this point, with Rick Perry in the race the people most likely to campaign and govern with Perry's conviction to make Washington as inconsequential in our lives as possible have no chance. For Rick Perry's vision of America to win — something we should all want — Rick Perry must depart the race now.

It's not like I relish taking this position. I introduced Rick Perry at the 2011 RedState Gathering as the next President of the United States. He remains the best qualified man to be President. I would be thrilled to have him as my President. But he is polling in last place and there are three days to go. It isn't going to happen.

But throwing his support to one of the other non-Romney candidates could help that person win.

Rick Perry will quit. He knows it. I know it. You know it. The question is whether he will quit before Saturday's primary and help someone else win as a hero and king maker, or will he quit next week and see Mitt Romney win with Perry serving as the spoiler, keeping either Gingrich or Santorum from winning.

Morning Briefing for January 19, 2012

RedState Morning Briefing

For January 19, 2012

Go to www.RedStateMB.com to get
the Morning Briefing every morning at no charge.

Tonight at RedState, I'll be on CNN with their coverage of the South Carolina Debate and at RedState we'll be doing a live chat we invite you to participate in.

The live chat will start at 7pm ET and the debate will start live from Charleston, SC at 8:00 p.m ET. Don't forget to tune into CNN's pre-debate coverage starting with Wolf Blitzer at 5pm ET.

1. Hero or Spoiler: Rick Perry Will Quit. The Question is as What.

2. Again, Conservatives Were Right

3. The Budget Out-of-Control Act in Numbers

4. Obama Kills 20,000 Keystone XL Jobs, Laborers' Union Vows Not To Forget

———————————————————————-

1. Hero or Spoiler: Rick Perry Will Quit. The Question is as What.

Yesterday, I argued that Rick Perry should leave the GOP primary in advance of Saturday's election and endorse Newt Gingrich, who is the most logical fit in the existing field for a Perry endorsement.

The Perry campaign responded that the race would be decided by voters, not pundits behind a computer.

Fair enough. Rick Perry does not want to be seen as a quitter. But quit he will. I do not want him to quit. I urged him to stay in the race. But sadly his campaign has been unable to get the second look I thought it deserved. Now, at this point, he and I both know he is going to quit the race. The only question is whether he quits now and saves us from Romney or quits Sunday and ensures us Romney.

It may suck, but it is reality. And we are forced at times like this to deal with reality. The reality is that Rick Perry will be quitting the race, but he is not quitting the fight, which has always been more important. We started campaign season with candidates asking what Washington can do for America. Through his singlehanded, tireless, and unfailing efforts, Rick Perry has managed to steer the conversation to what Washington cannot do for America and what Americans can do themselves if Washington just gets the hell out of the way.

Without Rick Perry in the race, that would never have happened. But sadly, at this point, with Rick Perry in the race the people most likely to campaign and govern with Perry's conviction to make Washington as inconsequential in our lives as possible have no chance. For Rick Perry's vision of America to win — something we should all want — Rick Perry must depart the race now.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

2. Again, Conservatives Were Right

On and on it goes.

Republicans in Congress cut deals with Democrats. The Republicans' favorite reporters and pundits tell us just how awesome those deals are. Then those deals blow up in our faces.

More tragically, then the same Republican leaders who negotiated those deals go back and negotiate the next deals and the same reporters and pundits at the same publications who told the last ones were so awesome tell us these are so awesome and then these deals too blow up in our faces. Conservatives always raise the alarm. The Republicans always run to the usual suspects to spin their way out of the mess.

On Facebook yesterday, Senator Jim DeMint noted this folly. Republicans were supposed to have big wins on the debt ceiling and on the Keystone XL Pipeline. They told us they had played the Democrats. Instead, we played ourselves.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

3. The Budget Out-of-Control Act in Numbers

The House voted to disapprove of Obama's request for an additional $1.2 trillion increase in the debt ceiling. Needless to say, they failed to garner the requisite two-thirds majority to preclude Obama from issuing more debt. The total federal debt will inexorably rise to at least $16.4 trillion by the end of the year.

But wait. Didn't we pass a Budget Control Act to usher in a new era of budget austerity?

On August 1, the total federal debt stood at $14,342,358,440,969.10. Today, it stands at $15,236,288,061,558.65. That's an increase of $894 billion.

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4. Obama Kills 20,000 Keystone XL Jobs, Laborers' Union Vows Not To Forget

After months of playing political ping-pong with 20,000 potential (mostly union) jobs, the Obama administration decided on Wednesday to kill the controversial Keystone XL pipeline, which would have carried crude oil from Canada to Gulf Coast refineries.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

Again, Conservatives Were Right

On and on it goes.

Republicans in Congress cut deals with Democrats. The Republicans' favorite reporters and pundits tell us just how awesome those deals are. Then those deals blow up in our faces.

More tragically, then the same Republican leaders who negotiated those deals go back and negotiate the next deals and the same reporters and pundits at the same publications who told the last ones were so awesome tell us these are so awesome and then these deals too blow up in our faces. Conservatives always raise the alarm. The Republicans always run to the usual suspects to spin their way out of the mess.

On Facebook yesterday, Senator Jim DeMint noted this folly. Republicans were supposed to have big wins on the debt ceiling and on the Keystone XL Pipeline. They told us they had played the Democrats. Instead, we played ourselves.

From Senator DeMint:

The two political victories leading Republicans planned on celebrating today only showcase how much we have to lose by compromising with the Democrats.

The non-binding vote of disapproval on the debt ceiling increase held in the House today and the Obama Administration's decision not to authorize the Keystone Pipeline were supposed to be excruciating political exercises for the Democrats. They turned out to be a walk in the park.

Instead of generating a great public uproar over the debt, economy, and jobs, all President Obama had to do was reiterate his long-held positions—that the debt ceiling should be increased and the Keystone Pipeline should not be authorized.

Giving the President exactly what he wants and then asking him to remind the public that he wanted it after the fact isn't a strategy to win. It's a strategy to cover-up a stunning loss under the guise of a compromise.