Erick Erickson's Blog, page 71

The National Review's Candidate Won't Stop Digging

It is days like today that make me thankful I think they all suck. At least I'm thankful I'm in the firmly not Romney camp.

Having told us only Romney was viable (with half-nods to Huntsman and Santorum) and having trotted out Elliot Abrams to smear Newt Gingrich with out of context quotes, even National Review is having trouble defending their candidate today.

This morning Mitt Romney said he wasn't concerned about the poor. The poor, after all, have food stamps and Medicaid. But don't worry. If the safety net is broken, Patrician Mitt Romney will fix it so the poor can stay comfortably poor. After all, just look what he did in Massachusetts. The poor can now wait 44 days to get in to see a doctor. Excelsior!

After making sure we all understood the poor were for the Democrats to be worried about, Romney decided to keep digging his hole even bigger. By the end of the day, Jim DeMint had to rebuke him.

Romney, digging his hole deeper, said his remark needed more context. The context, according to Romney, is that we have government programs to keep the poor . . . well . . . poor but comfortable:

We do have a very ample safety net in America, with Medicaid, housing vouchers, food stamps, earned income tax credit. We have a number of ways of helping the poor. And yet my focus and the area that I think is the greatest challenge that the country faces right now is not, is not to focus our effort on how we help the poor as much as to focus our effort on how to help the middle class in America.

Oh, but that's not all. If you misunderstood patrician Mitt Romney, he trotted out the other New England patrician, John Sununu — the man who advised George H. W. Bush to go with David Souter — to dig the hole even deeper. Sununu told the National Review that their candidate has no intention of changing policies to those that might actually lift the poor out of poverty into the middle class.

"He was saying that we do not need to change policies for them. Same goes for the super-rich, who are fine. It's the middle class; they're the ones we need to be aggressive in helping. They're the ones who've taken the brunt of the bad Obama policies of the past three years."

Note the use of "they're" in talking about the middle class. They have been hurt most. Not the poor. Not the rich. So much for the GOP condemning class warfare. Romney's folks are going with it too. Where Obama goes for "fair shares", Romney wants to focus only on those hurt "most."

But the coup de grace came late today when, to mitigate the damage, Romney reminded everyone he supports automatic hikes in the minimum wage — a truly conservative position.

The National Review sure does know how to pick them. Glad they'll be defending him in the general. I'm not sure I'll waste my time. Sure, I'll vote for him. But I think I'll focus on House and Senate races so when the buyers remorse sets in on those who backed Romney we're not completely screwed down ballot.

Sixty-Five to One: It's Not That Complicated

Political analysts have a need to sound expertly and important when it comes to elections. They have to go in depth and explain artfully and deeply why someone won and someone lost.

It was the debates. It was the ground game. It was the strategies. It was the likability versus dislikability of the candidates. On and on they go.

What gets danced around is the money. Money is usually why candidates win or lose. Candidates with the highest favorable name ID usually win. To do that takes lots of money and lots of ads.

For all the hoopla about Mitt Romney's victory in Florida, it really is not that hard to understand. All you need to understand is the ratio 65 to 1.

As my friend Jim Galloway notes at the Atlanta Journal Constitution, Mitt Romney ran 65 ads for every 1 ad run by or for Newt Gingrich. Ron Paul and Rick Santorum were shut out altogether.

If you win the air war that significantly, you are going to win the election. We don't need fancy spin and long winded explanations to understand that.

Mitt Romney Plays to the Liberal Caricature

Not 12 hours after the networks called it for him, Mitt Romney went on CNN's Starting Point with Soledad O'Brien, spoke from the heart, and played straight into the liberal caricature that Republicans don't have hearts.

As CNN noted in a press release:

Romney says, "I'm not concerned about the very poor. We have a safety net there. If it needs a repair , I'll fix it. I'm not concerned about the very rich…. I'm concerned about the very heart of America, the 90-95 percent of Americans who right now are struggling."

The left will focus on his lack of concern for the very poor. The right should focus on the bit about "if [the safety net] needs a repair." Conservatives have been making the case for quite some time that the social safety net is not working as well as it could, as efficiently as it could, and is going to bankrupt us.

But Soledad O'Brien allowed Mitt Romney to clarify his remarks in case there was a misunderstanding. He chose to dig his hole deeper.

Romney continues, "We will hear from the Democrat party, the plight of the poor…. You can focus on the very poor, that's not my focus…. The middle income Americans, they're the folks that are really struggling right now and they need someone that can help get this economy going for them."

The problem here is that the middle class won't vote for a Democrat pledging to raise taxes only on the rich for the same reason they won't vote for a Republican who says he is not concerned about the very poor. They know they are next. And evangelicals who Romney already has a problem with are very mindful of the rich man and Lazarus. You can see the whole segment here for yourself.

Expect this to be an ad against Romney, along with liking to fire people and that corporations are people too. The issue here is not that Romney is right or wrong, but that he is handing choice sound bites to the Democrats to make him as unlikeable as he made Newt Gingrich.

First Collector: At this festive time of year, Mr. Scrooge, it is more than usually desirable that we should make some slight provision for the poor and destitute.

Ebenezer: Are there no prisons?

First Collector: Plenty of prisons.

Ebenezer: And the union workhouses – are they still in operation?

First Collector: They are. I wish I could say they were not.

Ebenezer: Oh, from what you said at first I was afraid that something had happened to stop them in their useful course. I'm very glad to hear it.

With no concern for the poor and no focus on the poor, Andrew Malcolm notes a line in Romney's rhetoric from last night that's a bit ironic given today:

'Remember when our White House reflected the best of who we are'

Morning Briefing for February 1, 2012

RedState Morning Briefing

For February 1, 2012

Go to www.RedStateMB.com to get
the Morning Briefing every morning at no charge.

1. Susan G. Komen Listened. Have You Responded?

2. The Fat Lady Hasn't Sung, But She's Warming Up

3. The Bad Messaging of the Newt Gingrich Super PAC

4. The Inconvenient Constitution

———————————————————————-

1. Susan G. Komen Listened. Have You Responded?

Yesterday, the Susan G. Komen Foundation announced it would stop giving money to Planned Parenthood. Conservatives have been pushing on this issue for a while.

As a result of the announcement, the left has gone on the attack. It is important that you who wanted Komen to do this say thank you. You can email them at news@Komen.org.

More importantly, you can donate to them. If you are not willing to support an organization that takes a stand you want when they come under attack, you cannot be surprised when less organizations listen to you.

So say thank you.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

2. The Fat Lady Hasn't Sung, But She's Warming Up

If I were a national Republican operative, I'd be very worried about tonight. If I were a Mitt Romney fan, I'd be ecstatic.

The Romney win in Florida was huge. He won the hispanic vote. He split tea party activists and evangelicals. He won where people live. Gingrich won the panhandle and largely tied in the few northern Florida population centers, but it was Romney's night.

He is on the way toward the nomination. The fat lady is warming up. But it is not a done deal yet. He still has a fractured base and lost the heart of the base. He has trouble with tea party activists and evangelicals though he roughly tied with Gingrich in capturing their support, and he has trouble with strong conservatives. Nonetheless, his get out the vote operation was a phenomenal success and the 15 to 1 advertising ratio in his favor clinched it for him. Ron Brownstein has a solid analysis on Romney's win.

It is worth nothing that in the last week of the race only 0.1% of advertising was pro-Romney and roughly 70% was anti-Gingrich.

The panhandle held for Gingrich, which is more typical of a number of upcoming primaries than the rest of the state.

Here's why I'd be nervous if I were a GOP operative.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

3. The Bad Messaging of the Newt Gingrich Super PAC

I was surprised to land in Miami today for CNN's coverage of the Florida Presidential Preference Primary and hear one Newt Super PAC ad over and over. I heard it on rock stations. I heard it on Rush Limbaugh. I heard it on a sports talk station.

It attacked Mitt Romney for abortion. Abortion. In a state with a massive housing crisis and a state that led the way in the fight on Obamacare, the Newt Super PAC decided to run ads in Miami, FL on abortion.

There is just one ad that the Newt Super PAC needs to run and that the Newt campaign itself needs to run. They need to take Rick Santorum's attack on Romneycare from the CNN Jacksonville, FL debate and turn it into a commercial.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

4. The Inconvenient Constitution

As a United States Senator, I have sworn an oath to support, defend, and bear true faith and allegiance to the Constitution of the United States. Complying with this Oath is not always convenient. Sometimes this requires voting against legislation that embodies policies I agree with, other times it requires taking a stand when doing so may not be popular.

The Constitution itself is not a document of convenience. It specifies an onerous process – bicameralism and presentment – with which the government must comply to enact legislation. And it imposes separation of government powers and a system of checks and balances between the different branches.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

The Fat Lady Hasn't Sung, But She's Warming Up

If I were a national Republican operative, I'd be very worried about tonight. If I were a Mitt Romney fan, I'd be ecstatic.

The Romney win in Florida was huge. He won the hispanic vote. He split tea party activists and evangelicals. He won where people live. Gingrich won the panhandle and largely tied in the few northern Florida population centers, but it was Romney's night.

He is on the way toward the nomination. The fat lady is warming up. But it is not a done deal yet. He still has a fractured base and lost the heart of the base. He has trouble with tea party activists and evangelicals though he roughly tied with Gingrich in capturing their support, and he has trouble with strong conservatives. Nonetheless, his get out the vote operation was a phenomenal success and the 15 to 1 advertising ratio in his favor clinched it for him. Ron Brownstein has a solid analysis on Romney's win.

It is worth nothing that in the last week of the race only 0.1% of advertising was pro-Romney and roughly 70% was anti-Gingrich.

The panhandle held for Gingrich, which is more typical of a number of upcoming primaries than the rest of the state.

Here's why I'd be nervous if I were a GOP operative. Turn out, at first projected to exceed 2008′s primary level, turned out to be less than 2008. 57% of Republican voters said they want a different choice. That does not spell excitement or unity headed into November. Republicans can only wave the Supreme Court in front of the base for so long.

And then there is one bit of data worth noticing. If you add Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum together, they come in a point behind Mitt Romney. But add in the bitter candidate clingers who just can't let go (I kid because I love) of Michelle Bachmann, Rick Perry, Jon Huntsman, and Herman Cain and suddenly, suddenly, the non-Romney's win without even adding in Ron Paul.

Susan G. Komen Listened. Have You Responded?

Yesterday, the Susan G. Komen Foundation announced it would stop giving money to Planned Parenthood. Conservatives have been pushing on this issue for a while.

As a result of the announcement, the left has gone on the attack. It is important that you who wanted Komen to do this say thank you. You can email them at news@Komen.org.

More importantly, you can donate to them. If you are not willing to support an organization that takes a stand you want when they come under attack, you cannot be surprised when less organizations listen to you.

So say thank you.

The Bad Messaging of the Newt Gingrich Super PAC

I was surprised to land in Miami today for CNN's coverage of the Florida Presidential Preference Primary and hear one Newt Super PAC ad over and over. I heard it on rock stations. I heard it on Rush Limbaugh. I heard it on a sports talk station.

It attacked Mitt Romney for abortion. Abortion. In a state with a massive housing crisis and a state that led the way in the fight on Obamacare, the Newt Super PAC decided to run ads in Miami, FL on abortion.

There is just one ad that the Newt Super PAC needs to run and that the Newt campaign itself needs to run. They need to take Rick Santorum's attack on Romneycare from the CNN Jacksonville, FL debate and turn it into a commercial.

Costs are up in Massachusetts.

People wait 44 days to see a doctor.

And Mitt Romney considers his brainchild such a success he once wanted it as a model for the nation.

Run that over and over and over. Spending that much money on an abortion attack on Romney in Florida should warrant Sheldon Adelson getting a refund.

What I'm looking for in Florida tonight

Mitt Romney will win Florida tonight. The victory is already locked in. Early voting, etc. have helped. Here's what I'm looking for in Florida.

The margin of victory by Romney. Polling has Romney between 10 and 12 points ahead. So if he is 9 points ahead or less, given that he has one hell of a ground game here, that suggests Gingrich was able to fire up a ground game. If it is more than 10 to 12 points, which is what I expect, the road ahead becomes even more difficult because Romney has had more time to set up shop in the next few states.
Do Santorum and Gingrich combined beat Romney? Polls suggest it will be close. I'm guessing, before polls close, that they will not outmatch Romney combined.
Where do evangelicals go in the Florida Panhandle. Polls won't close there until 8pm ET tonight. Do they split evenly, go for Romney, or mix between Gingrich and Santorum. North Florida is often referred to as an extension of South Alabama and South Georgia. We could get some indicators for future campaign plans in the South from the Panhandle.
Will we finally see a majority female vote with women voting against Gingrich? Iowa (I think) and South Carolina both had more men turn out and the women in South Carolina broke for Gingrich. I'm pretty sure we'll see a high turnout for women and they will go for Romney.
Do hispanic voters vote as a demographic group or like other voters with shared concerns. The media often treats racial groups as common voting blocks, with reason, but I am interested to see how it shakes out tonight.

Mitt Romney will win. By how much is the big question.

Rethinking Santorum: Conventional Wisdom Finally Catches Up to Where I Was Two Weeks Ago

This morning I noted that Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich together get more votes than Romney and several polls out in the past few weeks have had Santorum votes going to Gingrich. That has been the convention wisdom.

About two weeks ago I decided the conventional wisdom was wrong, but having been told for two weeks I was wrong, I made the mistake of sticking with the conventional wisdom this morning.

Suddenly the new conventional wisdom is where I was back on January 12 and reflected as recently as last week in my Horserace poll.

The reality is, polling has taken a while to process Marianne Gingrich and many pundits still don't get evangelicals and have been convinced conservative evangelicals would not go with a Mormon.

In fact, as the Marist poll now shows and shapes anew the conventional wisdom toward where I've been, evangelical voters don't care that Romney is a Mormon. They do care that Newt Gingrich is on his third wife, having left the first for the second and the second for the third.

Moreso, as evangelical leaders told me the night of the South Carolina election, serious discussions have been had about keeping Santorum in the race to keep Gingrich from rising. But as more and more arrived at the conclusion that Santorum actually hurts Romney, less have felt it necessary to send big bucks to Santorum to keep him in.

The concern many evangelicals have is on social and family issues, which many think could not be adequately discussed if Newt Gingrich were the nominee. We are starting to see the shift to Mitt Romney, begrudgingly, not because they like him but because reality is setting in that Santorum cannot win and Newt Gingrich has too much personal baggage for many evangelicals to get past.

Ultimately, I think a Santorum departure becomes a wash with Santorum voters fracturing mostly toward Romney, but with a significant minority to Gingrich and undecideds still out there leaning toward Gingrich making Santorum's departure not as meaningful as some might otherwise want to believe, though definitely tightening it drawing Gingrich closer to Romney.

Moving Past Florida

"It's like we're facing Jimmy Carter and nominating Alf Landon."

More and more polls show two things: (1) tonight Mitt Romney will win Florida and (2) Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum will combined get more votes. In fact, moving forward, the Romney campaign will probably engage in a concerted effort to prop up Rick Santorum because as long as he stays in the race, Gingrich will find it very difficult to stop Romney. More interestingly, if Santorum drops out and Newt Gingrich starts winning, suddenly the establishment will have to take seriously the idea of finding someone to replace Mitt Romney.

I get repeated calls asking me to ask Rick Santorum to get out of the race. I doubt he would even listen and, unlike Rick Perry, Rick Santorum actually won a state. Today he is going to get badly, badly beaten. And it'll probably be downhill from there. But there's no more reason to ask him to get out of the race than Gingrich. He can decide to stay in and help Romney or get out and help Gingrich.

After Florida, the decisions become more crucial.There will be a series of nonbinding caucuses in February: Maine on February 4-11; Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri on February 7. There will be a binding caucus in Nevada on February 4, which the Gingrich camp is rumored to be ceding to Romney. Michigan and Arizona will both have closed primaries on February 28th. Both favor Romney because of ties to the states. Super Tuesday hits March 6 with elections in Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont, and Virginia. Will the non-Romney's support Ron Paul in Virginia and Gingrich rally Georgia to his cause?

Gingrich and Santorum will have to fight both for the conservative vote and to make up ground against the Romney money machine. The odds are long that either can do it. Together, they cannot. One of them will have to depart the race if they want to stop Romney — assuming they do.

In all of this, I get the real sense that there are wounds opening up that will not be healed by November of 2012. Mitt Romney, in deciding to run the McCain strategy from 2008, may be doing himself more damage than McCain ever did to himself. We knew what we were getting with McCain. But the Romney of 2012 is a different creature from the Romney of 2008. That has energized many to stop him and kept his support an inch deep.

It's like we're facing Jimmy Carter and nominating Alf Landon.