Erick Erickson's Blog, page 72

Morning Briefing for January 31, 2012

RedState Morning Briefing

For January 31, 2012

Go to www.RedStateMB.com to get
the Morning Briefing every morning at no charge.

1. Moving Past Florida

2. House Conservatives Need to Block the Coming Highway Bailout

3. End Refundable Tax Credits for Illegals

4. Is Newt Much Better on the Question of Mandates?

5. Secretary Sebelius Scraps Conscience Exception for Health Plans

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1. Moving Past Florida

More and more polls show two things: (1) tonight Mitt Romney will win Florida and (2) Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum will combined get more votes. In fact, moving forward, the Romney campaign will probably engage in a concerted effort to prop up Rick Santorum because as long as he stays in the race, Gingrich will find it very difficult to stop Romney. More interestingly, if Santorum drops out and Newt Gingrich starts winning, suddenly the establishment will have to take seriously the idea of finding someone to replace Mitt Romney.

I get repeated calls asking me to ask Rick Santorum to get out of the race. I doubt he would even listen and, unlike Rick Perry, Rick Santorum actually won a state. Today he is going to get badly, badly beaten. And it'll probably be downhill from there. But there's no more reason to ask him to get out of the race than Gingrich. He can decide to stay in and help Romney or get out and help Gingrich.

After Florida, the decisions become more crucial.

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2. House Conservatives Need to Block the Coming Highway Bailout

As part of their ongoing "jobs agenda," House Republicans will unveil this week and soon consider the American Energy & Infrastructure Act (AEIA) to reauthorize transportation spending for five years. The "highway bill" promises a host of reforms (consolidating programs and streamlining red tape) and includes increased oil and gas exploration. But unfortunately these reforms are meant to distract from the overall size of the program, and the fact that such spending will require a massive bailout from federal taxpayers.

[Before getting into the proposal, let's first reflect on something. What does it say about a Republican Majority when their number one priority heading into an election year is to pass a massive federal infrastructure bill? I know Republicans are split on the issue, and that many burn all of their anti-Keynes stimulus talking points to give transportation spending a special dispensation as a government "job creator." But really? This is what they want to fight on and draw stark differences with the other party? That is depressing.]

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3. End Refundable Tax Credits for Illegals

Much ink has been poured over the fact that 51% of tax filers paid no federal income taxes in 2009. There is less attention directed towards the more outrageous statistic; 30% of tax filers had a negative tax liability that year. In other words, they made money off the tax system.

Those who won the jackpot on tax day benefited primarily from refundable tax credits; the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), Additional Child Tax Credit (ACTC, the refundable portion of child tax credit), and the now-expired Making Work Pay Credit. In 2011, refundable credits cost the treasury about $94.4 billion. Keep in mind that this is just one small portion of the burgeoning welfare empire, approaching $1 trillion in total federal, state, and local expenditures. While it would be nice to get rid of these redistributive "tax expenditures" for everyone, we could start with illegal aliens.

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4. Is Newt Much Better on the Question of Mandates?

Yesterday I wrote an article on why I view the inevitability of an Obama defeat at the hands of Romney to be less than inevitable. Mostly I attributed this to weakness on a core issue: Obamacare. From my view, Romney cannot adequately take on this topic so long as he insists on defending the principles put forth in Romneycare.

His state's rights position plays ok with the base, but I believe it will be less than compelling to the general electorate when it comes time to decide what separates Obama & Romney on this issue.

In passing, I mentioned that Gingrich, who previously supported the mandate as well, has since determined that he was wrong and will take that to his debates with Obama should he win the nomination.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

5. Secretary Sebelius Scraps Conscience Exception for Health Plans

As the implementation of Obamacare rolls into high gear, we've been given insight into how it will be implemented in general. On January 20, the Department of Health and Human Services announced that it would not exempt health plans provided by non-profit religious employers from the requirement to provide "contraceptive services."

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Morning Briefing for January 30, 2012

RedState Morning Briefing

January 30, 2012

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the Morning Briefing every morning at no charge.

1. Nothing's Shocking

2. $16.4 Trillion in Debt By End of Year

3. Why Mitt Romney's Electability is Not Inevitable

4. Why is the GOP Florida Legislature Trying to Screw Allen West?

5. What's Wrong with Peak Oil Theory? Consider 'Peak Gas'.

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1. Nothing's Shocking

It is a sad commentary on the state of our world that stories like this one (warning, .pdf) (via the Population Research Institute) barely shock us anymore. The gist of the story is as follows: a Massachusetts woman, identified in court pleadings only as Mary Moe, is pregnant with her third child. She aborted her first child. Sometime between this abortion and the birth of her second child, she suffered a "psychotic break" and was diagnosed with shizophrenia and bipolar mood disorder, for which she takes medication. Reading inbetween the lines, it is reasonable to assume that the woman's first abortion may have been a contributing factor in her mental illness.

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2. $16.4 Trillion in Debt By End of Year

So this is what the "age of budget austerity" looks like?

Yesterday, the Senate voted against a measure to disapprove of Obama's request for an additional $1.2 trillion of debt. Every Democrat (except for Ben Nelson and Joe Manchin) voted against the resolution. Consequently, pursuant to the Budget Control Act (the "debt ceiling deal"), Obama will automatically get his new credit card. Our debt will increase by another $1.2 trillion, topping $16.4 trillion by the end of the year.

Here are the relevant numbers that should define Obama's presidency, yet they will not be disseminated in the major media. When Obama took office, the total federal debt stood at $10.6 trillion. By the end of his first term, the debt will be at least $16.4 trillion, an increase of $5.8 trillion. To put that in perspective, it took us until late 2001 (from our nation's founding) to accrue $5.8 trillion in debt. Even President Bush, who was a big-spending Republican, racked up "only" $4.9 trillion over 8 years.

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3. Why Mitt Romney's Electability is Not Inevitable

After many months of getting a pass, it seems that the other candidates are willing to finally start hitting Governor Mitt Romney on his major weakness: The Massachusetts Health Care Insurance Reform Law. The bill, known by most as Romneycare, is (as we all have been saying for many moons) the basis for the much maligned Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, otherwise affectionately known as Obamacare.

I've been in endless debates and discussions with Romney supporters and surrogates for some time now as they paint a beautiful picture of the ultimate State's Rights battle. They claim that Romneycare vs Obamacare isn't about socialized medicine vs the free market. They say it's actually the core of the Federalist struggle and that Romney will channel Mr. Smith Goes to Washington and march onto the capital steps, fulfilling the dreams and desires of tea partiers nationwide by finally standing up and saying, "Enough is enough! Let the state's make their decisions Obama! Your days of tyranny are at an end!" And they all rejoiced.

Yet, continually when Romney is approached on this subject in the debates with fellow Republicans, he seems incapable of defending any other point and seems befuddled at the idea that there might be more than one part about Obamacare that American's had wholly objected to. For him, it's all about the mandate.

But it's important to keep in mind, Mitt Romney does not object to the concept of mandates. Far from it actually.

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4. Why is the GOP Florida Legislature Trying to Screw Allen West?

As an outspoken black conservative with a high national profile, Allen West already had a huge national target painted on his back going in to 2012. As part of reapportionment as a result of the 2010 census, Florida gained 2 Congressional seats. Despite that, it appears that the Republican-controlled Florida legislature seems to have somehow managed to make Allen West's seat much more difficult to defend.

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5. What's Wrong with Peak Oil Theory? Consider 'Peak Gas'.

In 1956, M. King Hubbert predicted that crude oil production in the U.S. (ex-Alaska) would peak in rate around 1970, to be followed by a long, irreversible decline. Hubbert nailed the timing of the peak, and in doing so, cemented his status as a technological visionary among neo-Malthusians and opponents of the "fossil fuels". But Hubbert's paper also contained a similar forecast for gas.

In 1956, Hubbert's estimate of the amount of natural gas that would ultimately be consumed in the U.S. was 850 trillion cubic feet (TCF).

In the 1978 update, Hubbert increased his estimate to 1,103 TCF, but considered that value to be on the high side.

By the end of 2010, we had produced and marketed 1,131 TCF from the Lower 48, more gas than Hubbert thought would ever be possible. We find ourselves in the midst of a natural gas boom, with gas production now exceeding the peaks of 1973: rates are over three times higher than the 7 TCF per year Hubbert foresaw for 2010. The Lower 48 resource base is some 3,100 TCF, three to four times Hubbert's earlier estimates.

Peak Oilers rarely mention Peak Gas. Hubbert expected his method to work for all resources; why did it fail with respect to gas? The answers to that question shed light on the shortcomings of Peak Oil Theory, and reveal the reasons why it should not be used as a policy-making tool.

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The Jacksonville Brawl

I'm biased, but I think the real winner last night was CNN and I feel confident I'd say that even if they didn't send me a paycheck. After that disastrous and embarrassing NBC debate, Wolf Blitzer held his own, did not get devoured by Newt Gingrich, and engaged in a lot of substance without a lot of random questions like . . . oh . . . say . . . should states ban birth control.

Let me tell you first who lost the debate because it was in a moment with Wolf Blitzer. There was a moment he asked Newt Gingrich about Romney's tax returns and Newt tried to say the question was inconsequential. He tied his napkin around his neck, pulled up his fork and knife, and was just about to sink his teeth into Wolf when Wolf pushed again. The crowd heckled Blitzer. Gingrich drooled over the moderator he was about to consume. "Wanna try again," he asked mischievously. Wolf Blitzer, instead of hopping on Newt's plate pushed once more, pointing out Gingrich had, just this week, attacked Romney on these things. The crowd reacted a bit and Gingrich suddenly tried to get everyone on stage to call a truce. Romney had none of it, instead calling on Gingrich to, in effect, man up and say to Mitt's face the things he says elsewhere.

The crowd turned on Newt. They laughed. They jeered. Blitzer, saved from the jowls of moderator eater, went straight in to a tax question based on Romney's taxes and Newt's tax plan with Newt still on defense from the prior question. The moderator ate Newt. Live by the debate, die by the debate, and Newt Gingrich died in some clever rhetoric, losing the crowd both in that instance and on Mitt Romney's stock ownership.

Mitt Romney won the debate. He and Gingrich behaved like petulant children, but Romney got under Newt's skin in a way Newt did not get under Romney's skin and Newt came off looking the lesser of the two. Additionally, Mitt Romney finally offered up a bold and clear answer on his wealth with a strong defense of capitalism and self-made men. There was no apology and no defense. It was precisely what he needed to do.

Though he may have won, Rick Santorum had the best night of any candidate and though Romney won on points, Santorum won on style and substance. He offered up the strongest attack yet on Romneycare, pointing out how if Romney is the nominee we cede an important line of attack on Obamacare. He rattled Romney in a way Newt did not. He acted like the adult in the room. He got himself some supporters from Newt Gingrich I'm pretty sure.

Then there was Ron Paul. Many of us quickly dismiss Ron Paul, but his performance was stellar. He offered extremely sound responses on healthcare, education, border security, and more. Very few of the questions were on foreign policy, which is where he tends to go off the reservation. Last night he came off as warm, funny, and right on the mark. It was his best debate performance. Santorum and Paul benefited from Romney and Gingrich's constant bickering.

But Romney did what he had to do. He stopped any swing back from Gingrich. His performance more likely than not helped him secure Florida unless Gingrich can pour in money and manpower in the next 24 hours.

Morning Briefing for January 27, 2012

RedState Morning Briefing

January 26, 2012

Go to www.RedStateMB.com to get
the Morning Briefing every morning at no charge.

1. The Jacksonville Brawl

2. And We Should Hate Newt Gingrich for This?

3. Romney's Big Healthcare Lie

4. NLRB To Force Companies To Turn Over Employee Telephone Numbers & E-Mail Addresses To Unions?

5. Ener1 and Barack Obama: If You Own Masterlock Stock, Sell

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1. The Jacksonville Brawl

I'm biased, but I think the real winner last night was CNN and I feel confident I'd say that even if they didn't send me a paycheck. After that disastrous and embarrassing NBC debate, Wolf Blitzer held his own, did not get devoured by Newt Gingrich, and engaged in a lot of substance without a lot of random questions like . . . oh . . . say . . . should states ban birth control.

Let me tell you first who lost the debate because it was in a moment with Wolf Blitzer. There was a moment he asked Newt Gingrich about Romney's tax returns and Newt tried to say the question was inconsequential. He tied his napkin around his neck, pulled up his fork and knife, and was just about to sink his teeth into Wolf when Wolf pushed again. The crowd heckled Blitzer. Gingrich drooled over the moderator he was about to consume. "Wanna try again," he asked mischievously. Wolf Blitzer, instead of hopping on Newt's plate pushed once more, pointing out Gingrich had, just this week, attacked Romney on these things. The crowd reacted a bit and Gingrich suddenly tried to get everyone on stage to call a truce. Romney had none of it, instead calling on Gingrich to, in effect, man up and say to Mitt's face the things he says elsewhere.

The crowd turned on Newt. They laughed. They jeered. Blitzer, saved from the jowls of moderator eater, went straight in to a tax question based on Romney's taxes and Newt's tax plan with Newt still on defense from the prior question. The moderator ate Newt. Live by the debate, die by the debate, and Newt Gingrich died in some clever rhetoric, losing the crowd both in that instance and on Mitt Romney's stock ownership.

Mitt Romney won the debate.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

2. And We Should Hate Newt Gingrich for This?

All the members of the Republican Party who have been complicit and collaborative in the destruction of our nation in the past few decades always talking about smaller government while never fighting against the tide of creeping socialism have now come out against Newt Gingrich.

Yesterday, at National Review, Elliot Abrams attacked Newt Gingrich for attacking Ronald Reagan from the right.

Today, it is Bob Dole's turn.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

3. Romney's Big Healthcare Lie

Almost a full year into the presidential campaign, Romney finally received a full-fledged beatdown for his mendacity over healthcare. He has the nerve to feign outrage over Obamacare, even while he touts Romneycare – a carbon copy of Obamacare – as a virtuous success, supported by 90% of Massachusetts residents. Santorum did his homework, and called him out on the hypocrisy. Romney was never able to answer why the same market intervention and distortions – mandates, subsidies, and Medicaid – which form the bedrock of Obamacare , supposedly worked so well in Massachusetts. The reason he couldn't answer the question is because Romneycare was a complete failure. It is the canary in the coal mine for Obamacare.

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4. NLRB To Force Companies To Turn Over Employee Telephone Numbers & E-Mail Addresses To Unions?

Undaunted by the constitutionally-questionable appointment of three members to Barack Obama's National Labor Relations Board, union attorney and current NLRB chairman Mark Pearce declared in an Associated Press interview that he and his union comrades are continuing their assault on the 93% of private-sector employees who are union-free.

In fact, if Obama's union appointees have their way, all employees who are targeted for unionization will have their employers forced to turn over their home telephone number and e-mail addresses to unions.

Ever since the 1960s, when unions have targeted companies for unionization through a NLRB-supervised election, employers have been required to turn over the list of employee names and their home addresses. The NLRB, in turn, promptly gives the list of employee names and home addresses to the involved union(s).

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5. Ener1 and Barack Obama: If You Own Masterlock Stock, Sell

In 2010, Barack Obama touted Solyndra's solar panels in his State of the Union speech. We know what happened to Solyndra.

In this week's State of the Union, Barack Obama touted Ener1?s electric car batteries. Today, Ener1 filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

Also in Barack Obama's State of the Union this week, he touted Masterlock and the high productivity of its unionized workforce.

Given the odds, if you own stock in Masterlock, you might want to sell.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

And We Should Hate Newt Gingrich for This?

All the members of the Republican Party who have been complicit and collaborative in the destruction of our nation in the past few decades always talking about smaller government while never fighting against the tide of creeping socialism have now come out against Newt Gingrich.

Yesterday, at National Review, Elliot Abrams attacked Newt Gingrich for attacking Ronald Reagan from the right.

Today, it is Bob Dole's turn.

Bob Dole, you will remember from George Stephanoupolos's memoir of his time in Clinton's White House, totally cut the legs out from under Newt Gingrich and House Republicans during the government shut down. According to the Democrats, they were within twenty-four hours of caving to the House Republicans' demands, but Bob Dole surprised them all by caving first.

Dole went on to lose to Bill Clinton and still hates Newt Gingrich for it because Gingrich was the face used to attack Dole — a man who would have been the hero in the fight had Dole not caved.

And we're supposed to hate Newt Gingrich because Bob Dole caved to the Democrats twenty-four hours before they were going to cave to Gingrich?

Pffffft.

The fix is in for Romney, which just means when he is crushed by Barack Obama a lot of Republicans will have a lot of explaining to do. Newt may not be able to win. But Romney sure as hell can't beat Obama either if Newt can't win. The problem remains — Gingrich supporters intrinsically know this to be so and are happy to die fighting. Romney's supporters are still deluding themselves.

Ener1 and Barack Obama: If You Own Masterlock Stock, Sell

In 2010, Barack Obama touted Solyndra's solar panels in his State of the Union speech. We know what happened to Solyndra.

In this week's State of the Union, Barack Obama touted Ener1′s electric car batteries. Today, Ener1 filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

Also in Barack Obama's State of the Union this week, he touted Masterlock and the high productivity of its unionized workforce.

Given the odds, if you own stock in Masterlock, you might want to sell.

The Horserace for January 26, 2012

This is it. The final debate before Florida will be tonight from Jacksonville, FL on CNN. It may be the final debate of the primary season. If it becomes just Mitt, Newt, and Ron, there is no way that MItt Romney will want to share the stage with them after tonight.

I'll be on CNN for post debate coverage, though I'll be in Atlanta tonight. All you need to know is that the latest CNN poll has something like a 22 point swing toward Newt Gingrich, but a lot of post South Carolina polling settled back down from irrational exuberance to Romney still ahead.

Tonight, expect a concerted Romney effort to bring out the really angry Newt. Expect Gingrich to try to throw off Romney. In fact, we may not hear from Santorum and Paul unless they get called on. This is all the Mitt and Newt show. They don't like each other and both have a lot on the line.

One wild card factor — does Rick Santorum stay in? There are rumors circulating he may drop out before Florida because he is out of money. His campaign says no. But we'll see. If he leaves, polls show most of his voters go to Gingrich, but I'm not sure that's actually right.

We'll get into it all below the fold.

Newt Gingrich

Gingrich must perform well tonight in the debate. Debates help Gingrich with momentum and the NBC debate has not fully been factored into polling. He did not do well in that debate. He must shine tonight and he'll have an audience to help him along.

But it is not just polling and I think a lot of people have been complicit in saying "debates won it" when there is more to the story.

I've talked to a number of people in South Carolina and they are all stunned at how the press has missed the story about the Newt v. Romney ground game in South Carolina. According to a number of people I and others have talked to, Newt relied on the traditional grassroots network in South Carolina, outsourcing it to the Speaker, various sheriffs, etc.

Romney's campaign bussed in volunteers from out of state including a heavy contingent from Brigham Young and they were sign holders and phone bankers, but they didn't do traditional GOTV operations.

I think the polling bears out this reality.

In my experience from running campaigns, a well run campaign can match its polling. A well run campaign with well run GOTV can exceed its polling. A well run campaign with a poorly run GOTV operation will never reach its polling. This bears out time and time again in campaigns.

If we look at South Carolina, the final RCP Average was Newt at 33.5% and Romney at 28.5%.

The final results were Newt at 40.4% and Romney at 27.8%. Debate performance cannot explain Newt topping the polling average by 6.9%. The only thing that really explains it is ground game getting the people wowed by the debate performance to the polls.

In Florida, Newt needs a good ground game, not just good debate performances. His related Super PAC has some heavy lifting to do.

Ron Paul

Ron Paul will not be the nominee and does not expect to be the nominee. But he is going to do better than many have expected and he'll get a prime spot at the Republican National Convention to bore us all with Austrian economics.

Mitt Romney

It is his race to lose. If he wins in Florida, the conventional wisdom will be that he is the nominee. The races after Florida up to Super Tuesday favor Mitt Romney, including Arizona, Nevada, and Michigan. But Gingrich will have Georgia on Super Tuesday and they'll be able to fight over the rest.

Romney is on all the ballots, has the most money, and has the best organization. But the Republican base continues to bristle. If he cannot win Florida, he cannot win the nomination. There is much at stake in tonight's CNN debate and there is much at stake for Romney on Tuesday. He's the favorite to win, but Newt can draw it close.

One good thing for Romney — he is better at throwing Newt off his game in a debate than Newt is at throwing Mitt off his game.

Rick Santorum

He will not be the nominee. He is out of money. He cannot put in the time in Florida or elsewhere that he put in in all 99 counties in Iowa. There are rumors he may drop out.

Santorum's support, polls suggest, would go to Newt. I think it would probably be a wash, which is an advantage to Romney. There'd be one less guy fighting him and when forced to confront Newt Gingrich's personal issues, a lot of Santorum's support would slowly shift to Mitt Romney or stay home. That's all Romney needs.

There is an effort to keep Santorum in the race out of Washington on the theory that he keeps Gingrich from consolidating conservatives. That is the most likely scenario. The question for Santorum is who does he want as his nominee. If we wants MItt, he stays in. If he wants Newt, he gets out. Ultimately though, I still think his supporters trickle to Mitt. Maybe not in Florida, but I think it happens even with Gingrich still in the race.

Morning Briefing for January 26, 2012

RedState Morning Briefing

January 26, 2012

Go to www.RedStateMB.com to get
the Morning Briefing every morning at no charge.

1. Wisconsin's Walker Leads Poll As Union Bosses Burn Through Members' Money

2. They Spent Our Taxes on This?

3. Establishments and Our Money: A Response To Avik Roy

4. A Successful Rescue in Somalia and a Psychological Lift for America

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1. Wisconsin's Walker Leads Poll As Union Bosses Burn Through Members' Money

Following Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker's reforming his state's collective bargaining laws and breaking the stranglehold unions held on taxpayers (saving them $476 million so far), union bosses across the country laid siege on the dairy state's capitol and declared war on Walker and his fellow Republicans.

In 2011, union bosses and other outside groups spent tens of millions of dollars in a failed attempt to recall six Republican state senators and are spending millions more now trying to recall Scott Walker.

The millions union are now spending—paid for by union members throughout the country—has Democrats getting nervous that the money spent might strain union coffers to much prior to the November elections.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

2. They Spent Our Taxes on This?

Our national debt stands at $15.2 trillion, and is growing by roughly $6 billion per day. We have tens of trillions in unfunded liabilities for Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. Unfortunately, we have learned that Republicans lack the gumption to fight for transformational spending cuts and reforms of major entitlements. However, at the very least, one would expect them to oppose silly pork projects like Buffalo Soldiers!

Yesterday, the Republican-controlled House passed HR 1022, a bill that would require the Secretary of the Interior to conduct a study of the history of Buffalo Soldiers in the establishment of national parks. The study will cost $400,000. The purpose of the study is to ascertain the feasibility of a plan to create a 200-mile trail between San Francisco and Yosemite National Park in commemoration of the Buffalo Soldiers. The federal government already owns roughly 1/3 of all American land. Do we need to afford them the opportunity to take over more land?

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3. Establishments and Our Money: A Response To Avik Roy

As anyone with a passing familiarity with Republican politics over the past four or five decades knows, conservative magazines and think tanks have been making detailed entitlement reform proposals for most of those years, and Republicans running for offices high and low have been running on platforms of reducing the size and cost of government for just as long. And then nothing happens.

That's why Congress' battles over the debt ceiling and related issues provide such a potent example. Basically all Republican Senators profess to be in favor of smaller government, and yet so few are willing to go to the barricades to make it a reality. Now, I'm a realist – there are limits to how much we could expect even a completely united GOP to bring home as long as Obama is the President and Harry Reid the Senate Majority Leader. But the repeated spectacle of leading pundits and Beltway Republicans tut-tutting Boehner and company for even trying to use their leverage to exact real concessions is a sign that the message Republican voters have been sending is not getting through to everyone.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

4. A Successful Rescue in Somalia and a Psychological Lift for America

Two nights ago, a joint force from America's Tier One special operations command conducted a raid on a pirate camp in Somalia, freeing two hostages – an American and a Dane – and killing their captors before exfiltrating north to Djibouti via helicopter.

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From the Mailbag

Being a Presbyterian, I knew this email was coming. It was predestined.

From: m.weichers111@gmail.com

Subject: Erickson

Date: January 25, 2012 12:13:57 AM EST

To: Contact@redstate.com

Erickson is the biggest religious bigot in this country. I am going to expose him to the world. I promise.

Romney Advisor: No Obamacare Repeal

As Ben Domenech notes in his Transom, Mitt Romney's advisors have now advised him to support "a $2 gas tax, a VAT, and open Taliban talks." Add to that list not repealing Obamacare. Norm Coleman, an advisor to Romney, went on record saying

We're not going to do repeal. You're not going to repeal Obamacare… It's not a total repeal… You will not repeal the act in its entirety, but you will see major changes, particularly if there is a Republican president… You can't whole-cloth throw it out. But you can substantially change what's been done.

We've had this dribble out at the Romney Fan Club over at National Review too — just fix it, don't repeal it. There are practical reasons for doing so, but we should not lose our perspective. The base of the Republican party is energized by the prospects of complete repeal. All the candidates have said they would repeal it. Mitt Romney, within the past two years, flipped his position going from nibbling to full repeal.

In the South Carolina debate on CNN last week, Newt Gingrich said he did not trust the congressional staffs (plural) and would therefore insist on full repeal via reconciliation, which is how the Democrats passed it in the first place through the Senate. His was a wise point. The congressional staffs, both Democrat and Republican, have started functioning as an entrenched legislative branch bureaucracy both doing what they think best for the country even when the voters want otherwise.

In fact, the entrenched legislative bureaucracy has a great deal to do with congressional disapproval in the public. Republican staffers want to inch the ball down the field instead of fighting. Democrat staffers are far more aggressive.

If a Republican gets into the White House and does not sweat blood trying to repeal Obamacare in its entirety (regardless of success), I predict the end of the Republican Party legitimately. It won't be worth fighting for if the party itself does not think it worth fighting for its voters. If the GOP takes back the White House, it's voters will expect a real fight, not a half-hearted attempt.