Erick Erickson's Blog, page 73
January 25, 2012
The State of the Union
There need not be 7000 words, the length of the President's speech, to break it down for you.
John F. Kennedy said, "Ask not what your country can do for you. Ask what you can do for your country."
Barack Obama's State of the Union is all about letting you know that government is going to do everything for you and when it can't keep its promises, it will take from the successful and give to you.
1000 days without the Democrats passing a budget, the President never really even brought it up last night. Then there's healthcare. The President spent two sentences – a mere 44 words – talking about his greatest legacy, now headed before the Supreme Court, 5 justices from which sat in front of him last night. The first reference didn't come until 39 minutes into his speech. I thought he was proud of it.
The first half of his speech was about centralized power in Washington and the second half was about devolving power to the states and deregulation — trying to be all things to all people. But his actual proposals were one size fits all federal fiat with sops to unionization and swing states. He must be really worried about North Carolina given how many shout outs that state got.
President Obama, in his State of the Union address, was light on the details of his laundry list, but at essence embraced the title of Food Stamp President that Newt Gingrich has given him. He wants a public and business community dependent on Washington. He wants a devalued high school diploma and an over valued college degree priced out of reach of the average person except through government run programs and subsidies.
The happy class warrior is off to ensure fairness not at the starting line, but by punishing those who cross the finish line first or with more. But "teachers matter", he got Osama Bin Laden, and kids won't be able to drop out of school anymore — they'll just clog the system.
So there is that.
Morning Briefing for January 25, 2012
RedState Morning Briefing
January 25, 2012
Go to www.RedStateMB.com to get
the Morning Briefing every morning at no charge.
1. The State of the Union
2. We're Fighting Over Two Guys and Neither Side Thinks the Other Can Win
3. Conservatives, Gingrich, and Grace
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1. The State of the Union
There need not be 7000 words, the length of the President's speech, to break it down for you.
John F. Kennedy said, "Ask not what your country can do for you. Ask what you can do for your country."
Barack Obama's State of the Union is all about letting you know that government is going to do everything for you and when it can't keep its promises, it will take from the successful and give to you.
1000 days without the Democrats passing a budget, the President never really even brought it up last night. Then there's healthcare. The President spent two sentences – a mere 44 words – talking about his greatest legacy, now headed before the Supreme Court, 5 justices from which sat in front of him last night. The first reference didn't come until 39 minutes into his speech. I thought he was proud of it.
The first half of his speech was about centralized power in Washington and the second half was about devolving power to the states and deregulation — trying to be all things to all people. But his actual proposals were one size fits all federal fiat with sops to unionization and swing states. He must be really worried about North Carolina given how many shout outs that state got.
President Obama, in his State of the Union address, was light on the details of his laundry list, but at essence embraced the title of Food Stamp President that Newt Gingrich has given him. He wants a public and business community dependent on Washington. He wants a devalued high school diploma and an over valued college degree priced out of reach of the average person except through government run programs and subsidies.
The happy class warrior is off to ensure fairness not at the starting line, but by punishing those who cross the finish line first or with more. But "teachers matter", he got Osama Bin Laden, and kids won't be able to drop out of school anymore — they'll just clog the system.
So there is that.
Please click here for the rest of the post.
2. We're Fighting Over Two Guys and Neither Side Thinks the Other Can Win
I am a firm believer that primaries make stronger candidates. But at some point you just have to stand back, take a sip of bourbon, and sigh "Damn" under your breath as you behold the carnage being wrought within the Republican Party.
The fight has gotten so bitter and acrimonious with only three states chosen because neither side thinks the other side can win. Gingrich supporters understand that the secularists in the media — not the Democrats, but the media to the extent it can be separated from the Obama Machine — will spend six months creeping out independent suburban voters about Mormons, holy underwear, Kolob, postmortem baptism, and views on black people and then, as the coup de grace, Barack Obama will fire up millions of dollars of ads on Bain Capital raiding pension funds forcing the government to cover the debt so Mitt Romney could make millions whether he won or lost a deal.
Romney supporters understand Newt Gingrich will open his mouth.
Mitt Romney will find it very hard to beat Barack Obama because of what Barack Obama will do to him. Newt Gingrich will find it very hard to beat Barack Obama because of what Newt Gingrich will do to himself. That's the simple truth. Both men will have amazingly difficult times beating Barack Obama. It is possible, but probability never favors picking off an incumbent just for starters.
About the only real difference between the Gingrich and Romney camps is that the Gingrich camp intuitively understands this and is happy to go down with a fighter. The Romney camp is still deluded into thinking a milquetoast moderate from Massachusetts who can't win Iowa twice in a primary is somehow electable.
Please click here for the rest of the post.
3. Conservatives, Gingrich, and Grace
With Speaker Gingrich having won South Carolina, and now polling ahead of Gov. Romney in Florida and nationally, there is one question that keeps popping up. What is it about Newt Gingrich that conservatives voters find appealing? Rush Limbaugh has at least part of the answer.
January 24, 2012
We're Fighting Over Two Guys and Neither Side Thinks the Other Can Win
I am a firm believer that primaries make stronger candidates. But at some point you just have to stand back, take a sip of bourbon, and sigh "Damn" under your breath as you behold the carnage being wrought within the Republican Party.
The fight has gotten so bitter and acrimonious with only three states chosen because neither side thinks the other side can win. Gingrich supporters understand that the secularists in the media — not the Democrats, but the media to the extent it can be separated from the Obama Machine — will spend six months creeping out independent suburban voters about Mormons, holy underwear, Kolob, postmortem baptism, and views on black people and then, as the coup de grace, Barack Obama will fire up millions of dollars of ads on Bain Capital raiding pension funds forcing the government to cover the debt so Mitt Romney could make millions whether he won or lost a deal.
Romney supporters understand Newt Gingrich will open his mouth.
Mitt Romney will find it very hard to beat Barack Obama because of what Barack Obama will do to him. Newt Gingrich will find it very hard to beat Barack Obama because of what Newt Gingrich will do to himself. That's the simple truth. Both men will have amazingly difficult times beating Barack Obama. It is possible, but probability never favors picking off an incumbent just for starters.
About the only real difference between the Gingrich and Romney camps is that the Gingrich camp intuitive understands this and is happy to go down with a fighter. The Romney camp is still deluded into thinking a milquetoast moderate from Massachusetts who can't win Iowa twice in a primary is somehow electable.
In the past the Republican Party has had "party elders" who could help the "electable" candidate get to the general election — Ford in 1976 (loser), Dole in 1996 (loser), McCain in 2008 (loser) and the general contempt these "elders" have shown the tea party give the core of Republican voters no faith in their "elders" or leaders any more. In other words, the nomination process has gone off the rails. It has become extremely unpredictable because the base wants to beat its party leaders on the more likely than not correct assumption that it must do that in order to beat Barack Obama.
In short, this election is more volatile than any we have seen in a very long time because the party leaders, after years of learning to corral its base activists have now lost control and lost the respect of the base.
The deadly consequence is a cage match between the base and the establishment both of whom are backing two deeply, deeply flawed candidates with the odds heavily against them in a general election.
Perhaps, just perhaps, it is time for both sides to let the scales fall from their eyes and in a bit of sanity rethink this thing. Time is short, but there is still time. Surely there is someone out there that both the Romney supporters and Newt supporters can agree on who is not named either Romney or Newt.
I am part of the base that will do everything I can to defeat Mitt Romney because I believe he will be a disastrous nominee who will cost us the House, the Senate, the White House, and consequently the Supreme Court. There are Mitt supporters who feel the same about Newt, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul. So maybe we ought to all find someone who we all kind of like instead of heading to Tampa in August all licking wounds and pretending to rally to the man the voters chose between the evils of two real lessers.
Morning Briefing for January 24, 2012
RedState Morning Briefing
January 24, 2012
Go to www.RedStateMB.com to get
the Morning Briefing every morning at no charge.
1. Former Kerry staffer arrested for blowing agents' cover.
2. Congressional Republicans Can and Must Force Obama's Hand on Keystone Pipeline
3. The Republican Base Simply Does Not Like Mitt Romney & Why The Press Rarely Reports It
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1. Former Kerry staffer arrested for blowing agents' cover.
Mind you, you wouldn't know that from the Washington Post's article on the arrest of John Kiriakou. While the Washington Post – from appearances, somewhat reluctantly – reported that Kiriakou (a former CIA officer and Senate Foreign Affairs staffer) had been arrested for revealing names, operations and investigations to the media back in 2008-2009, the paper completely neglected to mention who Kiriakou ended up working for – which is to say, Senator John Kerry (D, MA). Oddly enough, the Washington Post managed to simultaneous note that "[t]he committee had not been aware of the criminal probe of Kiriakou, according to a former U.S. official familiar with the matter" in its article, while unaccountably mentioning that Kiriakou has been leaking classified information publicly for years – including to the, well, Washington Post. One can only guess why a premiere Left-Establishment paper would be so eager to whitewash the record when it comes to protecting prominent Left-Establishment politicians… like, say, John Kerry, who is the Chairman of the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee (at least until next January)…
Please click here for the rest of the post.
2. Congressional Republicans Can and Must Force Obama's Hand on Keystone Pipeline
Immediately prior to the congressional recess in December, Congress passed an inefficacious two-month extension of the Social Security tax cut. Additionally, they reauthorized another two months of unprecedented long-term unemployment benefits, along with more spending for Medicare 'doc fix.' None of it, including the entitlement spending, was paid for in any meaningful way.
Nevertheless, you might ask, didn't we get the Keystone pipeline as part of the deal? Well, in reality we got nothing.
Please click here for the rest of the post.
3. The Republican Base Simply Does Not Like Mitt Romney & Why The Press Rarely Reports It
Mitt Romney is supposedly a brilliant private businessman. It is the theme of his campaign. If a business were to spend as much as he has spent to lose Iowa in 2012 garnering less votes in 2012 than he got in 2008 and then lose all but two counties in South Carolina, you'd think a private businessman would shake up his campaign.
Right now in running his campaign, Mitt Romney conveys all the business acumen of a co-CEO of Research in Motion, both of whom are themselves losing their jobs.
There is, however, some important insight into this we should all now see.
January 23, 2012
The Republican Base Simply Does Not Like Mitt Romney & Why The Press Rarely Reports It
A friend of mine pointed out this morning that Mitt Romney has outspent Newt Gingrich $7 million to $.0008 million in Florida just to watch his 15 pt lead implode overnight.
The Republican base does not trust Mitt Romney. Because they do not trust him, they do not like him as a candidate. His campaign, all too clever to try to sit on an ephemeral lead that any outside observer could see was more vaporware than reality, has decided to go fully negative now against Gingrich.
In other words, Mitt Romney who no one much cares for outside of well paid consultants, lobbyists, and First Class Acela Express Republicans in Washington and New York is going to drive up his own negatives to make Newt Gingrich more toxic to the base than himself. That's a winning strategy for the general for sure! "Hey," Team Romney must be saying, "We'll just remind them about the Supreme Court to get them to turn out in the general." That worked so well for Team McCain.
Mitt Romney is supposedly a brilliant private businessman. It is the theme of his campaign. If a business were to spend as much as he has spent to lose Iowa in 2012 garnering less votes in 2012 than he got in 2008 and then lose all but two counties in South Carolina, you'd think a private businessman would shake up his campaign.
Right now in running his campaign, Mitt Romney conveys all the business acumen of a co-CEO of Research in Motion, both of whom are themselves losing their jobs.
There is, however, some important insight into this we should all now see.
For a year, many of us have been telling reporters and Republicans in Washington that the base does not like Mitt Romney. We have pointed out how since November of 2010 until just before the kick off this year in Iowa his polling average never got above 25.5%.
But it fell on deaf ears.
I really think it fell on deaf ears because a lot of Romney's team comes from the corridors of Washington who have built up relationships with the leading voices in the press over the past decade. The Gang of 500 as they call it and the Romney team have coexisted in a symbiotic relationship of sourcing and news for a long time both related to and separate from Mitt Romney's campaign.
Consequently, any other campaign that had spent what Romney spent and gotten the poor results Romney got would see huge process and analysis pieces on the front page of every major newspaper in America today speculating on a Romney campaign shake up.
That won't happen though with Romney's campaign because of press-operative relationships. And it is that press-operative relationship between the Gang of 500 and Romney's campaign team that has left the Romney campaign stunned by results everyone outside Washington, D.C. saw coming.
Morning Briefing for January 23, 2012
RedState Morning Briefing
January 23, 2012
Go to www.RedStateMB.com to get
the Morning Briefing every morning at no charge.
1. Three States Down, 47 To Go
2. Newt Gingrich Wins. What It Means.
3. This is a recipe for disaster
4. Money for Santorum
5. Six House Dems Would Confiscate 'Excessive' Oil Profits
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1. Three States Down, 47 To Go
The basic dynamics of the 2012 GOP nomination battle remain unchanged: the bulk of the GOP electorate doesn't want Mitt Romney, but isn't really sold on an alternative. Iowa's voters broke late to Rick Santorum as the conservative alternative; South Carolina's broke late, and much more decisively, to Newt Gingrich. It remains up to Newt now to prove he can hold together the conservatives going forward, as Santorum was not equipped or financed well enough to do.
It's worth noting here the raw numbers. While the categories don't perfectly describe the candidates or their supporters, it has been generally true that Romney and Jon Huntsman have appealed to the more moderate Republican primary voters; Gingrich, Santorum, Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann to the more conservative voters; and Ron Paul to the libertarian voters. What we see in the first three states is that in South Carolina, as in Iowa, the conservative vote was a majority:
Iowa: Conservatives 53%, Moderates 26%, Libertarians 21%
New Hampshire: Moderates 56%, Libertarians 23%, Conservatives 19%
South Carolina: Conservatives 57%, Moderates 28%, Libertarians 17%
Please click here for the rest of the post.
2. Newt Gingrich Wins. What It Means.
Mitt and Newt will both have trouble beating Barack Obama. Mitt's trouble will come from Obama. Newt's trouble from himself. But right now, the base doesn't care.
Please click here for the rest of the post.
3. This is a recipe for disaster
Peter Hamby from CNN notes what is going to be a recipe for disaster for Mitt Romney as he tries to relate to the Republican base.
In South Carolina exit polls, Romney wins only the "moderate or liberal", those with incomes in excess of $200,000.00, those with postgraduate education, those who oppose the tea party movement, and those who think religion does not matter at all.
A number of those have been consistent through Iowa and New Hampshire too.
Mitt Romney's exit polling reflects he can get the votes of Washington, D.C. Republicans and those who think we should leave the fate of the country in their hands. But he cannot get the votes of those who think we need to reform and reduce the power of Washington, which I venture to say is a sizable portion of the base.
Please click here for the rest of the post.
4. Money for Santorum
I can confirm tonight from multiple sources that phone calls are in fact occurring between Republicans in Washington and among evangelical leaders to raise money for Rick Santorum rapidly.
The sources tell me that this is not for a Santorum win, though the evangelicals I spoke to continue to hope it is possible. This is to stop Newt Gingrich. One evangelical leader I spoke to said, "If Newt wins, we won't be able to make family values an issue in the general." One lobbyist I spoke to said, "They [the GOP leaders in DC] are really nervous about Gingrich and they think he'd be a disaster. The best way to shut him down is to prop up Rick."
Florida is going to get interesting.
Please click here for the rest of the post.
5. Six House Dems Would Confiscate 'Excessive' Oil Profits
Six House Democrats, led by Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D'OH), have filed a bill aimed at controlling gasoline prices. Styled the "Gas Price Spike Act", H.R. 3784 would establish a "Reasonable Profits Board" which would have the power to confiscate 100% of oil company profits above a level that they deem to be "reasonable".
I know: "You had me at 'Kucinich'."
January 21, 2012
Money for Santorum
I can confirm tonight from multiple sources that phone calls are in fact occurring between Republicans in Washington and among evangelical leaders to raise money for Rick Santorum rapidly.
The sources tell me that this is not for a Santorum win, though the evangelicals I spoke to continue to hope it is possible. This is to stop Newt Gingrich. One evangelical leader I spoke to said, "If Newt wins, we won't be able to make family values an issue in the general." One lobbyist I spoke to said, "They [the GOP leaders in DC] are really nervous about Gingrich and they think he'd be a disaster. The best way to shut him down is to prop up Rick."
Florida is going to get interesting.
This is a recipe for disaster
Peter Hamby from CNN notes what is going to be a recipe for disaster for Mitt Romney as he tries to relate to the Republican base.
In South Carolina exit polls, Romney wins only the "moderate or liberal", those with incomes in excess of $200,000.00, those with postgraduate education, those who oppose the tea party movement, and those who think religion does not matter at all.
A number of those have been consistent through Iowa and New Hampshire too.
Mitt Romney's exit polling reflects he can get the votes of Washington, D.C. Republicans and those who think we should leave the fate of the country in their hands. But he cannot get the votes of those who think we need to reform and reduce the power of Washington, which I venture to say is a sizable portion of the base.
The other day, Dan McLaughlin explained who the GOP establishment is. That characterizes Mitt Romney's base even in the exit polls. Unfortunately for him, the base of the party is at war with that precise group.
The buzz in Washington now is that the Republican Establishment fears Gingrich will cause them to lose the House and not get the Senate. Put another way, the current Republican leadership fears that the man who helped the GOP take back the House for the first time in 40 years and his allies in the tea party who helped take back the House in 2010 will cause the GOP to now lose.
They'll lose alright — they'll lose power to others. That's their real fear.
Newt Gingrich Wins. What It Means.
No candidate has won the GOP nomination for President without winning South Carolina since Ronald Reagan in 1980. But every one of those candidates who won had also won either Iowa or New Hampshire.
We're now confronted with a designated front runner, Mitt Romney, who got less votes in Iowa in 2012 than he got in 2008 and who lost South Carolina. His reason for being somehow remains that he is "electable."
If you read a lot of the Republican commentary coming out of Washington even before the polls closed, suddenly South Carolina is irrelevant and the hick rubes of the Palmetto state are just petulant children.
Actually, like with Iowa, it is a rather desperate scream to get another player on the field. It is a red flag. It is the giant "Danger" sign ahead for the general election.
Newt Gingrich's rise has a lot to do with Newt Gingrich's debate performance. But it has just as much to do with a party base in revolt against its thought and party leaders in Washington, DC. The base is revolting because they swept the GOP back into relevance in Washington just under two years ago and they have been thanked with contempt ever since.
Adding insult to injury, the party and thought leaders now try to foist on the base a milquetoast moderate from Massachusetts. Newt Gingrich can thank Mitt Romney and more for the second look he is getting. Base hostility will now be exacerbated by Mitt Romney's backers now undoubtedly making a conscious effort to prop up Rick Santorum to shut down Newt Gingrich.
Consider, before going below the fold, that this is the first time non-Romney ads against Romney have been at parity with Mitt Romney. And that parity caused a rapid erosion of support for Mitt Romney. Parity in advertising, not superiority to Romney, was all it took to begin the end of his South Carolina dominance.
People are mad as hell they are about to be stuck with another boring, moderate, uninspiring choice that has at best a 50/50 shot at losing to the worst president since Carter. They are flocking to Newt not because they think he's a great guy, but because right now, he's the only one fighting for conservatism and GOP voters are looking for a vessel to channel their anger with Obama and their complete disappointment with the GOP establishment which is now embodied perfectly by Romney. They want a conservative fighter because most conservatives look back at Ford, Reagan, Bush, Dole, Bush, and McCain and see only the ones taking a conservative path against the Democrats actually winning.
Trump was a flash in the pan last year, but it was because he took the fight to Obama. And all of the others (Bachmann, Perry, Cain, etc) got their rise because at the time voters sensed they would fight back with them. If nothing else, in the last year, Newt has proven he won't wilt like Mitt did yesterday under pretty basic questioning from Laura Ingraham or a month ago under routine questioning from Brett Baier.
Newt has taken the worst the media, Romney and the left can dish out, and he's still standing and fighting with passion and eloquence. Sure, he'd probably be an erratic President, but right now Republican voters don't care about his Presidency. They care about the fight with the left both Mitt Romney, and the Washington Republican leaders like John Boehner and Mitch McConnell don't seem inclined to engage in.
In every way in the last two weeks, Romney has signaled he won't fight for the base. He looks like a lost child when trying to answer the taxes issue. He couldn't stand up to Santorum in the debate. He sounds every bit like Gordon Gekko, not Milton Friedman, when he talks Bain and free markets.
Basically, today's vote is about Republican grassroots giving the Washington Republican establishment the finger. The base is angry, and right now, only Newt is left to fight for them, as imperfect as he is. We may still end up with Romney, but voters aren't going to let him have it easily.
Party leaders who have invested so much in Mitt Romney might want now to ride on to a brokered convention and find someone acceptable to everyone. Because this most divisive and bitter primary in years is going to wipe out the GOP's chances to win in November. And while few of the Romney advocates of the past four years will admit it, it is because they have tried to foist onto the base a milquetoast moderate from Massachusetts as energizing to conservatives as a dead battery.
Consider this related post by Ben Domenech a must read on this subject.
ATTN South Carolina RedState Readers
Roland Martin and I are going to be covering the South Carolina primary from rainy Columbia, SC tonight. We'll be at Liberty Tap Room located at 828 Gervais Street, Columbia, SC 29201 if you want to stop by.
Consider this an open thread.
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