Brian Clegg's Blog, page 32

Crow Investigations Series - review

I have become very fond of a distinctly niche genre - urban fantasy crime fiction. Books by Paul Cornell (Shadow Police) and Ben Aaronovitch (Rivers of London) combine magic in a present day world with a police procedural to make a fascinating and fun read. Having exhausted their output so far, I was looking for something else on the same lines and came across Sarah Painter's four books (to date) in the Crow Investigations series, starting with The Night Raven.

Although not strictly police procedural (the main character, Lydia Crow is a private investigator rather than a cop), this London-set series combines crime and magic with a genuinely original and delightful scenario. There are four 'magical families' in London with special abilities who have used these abilities to further their families fortunes - sometimes legally, sometimes otherwise.

Lydia is part of the the somewhat dodgy Crow family, but has been brought up out of the family circle and has just moved back to London to be dropped back into things in a big way. There are some lovely details - for example her coin (read the book for an explanation) - and Lydia's unlikely assistant, whose role grows through the series.

I will certainly continue to read these books, but they aren't quite up to the level of the other two mentioned above. This is because Sarah Painter drags out the action - arguably there is really only enough material for two books here. Lydia is constantly refusing to pay any attention to information that is essential to carry the plot forward - hardly a great characteristic for a P.I. Nonetheless, there's a rich inventiveness here, and things do pick up speed a little by book four. So, a worth addition to the field.

The Night Raven and its sequels are available from Amazon.co.uk and Amazon.com.

Using these links earns us commission at no cost to you

Big number statistics and press release journalism

Photo by Martijn Baudoin on UnsplashOn Friday I was in the car from 7 to 9, so listened to two hours of the Today programme. I was getting increasingly irritated as the BBC's economics editor, Faisal Islam  was repeatedly played reporting on the news that the British Retail Consortium (BRC) had stated that a no-deal Brexit would result in £3.1 billion a year in tariffs on EU food. There was no analysis, just the big number and a couple of other shocking figures like a 57% tariff on the import (sic) of cheddar cheese.

One of the main rules of good reporting of statistics is that you don't just give a big number, but that you put that number into context - and when dealing with a forecast, it's essential to explain the assumptions that lie behind that forecast.

I looked on the BRC website and found the press release that contained all the information in the BBC's report. It also gave no context and no details of the assumptions. Worse, it gave no way to dig into the data behind the press release.

One useful way to give context to that £3.1 billion figure, which is pretty much meaningless as a comprehensible number, is to get an average per household. The UK has around 28 million households. So £3.1 billion a year is, on average, £110 a household per year. Perhaps more meaningfully to the way we food shop, that's around £2.10 a week. Obviously something no one wants to pay, but perhaps not as scary sounding as £3.1 billion.

The reason I'm concerned about assumptions is that we have no idea, for example, what assumptions were made about changes of purchasing patterns. So, for example, if EU cheddar cheese became really expensive, would those who buy EU cheddar cheese (boggle) switch to a cheaper British cheese? The cheddar example is a dramatic one, but almost anything we buy from the EU may have cheaper alternatives. In fact, they may not even be the same type of product. 

One of the best illustrations I've heard of the importance of not only considering direct substitutions was a discussion with an executive at a major car company - I think it was Mercedes - who said that it was missing the point to think that competitors for the cash of buyers of their £100,000+ vehicles were necessarily other car manufacturers. It was just as likely to be, say, a yacht manufacturer or a swimming pool company. Of course, we're not dealing with these here, but if, for example, beef mince had a 48% tariff imposed (another of the examples from the press release), while some would switch to British mince, others might switch to, say, Quorn.

UPDATE 26/9/20 12:21 - Many thanks to the BRC for a very rapid response to a query (at the weekend too!) They responded 'Calculations were taken from supermarkets together accounting for almost half the UK grocery market, and were then upscaled to account for the rest of the market.  We did not try and calculate substitution effects (which might lower total tariff cost) or how domestic suppliers would change prices (which would likely increase), simply because it would be almost impossible to calculate.'

I take the point it would be difficult to forecast substitution effects, but the surely should have made clear that there was no attempt to do so, meaning the £3.1 billion figure had little basis in reality.

Please note that this piece is not about Brexit and its impact. Whether or not you are happy to pay the price that Brexit will indubitably put on us, the point is about how numbers are presented in a way that best informs the public. It's about time it was done better.

A Farewell to Schedules

The COVID-19 change in lifestyle seems to have accelerated something that has been coming for a while - we have now entirely abandoned watching TV at the broadcast time, and, for the most part, only stream programmes.

The only things we don't stream are any programs we want to watch on ITV or Channel 4 - these are recorded on a PVR (digital personal video recorder) so we can skip through the adverts. But for the rest, which is a mix of BBC iPlayer, Netflix, Britbox and Amazon Prime, it's streaming all the way. This means we spend most of our TV watching time using the excellent Apple TV box - again, it's only for ITV and Channel 4 we have to switch back to the PVR, and currently, in the summer desert of interesting new material, such times are few and far between.

There's a wonderful freedom to moving away from the schedules. If we want to watch, say, three episodes of Mrs America on the BBC in a row, we can. Or to simply ignore something for a few days and then come back to it without worrying if it recorded okay.

I've long argued that the BBC needs to move from a legally enforced licence fee to a subscription model. This new way of viewing emphasises this even more. I'd happily pay an iPlayer subscription to do away with the need for the licence fee - and it just makes so much more sense. I was delighted that in his excellent book The Nanny State Made Me , Stuart Maconie also argues for moving away from the licence fee. His reasoning is different from mine, but equally valid. Maconie points out that the licence fee means that the BBC ends up pumping out loads of trash because it has to be everything to everybody, where a subscription would enable it to do what it does best and only that.

I read a ridiculous article by Polly Toynbee the other day claiming 'The government’s next assault [after the BBC stopped providing free licences for over-75's] is their proposal to decriminalise non-payment of the TV licence, effectively making it voluntary.' What? So is she saying it's voluntary to pay for everything else where it's a civil offence not to pay? This is ludicrous. Making non-payment of the licence fee a criminal offence means thousands of people get unnecessary criminal records. But it also underlines what a terrible system the licence fee is.

I appreciate that not everyone is ready to go straight to streaming (though I suspect most younger people are) - but surely it's time we had a hybrid system where you either get a TV licence or can subscribe to iPlayer without a licence? The world has changed - the BBC's funding has to as well.

HP Instant Ink - Review

Like many people, I suspect, I have been suspicious of HP's Instant Ink service. The idea is that rather than buy replacement ink cartridges when you need them, HP sends them before you need them and you pay per page. I'm not a heavy user of printing and wondered if it would be a bit like gym membership - you get ripped off because you pay every month but don't use it enough. Even so, I thought it was worth giving it a go - and it has definitely proved beneficial.

I've opted for a 100 page a month plan, which costs £3.49 a month. Up until now I was typically buying a set of ink cartridges twice a year, which cost about £65 a set - so as long as I don't exceed the limit overall, this means a very significant saving. I do occasionally go over 100 pages in a month as the graphic above from the HP control panel shows - but the system rolls over pages you don't use, so in practice I'm very unlikely to go into the excess, which is charged at £1 for every additional 15 pages.

What is particularly good is that the system works per page, not by amount of ink you use - so there's no need to be stingy about using colour. It has really opened up my use of colour printing, which used to be very tight as printing a page with a lot of colour ate up the colour cartridges.

One obvious worry is that you would run out of ink before HP sent any more. So far, they have been more than careful - I have plenty of spare cartridges waiting to be used. The printer keeps HP updated, so I don't need to request extra cartridges.

If you want to give it a go and have a suitable HP printer (you can check at the HP instant ink website) using that link gives both you and me a free month of ink. I really can't see any reason not to use it - I don't have to faff around ordering cartridges, I'm saving money and I can be more flamboyant with my printing. What's not to love?

Review - This is Not a Book about Charles Darwin

This has to be one of the most unusual books I've ever read. Historical fiction author and creative writing lecturer Emma Darwin takes us on the sometimes painful journey of failing to write a new novel. Along the way we meet many members of the Darwin / Wedgwood / Galton (and co.) clan as Emma (my apologies for using a first name, but to say 'Darwin' in this context would be totally confusing) tries to put together a historical fiction story that incorporates members of her family tree.

The obvious attraction for potential publishers and readers in such a novel is the Darwin name - Emma is great, great granddaughter of the Charles Darwin - however, she quickly dismisses Charles himself as a subject who is far too well known and takes us instead on a trip around a family tree that features a remarkable number of scientists, artists and other notables. In fact, if anything, it might seem that the struggle would be to find individuals who were dull. In reality, though, the difficulty that forms a thread throughout the book is that the well-known individuals (even featuring one of my musical heroes, Ralph Vaughan Williams) are just too familiar and documented, not giving the wiggle-room that a historical fiction writer needs, while the unfamiliar names tend to be rather, well, ordinary, without enough in their lives to carry a story.

As a writer myself, I find Emma's description of her process fascinating. There surely can't be any branch of fiction that requires so much research as historical fiction (though, to be fair, it seems that Emma is particularly conscientious about this - I suspect there are some hist fic authors who are more cavalier) - it feels more like the depth of research required for a non-fiction book. We are taken into the back room, as it were, experiencing the to and fro with Emma's agent (constantly asking where the story is within the writing), and the whole process is illustrated both with snippets of novel-under-development and photographs - mostly period - as photography is another of Emma's passions.

In the end, after several false starts, the central character seems to be likely to be Imogen, a fictional character (I think - I'll explain why 'I think' in a moment) who becomes entangled with the extended Darwin family. After attempts to make the novel work in various periods, this pushes the story forward to focus primarily on the 1930s. The fact that I have to say 'I think' about Imogen being fictional highlights the only real problem with this book. There are so many characters tried out that I totally lost track of who they are (not helped by a family tendency to reuse first names). At one point, Emma's agent complains about how many characters are introduced in a draft of the novel - it's the same for the meta-book.

Despite the degree of confusion arising from this, the reader gets a fascinating insight into a British dynasty in which pretty well everyone will have heard of a few names, combined with an exploration of Emma's writing process and some of the difficulties writers come up with along the way - including honesty about the requirement to keep money coming in somehow. There's a fascinating conflict between the urge to use the family to get the public interest and the desire not to intrude on real people's lives, especially as the time period moves to one where there may still be living relatives. A truly innovative book.

This is Not a Book about Charles Darwin  is available from Amazon.co.uk and Amazon.com

The BBC and anniversaryitis

Like most media outlets, the BBC is obsessed with anniversaries, but they've really stretched credulity with their latest - The Great British Menu features a banquet celebrating '150 years of children's literature' - which is clearly baloney (something I've never seen consumed on GBM).

I ought to say first of all that I'm a fan of the programme, not only because my illustrious Christmas University Challenge teammate, Matthew Fort is one of the judges. I'm not knocking the programme itself - I suspect this bizarrely arbitrary number was imposed by hierarchy (I can just imagine an episode of W1A when the planners meet and come up with this pseudo-anniversary).

Why is it baloney? Well, clearly children's literature is older than this. The Fairy Tales of the Brothers Grimm, which despite being distinctly dark were certainly intended for children (the original title was Children's and Household Tales) date back to 1812, over 200 years.

Ah, the BBC says, but we're talking books first published in English. Okay, well Alice's Adventures in Wonderland (amusingly featured in the publicity shot on the BBC's media website) was published in 1865, and that's 155 years ago - and it certainly wasn't the first.

Okay, the BBC comes back, but Oliver Twist was the first book with a child protagonist. Two problems with this. One is it's not children's literature - it was definitely written for an adult audience. And secondly it was published in book form in 1838. So it's the 182nd anniversary of that.

Fair enough, say the BBC, but Charles Dickens died in 1870, and that was 150 years ago. Well, yes. So really rather than celebrating 150 years of children's literature we are celebrating 150 years since the death of someone who didn't write children's literature.

Tongue removed from cheek, children's literature is a great topic for them to use as a theme - but I really wish they hadn't made up this totally spurious anniversary.

Cryptic challenge from the Conundrum Book site

Short of a cryptic challenge? I've launched a new bonus puzzle on the Conundrum book site - first 3 correct solutions submitted there (not here, please!) win a free copy of my ebook of mystery games, Organizing a Murder - Please share!

Review: The Nanny State Made Me - Stuart Maconie

I am a great fan of Stuart Maconie's UK travel/music industry books (I confess that, coming from Rochdale to his Wigan, he paints a picture I love). In many ways he has surpassed Bill Bryson, which is saying something. But the one thing I've never been comfortable with is his political alignment. If I position myself as closest to New Labour, he has always felt to the left of this. Of itself it's not a big issue, but I've particularly struggled with his romanticisation of the working class life.

My dad's parents were mill workers in Rochdale most of their lives (my grandad had to play professional cricket to make something to live on when they were laid off in the early 30s). And one thing they always stressed to me - the first in my family to go to university - was that they hadn't wanted the same life for my dad and me. They saw nothing romantic and noble in mill work - it was a means to live and no more.

It's not to say that I don't share Maconie's dislike of those who turn their noses up at Northerners or working class traditions and lifestyles. But it made me a bit wary of taking on this book (sorry it's taken me so long to mention the book). However, I shouldn't have been. It's a well-deserved counter to those who would pull apart the support net of the state. Maconie takes us through the NHS (of course), state schools, buses and trains, the dole, public utilities, public parks, the BBC and more. He's affectionate but never blinkered - happy to point out the failings of state-run organisations, but equally able to make it clear how the alternatives have proved worse.

I was surprised how often I was already aligned with his thinking, despite being to the right of him politically. It helps that he's prepared to actually think things through rather than react in a knee-jerk fashion. So, for example, rather than take the usual 'the BBC is inherently tied to the licence fee and to get rid of it would destroy it' approach many take, he admits to coming round to a subscription model because - paradoxically - it would free up the BBC to stop trying to be everything to everyone (and so putting out a lot of mediocre programming) and to concentrate on what it does best.

Where I hadn't seen eye-to-eye previously, Maconie mostly persuaded me to his viewpoint - which I found remarkable. For example, like him I am grammar school educated, but am totally in favour of comprehensives. But I'd always thought having private schools was an acceptable hat tip to choice, where Maconie makes very strong arguments as to why they should be at minimum relieved of their charitable status and preferably got rid of.

Another example of him winning me over is on re-nationalising the railways. Two things have always made me suspicious of this. I can remember how awful British Rail could be (where I quite like our local GWR franchise). And I worked for a nationalised company (BA) that went private and it was so much better after privatisation. But BA has real competitors on its routes to restrain its business practice, where the privatised railways don't. I can now see it just doesn't make sense to have private railways companies (or utilities for that matter).

A remarkable book, then. My only regret is that there isn't a bit more of the travel writing - Maconie manages to incorporate a bit, but not as much as I'd like. Since the political message is pretty much the same throughout, it can feel a little repetitive after a while. But this doesn't make it any less an excellent piece of writing - and especially telling at the time of reading when the virus crisis means that the state is having to play a very big part in all our lives. As I write, the Labour Party is about to elect a new leader. But they haven't got the right person standing. With Maconie in charge, they would be unbeatable.

The Nanny State Made Me is available from Amazon.co.uk and Amazon.com

Free Capel books on Kindle

At the moment, many of us have more time to fill than usual. I'd like to do my bit by offering my first three Capel murder mystery novels free to download on Kindle. I'm only allowed to do it for five days: they will be available to download from Tuesday 24 to Saturday 28 March 2020 inclusive. I've provided links below to download from Amazon.co.uk or Amazon.com. Enjoy - and feel free to mention this to anyone who might be interested.

Not got a Kindle? You can download a free Kindle reader for tablets, smartphones and computers.

A Lonely HeightWhen Stephen Capel moved to his first parish in a rural village after four years as a prison chaplain he expected a quiet life. Not to discover a drowned man in the ruined tower on top of Glastonbury Tor. Dealing with an increasingly complicated relationship with the local police, Capel begins to suspect that there is a link between this death and the murder of a famously eccentric photographer in Glastonbury Abbey the year before. His quest takes him to the sophisticated streets of Bath and up onto the ancient white horse at Uffington. In the end, though, it's Capel's understanding of people that will make or break the case.

The Stephen Capel Mysteries bring the classic British detective story into the twenty-first century.Download free from Amazon.co.uk

Download free from Amazon.com A Timely Confession In the sequel to A Lonely Height, we find Stephen Capel settled into his first parish in the village of Thornton Down.

As Christmas approaches, an unlikely confession of murder throws Capel into a complex and dangerous investigation. A software developer has been killed just before the launch of a make or break new product. While trying to help those left behind, Capel is pulled into the mystery of who really killed Mark Nelson. As Capel attempts to cope with an upheaval in his private life and to help those whose lives are torn apart by a second murder, he must search the snow-covered streets of Bath for answers before another victim dies.

Download free from  Amazon.co.uk

Download free from Amazon.com
A Spotless RoseIn the third in the series, vicar Stephen Capel is on his first holiday after joining his first parish in the village of Thornton Down. In Brighton with his girlfriend, Vicky Denning, Capel hopes to get away from it all. Taking a stroll on the beach, he sees a woman fall from the ruined pier. He rescues her, but discovers that she is dead - stabbed - and soon finds himself suspected of her murder. Each day, as Capel tries to untangle himself from suspicion, another woman dies. The race is on to prevent yet another death.
Download free from  Amazon.co.uk

Download free from Amazon.com

Review: Arriving Late at Wolf Hall

 I know practically everyone else in the world has already read Wolf Hall - but I've come late to the party. Oddly enough, the delay was primarily because it won the Booker Prize. That tends to label a book as literary fiction, and for me that all too often means pretentiousness and a book that is both miserable and a pain to read. However, I saw a review of Hilary Mantel's third book in the series which praised Wolf Hall for its humour. That pushed me over the edge - and I'm glad it did.

Admittedly I do enjoy pretty much anything Tudorbethan - it's my favourite musical period, the architecture's great and the whole Thomas Cromwell / Henry VIII / Church of England story is deeply fascinating. I had already read all of C. J. Sansom's Shardlake series set in the same time and place (for example, Lamentation ) and had loved those - and I had quite enjoyed the TV adaptation despite a few moans, though that wasn't as well endowed with humour as the book's marvellous dialogue. But Mantel won me over after a few pages. It is a remarkable book that deserves all the accolades it has, both in terms of the handling of story and bringing the period alive.

I'm no historian, so I don't know how accurate it is - but I get the impression it's not bad in this regard. I read somewhere that Mantel did away with the saintly image of Thomas More, though I think, to be fair, Josephine Tey had already done that to the limit in her fascinating if sometimes rather dull The Daughter of Time . More to the point, though, Wolf Hall is a wonderful novel.

I do have one issue I need to briefly moan about, which is perhaps the only way in which the author seems to have consciously attempted to be literary in her approach. She insists on referring to Cromwell as 'he', even when convention has it that 'he' should refer to the male person most recently mentioned. A classic example was 'Norfolk will preside. He will tell him how it will be.' That first 'he' is not Norfolk, but Cromwell. I lost count of the number of times I had to go back and re-read a paragraph to work out who 'he' was.

Moan over. Loved it. Having a break with a couple of other books (it was quite long), but then I'm diving into volume two.

If, like me, you are one of those rare people who hasn't read it, Wolf Hall is available from Amazon.co.uk and Amazon.com