Brian Clegg's Blog, page 125

Chopping logic

These are twins. The one on our left is older.I have had an interesting discussion with Paul Nahin, the author of The Logician and the Engineer, which I'm currently reading to review.

Nahin quotes a logic problem that is apparently well known amongst mathematicians. In it, one person is trying to guess the (integer) ages of the other's three daughters. He is given some information that allows him to narrow the possible ages down 1, 6 and 6 or 2, 2, and  9. Then the first gives an additional pieces of information. 'My oldest daughter,' he says, 'likes bananas.' Immediately the second person knows the girls' ages.
The accepted correct solution goes that the daughters can't be 1, 6 and 6 because there isn't an oldest daughter in this scenario, so our logician can deduce they are 2, 2 and 9. But I say that this is rubbish - at the very least poor logic.
Why? It is perfectly possible to have two six-year-old daughters born 10 months apart. Clearly one is older than the other. However even with twins, one is always older than the other for legal reasons. 
Prof. Nahin counters with two points. One is that integer ages were specified, and the other than this is a pure maths problem so legality doesn't enter into it.
I would say it doesn't matter about the 'integer' ages bit - both daughters have the integer age of six in both my counter examples. (And even if they literally had to be six that day, they could still be twins). As for the 'pure maths problem' argument, that doesn't hold up either. This clearly isn't a pure maths problem. It features a person liking bananas. Pure maths? I think not. It is an attempt to apply logic to a (admittedly rather odd) real world situation. In the real world it would be perfectly acceptable for the father to comment about his 'oldest daughter' even if the six-year-olds were twins, because she is accepted as such. As a father of twin daughters, I have done this.
If logic is being applied to a real world problem, I'd suggest it should take into account the way that the real world describes things.

Beating Andy Murray

There are all sorts of unlikely but possible things in life. I could win the lottery. one of my books could win a major prize... but there equally many things in life that are never going to happen. I'm not going to be king of England, I'm not going to play sport for my country and I'm never going to beat Andy Murray. At least that's what I thought.
However, I had a piece on 20 amazing human body science facts in the Observer on Sunday, and for some reason it caught the readers' imagination. On Monday morning it was pointed to me that it was the most viewed piece on the Guardian/Observer website. I pulled up the listing and there it was at the top. Above Andy Murray and his defeat, which was in second place.
By the time I grabbed the picture Murray had slipped out of the top six - but I did comfortably beat Andy Murray. And came higher in the charts than Justin Bieber.
I too have slipped off the list now - such is the inevitable fickle nature of news, but I do know that in those first couple of days, the article had more than three times as many page views as this blog has had in its entire lifetime.
And who said the press has no influence anymore?

The Music of Business

I don't usually do guest blogs, but I'm making an exception for Peter Cook. For nearly 20 years now, Peter has written, spoken and consulted about the parallels between the business universe and the world of music, be it rock, jazz, classical etc.  This follows his much longer involvement with three passions that have fuelled his career: Science, Business and Music.  We met when he hired me to speak on creativity and physics.  He recently completed his 5th book “The Music of Business”, acclaimed by Harvey Goldsmith. I asked him to explain more:

"The Music of Business” offers a carefully crafted cocktail of business intelligence, mixed with the wisdom of pop and rock’s monarchy.  I have a Slideshare presentation which gives a rapid overview of the book.  One way into understanding what the book is about is via some of the questions it attempts to address:
 What can you learn about creativity and innovation from The Beatles, David Bowie and a night at the opera?Can Jazz and structured improvisation help you succeed in a complex and changing business world? What can Lady Gaga teach you about business strategy and using social media to build a powerful and durable brand?What can Spinal Tap, Deep Purple and Led Zeppelin teach you about business strategy and project execution that a business school cannot? Can Britney Spears, Bill Nelson and The Kaiser Chiefs help you become a true learning company? The book has come from my career, which seems to rotate (accidentally) in 18 year cycles – almost Schumpeterian in nature!  I spent 18 years in Pharmaceutical Research and Development at the Wellcome Foundation, bring novel life-saving drugs to market and fixing factories around the world; 18 years working for Business Schools on MBA programmes and 18 years running my own business.  Along the way, I’ve played win a number of rock bands, which added “attitude” to my CV, performing with people such as Bernie Tormé, John Otway, Wilko Johnson, The Fall, Altered Images and Classix Nouveau to name a few.  It’s an unusual combination of deep industrial experience, supported by formal learning about business and management and less formal lessons from the school of hard rock.

In case anyone is in any doubt, the book has four solid business themes: Strategy; Creativity; Innovation and; Leadership of Change.  Each chapter offers a solid business idea, reinforced by bite sized examples of how such ideas work in business, using the musical concepts to help make the business pills go down better for longer lasting and better learning value.

Strategy is no longer just about rigid plans and Gantt charts to execute your strategies.  In a turbulent world, strategy is a continuous process of reconnaissance, involving colleagues, clients, customers and competitors.  Execution of strategy is also about responsiveness and the ability to change course in mid-stream, whilst avoiding being blown off course by the myriad of business fads that bedevil the business landscape these days.  We compare AC / DC with Radiohead and the Kaiser Chiefs in this respect, making connections with Unilever, Apple and many other business examples.  Failure is an instructive way of looking at strategy and we examine strategic mismanagement, along with a trip to the Opera to examine complex strategy execution where there is no room for error or failure.

In Creativity we look at examples of great improvisers such as Deep Purple, Joe Pass, US creativity specialist Michael Michalko and virtuoso jazz-fusion guitarist Scott McGill, drawing parallel business lessons out in each case.  We also compare the creative style of Hendrix versus Clapton.  We look at the importance of creativity principles and techniques via articles from The Beatles with parallel lessons from Proctor and Gamble, First Direct and others.  Punk rock offers a metaphor for disruptive thinking and we explore punk creativity via chapters on marketing and spontaneous thinking.

Under Innovation we address questions of individual personality via the examples of Marc Bolan, Steve Jobs and Richard Strange, the godfather of punk.  We also examine principles of business innovation, using the examples of The Velvet Underground and Andy Warhol, Prince, Lady Gaga, Dyson, Innocent Drinks and more.  Finally we explore the impact of the built and psychological environment on innovation using Stax Records and the experience of my hard rock friend Bernie Tormé, guitarist to Ozzy Osbourne and Ian Gillan.

Under Leadership we examine questions of stability and reinvention via Bill Nelson, leader of 70’s pop art group Be-Bop Deluxe and who reinvented himself at the expense of x-factor style popular acclaim.  We compare this with chameleons who have done the same thing but taken their audiences with them – Madonna, David Bowie, Nokia, Stora Enso et al.  Leaders need to have abilities to bounce back from setbacks, be sensitive to others but not overwhelmed by feedback and this part of the book has significant content from Professor Adrian Furnham, Punk folk group Chumbawumba, Britney Spears and Daniel Goleman.  Toyota is compared with Sony and Marks and Spencers, as a company that is responsive and adaptive compared with others that have nearly perished through their rigidity.

The most enjoyable part of writing this book was the day when I had a chance encounter with Harvey Goldsmith – I felt that it might be worth making an approach but, what do you say to start the conversation?  In the event I pointed out that I’d been to a lot of his ‘gigs’ but he had never showed up!  Against the advice of what many PR experts would have given, he laughed out loud and this resulted in getting his endorsement for the book.  It is the hallmark of all great people that they make time for others less important than themselves and make them feel like they are the only person in the room.  Harvey Goldsmith is a shining example of this.

The Music of Business is available (at bargain prices for business books) at Amazon.co.uk as a paperback and on Kindle, and at Amazon.com as a paperback and on Kindle, or alternatively via The Music of Business webpage.  Peter is also offering a free iPhone app with daily business tips on business in the same mode, available via the webpage.  Peter also has some Business meets Music events planned with HSBC.  These include a launch event aboard a ship with some very special rock star guests.

What's your best price?

If we can accept it's okay to use vouchers, why not haggle?British people are infamously bad at haggling. On the whole we tend to accept the price and just buy something - and yet all the evidence is, especially at tight times, that people who are selling goods and services are prepared to negotiate on price.

I've experienced this from both sides. When I give creativity training to a company I have a list price for my services, but I am well aware that some customers will discuss modifications to this. What surprises me is the ones that won't. I don't mean the companies who just pay up the full price - I have no objection to them, not surprisingly. I mean the ones who say 'Sorry, we won't be using you, you are too expensive,' who haven't even attempted to negotiate on price. This I really don't understand. When I was was at British Airways, our purchasing people where like razors. There is no way they would limply say 'Ooh, sorry, we can't afford that.' They would say 'Okay, how about doing it for free?' Admittedly they probably went a bit far, but at least they knew an unaffordable price is a starting point, not a reason not to do business.

As a purchaser, I have traditionally had certain categories of product and service where I expect to haggle. When I last bought a car, as I've mentioned before, I bought it primarily for one of my daughters from one of those car supermarket places. I have never paid full price for a car, and they were adamant they never drop the price. In the end we bought it (with some free mats thrown in because the manager realized he had to salve my pride) - but only because it was for my daughter who loved the car. If I had been buying for me I would have walked out. They couldn't believe I was prepared to drop the sale because they wouldn't budge - but I so wanted to.

Similarly I would expect to negotiate on price when buying tyres. The last time I did, I must admit I said to them 'I could phone around and get a better price and come back to you, but to avoid wasting our time, how much can you drop that price?' Quite a lot, apparently. I also do it when buying office stationery. But. There are lots of purchase where I don't haggle.

I can't quite believe it, but according to one of those money saving websites, even supermarkets will haggle over 50% of the time. (I can't imagine this is for a pound of onions - I assume it's if you are buying a big ticket item.) I really must try harder.

One of the problems is that the interface with the shop or service provider doesn't always support haggling. I love buying things online, but have to face up to a lack of a haggle box, where you put in the price you are prepared to pay and it comes back with a compromise. (Please, internet shopping software providers, we need haggle boxes! It would make the experience so much more fun.) And in many chain stores you are served by a 16-year-old who a) doesn't know what haggling is and b) has no authority to do so. So you have to find a manager and it's all a bit painful and embarrassing.

However, I really think it's something we could do much more. Vouchers have become socially acceptable these days. No one raises an eyebrow if you produce your 20% of voucher in Chiquitos or wherever. (And if you ever eat in a chain restaurant without getting a voucher first, you have money to burn.) You would be mad to buy anything from Dell without hunting down a voucher. This acceptance that saving money is not, somehow, bad form should spread to the way we purchase things more generally. Haggling is part of business - and it makes you feel great when you achieve a saving. It's mano a mano, facing up to an opponent and bringing home the bacon.

Feel the haggling force, people. Feel the haggling force.

It's a blitz

At Christmas, my niece bought us a card game. Now I love my niece dearly, and she usually has exquisite taste, but this time I thought she had blown it. We aren't great game players, and I thought this was going to be something that was quietly put away and ignored. And such would be the case if we hadn't thankfully been forced to play the game with my brother and sister in law (who also received one). And it was brilliant. I can honestly say I haven't enjoyed a game as much for years. It's quick, fun and simple.

The game is called Dutch Blitz. Apparently it's not easy to get in the UK, but well worth tracking down. In essence it is a bit like each player is undertaking a shared game of patience/solitaire. That sounds deadly dull - but the competitive aspect makes it fast, furious and wonderful.

Unfortunately the printed rules are quite hard to take in - the actual game play is a lot simpler than the sheet seems to suggest. We were lucky as we got the simplified explanation and didn't have to work it out ourselves. But I can assure you that it is well worth fighting past those instructions to play.

You can play with two to four players (more if you get extension packs) - I think it's best with four, where  you get more pressure than two, as you are trying to follow what everyone is doing simultaneously.

It is really hard to describe how enjoyable it is. An indication is what happened on New Year's Eve. We tend to see in the New Year, then go to bed pretty soon after. But we had been playing Dutch Blitz up to 11.30 and decided we just had to go back to it... and were still playing at 3am.

So even if you don't really like games I would encourage you to track down Dutch Blitz. It's brilliant. If you fancy it, it is available in the UK on Amazon, but you can get it at half the price (don't ask why) from this motor parts shop. You can also find out more on the official site - including seeing the rules... but remember actually playing it is much simpler than the way they describe it!

The socket is the new black

I quite regularly drive two cars - a VW Golf Plus and a Vauxhall Corsa. In principle the Golf should win on everything. It's more comfortable, it has considerably better acceleration and it is better made. However give me the choice (which I don't often get as I share the Corsa with daughter #1) and I will go for the Corsa almost every time.

The reason is ridiculously trivial at first sight. The Corsa has a better sound system. It produces better quality sound - more bass and treble - but most significantly of all it has an 'aux' socket to plug in an MP3 player. The Golf doesn't. We have one of those radio transmitter workarounds in the VW - but it's not the same by a long way, especially if you want to play classical music, which is typically recorded at significantly lower levels, so gets a lot more interference when you blast the audio up to an appropriate level.

These days I tend to stare at the CD slot in a car's audio system in bemusement, trying to remember what it's for. We do still get CDs - I had 12 as presents at Christmas - but once they have been imported into iTunes they go on the shelf as backup.

I think I can honestly say that whether or not I can connect my phone to play music would now be a make or break when we next buy a car - about the same level as 'does it have a heater' and slightly above 'does it have air conditioning.' If car manufacturers are still making cars without the appropriate socket, they are, frankly, stupid. It isn't a luxury. It isn't an add-on. It's a basic now as far as in-car entertainment is concerned.

The Silent Spring dilemma

I was listening to a programme on the radio the other day about Rachel Carson, arguably one of the founders of the environmental movement, whose 1960s book Silent Spring had such a huge influence, particularly on the banning of DDT. The programme was little short of a hagiography. You would not think, listening to it, that there was any controversy about Carson's influence - yet some would say that she was responsible for millions of deaths.

There is no doubt at all that the way DDT was being used in some countries when Carson wrote her book - in America in particular - was wrong. This potent compound was being sprayed in a blanket fashion as an agricultural pesticide and was causing much damage to the environment and quite possibly to people. This was, without doubt, dire - and Carson did the world a favour by pointing out the terrible consequences, like the eponymous idea of killing the birds and producing a 'silent spring.'

However, it is also true that used in a controlled fashion, targeted on areas where mosquitoes breed, DDT was a very effective way of reducing the spread of malaria. Had it not been banned, a ban instituted in large part as a reaction to Silent Spring, and had it been used in an appropriately controlled way, there would have been millions of lived saved.

This Silent Spring dilemma illustrates the biggest problem the traditional green movement has. It is often based on knee-jerk reactions to words and concepts. Natural good; artificial bad. Chemical bad (forgetting that every substance we eat, drink and breathe is made of chemicals). Organic good, intensive bad. Burning wood good, using nuclear power bad. And, in this case, pesticide very bad. If we really want to be green and be rational we need to think through the implications of words in context, not just react to the words themselves. Most things are good in some circumstances and bad in others. Often it's a case that doing something to excess is bad, while doing it in a controlled way is good.

The devil is in the detail. Unless we can get down to that detail and really understand the science that often lurks behind it, we will be like people who respond to advertising and marketing, rather than understanding what's really good for us. And surely an ignorant, marketing-led response not the right way to be green?

This has been a green heretic production.

Two nations divided

This is NOT a napkinAs an Englishman* who quite often writes for an American publisher I am all too aware of the way we are indeed two nations divided by a common language. To be fair, modern media has weakened this significantly. We all know over here what an American means when she refer to an elevator, and even cope with the confusion over purses, vests, suspenders and pants. Similarly, I gather from articles in the US press, that some quaint English English terms like loo and saying 'cheers' for goodbye have become more familiar that side of the Atlantic. Even so, I do occasionally make a slip.

A while ago, for example, I was referring to the peculiarity of action at a distance. The idea that you can make something happen remotely without anything passing from A to B is a difficulty that underlies some of the confusion caused by quantum theory, and was why Newton got so much stick for his work on gravitation. I said that we expect something to travel from A to B to make something happen. For instance, in a coconut shy, we expect to have to throw a ball at the coconut, rather than just look at it and make it fall off its stand. 'A coconut WHAT???' said my US editor. In the book it ended up as having to throw a stone to knock a can (not a tin, of course) off a wall.

Even those who are experts can get caught out with subtle differences of meaning. I remember being most amused a number of years ago by a book by an American expert on international business. The topic of the book was not making errors by using words and methods that weren't appropriate in a foreign country. He gave the example of an American opening a restaurant chain in England. 'You must make sure,' he said, 'that you call the napkins "serviettes". In England, a napkin is the word for a diaper.'

UK readers will get why this is so wrong. For US readers, we actually call a diaper a 'nappy' over here. Although that word is derived from napkin we would never call a diaper a 'napkin'. In fact in UK English, napkin is the more proper word for a napkin (well, duh) - 'serviette' (the French word) is considered rather common, a bit like saying 'john' or 'can' rather than 'bathroom'.


*I don't know why, but I get a buzz from referring to myself as 'an Englishman.' Perhaps it's something to do with Sting's song, An Englishman in New York.

Rust - pretty unpopular

My latest podcast for the Royal Society of Chemistry takes a look at a compound that doesn't have many of us cheering - in fact it's pretty unpopular all round. I'm talking about rust. We may rather like the fetching patina of some metal oxides, but no one cheers when rust appears - especially if it's on a car.

Even so, that doesn't mean that rust isn't interesting stuff from the chemical viewpoint. Quite the reverse. So pop along to the RSC compounds site - or if you've five minutes to spare, click to to have a listen to my podcast on rust.

Walk away from the Sony

Want one of these? Resist the urge..I think Sony has taken a significant business opportunity of becoming a big player in small e-devices and has managed to turn it into a disaster.

Let me explain. I used to be a regular buyer of Sony products. I've had a Walkman, TVs, a VCR (remember those), a laptop... but I would never buy one of Sony's small electronic devices post-Walkman because they made a fundamental error of judgement. They made it 'our way or not at all.'

I have never had a Sony video camera or digital camera. Why? Because they insist on using their own memory card format that's incompatible with everyone else's. And when you come to connect the device to your computer you can't just drag and drop files, you have to use their proprietary, slow and clunky PC software to communicate with the device. The same goes for their music players. Hopelessly  crippled by the truly awful associated software you are forced to use. And as for their ebook readers... you get the picture. (It's also true that Sony's seems the least supported ebook format in terms of new book releases these days.)

But am I not being hypocritical? Don't my iPhone and iPad also use proprietary and slow software on the computer? There's a big difference though. If yours is the dominant environment (as with iTunes) or if you have software that is built in with the operating system (like iTunes or Windows Media Player on Macs and PCs respectively) it's fine to expect us to use it. But when you are only an aspiring small fry it doesn't work to try to impose your 'standard'.

I think the trouble is that Sony were so used to being dominant with the Walkman that they assumed they were top dog in other parallel small electronics markets as well. At risk of mixing the animal metaphors, Sony was so used to being a big fish that it forgets that in this particular pond it is down with the minnows. And that has led to a fall.

If they haven't already, Sony should drop the proprietary formats, lose their awful software and get in with the masses before it's too late. We all know it makes sense.

But does Sony?