Carley Garner's Blog: What's new on DeCarleyTrading.com, page 39
February 7, 2017
Commodity Option Selling: Quality over Quantity
Futures option sellers must choose between low probability yet high-risk event exposure, or high probability yet lower-risk exposureWhen: Thursday, February 23rd @ 4:30 pm Eastern
Click here to register for this FREE futures trading webinar!
When it comes to selling options on futures, there are several trading strategies that accomplish the goal of premium collection; However, not all market approaches come with the same risks, even if the reward is similar. For instance, a trader wishing to collect $1,000 in premium could sell a single option relatively close-to-the-money (the strike price of the option is near the current futures price), or he could sell ten deep-out-of-the-money options for $100 each. The reward is the same, but the risk is far different in regard frequency and magnitude. Join experienced futures and options broker, Carley Garner, to discuss the characteristics of each approach to option selling.
February 2, 2017
Speculators are as short Treasuries as they have been in years, are they right?
We all know the case for being a Treasury bear; the arguments for higher interest have been vigorously circulating rates for years. For instance, a plethora of articles have been written discussing the assumption that years of unprecedented money printing by the Fed will eventually catch up to us in the form of inflation. In turn, investors have been inaccurately expecting this to force bond prices dramatically lower.
Others claim interest rates can’t stay historically discounted because the cure for low prices is always low prices. In other words, low yields should discourage investors from putting money to work in Treasuries and the lack of demand should deflate bond prices while inflating interest rates. Yet, neither of these nor the dozens of other, premises touted by Treasury bears have yet to materialize. Further, each time traders have acted aggressively on such ideas they have been burned by the new reality of lower for longer interest rates. Let’s take a look at a few developments that suggest the path of least resistance for US-backed Treasuries is higher, not lower. Likewise, yields could move lower, not higher.
January 25, 2017
Our Crude Oil Futures Analysis was Featured on Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer
"While the oil producers will definitely benefit from deregulation and the approval of new pipelines, the actual outlook for the price of oil is more murky," - Jim Cramer
To gain further insight, Cramer turned to Carley Garner, a technician, and experienced futures broker. She is also the founder of DeCarley Trading and is a colleague of Cramer's at RealMoney.com.
January 20, 2017
We are getting mixed signals in our crude oil futures market analysis
We are seeing mixed signals in Texas Tea
There is always some uncertainty involved in crude oil market analysis, yet in the current environment, I would argue there is only uncertainty. We like to look utilize a handful of market analysis tools which generally include seasonal tendencies, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) Commitments of Traders Report (COT), and technical analysis. Each of these schools of thoughts are resulting in conflicting conclusions. Historical seasonal patterns suggest the path of least resistance during this time of year is higher (bullish). On the other hand, the COT Report warns of a potentially massive wave of speculator liquidation (bearish). Adding to the confusion, the price of crude oil as deemed by prominent chart analysis techniques is precisely neutral.
January 13, 2017
Dukascopy TV and Tracy DeCarlo chat soybean futures
Transcript of the interview of Tracy DeCarlo, a commodity broker with DeCarley Trading, and Celest Skinner of DukascopyTV!
1. 2016 saw an overall disappointing year for Soybeans, as supply outweighed demand. Do you see this issue carrying over into 2017?
If there is one thing I’ve learned while following the grain markets, it is that the slate is wiped clean each year in regards to supply and demand fundamentals. Surprise changes in weather can dramatically alter yield in the blink of an eye and demand can quickly shift to alternative products or at the hands of economic changes. Thus, we are looking at 2017 in a new light. A dismal as the soybean market appears at the moment, we can’t forget that in January and February of last year prices were hovering in the $9.00 per bushel area but by mid-summer prices were approaching $12.00. This was a 35% bump in prices despite questionable fundamentals.
2. James Cordier, president and head trader of OptionSellers.com said they expect corn and soybeans to have a "20 to 25 percent rally this year." Where does your sentiment for the Soybeans market sit this year?
We tend to agree with Mr. Cordier. Much of the weakness we’ve seen in the grain complex is due to the stronger dollar. However, we tend to believe the upside in the dollar could be limited to the 1.05 area. If so, this should eventually provide support to markets like corn and soybeans and hopefully, open the door for a rally. Our friends at MRCI have pointed out that the May soybean futures contract tends to move higher from late January through early March. Specifically, a trader buying May soybean futures on the 28th of January and selling on the 4th of March would have been successful about 87% of the time over the previous 15 occasions. In other words, once we get beyond the January USDA Report, the best trades could be from the long side in late January.
3. Weather worries in both Brazil and Argentina at the beginning of this week saw futures settle 1% higher, how long do you see this bullish trend lasting?
Weather is almost always temporary and markets generally overshoot the true significance of a weather impact. In our opinion, the weather in South America was a good excuse for a short covering rally, but we aren’t convinced the market will be able to put together a sustainable rally until we see what the USDA has to say about the world supply and demand picture on January 12th and possibly even as late as the February 9th report.
4. For this year ahead what do you think is the biggest threat to Soybeans?
We believe the US dollar will be the key to 2017 in all of the grain markets. If the dollar index traded on the ICE exchange breaks above 1.05 it could be a game changer for the grain market bulls. If it holds, as we suspect, it should offer a floor to pricing. One thing is for sure, it is going to be an exciting year in the commodity markets.
January 11, 2017
Higher Probability Commodity Trading Top Rated Options Trading Book!
Click here to buy this best selling book on commodity trading!!
January 6, 2017
Carley Garner was recently interviewed in regards to trading technology
Best Choice Software recently checked in with Carley to get her trading insight. Here’s what she shared:
Can you talk about your background and interest in trading?
My original intention was to be a stock broker or financial advisor, but with ETFs emerging and failure for me to see value in high-load mutual funds, I felt like I wanted to go in another direction. I opted for the road less traveled, and I’m grateful I was willing to take the plunge. I jumped into the commodity futures and options industry with both feet in 2004 after graduating from college and never looked back.
The commodity markets are exciting, but they are also treacherous. This is particularly true for those who fail to prepare for the volatility or have a tendency to abuse leverage. Accordingly, I’ve made it a point to provide a plethora of educational material for traders aimed at encouraging them to reduce leverage and risk as a means of increasing the odds of success in trading.
What are the most important lessons you’ve learned during your time as a trader?
There are no shortages of valuable lessons taught by the markets, but the most valuable lesson I’ve learned is that it is better to be on the sidelines wishing I was in the market than in the market wishing I was on the sidelines. In short, it is far less painful to miss a trade than it is to enter a market prematurely. In order to keep destructive emotions at bay, it is imperative to remain patient.
Click here to read the full interview!
January 4, 2017
DeCarley Trading is honored to be nominated for an award on the Futures.io trading forum!
Please take a few seconds to cast a vote for our brokerage service in both the "Futures Broker of the Year" and "Options Broker of the Year" categories, click here to vote!
We work extremely hard to provide our clients with the best possible trading environment for their needs and are ecstatic to be recognized for our efforts!
*Only registered users of the forum may vote. If you are not yet a member, this is a great source of trading support for traders of all types and sizes.
December 27, 2016
Gold futures could find footing in 2017
"Gold is an emotional market, no matter what happens in 2017 we are likely to see plenty of action in Gold." - Carley Garner, DeCarley Trading.
December 20, 2016
Complimentary video: Trading Commodities Like a Girl
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