We are getting mixed signals in our crude oil futures market analysis

Published in: DeCarley Perspective ArchivesThis newsletter was distributed to DeCarley Trading brokerage clients on January 20, 2017.

 

We are seeing mixed signals in Texas Tea

There is always some uncertainty involved in crude oil market analysis, yet in the current environment, I would argue there is only uncertainty. We like to look utilize a handful of market analysis tools which generally include seasonal tendencies, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) Commitments of Traders Report (COT), and technical analysis. Each of these schools of thoughts are resulting in conflicting conclusions. Historical seasonal patterns suggest the path of least resistance during this time of year is higher (bullish). On the other hand, the COT Report warns of a potentially massive wave of speculator liquidation (bearish). Adding to the confusion, the price of crude oil as deemed by prominent chart analysis techniques is precisely neutral.