Michal

“If you have to plan for a future beyond the forecasting horizon, plan for surprise. That means, as Danzig advises, planning for adaptability and resilience.”
― Philip Tetlock, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

“Ignoring the vices of our friends and the virtues of our enemies sets us up for nasty surprises.”
― Philip E. Tetlock, Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?

“Critical thinking is an active and ongoing process. It requires that we all think like Bayesians, updating our knowledge as new information comes in.”
― Daniel J. Levitin, A Field Guide to Lies: Critical Thinking in the Information Age

“Ever since Roberta Wohlstetter’s pathbreaking study of why the United States was taken by surprise at Pearl Harbor 50 years ago, both academics and members of the Intelligence Community (IC) have made significant progress in understanding intelligence failures. About how to correct these errors and do better we know much less, however, and it is to this subject that this volume makes a major contribution. --Foreword to Cases in Intelligence Analysis: Structured Analytic Techniques in Action”
― Robert Jervis