If you're not in the U.S., what's up in your part of the world? Showing 2,151-2,200 of 3,266

[J.]

China's first population drop in six decades sounds alarm on demographic crisis
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/c...

[Papaphilly]

Ian wrote: "It appears Chris Hipkins will be the new PM. He was generally considered as the fixit guy. He was the only one who put his name forward, so there was no vote."

Nobody else wants the job?

[Papaphilly]

J. wrote: "China's first population drop in six decades sounds alarm on demographic crisis
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/c..."

As I have been saying the entire time, their demographics are working against them.

[Ian]

Papaphilly wrote: "Ian wrote: "It appears Chris Hipkins will be the new PM. He was generally considered as the fixit guy. He was the only one who put his name forward, so there was no vote."

Nobody else wants the job?"

There may be an element of truth in that, but they also know that if there were to be a contest there would be the requirement for the various contenders to explain why they are better. The last thing they need right now is ammunition handed to the opposition for free this close to an election. Amongst other things, a number of them would lose their seats. The way the polls are, if everything went along the same way, they would no longer be government, so someone has to change something. The problem is, if the changes don't work, whoever takes the job won't last long.

As it happens, Hipkins seems to recognize this, so there may also be the possibility that he is seen by most of them as the best man for the job. Thanks to being the Covid spokesperson, he has had far more public exposure than anyone else (not counting Ardern) and it has been favourable exposure.

[Scout]

Ian, something you said struck a chord with me: "They also create more massive bureaucracy, yet the general feeling right now is the bureaucracy we have has become bloated and dysfunctional under this government." I feel that way about what Democrats are doing here. I hope this new guy straightens things out for you.

[Ian]

I hope so too, Scout, but I am not too hopeful. Bureaucracies seem to be like a fungus - they keep sprouting up all over the place where you don't need them.

[Papaphilly]

Ian wrote: "I hope so too, Scout, but I am not too hopeful. Bureaucracies seem to be like a fungus - they keep sprouting up all over the place where you don't need them."

You sure you are not living in the U.S.?

[Ian]

Fairly sure, and fairly sure we have said fungus.

[Ian]

For those who do not believe in climate change, we are having a difficult summer. A weather system the likes we have never seen before is channeling hot moist air from equatorial regions over the Coral Sea and down to us. Weather systems are moving North - South instead of the usual West - East. The last two weather systems have brought something like 6 months of rain in 3 weeks to the top of the North Island, with up to 3 inches per hour. Auckland has about 20,000 serious insurance claims already, and almost certainly not the capacity to fix things. Streets in low-lying areas had water neck-high, with cars floating around. Presumably this would not be good for electric cars.

Meanwhile, in places at the bottom of the South Island they have drought - almost no rain during the summer as they are sheltered from these systems by the Southern Alps. This is suggestive that some of you might have a different summer in a few months.

[J.]

I quick look at what the future has in store for the global economy.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=bhGb-BaGw...

[Ian]

Interesting link;. Not sure where he thinki the world economy is going, though.

[Nik]

J. wrote: "I quick look at what the future has in store for the global economy.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=bhGb-BaGw..."

I think he exaggerates the influence of the political establishment on the globalization phenomenon and presents it as a cognizant policy. I think it was driven by people and mainly corporations, while political establishment played only a secondary role. Security arrangements are part of westernization and easternization, but not of globalization. However, I agree with the conclusion that globalization is incompatible with differing mentality and will subside in the short-medium term

[Scout]

I agree that the climate is changing. We used to have spring here in April: now it's in February. I wonder, though, if there are other more practical things that can be done without the abrupt curtailing of fossil fuels. We do still need them, as most cars still use them, as well as jets and military vehicles. And what about petroleum byproducts? Plastics are made from petrochemicals. Many everyday things we use are made from petroleum byproducts: nylon and polyester clothes, lipstick, deodorant, pacemakers, lubricants, waxes, tars and asphalt for our roads. Maybe we can do without some of these things, but not all. Has government seriously explored carbon capturing or retrofitting coal plants so that they have lower carbon emissions?

[J.]

From our British cousins:

Woodburning stove could leave you with a £300 penalty or criminal record under new regulations - is yours going to land you with a fine?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...

[Nik]

It might be going the same direction here too. Read that our council won’t be issuing building permits where wood burning 🔥 stoves are involved hope to be able to use mine for some time still

[Papaphilly]

Nik wrote: "J. wrote: "I quick look at what the future has in store for the global economy.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=bhGb-BaGw..."

I think he exaggerates the influence of the political e..."

Ian wrote: "Interesting link;. Not sure where he thinki the world economy is going, though."

There is lots more to this guy than one YouTube video. He is a respected geopoliticist and uses plenty of demographic work for his predictions. I am no so bullish as he is on the world changing tomorrow, but there are long term trends that I think he has nailed.

[J.]

Peter Zeihan
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Z...
https://youtube.com/@ZeihanonGeopolit...

[J.]

Nik,

The modern global economy exists in large part because since WWII the US Navy has secured the global shipping lanes.

The ideal force for doing that is a large number of cruisers and destroyers. During the War on Terror, we pursued that by commissioning and committing to sea trials on the Zumwalt class destroyers. Since our draw downs began, we have abandoned the Zumwalt class.

Where we are focusing, now, is on the larger Gerald R. Ford class carriers and the soon to begin Columbia class boomers. These ships are built for large scale conflicts, not chasing down pirates and suicide bombers in boats.

We have chosen this type of force disposition because we are tired of being the Policeman of the World. The American public is entering a more isolationist frame of mind.

[Ian]

Scout wrote: "I agree that the climate is changing. We used to have spring here in April: now it's in February. I wonder, though, if there are other more practical things that can be done without the abrupt curt..."

Scout, part of my life has been involved in research on biofuels and related sources. It may be difficult to totally replace oil, so there is a place for electric as well, but consider this.
All waste plastics can be converted to liquid fuel
The organic fraction of municipal waste can. Here, I did a survey back in the 1980s and the refuse of a family of four could produce about 8 gallons a week
All the forestry slash can be converted,
All the microalgae that grows in sewage treatment can be converted to diesel
In the 1970s the US Navy learned how to grow Macrocystis on rafts in open ocean - that can be converted to liquid fuel.

The Germans made about a million tοnne per year by hydrogenation of lignite - a more difficult feedstock during WW II.

It can be done, BUT the fuel (except maybe from rubbish) will always be more expensive than from oil pumped from the ground (unless that starts to run dry). So while we learned much of the basics of how to do it, we have since forgotten most of what we learned.

[Nik]

J. wrote: "....We have chosen this type of force disposition because we are tired of being the Policeman of the World. The American public is entering a more isolationist frame of mind...."

Yes, I've noticed. I don't think it'll hold for long as the States will be downgraded in their former areas of influence and they wouldn't want to lose much of the world (in terms of influence) to China.

[J.]

What vicious god would mix mercy and cruelty so freely?
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/w...

[Nik]

Yes, large scale natural cataclysms often combine both

[Scout]

Thanks for thinking about this with me, Ian. Aren't there avenues for decreasing the effects of fossil fuels on the environment without doing away with them completely, as our president seems to be intent on doing? Can't we still use oil and gas and coal and mitigate the effects on the environment?

[Ian]

Scout wrote: "Thanks for thinking about this with me, Ian. Aren't there avenues for decreasing the effects of fossil fuels on the environment without doing away with them completely, as our president seems to be..."

Of course. Biofuels will help, but they are no silver bullet. In the immediate period, oil will be critical because it takes quite a lot of time to get alternatives even starting. I don't think most people realize just how much oil is burnt every day. Further, I think most people have no idea what will be involved in changing from what has powered our economy for over 150 years. But equally, while it will take a very long time to build up the alternatives, that is not a reason not to start now. The first technologies will need quite a bit of fiddling. We might be able to get oil, but with some effort we can improve the efficiency, but we need to get started before thinking of improvements.

[J.]

Ian, is New Zealand exploring novel biofuels?

Huge haul of cocaine floating at sea seized
https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/09/asia/n...

[Ian]

Probably not because Hipkins has cancelled Ardern's tax concession for biofuels.

However, it looks as if the police and coastguard are making progress on dealing to the drugs trade.

[Ian]

Gabrielle turned out to be a less than friendly visitor. Never more than category 3, she was "degraded" to "ex-", yet she produced winds of 140 k (near the top of category 3). What "degraded" seems to mean is, "get fatter". Where I am we had winds of only 200 k, but about 700 km from the "eye". In places closer to the eye, about a third of a meter of rain fell in 24 hr. Given this is the third such event to hit us so far this year the ground has been sodden before it started. A number of towns in the hillier regions have been isolated as roads, electricity and communications have simply been washed away or have slipped downhill. Tens of thousands of people have their homes now declared unlivable, at east until major repairs are made, and there is a serious labour shortage to do repairs. This will take some time for some to recover from

[J.]

Ian,

How's it going? I saw that y'all just had an earthquake on top of the typhoon.

[Ian]

Yes, a 6.1, not that far from where I live. I had Horatio (my cat) on my lap while watching TV, and the quake got his attention. Not sure where he went because we are still getting the tail of Gabrielle and outside is very unpleasant.

As for me, as far as I can tell, no real problems. Gabrielle stripped the fruit from my pear tree and they are not ripe yet, but compared to others, this is trivial. There is probably detritus in the gutters but I don't feel like going outside in the wind, which while calmer, is still strong (I would guess down to 80 k). I went to buy groceries this morning and saw umbrellas from pedestrians inside out. The fruit and vegetable lines are not well-stocked, and I had to get some frozen stuff.

[J.]

I'm glad you're doing OK. Hopefully, your cat will show back up soon.

[Papaphilly]

Ian,

Take care of yourself. We have plenty of disagreeing to do...8^)

[Ian]

J. wrote: "I'm glad you're doing OK. Hopefully, your cat will show back up soon."

I am writing this standing up. Horatio is fast asleep on my computer chair.

[Ian]

Papaphilly wrote: "Ian,

Take care of yourself. We have plenty of disagreeing to do...8^)"

Can't disagree with the first sentiment, but I am sure we can find something to disagree with soon :-)

[Scout]

Great that Horatio is safe.

[Ian]

Scout wrote: "Great that Horatio is safe."

Thanks Scout, but he would argue there was never any doubt :-) He is a crafty cat.

[Nik]

Ian takes floods, typhons, quakes, inflation and Ardern on the chin, inspired by Horatio. The only soft spot or Achilles heel is putler's mishaps in Ukraine :)

[Nik]

Added a few photos from protests in Jerusalem, which I frequent, to the group's gallery. No, we haven't broken into the Knesset yet, but it feels like the pressure is rising...

[Ian]

The news here is rather difficult to follow, but it seems Bibi is trying to change the power of the court system. Is that so, and if so, can he succeed?

[Nik]

Ian wrote: "The news here is rather difficult to follow, but it seems Bibi is trying to change the power of the court system. Is that so, and if so, can he succeed?"

Yes, the judicial branch of power is independent now, but he wants to subject it through controlling appointment of judges and abridging courts' powers. Some say it would be the end of democracy, when legislative, executive and judicial branch become subordinate to one. Is it random that he's being tried on 3 charges? He has a majority in the legislative, so he'll push it, although formally he can't intervene because of the conflict of interests. We are heading towards a full blown constitutional crises and maybe a civil confrontation as hundred thousands people openly protest these changes. Judicial system needs reform but not a destruction. Hope for a compromise, although there is little room for optimism.

[Ian]

All I can say is, good luck. You guys might need it. The courts have to be independent or you end up with dictatorship.

[Nik]

Reflects our predicament:

https://www.ft.com/content/d17b872f-1...
Some predict that the Supreme Court will strike the reform down and then, I’m afraid , the violence will erupt

[Ian]

As I said, you will need good luck. It most certainly is a predicament. I suppose you could say that through democracy the people that voted for Bibi and others asked for it, but I suspect they did not really expect this.

[Nik]

The polls reflect that most of Bibi’s own party supporters: a) didn’t expect it; b) oppose it

[Ian]

That is a common problem with elections. We have had a couple of elections where the winner virtually did the opposite of what they campaigned on, although nothing quite like attacking the court system.

[Scout]

Bad idea to subvert the power of the judicial branch. I get why people are upset -- I would be. It will be worth violent protests to protect freedom. Keep us informed.

[J.]

Central banks try to calm markets after UBS deal to buy Credit Suisse
https://www.reuters.com/business/crun...

[Ian]

But 17 bln wiped out for bond holders :-(

[Ian]

I gave a hint that we have problems here. The usual political process here is that when the government wants to introduce legislation that would make a significant change, it announces its intention, provides a draft of what it is going to do, and invites submissions to be read by a select committee, in short people have a say. Whether the politicians take any notice is another matter, but with everything being done in the open if they do not take notice, they have to face the population at the next election.

Last year they introduced at least three major changes just before Christmas, and closed the date for submissions to the likes of early february, in short the time for submitting was while everyone was on summer holiday. My guess is the election this year will be interesting

[Scout]

That's not good. Par for the course with politicians, though The question is, what can you do about it? If the answer is nothing, then something is way wrong with government.

[Ian]

The usual answer is we can turf them out in the next election, and here I am reasonably convinced that will happen. The problem is, we then get them replaced with different politicians who are not necessarily an improvement.