“Aristotle observed, pure logic won’t suffice on its own because some links in the chain are missing or uncertain. But he offered the advice that “we should also base our arguments upon probabilities as well as upon certainties,” 2 and this could still constitute an appeal to good reason, since “the true and the approximately true are apprehended by the same faculty; it may also be noted that men have a sufficient natural instinct for what is true, and usually do arrive at the truth. Hence the man who makes a good guess at truth is likely to make a good guess at probabilities.” 3”
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Aubrey Clayton,
Bernoulli's Fallacy: Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science