Bernoulli's Fallacy Quotes

“something being “exceptionally rare” doesn’t necessarily mean it’s interesting, nor should we necessarily count it as strong evidence of anything. Exceptionally rare chances occur constantly, and the mere fact of their rarity may have absolutely no bearing on what conclusions we draw from having witnessed them.”
― Aubrey Clayton, Bernoulli's Fallacy: Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science

“Aristotle observed, pure logic won’t suffice on its own because some links in the chain are missing or uncertain. But he offered the advice that “we should also base our arguments upon probabilities as well as upon certainties,” 2 and this could still constitute an appeal to good reason, since “the true and the approximately true are apprehended by the same faculty; it may also be noted that men have a sufficient natural instinct for what is true, and usually do arrive at the truth. Hence the man who makes a good guess at truth is likely to make a good guess at probabilities.” 3”
― Aubrey Clayton, Bernoulli's Fallacy: Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science

“The suggestion that the fundamental logic underlying these methods is broken should be terrifying.”
― Aubrey Clayton, Bernoulli's Fallacy: Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science

“The Romans had their aleae, rudimentary tetrahedral dice made from the ankle bones of sheep, as memorialized in Julius Caesar’s declaration upon crossing the Rubicon: “Alea iacta est.” (The die is cast.) The”
― Aubrey Clayton, Bernoulli's Fallacy: Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science

“So, if it’s not actually probable that the true value of a parameter is contained within a given confidence interval, why report it? If it’s not actually highly probable that the null hypothesis is false, why reject it?”
― Aubrey Clayton, Bernoulli's Fallacy: Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science