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“Often, I cannot explain a certain move, only know that it feels right, and it seems that my intuition is right more often than not,” observed the Norwegian prodigy Magnus Carlsen, the world chess champion and the highest-ranked player in history. “If I study a position for an hour then I am usually going in loops and I’m probably not going to come up with something useful. I usually know what I am going to do after 10 seconds; the rest is double-checking.”23 Carlsen respects his intuition, as well he should, but he also does a lot of “double-checking” because he knows that sometimes intuition can let him down and conscious thought can improve his judgment.”

Philip Tetlock, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
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Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip E. Tetlock
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