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Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

4.10  ·  Rating details ·  10,213 ratings  ·  807 reviews
What if we could improve our ability to predict the future?

Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it.

In a landmark, twenty-year
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Kindle Edition, 352 pages
Published September 24th 2015 by Cornerstone Digital
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Jørgen Ernstsen Not much in my opinion. This is like a hybrid of Signal and the Noise and Thinking fast and slow.
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4.10  · 
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 ·  10,213 ratings  ·  807 reviews


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Yannick Serres
Aug 03, 2015 rated it really liked it  ·  review of another edition
During the first hundred pages, I was sure to give the book a perfect score. It totally caught my attention and made me want more and more. The book made me feel like it had been written for me, someone that don't know much about predictions and forecasts, but feels like he could be good at it.

Then, after the half of the book, you get a little bored because it always come back to the same thing: Use number to make your predictions in a well established timeframe, always question your predictions
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David
Nov 12, 2018 rated it it was amazing  ·  review of another edition
Philip Tetlock is a professor at the University of Pennsylvania. He is a co-leader of the Good Judgment Project, a long-term forecasting study. It is a fascinating project whose purpose is to improve the accuracy of forecasts. You can learn more about the project on theGood Judgment website. In this book you can learn the basics of how to make accurate forecasts in the face of uncertainty and incomplete facts.

An amazing tournament was held, which pitted amateur volunteers in the Good Judgment Pr
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Anton
5⭐ - What a great book!

It will definitely appeal to the fans of Thinking, Fast and Slow, Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions and The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable.

Thought-provoking and full of very perceptive observations. But I particularly would like to commend authors for how well this book is written. This is an example of non-fiction at its best. There is definitely research and background science overview but each chapter is a proper story
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Elizabeth Theiss
When it comes to forecasting, most pundits and professionals do little better than chimps with dartboards, according to Phillip Tetlock, who ought to know because he has spent a good deal of his life keeping track. Tetlock has partnered with Dan Gardner, an excellent science journalist, to write this engaging book about the 2 percent of forecasters who manage to consistently outperform their peers.

Oddly, consumers of forecasts generally do not require evidence of accuracy. Few television networ
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Michael
Philip E. Tetlock feels a bit too polite. Sometimes it seems he is excusing wrong predictions by finding weasel words in them or interpreting them kindly instead of using the intended assertion.
Just say, Thomas Friedman is a bad forecaster.
Instead of reading this book I recommend reading the books he references:
Thinking, Fast and Slow The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable and The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don't
This books feels like a (superficial
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Atila Iamarino
Me surpreendeu positivamente. Tinha comprado este livro em 2015 e nem lembrava o que me motivou. Não me arrependi.

O livro começa com a explicação de como e porque a maioria dos especialistas em previsão política e similares geralmente estão errados. Muitas vezes, mais errados do que tentativas aleatórias de prever o futuro (o anedótico chimpanzé com um dardo).

Philip E. Tetlock fez parte de um longo estudo chamado The Good Judgment Project, onde os participantes passaram anos fazendo predições
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John Kaufmann
This book was solid, though perhaps not quite as good as I hoped/expected. It was interesting reading, full of interesting stories and examples. The author doesn't prescribe a particular method - superforecasting, it appears, is more about a toolbox or set of guidelines that must be used and adapted based on the particular circumstances. As a result, at times I felt the author's thread was being lost or scattered; however, upon reflection I realized it was part of the nature of making prediction ...more
Pavlo Illashenko
Harry Truman famously said
: Give me a one-handed economist! All my economics say, ''On the one hand? on the other.''

Philip Tetlock combines three major findings from different areas of research:

1) People don't like experts who are context specific and could not provide us with clear simple answers regarding complex phenomena in a probabilistic world. People don't like if an expert sounds not 100% confident. They reason, that confidence represents skills.

2) Experts who employ publicly acceptable
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Andy
Jun 30, 2016 rated it it was ok  ·  review of another edition
This book features some interesting trivia about "Super-forecasters" but when it comes to explaining evidence-based practice, it was Super-disappointing. It starts off well with a discussion of Archie Cochrane and evidence-based medicine (EBM), but then it bizarrely ignores the core concepts of EBM.

-In EBM, you look up what works and then use that info to help people instead of killing them. But when Tetlock talks about social philanthropy he implies that it's evidence-based as long as you rigo
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Frank
PT's Superforecasting correctly remarks upon the notable failure to track the performance of people who engaged in predicting the outcome of political events. This lack of accountability has led to a situation where punditry amounts little more than entertainment; extreme positions offered with superficial, one-sided reasoning; aimed mainly at flattering the listeners' visceral prejudices.

One problem is expressed positions are deliberately vague. This makes it easy for the pundit to later requa
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Paul Phillips
Mar 16, 2018 rated it it was amazing  ·  review of another edition
Really good and well thought out ideas, particularly relevant to anyone who has any sort of forecasting responsibilities in their work. I think this is a must read for economists.
My only quarrel is that the beginning is a lot more punchy and the end kind of drags.
Leland Beaumont
Aug 16, 2015 rated it it was amazing  ·  review of another edition
Summarizing 20 years of research on forecasting accuracy conducted from 1984 through 2004, Philip Tetlock concluded “the average expert was roughly as accurate as a dart-throwing chimpanzee.” More worrisome is the inverse correlation between fame and accuracy—the more famous a forecasting expert was, the less accurate he was. This book describes what was learned as Tetlock set out to improve forecasting accuracy with the Good Judgement Project.

Largely in response to colossal US intelligence erro
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Frank Ruscica
Jun 24, 2015 rated it it was amazing  ·  review of another edition
Just finished reading an advance copy. The signal-to-noise ratio of this book: maximum.
Ivan
Apr 03, 2016 rated it it was amazing  ·  review of another edition
Shelves: smart-thinking
Среди плотно заставленных полок в разделе “Smart Thinking” как-то мне на глаза попалась книга “Superforecasting”. Интригующая тема, подумал я, много упоминаний в элитной прессе – нужно читать! Если кратко, то эта книга о том, насколько хорошо люди могут предсказывать результаты важных глобальных событий, как это измерить и чему можно научиться у тех, кто предсказывает лучше.

Каждый из нас регулярно занимается прогнозированием: мы размышляем над тем, на сколько нам повысят зарплату, упадёт ли долл
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Romanas Wolfsborg
As Hume noted, there’s no rational basis for believing that the sun will rise tomorrow. Yet our brain wants to have it simple – we believe that the future will be like the past. The problem here is that the truth of that belief is not self-evident, and there are always numerous possibilities that the future will change. It means that our causal reasoning can’t be justified rationally, and thus there’s no rational basis for believing that the sun will rise tomorrow. However, virtually nobody woul ...more
Allen Adams
http://www.themaineedge.com/style/fut...

Ever since mankind has grasped the concept of time, we have been trying to predict the future. Whole cottage industries have sprung up around the process of prediction. Knowing what is coming next is a need that borders on the obsessive within our culture.

But is it even possible to predict what has yet to happen?

According to “Superforecasters: The Art and Science of Prediction”, the answer is yes…sort of. Social scientist Philip Tetlock and journalist Dan
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Asif
Nov 19, 2015 rated it it was amazing  ·  review of another edition
Possibly the best book I read in 2015. Couldn't have read at a better time as the year nears an end. I could relate with a lot of things as I work as an equity analyst trying to do the seemingly impossible thing of forecasting stock prices. In particular, the examples of how superforecasters go about doing their jobs were pretty inspiring. Examples of taking the outside view and creating a tree of various outcomes and breaking down that tree into branches are something I could benefit from.

As a
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Sabin
Jul 02, 2018 rated it really liked it  ·  review of another edition
It sucks when an audiobook is penned by two people but you hear a lot of “I” and “me”. After a little bit of background check, apparently the “I” and “me” guy is Tetlock, the scientist, while Gardner is just here for the ride. And also because he’s a journalist and because he can write. But maybe I’m wrong.

Anyway, the end-result is worth it. It’s a very detailed account of two forecasting tournaments, which aim to find out if people are better than chance at predicting the future. Short answer:
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Ragnar
Jan 21, 2018 rated it liked it  ·  review of another edition
The point Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner are trying to make is that in the field of forecasting we seldom measure the accuracy of a prediction retrospectively, it applies especially to talking heads giving vague opinions often with no timeframes in media about the trends in the stock market, crisis in Syria, results of next elections etc. The unfortunate thing is that the same happens or happened previously in the national intelligence services as well. No scores were kept on the accuracy levels ...more
Gabriele
Jan 13, 2019 rated it it was amazing  ·  review of another edition
Many of my friends were recommending this book to me and now that I've read it, I regret not doing it sooner. Do yourself a favor and read it asap!
Katrina Stevenson
Jun 11, 2018 rated it really liked it  ·  review of another edition
I truly think I learned a lot about how to forecast more accurately, and what to be aware of when listening to the forecasts of others. It definitely expanded my critical eye when it comes to experts, claims of fact, etc.
Andrew
Superforcasting: The Art of Science and Prediction, by Philip E. Tetlock, is a book about the art and science of statistical prediction, and its everyday uses. Except it isn't really, that is just what they are selling it as. The book starts off really strong, analyzing skepticism, illusions of statistical knowledge, and various types of bias. However, the majority of the book focuses on a US government intelligence project called IARPA, designed to use everyday citizens to make statistical pred ...more
Aloke
Sep 29, 2015 rated it it was amazing  ·  review of another edition
Social scientist Philip Tetlock talks about his multi-year experiment to measure and identify ways to improve our forecasts. A lot of his findings appear to be common sense, i.e. many forecasts are very nebulous and difficult to disprove and so we can't really tell if we are improving, big problems can be forecast by breaking them into more manageable pieces (Fermi-izing in his terminology), our judgement is affected by various biases, etc. The contribution is that Tetlock has brought these idea ...more
Arvind
Nov 14, 2016 rated it really liked it  ·  review of another edition
I first heard of this book on CNN's GPS podcast, but the name "Superforecasting" reminded me of "Super-freakonomics", which inturn remined of dubious smartass hindsights and which caused me to ignore the recommendation. Tetlock was cited again by Steven Pinker in his book "Enlightenment Now" and that finally got me to pick it up.
Can you really forecast geopolitical events ? Surprisingly yes.
Do you need a special ability to be a "super-forecaster" ? Not really.
What then do you need ?
The book desc
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Nick Pascucci
Jan 04, 2016 rated it really liked it  ·  review of another edition
This is really a book on epistemology: How do you manage uncertainty in a world with tons of it? How can we update our beliefs while taking into account the usefulness of new evidence? In the forecasting arena these questions and their answers are key to producing accurate predictions. I would recommend this book to anyone interested in the art of Bayesian epistemology and probabilistic thinking, and doubly so if one has a predilection for prediction.
Daniel
Dec 09, 2015 rated it it was amazing  ·  review of another edition
Un libro interesante acerca de cómo realizar pronósticos.

Uno de los puntos principales para saber cómo se comportará un fenómeno en el futuro depende en gran medida de la información con la que contamos y los posibles escenarios que podrían suceder.

Aunque siempre existen sucesos inesperados el conocimiento de las situaciones disminuyen la incertidumbre.
Poorna Kumar
Jan 05, 2019 rated it really liked it  ·  review of another edition
What makes some forecasters systematically more successful than others? In Superforecasting, Philip Tetlock unpacks the strategies behind making a good forecast, based on evidence from the Good Judgement Project, a study of thousands of forecasters who made thousands of forecasts.

Central to the thesis of the book is the idea that our forecasts need to be unambiguous, with predictions expressed as numeric probabilities and measurable outcomes that we can track to know how successful the initial
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Michael Burnam-Fink
Prediction is hard, especially about the future. And despite the importance people and organizations lay on having a clear view of the future, we're not very good at prediction. The authors, Tetlock and Gardner, argue that the state of prediction is similar to the state of medicine, before randomized clinical trials. Sometime forecasters are right, but mostly they're wrong, and there's no way to separate the potentially useful treatments from quackish nonsense.

But there might be a better way. S
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Graeme Newell
Mar 10, 2019 rated it it was amazing  ·  review of another edition
I really loved this book. The author ran a multi-year study for the government agency DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency) attempting to find ways to make predictions of future world events more accurate. The agency recruited thousands and thousands of ordinary people, then asked them to predict events of major importance.

Examples included:
•Political leaders that might fall from power
•The prices of important commodities such as oil, precious metals and food stocks
•Major economic oc
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Данило Судин
До цієі книги ідеально пасує фраза: "Це була б чудова книга, якби її зробити вдвічі коротшою!" На жаль, попри те, що автор починає текст дуже насичено і жваво, він далі скочується в розповіді про цікаві випадки та цікавих суперпрогнозистів. Але старанно оминає занурюватися в складні питання. Наприклад, прогнозування ефективне на дуже коротких часових дистанціях: прогноз на 5 років стає таким же точним як і кидання монетки / костей тощо. Крім того, прогноз завжди означає давати відповідь на прост ...more
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Superforecasting: White Rats and Foxes 1 14 Sep 06, 2015 06:15PM  
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“If you don’t get this elementary, but mildly unnatural, mathematics of elementary probability into your repertoire, then you go through a long life like a one-legged man in an ass-kicking contest.” 15 likes
“For scientists, not knowing is exciting. It’s an opportunity to discover; the more that is unknown, the greater the opportunity.” 12 likes
More quotes…