Mina
asked:
In chapter 1, there's a paragraph describing the housing boom in the 1950s. The following facts are stated in it: - homeownership rate increased, from 44% to 62%, over 2 decades (1940-1960) - population grew by 20% per decade conclusion: homeowners increased by 80% during the decade Do these figures make any sense? I can't wrap my head around how the auther reached this conclusion.
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The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don't,
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Xavaqenia
Note: I have not read this book yet (though I plan to do so, and am a big fan of Nate Silver) but I thought I could help.
I just ran the numbers. Here is my math:
First of all, if we assume that there are 10,000 people in America in 1940 (to make the math easier) and 44% of them have a home, then at this point 4,400 people own homes. Then, if the total population increases by 20% each decade for two decades, the total population of America in 1960 is 14,400. Now, 62% percent of Americans own homes, which is 8,928 people in our model.
If we now take 8,928 as a percentage of 4,400 we get 202% percent. Thus, a 102% increase in homeownership over two years. 80% percent seems to be a conservative estimate, if I interpreted your question correctly.
Hope that helps!
I just ran the numbers. Here is my math:
First of all, if we assume that there are 10,000 people in America in 1940 (to make the math easier) and 44% of them have a home, then at this point 4,400 people own homes. Then, if the total population increases by 20% each decade for two decades, the total population of America in 1960 is 14,400. Now, 62% percent of Americans own homes, which is 8,928 people in our model.
If we now take 8,928 as a percentage of 4,400 we get 202% percent. Thus, a 102% increase in homeownership over two years. 80% percent seems to be a conservative estimate, if I interpreted your question correctly.
Hope that helps!
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