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544 pages, Hardcover
First published September 27, 2012
A conspiracy theory might be thought of as the laziest form of signal analysis. As the Harvard professor H.L. "Skip" Gates says, "Conspiracy theories are an irresistible labor-saving device in the face of complexity."
Heuristics like Occam's razor ... sound sexy, but they are hard to apply.... An admonition like "The more complex you make the model the worse the forecast gets" is equivalent to saying "Never add too much salt to the recipe".... If you want to get good at forecasting, you'll need to immerse yourself in the craft and trust your own taste-buds.