Switch: How to Change Things When Change Is Hard

by Chip Heath

the way to sell management was to use the tools of risk economics—in particular, the concept of expected value. Expected-value calculations are bulletproof in situations where the risks and returns are well

understood.

Remember, when the Elephant really wants something, the Rider can be trusted to find rationalizations for it.)

Probabilistic predictions had always provided a cover for failure.

The idea of eliminating dry holes prompted geologists to become more systematic about mapping and aggregating the information they had.

“No dry holes” was effective in stamping out two kinds of rationalizations for poorly conceived drilling operations. One was “learning”—the convenient notion that even if a particular well doesn’t hit, the team will learn so much from the process that future operations will be more successful. Vann said, “I can give you a hundred examples where people made a mistake because they didn’t use knowledge they already had, for every one example where we learn something that is valuable for next time.” The other common rationalization was that certain wells had “strategic value.” Callagher said, “The last defense of the charlatan is always that something is ‘strategic.’ ‘This is a strategic well, so we have to drill it.’” “No dry holes” removed the fudge room. A well might be strategic, or it might not be, but either way, it better not be dry.

When BP left nowhere for people to hide, its people stopped trying to hide. They tightened up their analyses, and they made fewer “play-the-odds” decisions. They got serious about using every available scrap of data in their decisions. And they toughened up their resistance to governmental and partner pressure.

BP transformed itself when it eliminated its own wiggle room. When we drill a hole, it better not be dry.

Because they couldn’t easily excuse failure—It was strategic! It was a learning opportunity!—they were left with only one choice: Drill smarter next time.

marry your long-term goal with short-term critical moves.

You have to back up your destination postcard with a good behavioral script. That’s a recipe for success.

When you’re at the beginning, don’t obsess about the middle, because the middle is going to look different once you get there. Just look for a strong beginning and a strong ending and get moving.

to influence the day-to-day behavior of the analysts on his team.

He focused on what he could control: He provided a destination postcard (“I.I. or Die”), and he scripted some moves that would give his people a head start.

Here’s the good news: The Rider’s strengths are substantial, and his flaws can be mitigated.

First, follow the bright spots. Think of the Vietnamese children who stayed well nourished against the odds, or the Genentech sales reps who racked up sales against the odds. As you analyze your situation, you’re sure to find some things that are working better than others. Don’t obsess about the failures. Instead, investigate and clone the successes. Next, give direction to the Rider—both a start and a finish. Send him a destination postcard (“You’ll be a third grader soon!”), and script his critical moves (“Buy 1% milk”). When you do these things, you’ll prepare the Rider to lead a switch. And you’ll arm him for the ongoing struggles with his reluctant and formidable partner, the Elephant.

the remarkable thing is that her successes came despite a lack of authority and resources. Waters

them to miss the most important issue: … the core of the matter is always about changing the behavior of people, and behavior change happens in highly successful situations mostly by speaking to people’s feelings. This is true even in organizations that are very focused on analysis and quantitative measurement, even among people who think of themselves as smart in an MBA sense. In highly successful change efforts, people find ways to help others see the problems or solutions in ways that influence emotions, not just thought.

when change works, it’s because leaders are speaking to the Elephant as well as to the Rider.

analytical tools work best when “parameters are known, assumptions are minimal,

and the future is not fuzzy.”

Kotter and Cohen observed that, in almost all successful change efforts, the sequence of change is not ANALYZE-THINK-CHANGE, but rather SEE-FEEL-CHANGE.

Waters thought carefully about what her colleagues would see because she knew what she wanted them to feel: energized, hopeful, creative, competitive.