Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment
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Read between July 31 - August 28, 2024
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comparative judgments applies to many domains.
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Comparative or relative judgments are more sensitive than categorical or absolute ones.
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also more effortful and time-consuming.
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there is no way to keep the recommenders accountable for using the scale properly.
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This type of matching is noisy because it is crude.
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A procedure that compels explicitly comparative judgments is likely to reduce noise.
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This chapter focuses on the role of the response
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scale as a pervasive source of noise.
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Ambiguity in the wording of scales is a general problem.
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they are interpreted differently by both speakers and listeners.
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punitive award, intended to send the defendant and similar companies a warning.
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goals were to test a theory about the psychology of punitive damages
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investigate the role of the monetary scale (here dollars) as a main source of noise in this legal institution.
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The intensity of the intended punishment will then be matched to the intensity of the outrage.
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As expected from the substitution idea, the correlation between the mean ratings of outrage and of punitive intent was a close-to-perfect 0.98 (PC = 94%).
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the emotion of outrage is the primary determinant of punitive intent.
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intuitions about punitive intent have a retributive aspect,
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eye-for-an-eye principle.
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These findings highlight a key feature of the process of judgment: the subtle effect of the judgment task on the weighting of different aspects of the evidence.
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second goal of the study was to find out why punitive damages are noisy.
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differ widely in how they translate their punitive intent onto the scale of dollars.
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deviation from the average judgment counts as an error, and these errors are the source of system noise.
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system noise can be broken down into level noise and pattern noise.
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overall variance of judgments into three elements:
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least noisy scale is punitive intent,
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outrage scale is distinctly
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noisier:
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the dollar scale is by far...
This highlight has been truncated due to consecutive passage length restrictions.
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We saw earlier that the just values of outrage and punitive intent were almost perfectly correlated, as implied by the outrage hypothesis.
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What does it mean for a behavior to be “absolutely outrageous”?
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Punitive intent is more specific.
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less ambiguous because its upper bound is more clearly specified.
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fair amount of agreement among our experimental jurors in their ratings of punitive intent; the ratings were mostly explained by outrage.
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dollar measure most closely simulated the courtroom situation, and it was unacceptably noisy.
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people share strong intuitions about the ratios of intensity of many subjective experiences and attitudes.
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scales that draw on such intuitions ratio scales.
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it has a meaningful zero (zero dollars) and is unbounded at the top.
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ratio scale (like the dollar scale) can be tied down by a single intermediate anchor (the jargon term is modulus).
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As expected, the numbers that observers assigned to lights of different brightness were proportional to the arbitrary anchor they were instructed to adopt.
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standard deviation of the observer’s
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judgments would also be proportional to the anchor.
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appears that people are much more sensitive to the relative value of comparable goods than to their absolute value. The authors of the study named the persistent effect of a single anchor “coherent arbitrariness.”
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the absence of guidance from the experimenter, people are forced to make an arbitrary choice when they use the scale for the first time.
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judgments to be proportionately large without affecting their relative size.
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dollar judgments actually reflect the judges’ punitive intentions. To discover these intentions, we need only replace the absolute dollar values with relative scores.
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proportion of noise in the judgments dropped from 94% to 49%
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absolute values of the dollar awards are essentially meaningless because they depend on the arbitrary number chosen in the first case.
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The assumption implicit in the law is that jurors’ sense of justice will lead them directly from a consideration of an offense to the correct punishment. This assumption is psychological nonsense—
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First, the choice of a scale can make a large difference in the amount of noise in judgments, because ambiguous scales are noisy. Second, replacing absolute judgments with relative ones, when feasible, is likely to reduce noise.
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Not so with Julie 2.0. What makes this problem difficult is the presence of multiple, conflicting cues.
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