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Life is often more complex than the stories we like to tell about it.
Ambiguity also explains why complex problems are noisier than simple ones.
When do you feel confident in a judgment?
comprehensively coherent,
no attractive alte...
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the details of the chosen interpretation fit with the story and r...
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by ignoring or explaining away whatever does not fit. It is the same with alte...
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can gain confidence of equal strength but poorer quality by failing to consider alternatives or by actively suppressing them.
the suppression of alternative interpretations—a well-documented process in perception—could induce what we have called the illusion of agreement
We are not all highly confident all the time, but most of the time we are more confident than we should be.
Pattern errors arise from a combination of transient and permanent factors.
can write a simple equation that describes an error in a single judgment:
As we did for other components of error and noise, we can represent this equation graphically as a sum of squares on the sides of a right triangle
what we call stable pattern noise.
idiosyncratic and unpredictable, but they are likely to be stable:
When judgments are unverifiable, superior accuracy will look like pattern noise.
Pattern noise also arises from systematic differences in the ability to make valid judgments about different dimensions of a case.
pattern noise is better described as variability in what people know than as error.
You come with the habits of mind you formed on the job and the wisdom you gained from your mentors.
your stable pattern errors are unique to you.
second lottery
creates occasion noise.
The effect of reading the newspaper article is transient; it is occasion noise.
there is no sharp discontinuity between stable pattern noise and the unstable variant that we call occasion noise.
When the triggers of pattern noise are rooted in our personal experiences
and values, we can expect the pattern to be stable, a reflection of our uniqueness.
Psychologists have long sought to understand and measure individual differences in personality.
Big Five model, combines traits into five groupings (extraversion, agreeableness, conscientiousness, openness to experience, neuroticism), with each of the Big Five covering a range of distinguishable traits.
predictor of actual behaviors.
however, the validity of broad traits for predicting specific behaviors is quite limited; a correlation of .30 (PC = 60%) would be considered high.
also strongly affected by situations.
behaviors are a function of personalities and of situations.
signature patterns of response to situations are likely to be fairly stable over time.
people who share a trait level—
should be described by two distributions of behaviors that have the same average but not necessarily the same pattern of responses to different situations.
specific behaviors are only moderately predictable from personality traits.
The signature of an individual who makes judgments and decisions is a unique pattern of sensitivity to features and a correspondingly unique pattern in the judgment of cases.
this book is concerned with professional judgments, where variation is problematic and noise is error.
uniqueness of people’s personalities
When it comes to judgment, however, that uniqueness is not an asset.”
wherever there is judgment, there is noise.
We now review the main lessons we have learned about the components of noise, about their respective importance in the general picture of noise, and about the place of noise in the study of judgment.
three successive breakdowns of error: • error into bias and system noise, • system noise into level noise and pattern noise, • pattern noise into stable pattern noise and occasion noise.
soon concluded that noise is often a larger component of error than bias is,
On the other hand, because every participant judges every case but does so only once, there is no way of telling whether the residual error, which we have called pattern error, is transient or stable.
the residual error is commonly labeled an error term and is treated as random.
default interpretation of pattern noise is that it consists entire...
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intrigued by evidence of the influence on judgments of the irrelevant and transient circumstances that create occasion noise.
neither a general bias of the individual nor transient and random: the persistent personal reactions of particular individuals to a multitude of features, which determine their reactions to specific cases.
concluded that our default assumption about the transient nature of pattern noise should be abandoned.
