Forecasting


Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don't
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto)
Life Expectancy
The Art Of The Long View:  Planning For The Future In An Uncertain World
Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of "Intangibles" in Business
Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder
The Wisdom of Crowds
Denialism: How Irrational Thinking Hinders Scientific Progress, Harms the Planet, and Threatens Our Lives
The Scout Mindset: Why Some People See Things Clearly and Others Don't
Forecasting: principles and practice
Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century
Like the weather or bonds between lovers, transformations can never be predicted. All energy transmutes one day or another, in one way or another. Either in its form or composition. Or in its position or disposition.
Suzy Kassem, Rise Up and Salute the Sun: The Writings of Suzy Kassem

Andrew McAfee
Our world is increasingly complex, often chaotic, and always fast-flowing. This makes forecasting something between tremendously difficult and actually impossible, with a strong shift toward the latter as timescales get longer.
Andrew McAfee, Machine, Platform, Crowd: Harnessing Our Digital Future

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