Forecasting


Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don't
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
Forecasting: principles and practice
Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto)
Life Expectancy
The Art Of The Long View:  Planning For The Future In An Uncertain World
Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder
The Wisdom of Crowds
Denialism: How Irrational Thinking Hinders Scientific Progress, Harms the Planet, and Threatens Our Lives
The Scout Mindset: Why Some People See Things Clearly and Others Don't
How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of "Intangibles" in Business
Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century
Craig D. Lounsbrough
I would encourage you not to confuse a passing drizzle with a brainstorm. Because if you do, it won’t take a meteorologist to tell you what’s coming, and it’ll take more than an umbrella to protect you from it.
Craig D. Lounsbrough

Derek     Thompson
In all sorts of markets—music, film, art, and politics—the future of popularity will be harder to predict as the broadcast power of radio and television democratizes and the channels of exposure grow.... The gatekeepers had their day. Now there are simply too many gates to keep.
Derek Thompson, Hit Makers: The Science of Popularity in an Age of Distraction

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