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Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
by
In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call real
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Hardcover, 288 pages
Published
February 6th 2018
by Portfolio Penguin
(first published 2018)
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Start your review of Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
tl;dr Acknowledge the (omni)presence of uncertainty in every decision we make, and recognize that "everything is a bet" - even decisions we're very confident in.
In poker, luck is acknowledged as a major factor in every hand. If you have a 50% chance to win a $100 hand, it is a sound decision to bet anything under $50 on the hand. Make this decision enough times, and you will eventually come out ahead (spending anything less than the expected ROI: $50 is net positive). But we have trouble thinkin ...more
In poker, luck is acknowledged as a major factor in every hand. If you have a 50% chance to win a $100 hand, it is a sound decision to bet anything under $50 on the hand. Make this decision enough times, and you will eventually come out ahead (spending anything less than the expected ROI: $50 is net positive). But we have trouble thinkin ...more
First half is basically Superforecasting recap
Second half is more interesting, with actionable techniques and tips to systematically improve decision-making
Second half is more interesting, with actionable techniques and tips to systematically improve decision-making
This is a fantastic book for understanding, identifying, and correcting biases in decision making, while also repeatedly separating the quality of a decision-making process from its outcomes.
I've read dozens upon dozens of pop-science books on contemporary cognitive science. In fact, as I get older, I find cognitive sciences and how we humans work "in the world" more important science reading than the physics that captivated me when younger. And nearly all cover, at least in part, our "predictably irrational" cognitive biases. But few offer effective strategies for overcoming our built-in human failings. But former poker champ (and one-time Penn State PhD candidate) Annie Duke manag
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Good Book but if you are already aware of the common human cognitive biases (Influence by Caldini / Charlie Munger's psychology of human misjudgement speech - are good starts) then it might be repetitive.
One of author Annie Duke’s key insights is: ‘life is more like poker than chess.’
Meaning, we often make decisions and negotiate in an atmosphere of tension and deceit, without all of the information, based on probability (like poker).
As opposed to making choices and deals in a rational, formal, mechanistic context, where all of the information is available, and based on game theory, where we can reasonably assume the other player will make their best move (like chess).
Annie Duke splits lanes ...more
Meaning, we often make decisions and negotiate in an atmosphere of tension and deceit, without all of the information, based on probability (like poker).
As opposed to making choices and deals in a rational, formal, mechanistic context, where all of the information is available, and based on game theory, where we can reasonably assume the other player will make their best move (like chess).
Annie Duke splits lanes ...more
3+ ⭐️
This book is nicely written, with good examples, and curious titbits about life of pro-level poker players.
It also has a great premise: all decisions are bets. But I felt there was just too much filler content to make it a satisfying experience for me. So while I enjoyed some bits a lot, I was skim reading the others.
I would recommend this book as a good intro read if you haven’t been following recent popular science releases on decision-making for the past 5 years or so. It also includes ...more
This book is nicely written, with good examples, and curious titbits about life of pro-level poker players.
It also has a great premise: all decisions are bets. But I felt there was just too much filler content to make it a satisfying experience for me. So while I enjoyed some bits a lot, I was skim reading the others.
I would recommend this book as a good intro read if you haven’t been following recent popular science releases on decision-making for the past 5 years or so. It also includes ...more
Th author discusses the topic of decision making and the probabilistic mindset that should be adopted. The unnecessary repetitiveness made this book boring and longer than it should be.
The book is a very shallow literature review of behavioral economics. Sprinkled throughout are references to recent events (Pete Carroll Superbowl moment) and glimpses into the author's career as a Poker player (discussions of outcomes with peers and player support network) but neither in any sufficient depth to be meaningful anecdotes. The referenced literature is paraphrased and summarized poorly, but repeated or elaborated in an unhelpful manner meant obviously to fulfill a word-count quota.
T ...more
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This supposed to be a nice book about poker, with some science behind.
But Author just pointed out that poker is mixed luck and skill, and you should focus on skill part. That's all, honestly.
There was a lot of smart things from over 100 self-help books, but reading them all put together and tide to poker was painful.
But Author just pointed out that poker is mixed luck and skill, and you should focus on skill part. That's all, honestly.
There was a lot of smart things from over 100 self-help books, but reading them all put together and tide to poker was painful.
My husband wanted me to listen to this on our trip to see grand baby Claire. I ended up loving it. Annie Duke narrates her own book delightfully. The premise is how she learned to think by playing poker. I loved her emphasis on results not being an indication of good or bad decision making. Sometimes things don’t work out even when due diligence is done. So many great takeaways from this book. I am sure I will reread it.
I really enjoyed this book. The author, Annie Duke, is a famous professional poker player. She has spent her life sitting around a poker table attempting to predict how chance and human behavior will coalesce to influence outcomes. This has given her a delightfully refreshing vantage point on the fallibilities of decision making.
Most of us vastly underestimate the role that good and bad luck play in the outcomes of our daily lives. Duke points out that we want to believe we are firmly in contro ...more
Most of us vastly underestimate the role that good and bad luck play in the outcomes of our daily lives. Duke points out that we want to believe we are firmly in contro ...more
Great book on statistical thinking in business by a woman with a poker background and only a moderate ego, compared to a certain trader with a massive ego who has written about low probability high impact events. The first part of the book is more general statistical thinking, but presented well, and the last is more self-help about working around inherent cognitive biases and limitations.
Really helpful. Main points:
- You should speak less dogmatically when you don’t know all the facts
- You rarely know all the facts
- Don’t confuse a good decision that led to poor results with a bad decision. Sometimes you just get unlucky.
- Confirmation bias predisposes you to interpret data in unreliable ways and the more intelligent you are the worse that problem is.
- Don’t make decisions based on immediate gratification—redefine happiness in light of a lifetime goal rather than the immediate ...more
- You should speak less dogmatically when you don’t know all the facts
- You rarely know all the facts
- Don’t confuse a good decision that led to poor results with a bad decision. Sometimes you just get unlucky.
- Confirmation bias predisposes you to interpret data in unreliable ways and the more intelligent you are the worse that problem is.
- Don’t make decisions based on immediate gratification—redefine happiness in light of a lifetime goal rather than the immediate ...more
Decision frameworks and mental models from a professional poker player
The book makes a compelling case for decisions as bets and predictions as continuous probability distributions instead of black or white, or max-likelihood discrete choices. It draws on poker stories to illustrate these concepts convincingly.
The author is having difficulties situating these lessons in a business setting. Only a few examples are explored, but they're rather thin and unconvincing. More examples, and tactics on h ...more
The book makes a compelling case for decisions as bets and predictions as continuous probability distributions instead of black or white, or max-likelihood discrete choices. It draws on poker stories to illustrate these concepts convincingly.
The author is having difficulties situating these lessons in a business setting. Only a few examples are explored, but they're rather thin and unconvincing. More examples, and tactics on h ...more
The most important insights are right there in the intro or even in every other book about decision making--the central takeaway for me was that you have to make decisions with the facts you have and even if the outcome is bad, the decision could have been good given what you know. Like in poker. Oh and we all have biases, but you know that if you're the type of person who reads books like this all the time
This is a combined review of the following books:
Gary Smith, "What the Luck?"
Dan Ariely, "Predictably Irrational"
Annie Duke, "Thinking in Bets"
Gary Smith, "Standard Deviations"
I'm a big believer that statistics and behavioral economics are much under-appreciated fields. As a booster shot, to recharge my thinking in these areas, I picked up these books. They pretty much did the job; they are well-written in the language of the common person.
Ms. Duke's work uses her experience as a gambler to shed ...more
Gary Smith, "What the Luck?"
Dan Ariely, "Predictably Irrational"
Annie Duke, "Thinking in Bets"
Gary Smith, "Standard Deviations"
I'm a big believer that statistics and behavioral economics are much under-appreciated fields. As a booster shot, to recharge my thinking in these areas, I picked up these books. They pretty much did the job; they are well-written in the language of the common person.
Ms. Duke's work uses her experience as a gambler to shed ...more
Annie Duke offers up the idea that life is more like poker than chess. You can play the perfect hand, make all the right decisions and still get unlucky. Given the presence of uncertainty in every decision we make, even those decisions we feel fairly certain about, it's time to recognize that every decision is basically a bet and how thinking in this manner can give us a better process to make great decisions.
What makes a decision great is not that it has a great outcome. A great decision is the ...more
The content has little to do with the title. If the book was called" Introduction to probabilistic thinking", it would be more appropriate and I would not have bought it.
It really got off to a good start. A bad result does not have to be the result of a bad decision. The world is not like playing chess, where there is practically no randomness involved. At that time I thought to myself, the writer would introduce me to the subject and then go deeper. Unfortunately, there is not much more depth. ...more
It really got off to a good start. A bad result does not have to be the result of a bad decision. The world is not like playing chess, where there is practically no randomness involved. At that time I thought to myself, the writer would introduce me to the subject and then go deeper. Unfortunately, there is not much more depth. ...more
Really good book about the fundamentals of making smarter decisions. It's just simple and accessible advice backed up with interesting stories and examples and plenty of references to other books the read more. The main point in this book is that the world is almost never black and white. Nothing is 100% certain. Instead of being confident about something you should start thinking about how confident you are about it. Resulters only concentrate on results and doesn’t think that the decisions mig
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One of my most recommended non-fiction books of the year -- frames a way of thinking that I think is severely undervalued, and combats our culture's increasing tendency to retroactively call decisions good or bad solely based on result, and assess ideas based on their source versus their merit. Quick read with a high ratio of value to length -- highly recommend it.
The mindset of approaching decisions as if you had to bet on them, and realizing there are no absolutes, is very valuable. However, this book suffers from a lot of the same ailments as others in the genre: it's an insightful 30-page idea in a 230-page package. There's too much pop-science fluff and meandering anecdotes.
Concrete advice and tangible examples on how to make better decisions. This book offers a practical view for day to day life on top of findings of behavioral-economics giants like Kahneman.
Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts (2018) by Annie Duke is an interesting look at how decision making in many circumstances is like poker and what many people can learn from professional poker players about making decisions when lacking information.
Duke made a lot of money playing poker and talks about how she did it. How she would go over her decisions from games with other professional players. It's fascinating that they wouldn't focus on the results, ...more
Duke made a lot of money playing poker and talks about how she did it. How she would go over her decisions from games with other professional players. It's fascinating that they wouldn't focus on the results, ...more
Life is a constant betting game. This is what Annie Duke's book suggests. I can't agree more -- from tiny everyday decisions to great life-changing steps –- there’s always a bet, for better or worse outcome. Even when we think we’re not betting, it is a bet in itself. Pizza or salad for the dinner tonight, should I take that new job offer, ask out this girlfriend or wait for a potentially better one? That’s the constant game we play. Each decision or lack of it has consequences, so we’re trying
...more
Who knew that the world of poker and behavioral economics had something in common. It was refreshing to read a book that talked about dealing with our biases rather than pointing to the different ways we trip ourselves into irrationality. Although we might not be as lucky as Annie to find a group that accelerates our efforts to tame the irrational mind, Tools like the betting strategy, inviting feedback and 10:10:10 rule can be pretty useful. I felt that the poker and baseball examples were used
...more
When making a hiring decision I'm making reasoning from this book since I can remember. Since the concept of betting and playing unfair games is close to me I couldn't look away when someone recommended me this book.
This is just a solid framework of continuously improving your decisionmaking. Some things (Duhigg and Kahneman or Taleb fragments) repeated other publications I've read, however, a lot of it was fresh, actionable and juicy. Highly recommended since this is a book of a fellow practit ...more
This is just a solid framework of continuously improving your decisionmaking. Some things (Duhigg and Kahneman or Taleb fragments) repeated other publications I've read, however, a lot of it was fresh, actionable and juicy. Highly recommended since this is a book of a fellow practit ...more
The book spends a lot of time setting up the premise and very little explaining the techniques. There is not much content here to be a book. The analogies are based a lot on pop culture and football. They might be based on research but I could not connect to all the examples / metaphors provided in the book.
Skip it IMHO
Skip it IMHO
This book should have been a tweetstorm. There's so much filler in this book that I found myself skipping 10 pages ahead only to find that it was still making the same trivial point it had already repeated twice
Long-winded passages reiterating repetitive arguments and cases over and over again. The same content can be substantially reduced into a single chapter or even a few paragraphs. Listening to the audio version makes the experience worse, as the materials fail to engage to trigger my attention.
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Annie Duke (born Anne LaBarr Lederer) is a professional poker player and author who won a bracelet in the 2004 World Series of Poker $2,000 Omaha Hi-Low Split-8 or Better Event and was the winner of the 2004 World Series of Poker Tournament of Champions, where she earned the Winner-Take-All prize of $2,000,000.
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“What makes a decision great is not that it has a great outcome. A great decision is the result of a good process, and that process must include an attempt to accurately represent our own state of knowledge. That state of knowledge, in turn, is some variation of “I’m not sure.”
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“In most of our decisions, we are not betting against another person. Rather, we are betting against all the future versions of ourselves that we are not choosing.”
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