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Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder

(Incerto #4)

Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Goodreads Author)

4.09 · Rating details · 45,307 ratings · 3,734 reviews

From the bestselling author of The Black Swan and one of the foremost philosophers of our time, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a book on how some systems actually benefit from disorder.

In The Black Swan Taleb outlined a problem; in Antifragile he offers a definitive solution: how to gain from disorder and chaos while being protected from fragilities and adverse events. For what he ...more

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Hardcover, 426 pages

Published November 27th 2012 by Random House

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May 30, 2012 Val Delane rated it it was amazing · review of another edition

Shelves: favorite

Taleb seems constitutionally angry, dismissive, and contrarian--sometimes to the point of being an asshole. However, one cannot deny his talent of conveying crucially important concepts in a clear and entertaining fashion. I would rather have every one of my biases and heuristics kicked around so I will reconsider where they came from--and whether to keep them--than be coddled and comforted.

Perhaps the best heuristic reminders I received from this book: 1/ Invest (trust) in people, not plans. 2/ ...more

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Oct 30, 2012 Andrew Shaffer rated it did not like it

The author goes to extreme lengths to make up new words or turn common sense wisdom on its head. "Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder and stressors.... Yet, in spite of the ubiquity of the phenomenon, there is no word for the exact opposite of fragile. Let us call it antifragile." Really? The word "adaptable" wouldn't suffice? "Antifragile" is not the last word he makes up, either. Instead of writing the word "brave," for instanc ...more

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Nov 26, 2012 Pete Welter rated it it was amazing

"Antifragile" is a book that is difficult to summarize. I'll try to mention a few major ideas. If they come out confusing, it's my fault - read the book :)

Unlike many books of this genre, which spend 200 pages padding a 5 page idea, Antifragile is a fractal of a book, taking it's central ideas and examining and applying them in myriad ways. In that way, it as rich on page 400 as it is on page 2.

Taleb is an independent thinker who is almost impossible to categorize. In fact he revels in question ...more

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May 01, 2013 Jay rated it did not like it

Taleb has some great ideas. Unfortunately, he also has what he calls "FU money," which allows him to do what he wants without suffering fools. Which, for Taleb, includes pretty much anyone, including editors, whose help he could use.

When are two similar ideas not really the same? Taleb takes the human immune response and the muscle hypertrophy response to resistance training as examples of the same thing--systems responding to stress by getting better able to handle the stress. And they do have Taleb has some great ideas. Unfortunately, he also has what he calls "FU money," which allows him to do what he wants without suffering fools. Which, for Taleb, includes pretty much anyone, including editors, whose help he could use.

When are two similar ideas not really the same? Taleb takes the human immune response and the muscle hypertrophy response to resistance training as examples of the same thing--systems responding to stress by getting better able to handle the stress. And they do have that in common. But they are different--and very specialized--systemic responses. What do they have in common? What can we learn from them, apart from the fact that solving problems is good?

Taleb later argues that avoiding stress is bad--that it prevents the organism from developing the ability to manage the stress that will eventually return in a stronger form. But it's not clear how the good system designed to deal with stress differ from the bad ones. If exposure to small stresses is good because it allows you to overcome the stress, why is overcoming the stress bad? The famously complex immune system, with its unfortunate side effects (allergies, auto-immune disease) looks a lot like the sort of overengineered over-protective solution with unintended consequences Taleb later mocks.

Moving on from the organism, Taleb's next example is evolution. He does acknowledge that the organism and the species have very different views on what is good. The species is antifragile, and it thrives, often, when particular organisms do not. Selection pressures kill individuals, but they strengthen the group, argues Taleb. But selection pressures also wipe out species. And genera. And orders. And so on. And they'll wipe out all of life, possibly. Meanwhile, they do create conditions that result in the magic of evolution, but the awards go to the survivors, those most successful at avoiding or handling stress, not those who subject themselves to the most stress. There is no "Nature" that "likes" stress (one of Taleb's more troublesome figures of speech).

I don't have time to pick apart every example and argument he makes, nor would it be possible, as each one reappears several times in a vague skein of association that prevents the clear development of any single idea. Here is where we most feel the absence of the editor. Didn't he already say that? Didn't he define that term before? No? Could this book be boiled down by about 70%?

I do have to mention the use of math. He often suggests that the reader skip a section (would that I had) as it is more "technical." But there was no difference that I could see between the "technical" and "non-technical" parts: both were vague and repetitive. There's even a "technical" appendix, which I turned to quite avidly, hoping for more concrete development of Taleb's ideas. But no. All I found was a brilliant exhibit of how to detect math BS: if an author provides an equation that includes variables that are not defined anywhere in the text, then the equation is meaningless and the author is blowing smoke.

In the economic world, Taleb is a bit more persuasive. The law of unintended consequences is well-known, and it's no surprise that efforts to protect this market or that industry are usually lobbyist-hatched schemes to assist those least in need of assistance. Where firms are able to succeed in spite of challenges, they have often grown strong enough to challenge firms grown in the hothouse environment of closed markets. If Taleb had written about this, it might have been as good a book as The Black Swan. But, with his FU money and his goal of becoming a philosopher, he must have decided that was too pedestrian. ...more

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Jan 29, 2013 Alfredo rated it did not like it

Shelves: not-finishing-it

This book has been such a disappointment...

It started absolutely great and has an idea (antifragility) that is worthy and notable and interesting. Wait, let me back up from the beginning: I could not finish this book.

When I read non fiction I tend to stick to certain rules:

1) I want to learn from the books I read. I tend not to read Mathematics, for example, except in formal context, since normally when I read Math being exposed to the general public I noticed how poorly they are really explaini ...more

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Apr 24, 2013 Dmitri rated it liked it

Shelves: nonfiction, audiobook

What a frustrating book.

10% of it was brilliant and original ideas - I was very glad to learn about antifragility and optionality as it relates to life and business.

Unfortunately, the other 90% of it was spent whining (I can't describe it any other way) and moralizing, of the most weaksauce variety. Ugh.

Still worth reading, if you're patient, or if you can skim heavily through his "modern society sucks, the Romans were awesome!" diatribes. ...more

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Mar 29, 2013 Deb (Readerbuzz) Nance rated it it was amazing

Shelves: problems-ideas, nonfiction, philosophy

I've been reading this book, Antifragile, for almost four weeks. I call it reading. I've turned all the pages. I've read all the words. That's reading, right?

Or is it?

I started off pretty well, somehow managing to get my brain around the whole idea of antifragile, a word the author, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, admits he made up. There is no real word in English that properly names this idea. Everyone understands the idea of fragile, something that is destroyed when stressed. But the opposite of fragi I've been reading this book, Antifragile, for almost four weeks. I call it reading. I've turned all the pages. I've read all the words. That's reading, right?

Or is it?

I started off pretty well, somehow managing to get my brain around the whole idea of antifragile, a word the author, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, admits he made up. There is no real word in English that properly names this idea. Everyone understands the idea of fragile, something that is destroyed when stressed. But the opposite of fragile is more than just something that survives difficulties. Antifragility, Taleb tells us, is the idea of a phenomenon that goes beyond mere resilience; antifragility is the idea of something that actually improves with difficulties and uncertainty.

Taleb gives us lots of great examples of things that are antifragile: "...evolution, culture, ideas, revolutions, political systems, technological innovation, cultural and economic success, corporate survival, good recipes (say, chicken soup or steak tartare with a drop of cognac), the rise of cities, cultures, legal systems, equatorial forests, bacterial resistance...even our own existence as a species on this planet."

I'm high-five-ing him, right and left...love this idea of antifragile, Taleb.

That was the Prologue, however. Round about the second or third page of Chapter 1, I find that I'm reading along, with no idea what Mr. Taleb is explaining. He tries, he really does, and now and then I read a paragraph and think I'm back on the highway. The Soviet-Harvard Department of Ornithology, for example. (How well do I know that department, the people who lecture to birds about proper techniques for flying, observe and write reports about the birds' flying abilities, and then seek funding to ensure that the lectures will continue!) But, soon I'm back driving in the dark again.

I don't know if I really read this book. Can I add it to my 2013 Book Log? Does it count? Please don't ask me to summarize it or outline it or (heaven forbid!) don't test me on it.

But if I didn't really read it, why did I like it so much? And why can't I stop thinking about it?

Maybe what I did when I read Antifragile was antireading. Maybe antireading is the kind of reading where you turn the pages and read the words, but understand only a smidgen of what's there, and then you think about it for weeks, and come back to the book again and again, and maybe try to reread it, and it tweaks your map about this life, even through you really didn't understand much of what you read to begin with.

Maybe antireading is the best kind of reading of all.

...more

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Aug 02, 2013 David Rubenstein rated it it was amazing

Shelves: ethics, economics, business, philosophy, memoirs

I had previously read Nassim Taleb's The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable; I enjoyed it, and this book is definitely better. Taleb has a very non-traditional style of writing--often conversational, historical, philosophical, and scientific--all at the same time.

Taleb's basic thesis is that people and institutions are either fragile, robust, or antifragile. A fragile person is one who thinks he can predict the future--and when things go very sour, he is sorely hurt, usually in a f ...more

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Aug 29, 2013 James Johnson rated it did not like it

The author somehow is able to pull off sounding like an arrogant prick and simultaneously like an insecure whiner. The rare examples when the author wrote something that was true or significant do not offset the hundred of pages of unsubstantiated assertions and purely fabricated nonsense.

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Jun 02, 2013 Annie rated it it was ok

Shelves: did-not-finish

Antifagile points out the value of systems that gain from disorder, chaos, or volatility. For example, a fragile state is catching a disease, a neutral state is avoiding exposure to anyone infected with the disease, and antifragile state is being vaccinated (where a small dosage produces immunity to the disease). There are many examples in the book, like lack of physical exertion, walking, and jogging. The rigorous activity of jogging increases health benefits, whereas no stressors to the body m ...more

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Jan 19, 2015 Mario Tomic rated it it was amazing

This is one of the most important books I've ever read, it opened my eyes to entire new mindset and gave me a new framework for understanding the world. I know some of you reading this book will find the cocky tone of the author unbearable but just keep plowing through, the ideas shared inside are based on a very powerful logic that's hard to argue against. If I had to pick the 2 big ideas of the book I would say they are:
1. Design your life around anti-fragility (allow the stress of life to st ...more

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Jan 17, 2013 Matt rated it did not like it

Shelves: science, economics

I sat on this review for a long time, because this book bothered me. I really disliked both the author and his work. The writing is punchy, blustery, privileged, and utterly without charm. Taleb barely dips his toe into each topic before asserting that he has proven another point. Antifragile is very weak on evidence.

You have to worry about an author that thinks he can vocalize an argument through Tony Soprano that defeats Socrates(!!!). Further, he is on Al-Ghazali's side, a Spanish Muslim who ...more

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Jan 01, 2013 Will Ansbacher rated it it was ok · review of another edition

Shelves: economics, unintentional-humour, society

I sometimes receive emails from demented would-be Nobel prizewinners with titles like “the Fallacy of Einsteinian Hadronic Universes” that academics have apparently conspired to have suppressed. They’re incomprehensible of course, and I don’t read them. But I did read Antifragile. All of it, including the appendix.

Oh, god, where to begin? This is one big ol’ mess of a book. It would be mildly entertaining as an autobiography, and bears a resemblance to Monty Python in places, but it isn’t suppos ...more

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Feb 01, 2013 Janet Eshenroder rated it did not like it

I really tried to finish this e-book (I might not have picked it if I had realized it was so long and would be so hard to stomach). I hate to give an opinion on any book until I've finished and given it every possible chance of redeeming itself. I struggled through more than a third of the 500+ pages before calling it quits. It is just not worth wasting the time.
The author has such a pompous view of himself that the first quarter of the book left me positively nauseated. I tried to put personal I really tried to finish this e-book (I might not have picked it if I had realized it was so long and would be so hard to stomach). I hate to give an opinion on any book until I've finished and given it every possible chance of redeeming itself. I struggled through more than a third of the 500+ pages before calling it quits. It is just not worth wasting the time.
The author has such a pompous view of himself that the first quarter of the book left me positively nauseated. I tried to put personal feelings aside, giving the benefit of the doubt (perhaps he was "challenging" my old mindsets), and focusing on the ideas. I read on because of so many positive reviews.

For a while the book did get better. There was less of the author talking about himself as brilliant and misunderstood (or resented) and more about his actual ideas. There were some good ideas, though I found little that has not been put forth before, using other terms of definition. Perhaps some of these concepts aren't common knowledge, but neither is it the first time anybody had an insight on these points.

He liked keeping most systems simple and unregulated. No big business or big government. He usually railed on government regulations, though he believed in "staunch intervention in some areas, such as ecology or to limit the economic distortions and moral hazards caused by large corporations." Since no one can even out the ups and downs of life, his advice to individuals was a "dumbbell approach" of balancing stability with risks, rather than trying for safety in the middle. Anticipate the worst and build in redundant or independent systems,quit relying on past history and "tweaking" the established system if you want true safety in a changing and unpredictable world. No problem with many of his points, but they are not radically new.I find it annoying that the author makes up his own words to identify concepts already adequately defined elsewhere.

Reading this book was like being stuck on vacation with a know-it-all conspiracy theorist who never lets up. The nicest way another reviewer put it was that he was like Crazy Uncle Fred who's decided he sees the answer to the big problem but people in general are too stupid to see and acknowledge true genius when they meet it in person. There you are, stuck at the table, unable to politely slip away.

The author rambles, he rants, he sees no reason to let an editor review his work (it needed a good editor). There are good ideas that could have been covered using far less "ink."

I'd suggest reading the reviews and gleaning the few interesting ideas presented, rather than buying the book and struggling through 500+ pages. ...more

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Jan 05, 2013 Jeffrey (Akiva) Savett rated it liked it

In the conclusion of this book, Taleb reports that a friend of his asked him to explain his core argument while standing on one foot. Obviously an allusion to the famous story in which a gentile promises to convert if Rabbi Hillel can explain Judaism while standing on one foot, Taleb offers, "the best way to verify if you are alive is to check whether you like variations."

I'll admit at the beginning of this review: there were sections of this book I had to skip. More on why in a bit.

Taleb's the In the conclusion of this book, Taleb reports that a friend of his asked him to explain his core argument while standing on one foot. Obviously an allusion to the famous story in which a gentile promises to convert if Rabbi Hillel can explain Judaism while standing on one foot, Taleb offers, "the best way to verify if you are alive is to check whether you like variations."

I'll admit at the beginning of this review: there were sections of this book I had to skip. More on why in a bit.

Taleb's thesis is that modernity is the attempt of human beings to turn the random into the predictable and stable, and that this attempt ironically causes MORE randomness and disorder. Taleb demonstrates that in evolution, economics, philosophy, ethics, politics and elsewhere, the "Antifragile," things which BENEFIT and get STRONGER due to stressors are the rule, not the exception. He believes that modernity, and our attempts to make our lives predictable and orderly only bring FRAGILITY, which either gets WEAKER with stressors or at best, barely survives stressors intact.

This seems very compelling. Given my personal medical history as a Crohn's sufferer who has undergone five surgeries, the prospect that all of this suffering is actually making me STRONGER and more resilient rather than broken and weaker is inspiring. Taleb doesn't pretend that this theory is novel; indeed, much of his evidence is derived from ancient and classical wisdom and cultures. He notes that the maxim "what doesn't kill you makes you stronger," isn't NEW, just that it's almost completely ignored by policy makers, economists, parents who try to protect their children from all harm, and his previous colleagues in risk management positions.

HOWEVER, and this is a big however, I find Taleb's tone and style incredibly off-putting. It's clear that he has an axe to grind with Ivy League educated leaders and policy makers. He even coins a particularly destructive pattern of fragile thought "Harvard/Soviet" something or other. In constantly trying to position himself as an Everyman speaking in the voice "Fat Tony" from Brooklyn, Taleb fails at every turn to NOT sound like an arrogant, long winded, elitist. Anyone whose short bio on the back flap describes him as "a flaneur meditating in cafes," is going to have trouble connecting with the reader. Don't be ashamed, I had to look up "flaneur" as well. It's someone who spends his or her time WALKING in a meditative and philosophical manner in the spirit of Montaigne. Wow. Another reviewer, who actually LIKED the book, described Taleb as an asshole. Unlike her, I find his personal "ass-holier-than-thou-ness" inseparable from his argument.

So Taleb is QUITE in love with the sound of his own voice and his verbosity, intentionally obscure chapter titles, and inability to maintain a straightforward argument free of bombast is the reason I found it impossible to read this book from cover to cover.

Perhaps the problem is as simple as this: Taleb's central thesis about antifragility is written on the cover. It's interesting. It's a compelling idea. And really, Taleb could have devoted 35 concentrated pages advising us how to better embrace random events and stressors (Black Swans he calls them in his previous book) at work, in raising our children, and with regard to our own health. That would have been a five star endeavor and could have appeared as a lengthy New Yorker feature. But the room that a book length work gives Taleb to stretch out his legs is to his detriment. He is in dire need of editor unafraid to be called "too stupid to understand" to rein in his oversized ego and overwrought style.

I am left interested and disappointed. Not a pleasant feeling after devoting so much time and concentration following Taleb's circuitous verbal "flaneur-ing." ...more

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Jan 22, 2013 Herve rated it it was amazing

Here’s probably one of the toughest review I ever had to write and I am not sure it is a good one, even if the topic I am addressing is great and important. But it’s been a challenge to summarize what I learnt: Nicholas Nassim Taleb gives in this follow-up to the Black Swan a very interesting analysis of how the world can be less exposed to Black Swans, not by becoming more robust only, but by becoming antifragile, i.e. by benefiting from random events. His views include tensions between the ind ...more

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Apr 08, 2018 Mehrsa rated it it was ok

What hilariously self-important hypocrisy! I should give it 5 stars though just because it's nice to read a book that makes your blood boil and that helps you crystalize your world view.

Let me say up front that I wholeheartedly agree with the nugget of his thesis, which is basically (though he would claim it's much more original than this): what doesn't kill you makes your stronger. Basically, we need to embrace certain kinds of shocks and risks and that developing anti-fragility is key. I also ...more

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Nov 18, 2017 Douglas Wilson rated it it was amazing

Shelves: culture-studies

I really enjoyed Taleb’s book The Black Swan, and picked up his Antifragile shortly after it came out. I started it, and was enjoying it, but stalled out for some reason. I don’t remember. It was dark. They were big. His book found itself in my lamentably large and scattered collection of partly read books. But somewhere in my mind was the thought of finishing it, which I just did a short time ago. Really glad I did.

There are places here and there where you have to tolerate some dogmatic bombast I really enjoyed Taleb’s book The Black Swan, and picked up his Antifragile shortly after it came out. I started it, and was enjoying it, but stalled out for some reason. I don’t remember. It was dark. They were big. His book found itself in my lamentably large and scattered collection of partly read books. But somewhere in my mind was the thought of finishing it, which I just did a short time ago. Really glad I did.

There are places here and there where you have to tolerate some dogmatic bombast from Taleb—he is the kind of guy, as the saying goes, who is “sometimes wrong, but never in doubt”—but the central thesis of this book is pure gold.

Some might want to dismiss his central thesis as a glib attempt to prove that when the going gets tough, the tough get going. Taleb knows this, but so did your grandmother. The real point of the book has to do with what toughness actually looks like, how it behaves, how it configures itself before the going gets tough—in short, how does it anticipate the inevitable tough times? And this is where Taleb’s point gets really interesting and is entirely counterintuitive.

Institutions, corporations, management systems, biological organisms can be fragile, robust, or antifragile. According to Taleb, fragile systems require predictability. They want the environment to be placid, and they want as much protection as possible from external stressors. Robust systems do okay when they are in trouble; they are resilient. But antifragile systems are complicated, and they positively thrive in the midst of chaos. Chaos is the soil in which they grow and flourish.

In peaceful times, a fragile system can give out the appearance of stability, but this is just a mask for the fragility. And because it is easy to be foolish, many people strive for just that appearance. Not many people know that the house built on sand had a five-star rating.

“Therefore whosoever heareth these sayings of mine, and doeth them, I will liken him unto a wise man, which built his house upon a rock: And the rain descended, and the floods came, and the winds blew, and beat upon that house; and it fell not: for it was founded upon a rock. And every one that heareth these sayings of mine, and doeth them not, shall be likened unto a foolish man, which built his house upon the sand: And the rain descended, and the floods came, and the winds blew, and beat upon that house; and it fell: and great was the fall of it” (Matt. 7:24–27).

That’s your fragile system, right there.

Two historical examples of fragile systems that did not appear to be at all fragile were the Soviet Union prior to its collapse, and medieval Christendom prior to the Reformation. When subsequent events overtook them—the kind of rare but extreme happening that Taleb calls a Black Swan—their fragility was exposed.

Fragile systems are cowardly, and function in a CYA mode much of the time. Because the world is filled with risk, the way that fragile systems manage this is by trying to outsource the risk. But the best way to cultivate an antifragile system is not through recklessness, but by means of a carefully thought-through “skin in the game” approach.

A lot of pastors could benefit from gleaning the principles found in this book. They want to build a peaceful church that is free of controversy, and so instead they build a fragile one that is entirely vulnerable to controversy. In the name of fighting off infections, they put their immune system under a ban. The elders issue a chin-stroking statement that antibodies are the troublers of the body.

In case anybody is still curious about it, the applications for the Reformed evangelical network in North America are numerous. I can’t tell you how many times I have heard pastors insisting on fragility as though it were one of the fruits of the Spirit. They demand cultivation of fragility as though it were a cardinal virtue. And because this is how the world works, what they have insisted upon they have certainly gotten. Fragility is our middle name.

“And he gave them their request; But sent leanness into their soul” (Psalm 106:15).
...more

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Apr 21, 2019 Andy rated it it was ok · review of another edition

Reading this audiobook is like being stuck on a long flight next to an intelligent but cranky old man who won't stop talking for 12 hours about random factoids and pet peeves that he tells you are all connected somehow by some grand concept except he never dives deep enough on any part of his stream of consciousness discourse to really clarify what the radical paradigm shifting theory is because as far as you can tell it sounds a lot like what people in psychology have been calling resilience/co ...more

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Apr 27, 2014 Mark Galassi rated it did not like it

I could not point to a worse book that I have read.

The author is disorganized and throws a bunch of random factoids together with an unconvincing unifying theme. The lack of clarity in thinking is reminiscent of the kind of pseudo-intellectual numerology or fact-correlating that you find in works of fiction, but it is made even worse by the fact that the author seems to have a long list of axes to grind, and fills the book with petty name calling. Why is he so obsessed with the "soviet-harvard c ...more

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Jun 13, 2013 David rated it did not like it

pretty interesting basic idea that some things are not just robust/resilient/non-fragile (able to stay the same or bounce back after being subjected to stress) but actually "antifragile" or improved from their encounters with stress or disorder. An obvious example is the stress/recovery/supercompensation cycle with strenuous exercise, such that you come back from the challenge improved. He applies it much more broadly -- medicine, economic system, evolution, etc. Highly erudite writer. Makes som ...more

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Jul 05, 2015 Thomas rated it did not like it

Shelves: not-worth-finishing, worst-of-2010s

A truly dreadful text.

The author is an extremely poor writer, both in command of language (see "non-sissy risk") and in general structure. He is also rather egomaniacal.

The claims made are either commonsensical (see other reviews) or simply wrong. Take the argument that the consolidation of the banking sector caused the recent financial crisis. The Canadian and Australian banking sectors are extremely concentrated in a handful of firms, yet both countries did not endure systemic banking crises ...more

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Oct 26, 2020 Moeen Sahraei rated it it was amazing

Greatest book ever written in this subject, very practical in real life. Nassim Taleb is one of the greatest sage of the current era

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Jan 09, 2019 Michael O'Brien rated it really liked it

Another thought-provoking book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in the succession of his prior books, "Fooled by Randomness" and "The Black Swan", where, well before the 2008 Great Recession, his analysis of the limitations of statistical methods predicted such an event. Such events occur, ones with low predicted probability but high consequence, largely because of a misplaced confidence in the reliability of estimates and forecasts on complex systems with multiple variables --- in which a small variati Another thought-provoking book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in the succession of his prior books, "Fooled by Randomness" and "The Black Swan", where, well before the 2008 Great Recession, his analysis of the limitations of statistical methods predicted such an event. Such events occur, ones with low predicted probability but high consequence, largely because of a misplaced confidence in the reliability of estimates and forecasts on complex systems with multiple variables --- in which a small variation on the prediction of any one of them can result in profoundly different, unexpected outcomes.

From Taleb's previous works, we learn of the fallibility and limitations in our ability to predict and, therefore, anticipate the rare, extreme event. "Antifragile" attempts to build on this. In this, Taleb is moderately successful. I was thinking, before I read this, that Taleb might point out ways in which we can eliminate fragility in a system, and, better yet, create a system or situation where one can actually gain from volatility --- becoming "antifragile". But "Antifragile" doesn't really do this in my opinion. What it does better is helping one identify situations that are "fragile" --- ones that produce only modest gains, but, with volatility or chaos, can has disastrous outcomes.

For example, Taleb points out the agency problem -- one such as in major corporations or in large governments --- where the manager is not the true owner so he follows a cosmetically sound strategy, but in a hidden way benefits him and makes him antifragile at the expense (fragility) of the true owners or society. Limited liability corporations and big bureaucracies do not come off well in Taleb's analysis --- he shows that organizations with the agency problem do not flourish long term in comparison with others such privately held companies and entrepreneurs. The degree of "skin in the game" of those taking the risks are a good way to assess the level of fragility or antifragility of a system --- and such as entrepreneurs, because they are all in on the risks they take, are, therefore, more likely to respond better to volatility than these others.

Another original term in this book that Taleb coins is "neomania" --- that tendency in human nature to embrace the new for its own sake --- often without sufficient regard for the added complexity to systems that may be added. And, as Taleb shows throughout his work, as complexity increases, so do the variables, each with its own added unknown level of uncertainties. As I read this, I reflected on the replacement in most vehicles of mechanical windows with power windows --- the mechanical window reliable and cheap to repair if it fails. On the other hand, the power window, in return for a modest convenience and novelty, being very expensive to repair when it inevitably fails to work.

Another interesting concept Taleb discusses is the "green lumber fallacy" --- mistaking the source of important or even necessary knowledge for another less visible from the outside, less tractable one. Taleb uses as an illustration a well-known, highly successful trader on green lumber on the commodity exchange who flourished for decades --- yet thought through his career that he was trading lumber painted green instead of green timber --- yet whose use of heuristics and trial and error knowledge gained by experience made him brilliant in trading, notwithstanding his lack of knowledge about the actual commodity in which he traded.

So, in reading this book, no, I did not actually learn how to implement antifragility --- which in many cases is not possible, but I did learn from reading this book how better to recognize situations in which antifragility exists and ones vulnerable to fragility. Very thought-provoking --- especially where America's future is concerned. One major indicator of fragility --- high indebtedness!

...more

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Apr 14, 2013 Filip rated it did not like it

I just can't continue this book. This guy is SO full of himself. Not to mention that he keeps contradicting himself, based on whatever he feels like ...more

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Aug 11, 2013 Will rated it did not like it

What a self-centered jerk with an overly simplistic premise. Paraphrased 'Do those things which, regardless of outcome, make you better able to handle change.'

I just saved you from listening to his blathering and bragging. ...more

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Mar 30, 2020 Shane Parrish rated it it was amazing

"Indeed, our bodies discover probabilities in a very sophisticated manner and assess risks much better than our intellects do. To take one example, risk management professionals look in the past for information on the so-called worst-case scenario and use it to estimate future risks—this method is called “stress testing.” They take the worst historical recession, the worst war, the worst historical move in interest rates, or the worst point in unemployment as an exact estimate for the worst futu ...more

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Jan 16, 2013 Jurgen Appelo rated it it was amazing · review of another edition

Shelves: social-complexity

Well researched important concepts presented with flair, if you can stomach the prose, and the tantrums.

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Jan 29, 2017 Tim Pendry rated it really liked it · review of another edition

Shelves: cultural-studies, public-policy, business, north-american, economics

This is not an easy book to review so let us start with the basics. I recommend it despite its flaws. There is a lot of truth, albeit approached with a dose of healthy scepticism, in Taleb's critical view of how our society has developed and how we lack courage in facing our own condition within it.

The basic thesis is not as simple as he likes to pretend in his Conclusion but suffice it to say that he sees our total existence as enhanced in the long run in every way by disorder - you could call ...more

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Dec 01, 2012 P rated it it was amazing

The Black Swan is one of the three books that have influenced me the most so my expectations for this book could not be higher. This exceeded my expectations. I half-expected to see Kanye West listed among his acknowledgements because this book has swagger. Taleb calls out those he disapproves by name (Tom Friedman, Alan Greenspan, and Joseph Stiglitz receive direct criticism), and takes full credit for what he gets right. In The Black Swan, Taleb makes an offhand reference to how an aside in an The Black Swan is one of the three books that have influenced me the most so my expectations for this book could not be higher. This exceeded my expectations. I half-expected to see Kanye West listed among his acknowledgements because this book has swagger. Taleb calls out those he disapproves by name (Tom Friedman, Alan Greenspan, and Joseph Stiglitz receive direct criticism), and takes full credit for what he gets right. In The Black Swan, Taleb makes an offhand reference to how an aside in an earlier book (Fooled by Randomness) about planes hitting NYC financial district office buildings correctly predicted certain events. This time, Taleb makes an effort to build up a footnote in The Black Swan about Fannie Mae “sitting on a barrel of dynamite” into how he was “telling everyone, including cab drivers” about the collapse of the banking sector. He contradicts himself when discussing his prohibition to read any books written in the last 50 years, because he recommends recent works, by, among others, Guy Deutscher and John Gray. It would be more effective if Taleb’s advice on this front was simply, “Kill your television, read everything, and think for yourself.”

“Antifragile” is a term Taleb invented to mean the exact opposite of fragile. The key binary in The Black Swan was Extremistan/Mediocristan, and the key triad here is fragile/robust/antifragile. The easiest way for me to conceptualize the triad is through comic book characters. (Taleb does not do this, but I find that the following example explains the idea.) Bruce Wayne is fragile (He loses his parents, girlfriend, and all his money), Superman is robust (nothing can hurt him), and Batman is antifragile (He learns from his mistakes, adapts to his surroundings, and is most valuable when there is a crisis).

A useful element of antifragility is captured in the phrase “post-traumatic growth.” An example of this is the famous Nike commercial where Michael Jordan says, “I have failed over and over again in my life, and that is why I succeed.” The core concept, of getting better from being exposed to changes, is more intuitive, less technical, and possibly more generally applicable than the concept of “Black Swans” (rare, high-impact events that are only able to be explained after they occur). Taleb deftly addresses the relationship between “antifragile” and the maxim “What does not kill me makes me stronger.”

Going into specifics, Taleb discusses the mental health industry, and proudly admits to what a soccer mom would quickly diagnose as a combination of ADD and manic depression. This makes this book either constantly entertaining or impenetrably disjointed. As someone with a similar mental makeup to the author, I find it falls in the former category. Taleb fearlessly takes his idea wherever he wants, which allows a reader with a sprinkle of ADD to draw connections on top of Taleb’s connections. Three stood out to me. First, his idea of ever-increasing fragility is similar to the model created by Hyman Minsky. Second, his argument in favor of old pieces of art mirrors that of George Orwell, who wrote that the test for the value of art was survival. I don’t know if my descendants will have access to Apple products (despite Taleb’s love for Steve Jobs and Silicon Valley), but they will have access to Seneca and Montaigne. Finally, like Tyler Durden, Taleb advocates starting street fights (preferably with people in suits), rejecting mindless consumerism, the downfall of major corporations (especially credit card corporations), dying for one’s ideas, and behaving like you have nothing to lose. Just like I felt when I read The Black Swan and Fooled by Randomness for the first time, I look forward to rereading this book. ...more

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About Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb spent 21 years as a risk taker (quantitative trader) before becoming a flaneur and researcher in philosophical, mathematical and (mostly) practical problems with probability.  

Taleb is the author of a multivolume essay, the Incerto (The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, and Skin in the Game) an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human erro ...more

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“The psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer has a simple heuristic. Never ask the doctor what you should do. Ask him what he would do if he were in your place. You would be surprised at the difference” — 217 likes

“Few understand that procrastination is our natural defense, letting things take care of themselves and exercise their antifragility; it results from some ecological or naturalistic wisdom, and is not always bad -- at an existential level, it is my body rebelling against its entrapment. It is my soul fighting the Procrustean bed of modernity.” — 206 likes

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