Still Not Buying It
THIS IS ABOUT my crypto journey. Spoiler alert: I still don���t own any.
My journey began in 2013, when I was serving as an assistant principal in Philadelphia. Since I was always giving advice on our 403(b) plan based on my voracious reading of personal finance blogs, a colleague asked what I thought about bitcoin and whether she should invest. Back then, the price was well under $100���close to $30, I think. I dismissively told her to avoid it. Too speculative. Stocks, I assured her, were a far better place to put her money.
Three jobs later, with bitcoin now more in the national consciousness, I decided to take a closer look. It was 2018, and the price had recently dropped from $15,000 to below $4,000. While that was far above the price at which I deemed it too speculative, I again reassured myself that it was too risky and pointed to the sharp decline as evidence that my initial instinct was correct. No, I told myself, bitcoin wasn���t a wise investment.
Over the past few years, I���ve continued to go back and forth as cryptocurrencies in general, and bitcoin in particular, have hit amazing new highs, including bitcoin���s peak of almost $69,000 late last year. During these buying frenzies, I���d kick myself and calculate what my return would have been had I just embraced the risk, even with a small amount of money.
But I still haven���t invested because I���m also acutely aware of the precipitous falls, with bitcoin under $30,000 as I write this. I still can���t see why this thing should go up, even with the past decade of returns to look at. I���m sure this is some behavioral finance bias. But my gut tells me to stay away.
As I root for my Celtics in the NBA finals, I was hit with a new crypto-revelation. Steph Curry is the face of a crypto trading platform. Multiple sports arenas now have crypto names. Some athletes even get paid in crypto. High school students talk about crypto as though it���s the investment option. There���s a belief that crypto is a sure thing���and that belief is being evangelized aggressively.
The upshot: If someone asked me today whether to buy, I���d be even more cautious. All of this smells like a bubble, one that���ll ultimately damage those who arrive late to the party. Almost a decade after I first thumbed my nose at crypto, I��realize I might be wrong. But stocks still strike me as a better bet.
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