Douglas A. Macgregor's Blog, page 9

How agile companies are providing AI tools to operators

As the Pentagon works to accelerate innovation in areas like artificial intelligence, a key question is how government contracting evolves to open the door to agile non-traditional defense companies. We talked about why this matters with RAFT Founder and CEO Shubi Mishra, and how its AI products and data software solve problems for operators.

Air Force general pledges to ‘get Sentinel done,’ expects Milestone B in 2027

AFA 2025 — An ongoing restructuring of the Sentinel ICBM program is expected to culminate in a new Milestone B decision by mid-2027, a key metric for a troubled program that Brig. Gen. William Rogers said today he has “every intention” of having fully operational before 2050.

“We’ll get Sentinel done, I am confident, before we would be ready to start fielding” a service life extension for the Minuteman III missiles that Sentinel is meant to replace, Rogers said in an interview with Breaking Defense and another outlet on the sidelines of the Air and Space Forces Association conference here.

The Government Accountability Office recently found the MMIII fleet could operate until 2050, but Rogers said Air Force officials were primarily trying to determine exactly how long the legacy missiles could last.

“So that date, I charged the team to plan to 2050 because, not because I don’t think I’m gonna crush that date with Sentinel. I have every intention of beating that,” he said. Instead, that date was forecast to correctly understand the “buffer on the back end, because this is the land leg of our nuclear triad.” Previously, Rogers said that the Air Force assessed the MMIII missiles, which are maintained by Boeing, could operate until 2045. 

“I said, ‘Let’s go five more years and just take a look at what that would mean,’” he said.

Sentinel is in the midst of a widespread literal and fiscal restructuring after in July 2024 Pentagon officials announced that the program, led by prime contractor Northrop Grumman, suffered a projected cost breach of roughly 81 percent. The Pentagon in the process pegged a new pricetag for Sentinel at $141 billion, a number that Rogers said Air Force officials are treating as a “cap.” 

The Pentagon’s review also rescinded the program’s Milestone B decision, DoD parlance for the approval of a program to enter engineering and manufacturing development (EMD). The new Milestone B decision planned for 2027, which must be approved by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, would formally restart the EMD phase, even as work is ongoing. The Air Force plans to acquire 634 Sentinel missiles and an additional 25 for EMD. 

“Our nationwide industry team has made substantial progress under the EMD contract, maturing Sentinel’s design and reducing risk as we prepare for production and deployment of this essential, national security capability,” a Northrop Grumman spokesperson said in a statement.

“We’ve tested every segment of Sentinel, including recent static fire qualification tests on stage 1 and stage 2 segments, we’ve resumed silo design work and made progress designing and testing support equipment. We will continue to work closely with the Air Force to restructure the program to meet the Air Force’s cost and schedule requirements. At this time, we defer questions about the timeline for milestone B to the Air Force Public Affairs Office,” they added.

Although the restructuring temporarily halted some aspects like the design of silos and launch centers, “There’s not much paused at all,” Rogers said. “And, in fact, we paused very little on the program overall,” he added, pointing to work that continued like the development of the Sentinel missile itself. 

Earlier this year, Air Force officials revealed they no longer plan to reuse hundreds of Minuteman III silos to house the forthcoming Sentinel, and instead will now dig new silos, also known as launch facilities. The change is largely driven by discoveries in recent years, according to Rogers, including the need to remediate the presence of asbestos and lead paint, along with “unexpected variations” in the silos’ concrete.

Through updated market research conducted as part of the Sentinel’s restructuring, “The business case was actually better in terms of cost and schedule for just rebuilding new [silos] on the same sites,” Rogers said. 

Rogers said a key way to speed up Sentinel, with attendant benefits like lowering costs, comes in the silo’s design itself. According to the general, a new approach now entails more simple modules “that can be built in a centralized spot” and shipped onsite for easier construction. 

Drilling new silos also affords the opportunity to “mitigate” risks for fitting the Sentinel, which is somewhat larger than its MMIII predecessor, in existing silos. A new silo design would ameliorate those risks, Roger said, and provide more space to maintainers for upkeep. 

As Breaking Defense previously reported, the Air Force recently took its first MMIII silo offline at F.E. Warren Air Force Base in Wyoming. Rogers said that launch facility is the only silo decertified so far, which was shut down to help inform planners of what equipment could be harvested and what steps are required in the process.

When the Air Force originally awarded the Sentinel contract, the service charged Sentinel prime contractor with laying cabling for the missiles’ facilities. As part of the restructuring, a mutual decision was made to reassign that cabling work to the Army Corps of Engineers that for now is focused at F.E. Warren, which Rogers said could in turn more aptly task better equipped telecommunications companies.  

“Some parts of Sentinel’s infrastructure work — like laying fiber across hundreds of remote missile field sites — may be done more affordably by those who specialize in it every day. Rather than having Northrop perform that work, the Air Force and our industry partners agreed it makes more sense to leverage alternate methodologies, such as leveraging the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers as the design and construction agent for the utility corridor at F.E. Warren, along with local subcontractors,” Rogers said.

“This approach taps into community expertise and strengthens the local industrial base that supports our mission. We’ll also remain flexible with who performs the work to keep the program on cost and schedule while delivering the best quality product,” he added.

The recent GAO review also found that the Air Force could reintroduce multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs) for the MMIII fleet to mitigate potential delays with Sentinel, a previous feature of the missiles that was removed due to arms control requirements. Rogers acknowledged that a decision to re-MIRV the MMIII would require a policy change by the US government, though he said such a decision would be technically feasible. 

“Would I be postured to support [it] if I was given the order? Yes,” he said.

Embraer, SNC pushing A-29 for counter-drone mission

AFA 2025 — Embraer and Sierra Nevada Corp. are eyeing a new mission set for the A-29 Super Tucano, pitching the turboprop as an option for the growing counter-unmanned aerial system (cUAS) market.

The benefit, executives from the two firms told Breaking Defense, comes down to a slower-moving jet with a low cost-per-hour to operate — more in line with the speed and cost of a drone.

“Lots of weapons, long loiter time, cost effective to take care of that drone. You don’t need a bespoke F-35 at eleventy billion dollars an hour, right? You can do this in a very cost effective way,” said Ray Fitzgerald, senior vice president for strategy at SNC.

Embraer Defense’s Chief Commercial Officer, Frederico Lemos, highlighted the kind of package an A-29 can carry as a good match for the cUAS mission, whether kinetic or non-kinetic options.

“Matching speeds, excellent connectivity. You can receive a lot of intel to address the threat with the right type of platform,” he said. “You have the machine gun, cannon, you have the rockets, you have the sensor, the right sensor, you have the communications and networking with A-29.”

Asked whether the companies were pushing the cUAS mission or it was something countries approached them about, Fitzgerald said it was “a little bit of both.”

“We do present it, but a lot of people are calling going, hey, I don’t need to put my F-16 or F-18 up against it, or F-35 God forbid, right,” Fitzgerald said. “The dollars per hour those don’t make sense.”

The two men were talking Monday at the annual Air and Space Forces Associations conference outside Washington. They also announced a new deal where SNC is buying an A-29 from Embraer in advance of an expected Foreign Military Sales case that will be announced in the future.

Getting that plane underway means the customer can get ahead of maintenance, pilot training and systems integration — in what Lemos said could cut the timeline for the future customer down by a full year. The A-29 will be produced at the two firms’ joint facility in Jacksonville, Fla., which has been operating at low production levels in recent years. A year ago, Embraer executives warned Breaking Defense of a looming “production gap” at the plant.

However, this week Lemos said the company is “very positive” about future orders out of Jacksonville.

“We are seeing a strong demand from the market, addressing both past challenges in terms of operations and upcoming challenges,” Lemos said. “We see the counter-UAS kind of mission and how relevant the A-29 can also be for this kind of mission”

Space Force working on future operations plan to guide investment

AFA 2025 — The Space Force is planning for operations up to 15 years in the future based on expected adversary developments as a foundation for investment, Chief of Space Operations Gen. Chance Saltzman said today.

“Delivering today’s systems is critical, but we’re also building the architecture of the future and making sure we’re prepared for what our adversaries might do next. A small team of planners and strategists have been focused on our five-year, 10-year and 15-year plans so we know where to invest to stay ahead,” he told the annual Air and Space Force Association conference in National Harbor, Md.

“To do this, we look closely at what our adversaries can do today and what we expect them to be able to do in the future. The combination of this analysis, intelligence and strategy will be formally captured in a document called the Future Operating Environment, which will serve as an authoritative source for requirements planning,” Saltzman said.

“The Future Operating Environment is going to be an important document for us,” he told reporters in a roundtable after his speech.

He explained that the conceptual foundation of the document is focused on three separate questions:

what missions the Space Force is being tapped to perform now and in the future, and what missions, if any, might they need to relinquish;what is the threat environment now and what will it look like in five, 10 and 15 years down the road; and“what technologies are progressing” that might provide the Space Force an advantage or vice versa provide advantage to adversaries?

Saltzman told reporters that he hopes to publish both an unclassified and classified version of the Future Operating Environment in order to ensure a wide circulation — if possible by the end of the year, although he said his priority is to get the first one right rather than move it out too quickly.

The future requirement plan, in turn, will allow the service to “design and publish our objective force,” which he explained is “the what, when and how many for space systems, support structures and manpower — all of the elements of a combat-credible force.” This process not only will “provide clarity” to the Space Force on “mission requirements and resources,” it also will help the service inform industry on its present and future needs, he added.

Saltzman’s address largely focused on issues related to Space Force acquisition — an issue of keen interest to the service’s congressional overseers.

“Acquisitions and sustainment are not just support functions. They’re a war fighting imperative,” he said. “Right now, as I see it, we have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to revolutionize how we develop and deliver the space systems our nation needs, and because of this opportunity, I’m here to tell you the Space Force stands postured to take decisive action.”

As one example, Saltzman noted that the Space Force has rebranded the Space Systems Command’s “Front Door” website portal to reflect the enlargement of its operations.

“We’ve just relaunched it as the ‘Space Force Front Door,’ building on past success to gather innovative ideas from industry. Your concepts are now vetted against the needs of the organizations, beyond just SSC, including all Space Force equities, broader department needs, other government agencies and even allies. If it’s a good match, we’ll connect you with the right office to see where your great ideas might enable our mission,” he said.

Saltzman also elaborated on how the service is building its acquisition workforce and training Guardians to oversee how the service spends its “nearly $23 billion” fiscal 2025 budget, with a focus on speeding capability to warfighters in the joint force.

This issue of how much priority the service has been putting on acquisition competence has been a sore point among some in Congress, including the powerful chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, Rep. Mike Rogers, R.-Ala., and ranking member Rep. Adam Smith, D.-Wash. 

“I’ve had multiple engagements this summer on Capitol Hill about funding, staffing, training for the acquisition workforce,” Saltzman said.

“Developing and delivering space war fighting capability is a vital part of our DNA as a service. The time has come for us to focus on enhancing the speed and effectiveness of our deliveries, because if we fall behind and Joint Force and the nation will feel the consequences,” he stressed.

Next-generation KC-390 Millennium expands multimission options for air forces

Russia’s war in Ukraine has underscored the need for survivable transport and tanker aircraft that can keep supplies and aircraft flying under fire. In the Pacific, U.S. planners are eyeing China’s ability to strike large, fixed bases, making dispersed operations a necessity. Across both theaters, allies are searching for platforms that do short takeoff and landing on unimproved or damaged airstrips, can quickly reconfigure between missions, and keep operating with minimal downtime.

Traditional workhorses like the C-130 and C-17 have served admirably, but both date back to Cold War designs. They remain indispensable, yet their age and limitations are increasingly evident against modern threats. Agile combat employment,  the doctrine driving the U.S. Air Force and international air forces, demands a new generation of transport that can operate faster, farther, and with greater functionality.

This is the space where Embraer has positioned its new KC-390 Millennium multi-mission aircraft. The KC-390 is a faster, more survivable, and more affordable alternative to other platforms, and is capable of switching between numerous missions including airlift, air refueling, search and rescue, medical evacuation and Arctic operations. It has already been selected by 11 nations, including 8 European countries and 7 NATO members, and has been flying operationally since 2019.

“The KC-390 is not just a transport, it’s a force multiplier,” said Pete Castor, retired USAF colonel and director of business development and sales for Embraer Defense & Security. “The KC-390 provides unique capabilities across the breadth of airlift, tanking, firefighting, medevac, and special ops — all things I saw U.S. units perform regularly. But here, they’re rolled into one jet.”

That multi-mission flexibility stems from design choices baked in from the start. Every aircraft comes off the production line already plumbed for aerial refueling. Operators can add underwing probe-and-drogue pods, and a boom system is under development by Embraer in anticipation of U.S. Air Force requirements.

The cargo bay was optimized by moving wheel wells outside, giving loadmasters more space and tie-down options. A longer ramp lowers the incline, making it possible to roll on platforms that require alteration to fit into a C-130. HIMARS rolls on and Black Hawk helicopters fit without removing rotor heads or the blades.

The result is rapid reconfiguration for missions shift in under 4 hours, not days. Roll-on/roll-off kits add modular firefighting tanks or containerized medical systems. During the Paris Air Show, the Netherlands announced it will use the KC-390 for critical-care evacuation with intensive-care modules that roll aboard as needed.

Speed, survivability, and connectivity

The KC-390’s performance also sets it apart. Powered by twin Pratt & Whitney/IAE V2500 turbofans, maximum cruise speed is Mach 0.8 with a 36,000 foot altitude ceiling, covering distances faster than the C-130 while burning about the same fuel. 

“A six-hour C-130 mission into the Amazon was four hours and 20 minutes in the KC-390,” explained Pete Castor. “That speed means crews don’t have to overnight, the aircraft can return sooner, and you can send it right back out.”

Other performance attributes include maximum concentrated and distributed payload of 55,320 and 50,606 pounds, respectively; range of 1,470 nm with 50,700 pounds; and a ferry range of 3,370 nm.

Survivability was another design driver. The KC-390 can operate from austere or damaged runways with its rugged landing gear, high ground clearance, and engines mounted to avoid foreign object damage. In addition, its open architecture allows customers to install the survivability suite they prefer, whether that is laser and radar warning or other defensive aids. 

That same architecture enables advanced connectivity. With space, power, and wiring built in, the aircraft can integrate line-of-sight, beyond-line-of-sight, and satellite communications. Data links let special forces, for example, stream video to the KC-390 and back to command centers in real time. 

“You can use it as a node in a larger network,” Castor said. “That’s exactly what air forces want today: awareness, connectivity, and flexibility.”

Embraer’s design of the KC-390 emphasizes flexibility, such as a longer cargo ramp and external wheel wells to maximize usable space. (Embraer image)

The aircraft also brings cockpit features uncommon to tactical transports. Collins Aerospace’s Pro Line Fusion avionics suite, more familiar to business jet crews than military pilots, provides intuitive displays, enhanced vision system, synthetic vision, and high reliability. Combined with a head-up (HUD) display that simplifies airdrops and approach work, the system reduces workload and increases mission precision. 

“When performing an airdrop with the KC-390, the aircraft’s advanced algorithm continuously calculates and adjusts release parameters in real time, ensuring exceptional accuracy. And with the HUD giving the crew outstanding awareness, the whole process becomes easier, safer, and more efficient,” said Castor.

Embraer also leaned on its civil aviation pedigree for logistics and support. By applying MSG-3 methodology for on-condition maintenance, the KC-390 achieves high availability and low downtime. For the KC-390, that translates to short checks about every two weeks, a 10-day check once a year, and a 35-day heavy check once every five years – numbers that far surpass what’s necessary on the C-130.

Automated diagnostics tell crews what to replace before failures occur, while the airframe structure is continuously monitored. The result: mission-capable rates above 93 percent and mission completion rates over 99 percent. During the pandemic, the aircraft proved its endurance, flying nonstop relief missions into the Amazon with minimal downtime.

Castor noted that reliability resonates with commanders. “What struck senior Air Force officials is the KC-390’s reliability, as there’s a cost associated with maintaining a platform. With this aircraft, you get high availability at lower lifecycle cost. That’s a game-changer.”

The KC-390 is also deeply tied to U.S. and allied industry. Engines from Pratt & Whitney and avionics from Collins Aerospace are among the American systems that make up more than 52 percent of its content. If the U.S. Air Force commits to a procurement, Embraer has pledged to build it domestically, investing up to $500 million in new facilities.

Castor noted that several U.S. states have expressed interest in hosting production. Embraer has been present in the U.S. for over 46 years and currently manufactures executive jets in Florida and light attack aircraft in Jacksonville. Castor also notes that any KC-390s built in America would also support allied customers. “Whatever’s made here ultimately supports global interoperability,” Castor said.

Already, international demand for the tanker/airlifter is strong. Portugal, for example, took delivery of its first KC-390 in 2023 and immediately flew it to the U.S. to retrieve a Black Hawk, loading it without rotor removal and returning to Lisbon the next day. Hungary operates the aircraft since 2024, and the Netherlands, Austria, Czech Republic are also joining the fleet, underscoring NATO interoperability. South Korea also acquired the KC-390 in 2023. 

The case for the KC-390

Air forces today face contested logistics and myriad needs such as refueling and medevac across Europe and the Indo-Pacific. In many cases, survivability and speed are as critical as payload. The KC-390 Millennium was designed for these scenarios, offering modern jet performance at a cost of ownership closer to older turboprops. Cruising at nearly Mach 0.8, the aircraft covers distance faster than a C-130, yet burns fuel at a comparable rate.

Its design emphasizes flexibility, such as a longer cargo ramp and external wheel wells to maximize usable space. Reconfiguration between missions takes hours rather than days thanks to roll-on/roll-off kits that enable medical evacuation, firefighting, troop transport, in addition to the core aerial refueling and transport functions. 

Survivability is built in, as well, with rugged landing gear, high ground clearance, and open-architecture systems that allow operators to integrate their choice of defensive aids.

Finally, the KC-390 has proven to be reliable in active-duty operations. Presently operated by three nations it has flown pandemic relief missions deep into the Amazon, carried helicopters across the Atlantic, and has proven its capability supporting military operations in Europe.

For operators preparing for agile combat employment, the KC-390 Millennium represents a rare blend of capability, affordability, and resilience.