Jonathan Clements's Blog, page 248
December 1, 2021
Invest Don���t Bet
Let���s start with the similarities. Day-traders���who buy individual stocks in an attempt to make a quick profit���are similar to gamblers at the roulette table. Both are hoping for a lucky play. If the day-traders are buying on margin, then the risk���and the similarity to gambling���only grows. I���ve read studies that day traders make money about 50% of the time. Want to guess what happens the other 50% of the time?
The chances of making money increase greatly when someone invests sensibly. To me, that means a couple of things. First, own a diversified mix of low-cost, tax-efficient index funds. Second, hold them through the inevitable ups and downs of the financial markets���ideally for decades.
In other words, you���re in a good position to make money as an investor by following a few well-known rules. Any casino that paid off for gamblers who followed a similarly simple strategy wouldn���t be around for very long.
Why, then, are investing and gambling so often compared? Well, in the short run, investing can seem like a gamble. You pick a few investments, pony up your hard-earned cash and hope for the best. If your investments go up, it���s because you���re smart. If your investments go down, then you���re unlucky.
Viewed in the short term, the market can deliver a lot of down days. Luck can seem to predominate. Only over the long term does the view improve. Over decades, the odds of gain are far greater in the financial markets than at the craps table.
You may be thinking, ���But casinos and gambling are fun.��� They even give you ���free��� drinks, meals and sometimes even rooms. As someone who has visited a casino once or twice���for research purposes only, of course���I totally agree with you.
If you only gamble what you can afford to lose, then casinos can be a blast. I would also argue that the steak dinners and playoffs tickets offered by stockbrokers are akin to the free drinks and rooms offered by the casino. Someone is paying for them���and it���s probably you.
HumbleDollar contributor Charley Ellis wrote in Winning the Loser���s Game that, ���Investing is not entertainment���it���s a responsibility���and investing is not supposed to be ���interesting.��� It���s a continuous process, like refining petroleum or manufacturing cookies, chemicals, or integrated circuits. If anything in the process is interesting, it���s wrong.���
Does that sound like a good time to you?
Bottom line: If your approach to investing feels like gambling, you���re probably doing it wrong.

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November 30, 2021
Take a Hike
On a recent trip to California to celebrate my retirement, I went on more hikes than I have since I was a teen. Walking about 2�� to 3 miles almost daily for more than a year at home helped prepare me for the rigor. That said, Gainesville���like much of Florida���is flat.
There were paths in most of the places we hiked: Joshua Tree, Death Valley, Pinnacles, Yosemite and the Big Sur coast. But some can be rocky and twisty, and much steeper than the terrain of north Florida. Not so easy for a 65-year-old.
My only mishap was when I was descending a hill in Death Valley���s Artists Palette. I started to fall forward because it was steeper than I expected. Luckily, my son had gone before me and turned around when he heard me falling. He put out his arms and stopped me. I would have fallen on my face, but instead only twisted an ankle.
Otherwise, I did well for an old guy. My son, an experienced hiker, complimented me. Of course, I had to rest more often than he did, but hiking is not a race. I also found it hard to navigate the rocky Mirror Lake trail at Yosemite. We walked about 10 miles that day on the trail and valley floor.
My biggest climb���500 feet in elevation gain���was in Mariposa Grove at the southern end of Yosemite, where you can find sequoia trees. The hike to and from the top was about four miles, and well worth it.
If you���re new to hiking hilly terrain and not in the prime of your life, here are some helpful hints I learned:
Buy hiking shoes. They aren���t cheap, but they provide more grip. I wore Salomon Outline Low GTX shoes, which cost $130 at REI.
Use trekking poles. They add a lot of stability and made me feel more secure. I used Black Diamond poles that I borrowed from my son. They were a great help and can be had for $99.99 on Amazon.
Angle your feet when descending a steep incline and walk as though you���re skiing downhill, from side to side.
Lean slightly back going down a hill and slightly forward going up a hill. This seems obvious, but our nature is to walk upright.
Wear layers of clothes. That way, you can shed some as it gets warmer.
Carry a backpack, so you can bring water and nutritious snacks. You���ll get hungry and you need to hydrate, even if it isn���t hot.
Wear a hat and sunscreen.
Hiking can be done anywhere, and I plan to do more of it. Park fees vary by state. Some are free, but national parks require a $30 admission. If you live close enough to one or more and plan to visit regularly, an all-year pass for $80 is a better value.
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Stuck in the Sand
MY WIFE AND I recently took our first mini-vacation since 2019. We traveled to the Outer Banks in North Carolina for a long weekend to celebrate our anniversary. The weather was perfect, the crowds were small, the food was delectable and the morning sunrise was spectacular. But none of these memories has stuck with me like the one that wasn���t so delightful.
We spent a morning driving up the coast to enjoy the sights and sounds of the small villages and towns along the way, as well as the breathtaking vistas of the Atlantic Ocean. We were surprised when the two-lane road dead-ended on a beach. Four-wheel drive cars were invited to continue with hopes of seeing some of the wild horses who have roamed the beach for centuries. We own a four-wheel drive car, but I���d never driven on a beach before and my instincts were telling me, ���Don���t do it.���
We went ahead anyway.
Within two minutes, we were stuck in the sand. Revving the engine and spinning the wheels made the situation worse, as did the non-loving words my wife and I exchanged. After finding no help in the owner���s manual, we got out to see what we could do. People driving by yelled, ���Let the air out of the tires.��� We got on our hands and knees to flatten out the sand around the wheels. We pushed special buttons in the car. Nothing worked. Eventually, someone stopped and offered to help push. I put the car in reverse and within minutes we were back on the road. The only wild horses we saw were on the postcards at the gift shop.
But the experience hasn���t left me, probably because I often get metaphorically stuck in the sand. I���m guessing you do, too. Sometimes, it���s been in my job, sometimes my marriage or important relationships. Sometimes, it���s been in my financial life. How many times have I thought I had everything I needed���a four-wheel drive car, stellar past performance and star ratings on my mutual funds, an autopilot saving and investing strategy���and yet still found myself stuck?
If only I could always remember and rely on the lessons our 15-minute beach adventure taught me. Listen to that warning voice in my head. Look at things from a different perspective. Even if stubborn or afraid, ask for help and accept it when offered. And then try a more promising direction.
If I had more creativity or ambition, I���d write a book on the stuck-in-the-sand investment strategy, about how to avoid or at least quickly escape self-inflicted financial wounds. Perhaps it would be a bestseller and we could afford a better four-wheel drive car. Or perhaps the act of writing the book would, at least, make the driver a little wiser.
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Read Before Selling
Much is unknown at this point, but many investors have taken a sell-now-and-ask-questions-later approach. This is understandable. The early 2020 market meltdown is still fresh in people���s minds. Tempted to sell stocks? Here are seven reasons to stay the course:
1. Markets are rarely fazed by old news. When COVID struck in early 2020, the world was in the dark about the implications of the new virus. Few things unnerve investors more than uncertainty, so it was hardly surprising they sold en masse.
While the new variant is clearly concerning, it���s not a totally new ballgame. We���ve been here before and survived. In other words, the likelihood that investors will panic to the same degree seems low.
2. We have proven technology to fight Omicron and future variants. Human ingenuity is remarkable. That was clearly on display last year when biotech firms and big pharma developed hugely successful vaccines in record time. It may take a while to develop a vaccine for this newest variant���assuming that current vaccines are ineffective���but we have the capability.
3. An economic lockdown is now far less likely. Even in a worst-case scenario in which Omicron evades current vaccines and wreaks havoc on the health care system, it seems unlikely that we���ll revisit the original playbook of stay-at-home orders and shuttering of the global economy. I doubt that people, and the politicians who represent them, will tolerate such extreme measures. Result? The economic impact may not be nearly as severe this time around.
4. Bear markets are the price investors must pay for the outsized returns that stocks offer.��Assuming share prices fall further���which is far from certain���such downturns are an inextricable part of the generous long-run returns that stocks have historically provided. Stocks offer a return premium above that of riskless assets such as Treasury bills, but one that entails significant risk, as reflected in price volatility. In short, there���s no free lunch.
5. There aren���t great alternatives to owning stocks. Suppose you sell out of stocks. Now what? Holding cash pretty much guarantees you a loss after factoring in inflation, which has been running at a 6% clip this year. You can tread water by buying Series I savings bonds, but the sums you can invest in them are limited.
Ten-year Treasurys offer a measly 1.5%, again guaranteeing you a loss after inflation, while 30-year Treasurys���at almost 1.9%���aren't much better. Even junk bonds, which are far riskier, offer payouts of just 4.7%.
6. Lower stock prices are a blessing in disguise. Unless you���re close to retirement, a drop in share prices has a huge silver lining. In fact, if you���re decades from retirement, you should get down on your knees right now and pray for a bear market.
Remember that when you buy stocks, you���re buying into real businesses with cash flows and often dividend payments. Wouldn���t you rather pay less for those same dollars?
Some of the greatest investments you���ll ever make will occur during severe bear markets, only you won���t know it at the time. As Warren Buffett has famously said, ���Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.���
7. The Fed has your back. I say this only partly in jest. One of the greatest maxims on Wall Street is, ���Don���t fight the Fed.��� Why? The Federal Reserve has a potent money-printing machine. If the Fed has the will, it can use this machine to drive up asset prices.
Witness the violent market reversal in March 2020. Last year���s stock market bottom almost perfectly coincided with the Fed���s announcement of highly aggressive monetary measures, including a massive round of quantitative easing. Among other things, the Fed promised back then to purchase at least $700 billion in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities in the coming months.
Given the dovishness of the current Fed, count on additional monetary stimulus should the stock market take a tumble. The ���Powell Put,��� named after Fed Chair Jerome Powell, is very much alive. Do I think such behavior is healthy for markets? No way. But that���s the world investors live in.

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November 29, 2021
Creative Tension
Lennon, who was a bit cheekier, then had McCartney change the second line to ���you know what I mean��� to add a wink-wink-nudge-nudge element. The eventual song, I Saw Her Standing There, became one of the Beatles��� first hits.
Speaking of wink-wink-nudge-nudge, a fascinating��book on the behind-the-scenes creation and history of the Monty Python comedy troupe reveals that there were two general approaches to sketch creation. The Oxford guys, Terry Jones and Michael Palin, liked to start with a general idea and improv-develop the sketch as they played it out. The Cambridge fellows, John Cleese and Graham Chapman, were more methodical, planning each step with a ���and then what happens��� writing style. These different approaches generated friction and yet, meshed together, they created magic.
Both of these stories remind me of the power of creative��tension. We love being affirmed in our beliefs, but often what we need is a ���you���re joking��� partner to keep us from wandering too far afield. In teaching, I loved observing teachers who taught the same subject but in different ways. I always came away with new ideas.
My favorite���and most successful���writing partnership is with a guy who���s on the other side of the political spectrum. We often tease each other and exchange little digs, but we also know we���re united in a common cause and have a mutual respect for each other. I love getting back his edits, including his suggestions, corrections and even an occasional, ���You���re joking.��� In fact, I get frustrated when I get a ���you���re so right��� because I don���t know what to do with it.
My favorite partner in life���my wife���is also a great source of creative tension. I���m a ���live for today��� spender. She���s a ���but what about tomorrow��� saver. I���m a risk-taker hoping for greater returns. She���s more of a safe and sure, steady growth person. Together, like Jack Sprat and his wife, we make a pretty good team.
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Sticking Power
Never heard of him? No doubt, you���ve used a Post-it Note or two. Silver invented their adhesive while a chemist at 3M.
The article told of his passing, and went into a technical explanation of the science behind the Post-it Note. I was intrigued to learn about the man and a discovery that���s become part of our lives���and contributes to 3M���s bottom line.
Silver discovered something called microspheres, a stickiness that has a removability component. This makes paper adhere and yet removable for reuse. Unfortunately, when Silver invented the adhesive, 3M wanted a stronger, tougher, permanent glue. They thought Silver���s discovery useless and odd.
Silver persevered. He talked up the adhesive among his colleagues. He didn���t have much luck for many years���that is, until the day he spoke with a co-worker in another research department, Art Fry. Fry had a problem. He sang in a church choir and used a bookmark to mark hymns to sing. The bookmark would sometimes fall out, causing Fry to lose his place.
Fry needed a bookmark that would stay in place, but not damage the hymnal when removed. He developed one using Silver���s new adhesive. His first attempt didn���t tear the page when it was removed, but it did leave some adhesive residue. A few experiments later, Fry solved that problem. Yet there was still the reusability aspect to the product. Management feared it would limit sales.
One day, when sending a report to a supervisor, Silver cut off a piece of the bookmark. He wrote a note on it and stuck it to the report. His supervisor wrote an answer on that same piece of paper and then sent it back.
For Silver, this was the ���aha��� moment. The sticky note was born.
It was originally launched as Press ���n Peel in 1977. In took giving away samples���and renaming it Post-it Notes in 1980���before the product became a hit. Today, it���s one of the most widely used products in the world.
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When Fantasy Fails
Every fantasy football season starts with the draft. Three intoxicating forces combine to make the draft a great time: predictions, customization and pride. I���ve come to realize that the draft accounts for about 90% of the appeal of the whole fantasy football concept.
One year my friend scheduled our league draft for the same night I had already planned a birthday dinner for my wife. Backed into a corner, I had to do the unthinkable. No, I didn���t cancel the birthday dinner. I wouldn���t dare. Instead, I let the computer auto-draft my team. That was the best team I���ve ever had.
It was a humbling experience that taught me I���m really not smarter than everyone else at forecasting. We all have access to the same data���the same stats explaining prior year performance and the same commentary telling us what to expect next.
Is this starting to feel familiar?
When your players come through, you feel like an unstoppable genius. That taste of success catalyzes a craving for more. But who can know that their first-round draft pick will tear his ACL in week one? Or when the perennial superstar quarterback will finally regress due to age? Or when the blue-chip rookie wide receiver���s skills won���t be good enough for football���s highest level?
If the NFL���s general managers and coaches struggle to foresee these things���with all their resources and intensity���it shouldn���t be a surprise that I do, too.
Investing maxim No. 1: Picking stocks is tricky.
A fantasy football team���s roster includes at least one player at every offensive position and a bench of backup options. This puts the team manager in a tenuous spot every week: Who should start and who should sit?
All the data you could ever need to make a brilliant move is at your disposal. Here���s how my choices sound inside my head:
���Ooh, that running back on my bench plays against the NFL���s worst rushing defense this week. Start him.���
���Yes, that typically inconsistent wide receiver plays against a defensive secondary he scorched earlier in the year. Start him.���
���Hmm, the weather forecast says my usual starting quarterback will have to play in a monsoon. Sit him.���
But reality is much more colorful than this linear logic. The variety of unpredictable twists and turns is limited only by the imagination:
My running back scored no touchdowns because every scoring play happened from the one-yard line. They gave the ball to the goal-line specialist instead.
This game, the passing defense overcompensated to double cover my wide receiver, preventing him from touching the ball the entire game.
It turns out that my quarterback had an uncanny talent for throwing a football in a downpour. He had a career-best day, but I left him on the bench.
It���s hard enough to choose which players will have the best stats for the season. It���s even harder to know in which weeks they will produce those stats. I find that I outsmart myself every time I try to make a slick move. Which, of course, is also true when investing.
Investing maxim No. 2: Timing the market is futile.
���It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.��� It���s a little-known fact that Charles Dickens was playing the 19th century predecessor of fantasy football when he penned those lines. He must have been���because those words encapsulate the fantasy footballer���s gameday experience.
Fantasy football has ruined my enjoyment of regular old football. When my team���s players gain yards and score touchdowns, I���m thrilled. When they don���t, I���m frustrated. When I try to watch a game, I don���t even see it���because the stats ticker hypnotizes me. And if my players��� stats don���t scroll across the bottom of the screen, I constantly check their stats on the league app for my next hit of dopamine.
When I���m not wasting time trying to figure out where the stock market is headed, I���m a much happier person. Ditto for fantasy football. When I���m not fretting over my team, it frees me to enjoy the game itself���a worthy pursuit in healthy doses. More important, it clears up space in my consciousness for life���s richest possibilities. Like being present for a conversation with my wife, creative play outside with my kids, a visit with the neighbors or immersion in a good book.
Investing maxim No. 3: Ignoring daily market fluctuations is liberating.
After successfully avoiding fantasy football last season, I again joined a league this year at the request of some friends at the office. It���s been great���and awful. If I could have drafted a fantasy football index team, I would have.

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November 28, 2021
Black Friday
This most recent market plunge felt similar to declines in February and March 2020, making investors extra jittery and prompting traders to reopen their playbook from 22 months ago. Shares of travel companies and small-cap value stocks felt the brunt of Friday���s selling pressure. Vanguard Small-Cap Value��ETF (symbol: VBR) had its worst single-day performance since June 24, 2020, closing down 3.5%.
Similar moves were seen in foreign funds. The popular���or notorious���Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) is down almost 20% from its February peak. As travel restrictions reappeared in the news, Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (VGK) pulled back to where it traded in April, while Vanguard FTSE Pacific ETF (VPL) ended the week at a new 2021 low.
Investors who diversified with bonds benefited as prices rose and yields fell. The 10-year Treasury note saw its biggest drop in yield since March 2020. After flirting with 1.70% earlier in the week, the 10-year Treasury finished Friday at 1.48%. Propelled by intense bond buying, Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) jumped 0.71% for its second-best day since early April 2020.
Feeling unnerved? While the narrative might be disconcerting, 2% to 3% stock market declines are normal and often occur a handful of times each year. It might even be a welcome development for folks like me, who plan to fund retirement accounts for 2022 as soon as January rolls around.
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Dress Parade
Most people slowly amass their work clothes as they progress through adulthood. Military folks, however, have to do it all at once when they transition to civilian life, and they���re often beset by sartorially inept groupthink. You can always tell current or former military in civilian clothes. Typically, they still wear a uniform, but now it���s tight khaki pants and a tucked-in baggy polo shirt. If you���re having trouble visualizing this outfit, picture a muffin.
If it���s a backyard barbecue amongst military friends, hiking boots are common. If it���s a formal event, such as a holiday party at the general���s home, hiking boots are still common.
I spent a lot of time researching what clothing to wear. Since I now work as a civilian attorney for the government, I wasn���t required to buy the ubiquitous law-firm uniform���a dozen very expensive suits in shades of grey and navy blue. This was a relief. Like all government employees���except some head coaches of public college and university football teams���I don���t earn law-firm wages, either.
The options were overwhelming. One of the wonderful things about the military is that it inculcates a preference for minimalism. Everything���s standard issue, whether it���s the uniform or the modest on-post housing options.
In buying a new wardrobe, I decided to revert to my minimalist military roots, only with more style. Full disclosure: My daughter informs me that, ���It���s not much more style, Dad.���
Eventually, I found shirts, pants and dress boots from three companies with products that fit me perfectly and ship directly to the consumer. These three companies are expensive. But I believe that the cost per wear of a few well-made items make them an excellent value proposition, plus I waited for 10% to 40% sales before buying.
What were the three companies? I bought seven pairs of pants from Lululemon. (Guys, if you���re rolling your eyes, you���re missing out.) I bought 10 Ledbury shirts, and I purchased a few pairs of Tecovas boots. During my shopping spree, I bought no crazy, patterned clothing that���ll languish forgotten in my closet. Instead, I wanted what���s called a capsule��wardrobe, items similar in color and style that I could wear interchangeably.
Their total retail value was about $2,500. But because I waited for sales, the cost to me was a little less than $1,800. The combined wardrobe generates more than 50 outfit combinations. Based on my research, I can expect these items to last between five years and forever.
I���m not counting on forever, obviously. But I think my cost per wear will be no more than $1 a day. That���s slightly better than average, with a much lower environmental impact than cycling through the latest fashions.
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Money Talks
Rock described how his own modest upbringing differed from the comfortable life his children enjoy. ���My kids are rich,��� he said. ���I have nothing in common with them.���
Stewart agreed. ���I had jobs since I was 14 years old.��� That, he said, cemented his work ethic. But his own kids, for better or worse, didn���t have to work. They faced no hardship. As a result, he worried whether they���d ever develop a strong work ethic. ���Maybe there should be like an Outward Bound that we should send them on,��� he mused.
Rock concurred. There should be a camp, he said, where kids ���get their lunch money taken and get beat up....���
On the one hand, this was good natured banter between two successful people. But their concerns were also real. As Lieber notes, you don���t have to be a Hollywood star to share these concerns. In the absence of an Outward Bound���or ���Camp Kick Ass,��� as Rock put it���what can strengthen children���s financial skills? Below are five strategies that have worked well for many families:
1. Big picture.��When it comes to financial details, many parents���myself included���are wary of sharing too much with their children. I wouldn���t show my kids my tax return, and I wouldn���t expect most parents to. But that doesn���t mean you can���t share��some��details���the mortgage or the car payment, for example. This can be educational, I think, because it gives kids some sense of what life costs.
It���s also an opportunity to educate kids on basic personal-finance concepts. I���ve walked my older children through my mortgage statement, explaining key elements. If you have a 401(k) or 403(b), that���s something else you might share. Show them a statement so they can see how these plans automate the saving and investing process.
2. Credit cards.��Banks are notorious for inundating college students with credit card offers. More than one parent I���ve spoken with has described seeing their children get in over their heads. The solution? It���s unrealistic to prevent children from ever signing up for a credit card. Instead, and maybe counterintuitively, I suggest getting them started before college.
That���ll give you the chance to keep a close eye on things while they're still at home. It will also give you���rather than the credit card company���the opportunity to teach them how to handle that piece of plastic in their wallet or purse. A possible first step: Some financial companies offer debit cards, and associated apps, specially designed for kids,��including��Chase,��FamZoo,��Greenlight��and��GoHenry.
3. Allowance.��In most families, allowance is pretty straightforward���a few dollars every weekend, for example. This is fine, and it does help build budgeting skills. But there are steps you can take to make allowance even more educational. In��The Opposite of Spoiled, Lieber suggests this setup for young kids: Give them three jars, labeled ���spend,��� ���save��� and ���give.��� It���s up to each family to decide how allowance is allocated among these three categories. But however you choose to split things up, the exercise itself provides kids an invaluable lesson in managing money.
Also, Lieber says, the jars should be clear plastic. That���s to help kids see their progress. Some parents take additional steps to maximize the educational value of allowance. One idea: Let kids decide how much to allocate to each jar, but encourage saving by paying interest each week on the balance in the savings jar. It���s also important to give kids periodic raises, to further prepare them for the day when they���ll need to manage a real paycheck.
4. Taxes.��When your kids begin to receive real paychecks, they���ll need to file their own tax returns. That���s an excellent opportunity to give kids an introduction to income taxes. You may not feel comfortable sharing your tax return, but you can definitely walk your kids through their return. A child���s return is usually simple enough that you needn���t be a tax expert to understand it and explain it to your child. I���ve done this. I���ll confess that my oldest son didn't find it the most fascinating conversation. But I still think it was worthwhile, and I���ll keep doing it.
5. Major purchases.��Another way to help kids learn to budget is to take a partnership approach to big purchases. For younger kids, it might be a special toy. For older kids, it might be a cellphone or a first car. Even if you can afford to���and are willing to���buy these items outright, you might consider splitting the cost. It needn���t be 50-50. Even if a child has to contribute just 10%, it���ll give him or her an incentive to save and become more familiar with the idea of making trading offs. You could also apply this idea to an investment account���ideally a Roth IRA���for your children, matching the dollars that they contribute.
Over the years, I've asked parents with adult children what factors contributed to their children's success. In most cases, the answer has been the same: "I really don't know." It's possible that these parents were just being modest, not wanting to give themselves too much credit. But I think there's another interpretation: In the end, there really is no single magic formula. As Chris Rock and Jon Stewart lamented, it would be difficult to artificially impose hardship to build resilience. Instead, what many parents have told me is that they simply employ strategies like those above whenever there���s the opportunity for a teachable moment.

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