Steve Bull's Blog, page 149
December 24, 2022
Biodiversity: Targets and lies
Victor Anderson and Rupert Read dissect the recent and ‘historic’ biodiversity CoP15 agreement.Great rejoicing has followed the biodiversity agreement recently arrived at, just in time for Christmas. For example, ‘The Times’ editorial began: “The agreement in Montreal by 195 countries to protect wildlife and ecosystems, with 30 per cent of Earth’s lands and oceans protected by 2030, is a rare piece of good news in gloomy times.” The Environment section of the European Commission tweeted: “The new global #Biodiversity Agreement will ensure that nature keeps sustaining communities & economies for the next decades.”
The nub of our claim here today is: this “ensure” is a lie. Target-setting is very different from implementation and achievement. Voluntary agreements are very different from ones which are legally binding and enforced.
Don’t get us wrong. We are pleased that the Montreal talks didn’t irretrievably break down, and we are impressed by the surprising achievement of the diplomats who put together this agreement at the last minute. Moreover, we totally understand this widespread desire for good news. We two feel it so strongly ourselves! All of us desperately want to be able to believe that the future is looking less grim.
But fooling ourselves is not good for anyone. It’s certainly not good for nature; nor for our long-term mental health.
Bear in mind: We have been here before, and recently. The same process, a Conference of the Parties of the Convention on Biological Diversity, agreed an earlier set of targets in 2010, known as the Aichi Targets, supposed to be achieved by 2020. What happened? Summarising an official UN survey, The Guardian reported (15.9.20): “The world has failed to meet a single target to stem the destruction of wildlife and life-sustaining ecosystems in the last decade, according to a devastating new report from the UN on the state of nature.”
…click on the above link to read the rest…
Peak US Oil Production Looms as the Domestic Shale Boom Ends
A lone pumpjack in Loving County, Texas, in the Permian Basin. Credit: Justin HamelIt appears that the U.S. fracking boom is ending far earlier than many industry experts and CEOs predicted. After an understandable dip in 2020 due to the pandemic, oil production still has not regained the record levels achieved in 2019, and predictions that the industry would set new records this year have not materialized, despite 2022’s high oil prices.In late 2018, DeSmog first raised the alarm about the reality that the U.S. shale industry was likely to hit peak production much sooner than most experts expected.
At the time and since, the oil industry has continually promised big things for the future of U.S. shale oil production.
Credit: U.S. Energy Information AdministrationIn 2017, Inside Energy reported that the governor of North Dakota was aiming to have the Bakken shale play produce 2 million barrels per day. In that same article an analyst for S&P Global Platts predicted that even in 2027 the Bakken would be producing 1.5 million barrels per day. The Bakken peaked at 1.5 million barrels per day in 2019 but has yet to return to that level.
Similarly, a 2019 article in industry publication oilprice.com noted that “there is a consensus in the market that the Permian Basin will be the dominant part of 2040 US oil supply.” In that article, industry analysts Rystad predicted the Permian could be producing 7.5 million barrels per day in 2040.
And in 2020, Rystad made optimistic predictions for the future of U.S. shale oil at its Energy 2020 Americas Virtual Annual Summit.
…click on the above link to read the rest…
Inflation, recession, and declining US hegemony
In the distant future, we might look back on 2022 and 2023 as pivotal years. So far, we have seen the conflict between America and the two Asian hegemons emerge into the open, leading to a self-inflicted energy crisis on the western alliance. The forty-year trend of declining interest rates has ended, replaced by a new rising trend the full consequences and duration of which are as yet unknown.
The western alliance enters the New Year with increasing fears of recession. Monetary policy makers face an acute dilemma: do they prioritise inflation of prices by raising interest rates, or do they lean towards yet more monetary stimulation to ensure that financial markets stabilise, their economies do not suffer recession, and government finances are not driven into crisis?
This is the conundrum that will play out in 2023 for the US, UK, EU, Japan, and others in the alliance camp. But economic conditions are starkly different in continental Asia. China is showing the early stages of making an economic comeback. Russia’s economy has not been badly damaged by sanctions, as the western media would have us believe. All members of Asian trade organisations are enjoying the benefits of cheap oil and gas while the western alliance turns its back on fossil fuels.
The message sent to Saudi Arabia, the Gulf Cooperation Council, and even to OPEC+ is that their future markets are with the Asian hegemons. Predictably, they are all gravitating into this camp. They are abandoning the American-led sphere of influence.
2023 will see the consequences of Saudi Arabia ending the petrodollar. Energy exporters are feeling their way towards new commercial arrangements in a bid to replace yesterday’s dollar. There’s talk of a new Asian trade settlement currency…
…click on the above link to read the rest…
December 23, 2022
US-Russia Relations In “Ice Age” & Risk Of Direct Clash “High”: Kremlin
Russia’s ambassador to the United States issued a statement Friday assessing the state of Moscow-Washington relations as having entered an “ice age” – according to state-owned TASS.
Ambassador Anatoly Antonov said that currently the risk of a direct clash between the US and Russia remains “high” – after the foreign ministry on Thursday again charged that the Biden administration is fueling a “proxy war” in Ukraine.
Russian Ambassador Anatoly AntonovAntonov acknowledged that strategic dialogue between the two sides is on pause, and that it’s hard to know when they’ll resume, but cited as a rare positive the recent prisoner swaps.
As The Independent reviews of his words in reference to the swaps:
However, Mr Antonov said that talks on prisoner swaps had been “effective” and would continue. Two prisoner swaps, in which US Marine veteran Trevor Reed and basketball star Brittney Griner have been freed by Russia since April in return for convicted drug smuggler Konstantin Yaroshenko and arms dealer Viktor Bout.
A key major development which could fuel escalation is the White House decision to send Patriot anti-air missile defense systems.
President Vladimir Putin was quick to condemn the development but still downplayed the Patriots as “quite old” – saying that his forces would counter it.
Putin also hinted at a future negotiated settlement, saying: “Our goal is not to spin the flywheel of military conflict, but, on the contrary, to end this war.”
In the fresh remarks coming at the end of the week, he said further: “We will strive for an end to this and the sooner the better, of course,” and that “All armed conflicts end one way or another with some kind of negotiations on the diplomatic track.”
…click on the above link to read the rest…
Europe’s Energy Crisis Is Just Getting Started
Despite successfully filling its gas storage ahead of winter this year, Europe’s energy crisis is far from over. The situation for Europe could, in fact, be worse next winter when Russian pipeline gas supply will be down to a trickle, at best.
European households and businesses have already seen a rise in total energy costs by $1.06 trillion (1 trillion euros), according to estimates by European economic think-tank Bruegel published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). According to Bruegel’s analysts, if governments in Europe do nothing except offer financial support, and if they cover the price increases, this sum would represent a massive 6% of the annual GDP of the EU.
“Massive government support could delay adjustment to a new price equilibrium and create the need for even more support,” Bruegel’s experts say.
Instead, the EU needs a “grand bargain” to encourage savings and increase supply at the same time.
The next 12 to 24 months will determine whether Europe will be able to cope with the energy crisis without having to resort to mandatory rationing or without losing too much industry competitiveness.
Europe’s energy systems were already put to the first real test this month amid an Arctic blast that swept through most of northwestern Europe, bringing freezing temperatures, snow in the UK, and depressing wind speeds in Germany.
…click on the above link to read the rest…
It’s Wholesale Robbery!
It’s Wholesale Robbery!The latest inflation news was glorious, they said. The whole media told us so!
It’s easing, improving, better than it has been and headed in the right direction. So stop your kvetching and get out there and make (and spend) money. For that matter, throw around the credit card a bit and stop trying to save money.
Inflation is all but done! It’s pretty interesting because they have been saying this for the better part of 18 months.
In reality, the consumer price index rose 7.1% from a year ago. That’s terrible. Yes, not as terrible as last month, but look at the breakdown in detail.
Food at home is up 10% while food at restaurants is up 12%. Fuel oil is up 65.7 % and transportation services are up 14.2%!
So on it goes, and each month we get a report, and the intensity shifts from one sector to another. The perception that this is cooling is based mostly on the weighting scheme that yields the final number. This is no world in which we are watching the problem gradually disappear.
Wholesale Robbery of the American PeopleYou can see the scale of the problem by looking at the so-called sticky rate of price increases over 14 years. This reveals which part of the overall index is truly embedded and less subject to exigencies of temporary market change.
This is wholesale robbery of the American people. That the thief stole a full place setting of silver last month but this month left the dessert spoon is hardly an improvement and a case for leaving the doors unlocked.
They’ve told us for 18 months that it’s not so bad and we should all stop kvetching about it. But it keeps being bad. The inflation is embedded and clearly has a long way to go before the momentum runs out of steam.
…click on the above link to read the rest…
December 22, 2022
The weather nightmare before Christmas
Dangerous white-out conditions, such as those that closed I-87 in Oregon during a 2017 winter storm, could plague many U.S. roadways late this week. (Image credit: Oregon Department of Transportation via Flickr, CC BY 2.0)Tens of millions of Americans will find themselves recalibrating – and in some cases canceling – holiday plans over the next week, as an exceptionally intense Arctic front plows across most of the eastern two-thirds of the United States during the run-up to Christmas Day.
Below-freezing air will push to the Gulf Coast by Christmas weekend, with readings likely to dip below zero Fahrenheit from Oklahoma to Ohio late this week. On top of this, a “bomb” cyclone (one that deepens by at least 24 millibars in 24 hours) will race from the Central Plains to the Great Lakes on Friday and Saturday, December 23-24. Fierce winds and heavy snow are expected to produce widespread blizzard conditions and shut down transportation over portions of the Great Lakes and Midwest on one of the year’s busiest travel weekends.
Heavy rains and high winds will buffet the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast before the front arrives, most likely bringing a burst of cold and a quick shot of snow around Saturday (Christmas Eve).
Update (Tuesday 2:15 pm EST): As the Arctic influx hit the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday, flights were halted at the Vancouver, British Columbia, airport, and heavy snow hammered areas north and west of Seattle.
Birch Bay via my FB page! Shared with permission. #wawx @NWSSeattle pic.twitter.com/e2u12LtdsB
— Randy Small – Whatcom County Weather (@RandySmall) December 20, 2022
There were passengers stuck on the tarmac for 12 hours overnight as heavy snow snarled operations at the Vancouver airport, leading to dozens of flight cancellations and delays. https://t.co/4W394T4ihG
— CTV News Vancouver (@CTVVancouver) December 20, 2022
…click on the above link to read the rest…
Strong signs that La Nina is breaking down
After three successive La Niñas, there are strong signs that the latest La Niña is quickly waning and will release its grip and move towards neutral in its effect on Australia in the second half of summer into autumn, as the previous two did.
This means we can expect an end to the relentlessly wet weather which has lashed large parts of Australia in recent summers, and for much of 2022 – with a return to drier, potentially warmer conditions as we move through summer.
How do we know this? The chart below tells you most of what you need to know.
In simple terms, as those red blobs move west (or to the right of the chart), the effects of La Niña become less pronounced.
Why does warmer water moving away from our region signal the end of La Niña?
Because warm-than-usual water near Australia is La Niña’s fuel.
If you go back to the La Niña explainer piece which we wrote in September 2022, we told you that La Niña occurs when:
The temperature contrast that develops across the equatorial Pacific Ocean supports stronger trade winds blowing from east to west across surface of the Pacific.These enhanced trade winds cause warmer-than-average water to pile up on the western side of the equatorial Pacific Ocean and cooler-than-average water to form in the central and western equatorial Pacific.…click on the above link to read the rest…
December 21, 2022
US Government in Full Scale Implosion Because of Corruption – Catherine Austin Fitts
Catherine Austin Fitts (CAF), Publisher of The Solari Report and former Assistant Secretary of Housing (Bush 41 Admin.), says the U.S. government is so fraudulent that it will self-destruct much sooner than later. CAF predicts, “If you look at FTX, my question is how much of the money sent to Ukraine got laundered right back for the (2022 midterm) election? So, to me, Ukraine is not a destination point, it is a through put point. . . . At this point, and I hate to say it, but we are in full scale implosion. The corruption is that bad. That’s why I am telling you what we need is sovereignty. The federal government is not going to deliver. . . . The financial coup has reached a point where if you want sovereignty, the only person who can deliver that is your state governor and your legislature. . . . If you’ve got a great state AG, if you have great legislature, if you have a great governor, you better start supporting them. They are the people that can protect your sovereignty. You need governmental sovereignty if you are going to have individual sovereignty, and you better do it now. You have no time to be entertained by Joe Biden, Trump and Hunter Biden.”
The federal government corruption was turbocharged in 2019. CAF says, “While everyone was focusing on the teenage sex life of the Supreme Court nominee Kavanaugh, the House, the Senate, the White House, Democrat and Republican, both sides of the aisle got together and approved Statement 56 of the Federal Accounting Standards Advisory Board (FASAB) which said they could keep secret books. That was everybody—together. So, there is no Right vs Left. There is no Trump vs Biden…
…click on the above link to read the rest…
