Yanis Varoufakis's Blog, page 26

The Peace Process Ukraine’s Supporters Should Support – Project Syndicate op-ed

In 1943, progressives had a moral duty to dismiss calls for a negotiated settlement with Hitler. Cutting a deal with the Nazis to end the carnage would have been unforgivable. Civilized people had only one option: to keep fighting until Allied troops stood over Hitler’s Berlin bunker. Today, by contrast, it would be a grave error to aim for a final military victory over Russia and to dismiss those of us calling for an immediate negotiated peaceIn 1943, the countries gunning for final victory had skin in the game, with Allied troops and, in many cases, civilian populations, on the frontline. Today, the West acts like the United States did before the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor: standing on the sidelines, arming and cheering those who are doing the actual fighting. Under the circumstances, urging Ukrainians to deliver a final victory against Russia, when NATO is not even thinking of putting boots on the ground or warplanes in the air, is both hypocritical and irresponsible.Given that cornering Putin in some Moscow bunker cannot sensibly be the West’s endgame, what would a final victory for Ukraine look like? Understandably, Ukrainians dream of pushing Russian troops at least back to where they were before February 24 – a tall order despite the huge ongoing airlift of state-of-the-art US weaponry. What is far more likely is that, after having dug in on Ukraine’s Black Sea coast and in the eastern Donbas region, Putin will call for a ceasefire. In that case, a slow-burning war of attrition – a cross between Syria and Cyprus – would become the most likely outcome.But, even in the unlikely event that Ukrainian fighters succeed in pushing Russian troops all the way back, a wounded Russian regime would always find ways to impede Ukraine’s path to a semblance of normalcy. Only regime change in Moscow, of a very particular type, is consistent with the notion of a final Ukrainian victory. How likely is such a serendipitous outcome for Ukraine and NATO? And how reasonable is it to wager Ukraine’s future on it, especially in view of the West’s sorry track record on attempts at regime change?In fact, most evidence points in the opposite direction. While the war is going badly for Putin, the economic war is working rather nicely for him. Granted, underprivileged Russians are suffering, skilled workers are fleeing, and many industries are running out of parts. Even so, according to Robin Brooks of the Institute of International Finance, a gigantic current-account surplus is in the making (projected to reach $200-250 billion in 2022, up from $95.8 billion in April). No wonder the ruble has recovered fully.This massive windfall allows Putin’s regime easily to finance a long-term war of attrition in Ukraine. Many Russians will be impoverished, and their economy will be condemned to long-term stagnation. But on Putin’s chessboard, ordinary Russians are mere pawns whose sacrifice is acceptable, if not necessary, to inflict long-term damage on Ukraine while waiting for ruptures to appear within NATO – especially once the fickle Western media turn their attention to other matters.In this context, calls for a final Ukrainian victory gravitate toward a wholesale defeat for everyone – except perhaps arms dealers and the fossil-fuel industry, whose fortunes the war has mightily revived. Prospects of a Ukrainian economic miracle funded by the European Union will wither. Europe is already suffering economically, and the developing world is in the early stages of a spiral of hunger and forced migration, triggered by the disruption of grain and fertilizer imports normally sourced in Ukraine and Russia. Only a negotiated peace can snatch victory – defined as better outcomes for Ukraine, Europe, and humanity – from the jaws of multiple defeats.It is at this point that charges of “Westsplaining” – or, worse, of “doing Putin’s bidding” – are hurled at those of us cautioning against the narrative of a final Ukrainian victory. “Who are you to tell Ukrainians what to do?” is a common refrain. Respectful of their agency, I shall leave the question unanswered and, instead, focus on how best to support Ukrainians now.We know that those caught up in war must economize on offers of negotiations, lest they be branded weak. Nonetheless, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed earlier this month that the war cannot end without negotiations: “Despite the fact that they are destroying our bridges,” he said, “I believe that not all bridges have been destroyed yet.” It should be the job of those of us not directly involved in the war to help the combatants envisage what a negotiated peace may look like – and to say the things that they cannot afford to say before the negotiations begin.A fair deal, we must agree, should leave everyone somewhat dissatisfied, while constituting a great improvement over every feasible alternative. Both sides must make gains that far exceed their losses, without losing face. To honor the Ukrainians’ aspirations and valiant resistance to Putin’s aggression, the envisaged peace treaty must decree that Russian troops withdraw to their pre-February 24 bases. To deal with sectarian clashes in the Donbas and surrounding areas, the Good Friday Agreement (which ended the “Troubles” in Northern Ireland) can offer tangible guidance on conflict resolution and governance. And, to assuage fear of military re-engagement, a wide demilitarized buffer zone around the Russian-Ukrainian border ought to be included.Would Putin agree? Possibly, if the treaty offers him three things. Putin will want most sanctions lifted. He will also want the issue of Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 to be kicked into the long grass, to be resolved at some undefined time in the future. And he will want security guarantees that only the US can provide, including the lure of a seat at the top table where new security arrangements in Europe must be hammered out. Ukraine needs similar security guarantees from both the US and Russia, so Ukraine’s friends should be planning such arrangements, under the auspices of the United Nations, and involving the US and the EU.There are, of course, no guarantees that a negotiated peace will work. What is certain is that not trying, owing to the delusion of a final victory, would be unforgivable.

For the Project Syndicate’s website, click here.

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Dangerous fantasy: Gold, Bitcoin won’t help you find freedom outside government – Interviewed on Kitco NEWS

Central banks should issue their own democratically controlled crypto, not bypassed by Bitcoin-like cryptocurrencies” I told David Lin, Anchor and Producer at Kitco News; a service catering largely to the crypto community who (as you will see in the comments) cannot stand my rejection of their collective fantasy that crypto currencies will liberate us from the capitalist/state yoke. Still, it is important to break down the lines to segregation preventing the dialogue we have to have. Thanks David!If you do not want to watch all 32 minutes, you may jump to the following topics:

0:00 – Central bank digital currencies

8:45 – Government tyranny

12:32 – Gold, Bitcoin

15:16 – Inflation

26:09 – Russia and Ukraine

31:02 – Upcoming book

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“What was the long-term impact on Greece of its economic crisis?”, asked a 12-yr-old Belgian pupil. Here is my answer

Today I received an email that was impossible to ignore: “My name is HK and I am a 12-year-old Belgian student. We have been asked to formulate a question about a topic that interests us and then give a presentation about it in front of the group. The question I chose is: What was, or is, the social impact of the financial crisis a few years ago in Greece?” And here is the answer I just emailed back to HK:Periodic economic crises are a sad but natural phenomenon in every capitalist (market-based) society. They are like bushfires that help forests replenish themselves through burning down the old trees, making room for younger ones, and improving the soil’s fertility. However, some forest fires are so intense that even the seeds burn down, leaving nothing behind them but a desert-like landscape. The global financial crisis of 2008, by the time it reached Greece in 2010, caused such a devastating crisis in my homeland. Once its flames died down, sometime in 2017, the whole ecosystem of Greece’s social economy resembled a socio-economic desert. We lost hundreds of thousands of well-educated young people (including most of our young doctors!), small businesses fell into permanent bankruptcy, the state is permanently insolvent and, thus, forced by its international creditors to charge tax rates so hefty that whatever ‘green shoots’ emerge they soon dry up and wither. Unless there is a systematic write down of state and private debts, this beautiful country will remain a wonderful playground for tourists and a debt trap for its inhabitants. As for those who insist that Greece is now peaceful and out of the woods, they need to be reminded of what Tacitus once said: Ubi solitudinem faciunt pacem appellant (They made a desert and called it peace).

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“Our Techno-Feudal Hellscape” – On the Real News Network, with Jason Myles & Pascal Robert

From the push to turn more of the workforce into precarious “gig workers” to the ways profit-seeking digital platforms condition how we act and think while extracting free data from us, we can see and feel everyday the creeping evidence that we are living in a new reality. As world-renowned Greek economist, author, and politician Yanis Varoufakis argues, “This is how capitalism ends: not with a revolutionary bang, but with an evolutionary whimper. Just as it displaced feudalism gradually, surreptitiously, until one day the bulk of human relations were market-based and feudalism was swept away, so capitalism today is being toppled by a new economic mode: techno-feudalism.”In their latest interview for TRNN, co-hosts of  THIS IS REVOLUTION  Jason Myles and Pascal Robert speak with Varoufakis about how this “techno-feudalist” system emerged, what sets it apart from the global capitalist system that preceded it, and what it will mean for humanity if we don’t stop it. Yanis Varoufakis formerly served as the finance minister of Greece and is currently the secretary general of MeRA25, a left-wing political party in Greece that he founded in 2018. He is a professor of economics at the University of Athens and the author of numerous books, including  The Global Minotaur: America, Europe and the Future of the Global Economy  and  Another Now: Dispatches from an Alternative Present .

For the TRNN’s website (that includes a full transcript) click here.

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“No one can win this war. A negotiated, just peace guaranteed by EU-US-Russia is the only sane strategy” – CGTN interview

“The global South is not sanctioning Russia, not because they support Putin but because they’ve had enough of US government hypocrisy.”

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Cloudalists: The New Ruling Class & how can we confront its technofeudal order – iai lecture, 10 APR 2022

Capital triumphed over democracy a long time ago. Today, following the Crash of 2008, the deployment of central bank money to refloat Big Finance, and the rise of Big Tech’s platform corporations, a new type of capital has emerged: Cloud capital (a form of command capital living in the ‘Cloud’). Cloud  Capital is crushing the remnants of our democracies and us giving rise to a new, technofeudal, ruling class – the Cloudalists. In a video lecture commissioned and organised by the IAI Academy, Yanis Varoufakis defines and discusses the new cloudalist class ruling over the emergent technofeudalism. TO WATCH THE VIDEO, CLICK HERE OR ON THE ADJACENT ICONFor a related article on this cloud-based ruling class, click here

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Βαρουφάκης-Μιθριδάτης, με κλιπς από 10 επεισόδια, συζητούν ζωντανά για το STAR TREK – Μια εκδήλωση του mέta

Γιατί για το STAR TREK; Επειδή το θεωρούμε  το πιο απρόσμενο αντιπολεμικό μανιφέστο ελευθεριακού κομμουνισμού. Έτσι λοιπόν, συναντηθήκαμε επί σκηνής (στο φιλόξενο ΤΡΙΑΝΟΝ), καλεσμένοι του mέta, έχοντας επιλέξει κλιπς 10 επεισόδια (από το original έως και το Voyager),  για μια 4ωρη (!) συζήτηση που, τουλάχιστον εμείς, ευχαριστηθήκαμε.ΤΟ ΣΚΕΠΤΙΚΟ & ΤΟ ΣΤΙΓΜΑ ΤΗΣ ΕΚΔΗΛΩΣΗΣΤα όρια της πολιτικής φαντασίας μας είναι και τα όρια των αγώνων μας για μια χειραφετημένη κοινωνία. Και πουθενά αλλού δεν έχει δώσει ο σύγχρονος κόσμος στην φαντασία τόσες ελευθερίες, όσο σε πλευρές της μαζικής κουλτούρας – σε αντίθεση με την “υψηλή”. Μέσα στους κόλπους της βιομηχανίας του θεάματος, ξεπηδούν κάποτε – με το άλλοθι της “επιστημονικής φαντασίας” – εμπνεύσεις που με κάθε σοβαρότητα αξίζει να γονιμοποιήσουν την πολιτική μας σκέψη και δράση, ώστε να μεταφέρουμε πίσω στη Γη και στο ταραγμένο παρόν μας τους “φουτουριστικούς οραματισμούς” που μια σειρά σαν το Star Trek τοποθετεί στο αχανές διάστημα. Ως η πιο επιδραστική παγκοσμίως σειρά του είδους της επιστημονικής φαντασίας από τη δεκαετία του ’60 μέχρι σήμερα, το Star Trek πρωτοπόρησε στην άρση φυλετικών και έμφυλων στερεοτύπων στην οθόνη, αλλά, σε μια προσεκτικότερη ανάγνωση, αποδεικνύεται και καλός οδηγός για να φανταστούμε μία εναλλακτική κοινωνική οργάνωση, πέρα από την παρούσα τεχνοφεουδαρχική δυστοπία. Για αυτό και το, mέta, το Κέντρο Μετακαπιταλιστικού Πολιτισμού, προσκάλεσε δύο από τους πιστότερους trekkies στον ελληνικό χώρο, τον Γιάνη Βαρουφάκη και τον Μιθριδάτη, να παρουσιάσουν από έξι σύνομα κλιπ επεισοδίων του Star Trek ο καθένας, σχολιάζοντας και συζητώντας το πολιτικό, οικονομικό και φιλοσοφικό τους περιεχόμενο. Αυτή η πολλά υποσχόμενη διασταύρωση των απόψεων ενός μουσικού δημιουργού και ενός οικονομολόγου και πολιτικού, στη βάση της κοινής τους αγάπης για το Star Trek, έλαβε χώρα την Τετάρτη 23 Μαρτίου 2022 στον κινηματογράφο “Τριανόν”.

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Τεχνολογία, Χρήμα, Πόλεμος: Διάλεξη στο Πανεπιστήμιο Ιωαννίνων

 Η τεχνολογία, το χρέος και το χρήμα πάντα προχωρούσαν χέρι-χέρι, με τον πόλεμο να παίζει τον ρόλο του επιταχυντή της εξέλιξής τους. Σε αυτή την διάλεξη, εστίασα σε αυτή την εξελικτική διαδικασία υπό το φως των σύγχρονων εξελίξεων στην Ουκρανία αλλά και στον χώρο των ψηφιακών (κρυπτο)νομισμάτων.Σημ. Η διάλεξη κρατά 42′ και η συζήτηση που ακολούθησε την υπόλοιπη μία ώρα.

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Σκληρό Μαρκάρισμα Νο.10. Με τον Πάνο Χαρίτο

Χωρίς απαγορευμένες ή υπαγορευμένες ερωτήσεις. Χωρίς ταμπού θέματα ή προσυμφωνημένες ατζέντες. Χωρίς την παραμικρή προσυνεννόηση. Συνεντεύξεις όπως πρέπει να γίνονται. Στο δέκατο «Σκληρό Μαρκάρισμα» με ανακρίνει ο Πάνος Χαρίτος. Μιλήσαμε χωρίς περιστροφές για τον πόλεμο στην Ουκρανία και τις δηλώσεις μελών του τάγματος Αζόφ στην ελληνική Βουλή, για την  πανδημία και την οικονομία, τον πληθωρισμό, την Ευρωπαϊκή Ένωση, τον ΦΠΑ, την ενέργεια, τις γαλλικές εκλογές, το ρόλο της Τουρκίας και τον Ταγίπ Ερντογάν, για τις μετεκλογικές συνεργασίες στο ελληνικό γίγνεσθαι, την ελληνική δημοσιογραφία και τις παρακολουθήσεις δημοσιογράφων, για τη σχέση πολιτικής και θρησκείας αλλά και για την πίστη γενικότερα, άθεος ή άθρησκος;

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Σκληρό Μαρκάρισμα Νο.9. Με τον Χρήστο Αρβαμίδη

Χωρίς απαγορευμένες ή υπαγορευμένες ερωτήσεις. Χωρίς ταμπού θέματα ή προσυμφωνημένες ατζέντες. Χωρίς την παραμικρή προσυνεννόηση. Συνεντεύξεις όπως πρέπει να γίνονται. Στο ένατο «Σκληρό Μαρκάρισμα» με ανακρίνει ο Χρήστος Αβραμίδης. Μιλήσαμε χωρίς περιστροφές για την ενεργειακή κρίση, την ακρίβεια, την Ευρωπαϊκή Ένωση, την πανδημία και τους θανάτους εκτός ΜΕΘ, τον πόλεμο στην Ουκρανία, το ΝΑΤΟ, τον μετακαπιταλισμό, τις μετεκλογικές συνεργασίες και για την προσβασιμότητα των ατόμων με αναπηρία.

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