Erick Erickson's Blog, page 83

Filling In For Neal Boortz #EERS

I'm filling in for Neal Boortz today from 8:35 at to 1:00 pm ET.

You can call in at 1-877-310-2100.

You can also listen right here on the WSB live stream.

Consider this an open thread.

The Candidates

I will not be endorsing any time soon. I have made clear my reasons here.

I am, however, continually surprised that anyone in the GOP thinks Mitt Romney is a really viable candidate. Should he be the nominee, the American public will be treated to interviews and commercials with every person ever fired or laid off because of Bain Capital, an organization from which MItt Romney still draws money.

The Romney camp response is, in effect, "Sure, but look at all the people laid off because of Barack Obama."

Okay. Sure. In other words, in a race about job creation, we'll have a fight over who caused the fewest people to lose their jobs.

That's a real winner of an argument to have.

Meanwhile, yesterday, a number of bloggers across the conservative side of the internet rolled out endorsements for Rick Perry, including a number of front page writers here. While I realize Perry's initial debate performances were weak and, should Perry make it out of Iowa he must absolutely and decisively remove Ray Sullivan from being in charge of communications, left people yearning for what might have been, the man is the three term government of the second largest state in the nation under whose administration close to 50% of all jobs in the nation were created in the past decade, and who has never lost an election.

And there is also the fact that Rick Perry is both a farmer and a veteran. In fact, Perry is the only veteran running for President who has a shot at actually winning. Republicans used to value military service in a candidate and they still should.

I think Rick Perry has a vastly better shot against Barack Obama than Mitt Romney. Of all the candidates running, I think he has one of the best shots, though his internal campaign situation has badly served him and he never should have left Ray Sullivan in his position and I question whether he should have brought on Cousin Eddie . . . er . . . Joe Allbaugh, a Bushie whose presence will just cause more comparisons to Bush.

I highlight Perry not to endorse him, but to point out that his qualifications and experience are a far better match against Barack Obama than Mitt Romney's, whose claim to fame is his private sector experience, which he is forced to highlight because in the 22 contests on which MItt Romney has placed his name for public office, he has only won 5.

While I think Perry has one of the best shots of beating Barack Obama, he is not the only one.

I think Newt Gingrich has a better shot at beating Barack Obama too. The former Speaker of the House is more a wild card than any of the other candidates, but he excites the base in a way that few do.

A Gingrich – Obama debate would be substantive, on policy, and would be a rhetorical knock out against Barack Obama. Consider that Rick Perry has been so badly served by a big staff and Newt Gingrich has now been so well served by a small staff. He has run a nimble, positive campaign on the issues and, unlike Mitt Romney, has not spent time in the private sector firing people wholesale not can he be accused of being a scion of Wall Street.

Jon Huntsman too could beat Barack Obama. In fact, pretty much every independent voter I encounter and moderate Democrat I encounter is baffled why we are not considering the guy they actually prefer right now. Part of it is because moderate Democrats prefer him and part of it is because Huntsman campaign made a conscious decision to start the campaign giving conservatives the middle finger.

But Huntsman's policy proposals are deeply conservative. He is more pro-life than Mitt Romney, more consistent than either Romney or Gingrich, and actually seems refreshingly unwilling to play in the kabuki theater we expect the candidates to go through.

MIchele Bachmann too is an outstanding candidate. At a time when our tax code is out of whack, she is a tax attorney with deep knowledge on how to fix the system and how the present system works. In Congress, even people who don't like her tell me she is one of the quickest, sharpest studies in the House Republican Conference. She, like Perry, shares my values and has an unapologetic believe in the greatness of this country.

Mitt Romney is not a bad guy. I am sure he is imminently likable. But he cannot beat Barack Obama. he cannot beat Barack Obama because we are in an election cycle when everyone hates Wall Street. Even the GOP is campaigning against Wall Street. And Mitt Romney is the candidate of Wall Street. He is the candidate who laid off scores of people and made a huge profit doing it. We on the right, as capitalists, may say there is nothing wrong with that, but swing voters are who still tuned out are not going to like it.

Oh, and it seems clear Mitt Romney is hell bent on winning this thing without conservative support, which should be a serious warning sign right now.

The Strategic Incompetence of Mitch McConnell

Mitch McConnell's minion are in full on spin mode trying to blame Speaker of the House John Boehner for botching the payroll tax cut extension. The only person who deserves any blame is Mitch McConnell. In this, the first deal he pretty much single handedly negotiated with the Democrats, he not only screwed up, but proved he has no freaking clue how to get the economy growing again.

The House has postponed a vote on the matter but members of the House are in open rebellion about it. In exchange for the Keystone Pipeline, which would probably make the President veto the whole thing anyway, the GOP would go for a two month extension of the payroll tax cut and raise fees on mortgages permanently.

Note the last bit. McConnell was okay raising fees on the American people permanently to offset a two month payroll tax cut. And it would not just raise fees on mortgages, it would, in effect, perpetuate the sad, sick cycle of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac controlling the mortgage industry with no reforms to either.

McConnell now wants us to know this is all John Boehner's fault and John Boehner had intended to go along with it. Except that comes as news to plenty of people in the House. There is a larger point, though, that is being ignored.

Mitch McConnell negotiated a two month extension of the payroll tax cut and businesses in America, particularly small businesses, need to plan for a full year. The GOP has blamed Obama and the Democrats for "uncertainty" in the economy and Mitch McConnell sought to exacerbate that uncertainty playing political games with a payroll tax cut.

To compound the stupidity of it all the deal cannot even be implemented by most businesses in America. Mitch McConnell, who supposedly is on the side of job creators, seemingly has no clue how this payroll tax cut would affect businesses and clearly did not understand its implications enough to know just how wholly unworkable it is.

In other words, the leader of the Republicans in the Senate has become such a creature of Washington, he like the Democrats we fight, knows not a darn thing about how to get Washington out of the way of the job creators or, worse, he does not care.

Morning Briefing for December 20, 2011

RedState Morning Briefing

December 20, 2011

Go to www.RedStateMB.com to get
the Morning Briefing every morning at no charge.

1. The Candidates

2. The Strategic Incompetence of Mitch McConnell

3. RedState Interview with Jon Huntsman

4. Can Congress Subpoena Judges?

———————————————————————-

1. The Candidates

I will not be endorsing any time soon. I have made clear my reasons here.

I am, however, continually surprised that anyone in the GOP thinks Mitt Romney is a really viable candidate. Should he be the nominee, the American public will be treated to interviews and commercials with every person ever fired or laid off because of Bain Capital, an organization from which MItt Romney still draws money.

The Romney camp response is, in effect, "Sure, but look at all the people laid off because of Barack Obama."

Okay. Sure. In other words, in a race about job creation, we'll have a fight over who caused the fewest people to lose their jobs.

That's a real winner of an argument to have.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

2. The Strategic Incompetence of Mitch McConnell

Mitch McConnell's minion are in full on spin mode trying to blame Speaker of the House John Boehner for botching the payroll tax cut extension. The only person who deserves any blame is Mitch McConnell. In this, the first deal he pretty much single handedly negotiated with the Democrats, he not only screwed up, but proved he has no freaking clue how to get the economy growing again.

The House has postponed a vote on the matter but members of the House are in open rebellion about it. In exchange for the Keystone Pipeline, which would probably make the President veto the whole thing anyway, the GOP would go for a two month extension of the payroll tax cut and raise fees on mortgages permanently.

Note the last bit. McConnell was okay raising fees on the American people permanently to offset a two month payroll tax cut. And it would not just raise fees on mortgages, it would, in effect, perpetuate the sad, sick cycle of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac controlling the mortgage industry with no reforms to either.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

3. RedState Interview with Jon Huntsman

Former Utah Governor and current Presidential candidate Jon Huntsman took the time on Friday to sit down with me and answer some questions on his views. You can hear the entire audio of the interview by clicking below, or I have generated a rough transcript which you can find below the fold.

I will admit to being impressed by Governor Huntsman, who I had largely written off earlier in the campaign. As a matter of presentation, he seems to come off better on audio than video for some reason. In any event, he answered my questions candidly and with a bare minimum of politician-speak. He refused an opportunity to backtrack on some of the earlier comments attributed to his campaign, but I think most readers will find that his positions are more conservative than they would expect.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

4. Can Congress Subpoena Judges?

I have to confess at the outset that I am at a loss to explain the hyperventilation in some quarters about Newt Gingrich's remarks in Saturday night's debate that he would subpoena federal judges to testify before Congress. I don't really want to get sidetracked in a discussion of whether such a move would be a good idea, politically (it would almost certainly not, as evidenced by the fact that it is never done), my only beef is with the suggestion that it literally could not be done. In other words, to some extent this is probably the sort of discussion that only a soul-sucking lawyer fascinated by the question of how many angels could dance on the head of a pin could possibly enjoy and therefore I will stick most of it below the fold. I will say, however, that folks who have never actually practiced in front of a judge generally have no idea how bad things are in the judiciary these days – and while I think Newt's plan is probably political suicide, I don't think some outside-the-box thinking should be completely discarded where the judiciary is concerned, because it is clear that what has been done prior to this point is just not working.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

Gingrich Is Right #EERS

I'm filling in for Neal Boortz today and I am so shocked that some conservatives are beclowning themselves trying to defend an imperial judiciary. I'll have to spend some time on why Gingrich is right.

You can listen right here on the WSB live stream. I'll be on from 9am to 1pm ET today. The phone number is 1-877-310-2100.

Consider this an open thread.

Insanity

The Republican Party has gone insane.

For the better part of the last three years the Republican Party has exercised itself into a frenzy over the need to repeal Obamacare. For the two years leading up to November of 2010, mostly middle aged working white people took to the streets in sizes rivaling a NASCAR race to protest the socialization of the American health care system.

The individual mandate and TARP draw the ire of scores of primary voters.

And our two front runners for President? They both support an individual mandate and they both supported TARP.

Not only that, just last year Mitt Romney was saying he'd keep parts of Obamacare. Like supporting amnesty, he has changed his position just in time for an election cycle.

Are we really going to do this?

I just want everyone to make sure they understand this and remind them that Perry, Bachmann, Huntsman, and yes, even Rick Santorum are still in the race.

Morning Briefing for December 19, 2011

RedState Morning Briefing

December 19, 2011

Go to www.RedStateMB.com to get
the Morning Briefing every morning at no charge.

1. Insanity

2. House Must Decouple Payroll Tax Cut From Broader 'Extenders' Package

3. Offshore O&G Lease Sale: Small Companies Stay Away in Droves

4. SEIU Job Description: Train & Lead Members to Occupy State Buildings & Takeover Banks

5. The Truth about the New Detainee Policy

———————————————————————-

1. Insanity

The Republican Party has gone insane.

For the better part of the last three years the Republican Party has exercised itself into a frenzy over the need to repeal Obamacare. For the two years leading up to November of 2010, mostly middle aged working white people took to the streets in sizes rivaling a NASCAR race to protest the socialization of the American health care system.

The individual mandate and TARP draw the ire of scores of primary voters.

And our two front runners for President? They both support an individual mandate and they both supported TARP.

Not only that, just last year Mitt Romney was saying he'd keep parts of Obamacare. Like supporting amnesty, he has changed his position just in time for an election cycle.

Are we really going to do this?

I just want everyone to make sure they understand this and remind them that Perry, Bachmann, Huntsman, and yes, even Rick Santorum are still in the race.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

2. House Must Decouple Payroll Tax Cut From Broader 'Extenders' Package

Over the weekend, Mitch McConnell and Senate Republicans obviated the superior leverage of House Republicans by passing a two-month extension of the payroll tax cut, along with a clean extension (no reforms and offsets) of doc fix and unemployment benefits.

In a premature capitulation, they agreed (89-10) to amend the House extenders bill by eliminating most of the spending offsets, all of the UI reforms and the policy riders, with the exception of the Keystone pipeline provision. They will fill in the $33 billion two-month gaping budget hole with nebulous revenue increases from higher Freddie/Fannie mortgages over ten years. To the extent that those revenues will be actualized, this deal will indeed make it harder to shut down these officious venture-socialist enterprises. The Senate action was akin to grounding into a triple play for Team GOP, yet the underlying bill passed with unanimous consent.

Yes – we can already see the ecstatic pronouncements emanating from the McConnell Republican echo chamber. "We got the pipeline," they will exclaim. But here is the problem: the ship already sailed on that. This issue was such a political liability for Obama that, despite his rhetoric, it was a foregone conclusion he would be forced to cave on it. He was not going to allow this to become an albatross around his neck during the election. Accordingly, the White House is lending enthusiastic support to McConnell's Senate-passed extension. Besides, due to loopholes in the Keystone provision, the administration is already balking at compliance with the language of the bill.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

3. Offshore O&G Lease Sale: Small Companies Stay Away in Droves

On Wednesday of the week just past, the Department of the Interior conducted the first sale of oil and gas leases in the Gulf of Mexico since BP's Macondo oil spill. Measured by the statistics touted in Interior's press release, the sale would appear to be a rousing success.

A detailed look at the leasing history, however, reveals a different story. While deepwater remains active, the shallow water Gulf saw little leasing action. Many of the shallow water bidders from recent sales stayed home for Sale 218.

"Big Oil" rules the deepwater. Shallow water has become the domain of smaller independent companies, many of them privately-held. None of the shallow water operators are household names; nonetheless, their jobs and capital investment supports the economies of several states across the region and contributes to the nation's domestic energy supply.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

4. SEIU Job Description: Train & Lead Members to Occupy State Buildings & Takeover Banks

If there was ever any question whether the Service Employees International Union (SEIU) is a radical and militantly Marxist union, this SEIU job description for a Senior/Lead Internal Organizer, Home Care, posted on the SEIU's website should remove all doubts.

The SEIU is advertising on its main site for SEIU Healthcare 775NW in Washington State. Among the job duties (screenshot below the fold) listed includes the training of members in civil-disobedience, peaceful resistance (how to get arrested), as well as the occupation and takeover banks and state buildings.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

5. The Truth about the New Detainee Policy

On Thursday, Congress gave the President sweeping new power to detain American citizens indefinitely, without charge or trial. A provision in the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) empowers the President to detain anyone who "substantially supported" groups he determines are "associated forces" of terrorists.

The provision at issue, sec. 1021, was tucked into an 1800-page conference report that was shuttled through Congress in a matter of days. Given the complexity and weight of the issue, I was interested to read House Armed Services Committee Chairman Buck McKeon's post on RedState explaining the bill's detention policy. Unfortunately, the post is almost useless because it muddles two separate provisions of the NDAA.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

The Debate Play By Play #EERS

Tonight from 6pm ET to 9pm ET I'm going to do a detailed play by play of the Fox News Republican Debate from Iowa last night.

You aren't going to want to miss it. You can listen live on the WSB live stream and call in at 1-800-WSB-TALK.

You know, you guys never call in, but you really are allowed to.

Consider this an open thread.

Bad News for Barack Obama's Re-Election

He is still the favorite to win. He is the incumbent President of the United States. He flies on a big blue airplane that gives him free media exposure whenever he lands. He gets to bring along politicians with whom he can curry favor. It is hard to pick off an incumbent President.

But there are warning signs on the horizon for Mr. Obama. It is not just a sagging economy that may actually be on the way down, not up. Battleground state voters are leaving the Democratic Party. According to National Journal, "Over 825,000 registered Democrats in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina and Pennsylvania have departed the party rolls since President Obama's election in 2008."

USA Today reports that Republicans have become resurgent in key swing states too. "Since the heady days of 2008, a new USA TODAY/Gallup Swing States Poll finds the number of voters who identify themselves as Democratic or Democratic-leaning in these key states has eroded, down by 4 percentage points, while the ranks of Republicans have climbed by 5 points." Republican voters are also paying more attention and are more engaged. In key swing states, Obama trails both Romney and Gingrich.

"But wait," the television pitch man might say, "there's more!"

A Harvard University survey "of more than 2,000 young voters, age 18 to 29, finds their support for Obama, so crucial to his 2008 victory, has dwindled." The kids still like their Obamessiah more than they generic Republican, but they think he is going to lose. An Associated Press-GfK poll "finds a majority of American adults (52%) say the Democrat should be defeated come Nov. 6, while only 43% say he deserves a second term."

And Obama's divide and conquer strategy of pitting haves and have-nots against each other might not work. In addition to it running against the grain of the individualist DNA Americans have in them, a new Gallup poll suggests Obama's class warfare strategy might actually backfire.

It is always hard to beat an incumbent. But Barack Obama is making it easier than it has been since Carter was President.

Perry & Bachmann in Iowa

They had to do well in Iowa and they did. Mitt Romney had a better debate performance than this past Saturday. The software upgrade must have worked. Newt Gingrich held his own.

But Michele Bachmann got to Newt. She got the better of him on the issue of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae and he treated her so dismissively on the issue of abortion I expect it to really hurt him more with women.

Rick Perry has shown tremendous improvement. He got few questions, but each question he got he took the opportunity to hit a home run. His campaign has to be pleased. There is real momentum on the ground for Rick Perry. His polling has trended up and the buzz in Iowa has been growing more and more positive to him. In this, the last debate before Iowa goes to vote, Perry did everything he needed to do to be a real contender. His answers on the 10th Amendment and attacks on Obama and his call for a part time Congress resonated.

Newt Gingrich continues to be strong in foreign policy. His two major vulnerabilities are Freddie Mac/Fannie Mae and the individual mandate. I continue to be amazed at how poorly he handles those answers.

Mitt Romney performed well. But he continues to have little humor with handling his flip-flops, which will make the Democrats all the more eager to go after him on those. His best line of the night was comparing his corporate restructuring role to what Barack Obama did to General Motors. It was a brilliant comparison.

Oddly enough, I think one of the best answers of the night came from Jon Huntsman. He was asked about not signing the taxpayer pledge and his answer was basically, "I'm not playing your game." It is refreshing to see a candidate who really just doesn't seem to give a darn about the way others expect him to play the game. Truth be told, we really do put candidates through a dog and pony show and Huntsman seems to not suffer the fools who want him to go through the dog and pony show. I can respect that. Of course that might also be why he is polling so low.

But I expect him to keep going up in New Hampshire.

Ron Paul proved yet again that while he can hit all the right notes on economics and spending these days, he is too nuts on foreign policy to be trusted with the Presidency.

Rick Santorum was not angry last night. But he also strikes me as finally getting the joke. He'll do better than some expect in Iowa. But the curtain will come down after that.