Erick Erickson's Blog, page 79

Everything You Heard Last Night Was Bull, Perry Might Want to Stay In, & a Newtlear Attack

As you wake up this morning, Rick Santorum only lost to Mitt Romney by 8 votes. Santorum spent about a dollar per vote and Romney spent hundreds of dollars for his votes. Rick Santorum substantially over performed and while the Romney camp wants you to believe a win is a win, Romney got less votes in 2012 than he got in 2008. In addition, everything you heard last night from the professional class of political pundit was bull crap.

The political press and pundits have gotten so used to standard narratives that they cannot deviate from the mean even when it becomes grossly dislocated from reality.

First, the reason the GOP is having such a chaotic primary fight has nothing to do with the tea party. Frankly, it has nothing to do with the bulk of the GOP not wanting Romney.

The reason this Republican primary season is so chaotic is because George W. Bush failed to have a successor. Had President Bush had a Vice President to run for President, Bush would have undoubtedly made different policy decisions, but even aside from that there would have been an ascertainable front runner coming from the Bush administration to win or lose.

Because there was not such a thing and because the GOP likes orderly processes, we had to go back to 2000 and dredge up John McCain.

The Republican field was unable to reboot because we had no logical successor coming out of the White House to either win or lose. We went back to McCain and have had to work our way back through unresolved issues from 2000. And now, when the field should be rebooted, we're having to deal with Mitt Romney who should have been displaced by an heir in 2008 and instead, because the 2008 season did not reboot the crop of candidates, is now the guy three quarters of the GOP does not want who is about to be the nominee.

Our process is chaotic because Bush left us no heir to win or to be rejected through a cathartic process of locking in gains or moving on from Bush. Yes, this one is Bush's fault. On the bright side, the Democrats will have the same problem in 2016 unless Obama ditches Biden now for Hillary.

But that's not the only issue the media has failed to pay attention to. There was some serious bull crap coming out of reporters' mouths last night that is flat out false.

For starters, the media would have you believe that the 123,000 people who turned out for the Hawkeye Caucii was a record. This is simply not true except superficially. If you take out the non-Republicans who came into the caucuses last night for Ron Paul, the Republican turn out was less than 2008 — even considering the ratio of independents to Republicans who turned out in 2008.

At its best, this turn out does not signal core enthusiasm with the field as it is presently constituted and perhaps signals that an alternative could still jump in. Considering "winner takes all" races do not come until April, someone coming out now could campaign and build momentum to the winner takes all states.

Additionally, anyone who says "this was a victory for retail politics" should be beaten with an Iowan cattle prod. Rick Santorum's "victory" — and it was a victory in every sense but those 8 votes — was because he has run one of the most God awful disastrous retail campaign operations of any candidate with enough popularity to get on the debate stage.

Santorum visited all 99 Iowan counties, some of them repeatedly. His "successful" campaign never, ever caught on with Iowa voters despite all that retail time in Iowa. It only became successful when ever single other candidate had been vetted and imploded and there was absolutely no other person familiar to the voters who could stand as the non-Romney candidate.

Had Santorum run a successful retail campaign and caught fire on his own accord, he'd have been vetted by now and probably also succumbed to the Romney machine. His campaign was not successful, it's just all the others sucked so bad.

And now that leads me to Bachmann and Perry. Bachmann, the Iowa native, won not a single county. Even Rick Perry won two counties. Bachmann must drop out. Frankly, it makes sense for Perry to do so as well except for one issue.

If Rick Perry drops out of the race it will be the ultimate failure of the tea party movement to see the race come down to two or three big government conservatives. Romney and Santorum both hide behind compassionate conservatism to expand the state to suit their purposes. Only Rick Perry has run a campaign to make Washington "as inconsequential to our lives as possible."

If I were Perry, I'd wake up tomorrow, say I refuse to surrender the Republican Party into the hands of big government conservatives after all the gains the tea party has made, and then announce I'm firing all my political staffers and communications staffers and ask South Carolina to help me reboot to victory. Make it an Alamo stand and, if like at the Alamo Perry goes down, perhaps there'll at least be a rallying cry for small government conservatism left over.

That's just me. Perry's policy people have been phenomenal. The comms staff and political staff so badly bungled this that Rick Perry just suffered the first political loss of his career.

Don't count on it happening though.

As you wake up this morning, the tea party has failed because it has surrendered itself into the hands of Romney, Santorum, or Gingrich — all of whom would use government to suit allegedly conservative ends, which is not conservative in and of itself. But by God Mitt Romney may now get the political beating everyone has been expecting him to get. Newt Gingrich has nothing left to lose. He can go Newtlear against the guy he sees as having destroyed him. Newt Gingrich can unleash unmitigated hell against MItt Romney and just like the attacks on Newt were true, they'll all be true about MItt Romney too.

Morning Briefing for January 4, 2011

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For January 4, 2012

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Everything You Heard Last Night Was Bull Crap, Rick Perry Might Want to Stay In, and Prepare for a Newtlear Attack

As you wake up this morning, Rick Santorum only lost to Mitt Romney by 8 votes. Santorum spent about a dollar per vote and Romney spent hundreds of dollars for his votes. Rick Santorum substantially over performed and while the Romney camp wants you to believe a win is a win, Romney got less votes in 2012 than he got in 2008. In addition, everything you heard last night from the professional class of political pundit was bull crap.

The political press and pundits have gotten so used to standard narratives that they cannot deviate from the mean even when it becomes grossly dislocated from reality.

———————————————————————-

First, the reason the GOP is having such a chaotic primary fight has nothing to do with the tea party. Frankly, it has nothing to do with the bulk of the GOP not wanting Romney.

The reason this Republican primary season is so chaotic is because George W. Bush failed to have a successor. Had President Bush had a Vice President to run for President, Bush would have undoubtedly made different policy decisions, but even aside from that there would have been an ascertainable front runner coming from the Bush administration to win or lose.

Because there was not such a thing and because the GOP likes orderly processes, we had to go back to 2000 and dredge up John McCain.

The Republican field was unable to reboot because we had no logical successor coming out of the White House to either win or lose. We went back to McCain and have had to work our way back through unresolved issues from 2000. And now, when the field should be rebooted, we're having to deal with Mitt Romney who should have been displaced by an heir in 2008 and instead, because the 2008 season did not reboot the crop of candidates, is now the guy three quarters of the GOP does not want who is about to be the nominee.

Our process is chaotic because Bush left us no heir to win or to be rejected through a cathartic process of locking in gains or moving on from Bush. Yes, this one is Bush's fault. On the bright side, the Democrats will have the same problem in 2016 unless Obama ditches Biden now for Hillary.

But that's not the only issue the media has failed to pay attention to. There was some serious bull crap coming out of reporters' mouths last night that is flat out false.

For starters, the media would have you believe that the 123,000 people who turned out for the Hawkeye Caucii was a record. This is simply not true except superficially. If you take out the non-Republicans who came into the caucuses last night for Ron Paul, the Republican turn out was less than 2008 — even considering the ration of independents to Republicans who turned out in 2008.

At its best, this turn out does not signal core enthusiasm with the field as it is presently constituted and perhaps signals that an alternative could still jump in. Considering "winner takes all" races do not come until April, someone coming out now could campaign and build momentum to the winner takes all states.

Additionally, anyone who says "this was a victory for retail politics" should be beaten with an Iowan cattle prod. Rick Santorum's "victory" — and it was a victory in every sense but those 8 votes — was because he has run one of the most God awful disastrous retail campaign operations of any candidate with enough popularity to get on the debate stage.

Santorum visited all 99 Iowan counties, some of them repeatedly. His "successful" campaign never, ever caught on with Iowa voters despite all that retail time in Iowa. It only became successful when ever single other candidate had been vetted and imploded and there was absolutely no other person familiar to the voters who could stand as the non-Romney candidate.

Had Santorum run a successful retail campaign and caught fire on his own accord, he'd have been vetted by now and probably also succumbed to the Romney machine. His campaign was not successful, it's just all the others sucked so bad.

And now that leads me to Bachmann and Perry. Bachmann, the Iowa native, won not a single county. Even Rick Perry won two counties. Bachmann must drop out. Frankly, it makes sense for Perry to do so as well except for one issue.

If Rick Perry drops out of the race it will be the ultimate failure of the tea party movement to see the race come down to two or three big government conservatives. Romney and Santorum both hide behind compassionate conservatism to expand the state to suit their purposes. Only Rick Perry has run a campaign to make Washington "as inconsequential to our lives as possible."

If I were Perry, I'd wake up tomorrow, say I refuse to surrender the Republican Party into the hands of big government conservatives after all the gains the tea party has made, and then announce I'm firing all my political staffers and communications staffers and ask South Carolina to help me reboot to victory. Make it an Alamo stand and, if like at the Alamo Perry goes does, perhaps there'll at least be a rallying cry for small government conservatism left over.

That's just me. Perry's policy people have been phenomenal. The comms staff and political staff so badly bungled this that Rick Perry just suffered the first political loss of his career.

Don't count on it happening though.

As you wake up this morning, the tea party has failed because it has surrendered itself into the hands of Romney, Santorum, or Gingrich — all of whom would use government to suit allegedly conservative ends, which is not conservative in and of itself. But by God Mitt Romney may now get the political beating everyone has been expecting him to get. Newt Gingrich has nothing left to lose. He can go Newtlear against the guy he sees as having destroyed him. Newt Gingrich can unleash unmitigated hell against MItt Romney and just like the attacks on Newt were true, they'll all be true about MItt Romney too.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

The Early Entrance Polls

The early entrance polls are trickling out. CNN says Paul, Romney, and Santorum are in the top tier.

The Washington Post's Fix tweets that the 2012 evangelical crowd is about the same as 2008.

Anecdotally from several caucuses, and anecdotally only, I'm hearing the Occupiers showed up for Ron Paul. We'll see.

The next round of entrance polls comes soon.

What if Santorum Wins?

Thirty minutes from the start of the Hawkeye Caucii, let's ponder Nate Silver's analysis.

I can confirm from the ground that most everyone thinks Mitt Romney is going to win, but there are a heck of a lot of engaged evangelicals on the ground today doing last minute work to help Santorum and also to stop Romney.

If Santorum wins, a lot of people will be correct in saying Mitt Romney is still a winner because Santorum has no money or real organization to go beyond Iowa.

But my God in Heaven, the media is finally going to be confronted with an "Emperor Has No Clothes" moment on Romney too. That remains the most under reported story of 2012. Mitt Romney, campaigning since 2006 for President has managed to go from 23% to 23% in six years.

But he's the most electable.

It remains on the cusp of a pipe dream to think Santorum will beat Romney. But this is Iowa and we can dream in the field of candidates.

Santorum Did Not Expect This

I'm at the Santorum event tonight in Iowa. Nate Silver at the New York Times says we should not be surprised by a Santorum win, and I would not be surprised by a Santorum win. It is very possible based on the strength of evangelicals showing up across Iowa today to organize and get to the caucuses tonight..

These people really, really do not want Mitt Romney. However misguided I may think it is, because others have flamed out they are rallying to Santorum as the alternative.

But Santorum didn't see it coming. We're in a small location overloaded with press risers. The place is small for the standards of a front runner, though I'm sure we'll hear the word "cozy." Heck, I might use the word cozy to describe it. Santorum's party tonight reflects the campaign — it started off small, didn't really expect what was coming, and tonight will be packed.

I suspect the Fire Marshall is going to use "excess capacity" to describe it by 9pm. The media just overwhelms the room.

And in Iowa the Hawkeye Caucii start in about 30 minutes.

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The Huntsman Buzz In Iowa

I think it was a big mistake for Huntsman to write off Iowa. Today I am convinced of it. Every time the subject come up with Iowans I encounter, not to mention other conservatives here for the Hawkeye Caucii, they lament what might have been Jon Huntsman.

While I have issues with his record as Governor, it is much more conservative than Mitt Romney's and he has a much, much greater cross-party and independent appeal than Mitt Romney. People kind of like he doesn't give a crap about pandering.

But everyone closes their lament feeling Huntsman made a strategic decision to not ignore conservatives like Romney, but to give them the middle finger.

What I'm fascinated with it is the number of conservative activists who keep hoping, even now, for a "that was really all Jon Weaver" wink.

We have nearly reached the Rubicon when the 'not Romney' crowd is pining for Jon Huntsman.

Rick Perry's Closing Argument

What To Expect Tonight

You might think it will be a very slow process tonight given the speeches and the paper ballot counting. But actually the voting should move along quickly and we should start getting results between 8pm and 8:30 pm ET.

The media will conduct entrance polling, as opposed to exit polling as they do in primaries. You'll probably be able to tell if there is a blow out based on how quickly projections from the entrance polls are released. If news starts trickling out quickly, someone is walking away with it. If news takes a while, it is close. The entrance polling will also give us a good idea about second and third place finishers too.

One thing to keep in mind tonight is that the first wave of entrance polling is typically less reliable than the later entrance poll results because the people who show up early are there in a more organized fashion for one particular candidate. The first round of entrance polls in 2008 leaned toward Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney.

The funniest thing about Iowa and the hype it gets is that it amounts to a non-binding straw poll wherein no delegates are actually chosen. Many of the caucuses are going to be small and events will go fast, even if things are close.

And unlike primaries, there will be no recount. The vote is as it is no matter how close it is and we should not have to wait up all night to find out who wins.

The Second Coming of John McCain

Objectively on the ground here, it is doggone cold. Also, it seems the Santorum surge has ended, or at least stalled. On CNN last night, Mary Matalin noted that a number of people unconnected to campaigns say the surge is stalled out.

The caucuses will be tonight. For years the media has treated Iowa as the Super Bowl, but this year, with proportional delegates, it really is more the pre-season. This could go on a while. My guess is that Mitt Romney and Ron Paul are first and second. Rick Santorum or Rick Perry will probably be third. Santorum because of his late surge. Perry because of organization.

If Iowans want to see the second coming of John McCain, they'll support Rick Santorum like they supported Huckabee and we'll get a moderate named Romney who won't really fight in the general election.

As Dan McLaughlin notes, if Iowans hand third place to Rick Perry, they've not only given him a guaranteed life line (one he'd probably get in fourth place too), but they have also ensured he will be the GOP nominee.

I'll be bringing you updates throughout the day from the ground in Des Moines, IA both here and on radio from 9am to 1:00 p.m. ET. You can listen here. Tonight, I'll be on CNN starting at 6pm ET.

Let the games begin.

Morning Briefing for January 3, 2011

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For December 9, 2011

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Good Morning From Iowa.

Objectively on the ground here, it is doggone cold. Also, it seems the Santorum surge has ended, or at least stalled. On CNN last night, Mary Matalin noted that a number of people unconnected to campaigns say the surge is stalled out.

The caucuses will be tonight. For years the media has treated Iowa as the Super Bowl, but this year, with proportional delegates, it really is more the pre-season. This could go on a while. My guess is that Mitt Romney and Ron Paul are first and second. Rick Santorum or Rick Perry will probably be third. Santorum because of his late surge. Perry because of organization.

If Iowans want to see the second coming of John McCain, they'll support Rick Santorum like they supported Huckabee and we'll get a moderate named Romney who won't really fight in the general election.

As Dan McLaughlin notes in the top post this morning, if Iowans hand third place to Rick Perry, they've not only given him a guaranteed life line (one he'd probably get in fourth place too), but they have also ensured he will be the GOP nominee.

I'll be bringing you updates throughout the day from the ground in Des Moines, IA both here and on radio from 9am to 1:00 p.m. ET. You can listen here. Tonight, I'll be on CNN starting at 6pm ET.

Let the games begin.

1. The Conservative Race In Iowa

2. Quash the Ethanol Beast in Honor of Iowa Caucuses

3. Univision Chairman Calls Rubio "Anti-Hispanic"

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1. The Conservative Race In Iowa

There are 2,286 delegates awarded in the GOP primaries and caucuses; the nomination thus requires wrapping up 1,143 delegates. Between them, Iowa and New Hampshire award 10 delegates; South Carolina and Florida, the other two states voting later this month, award 75. By contrast, three states (California, Texas and New York) award a combined 422 delegates, more than a third of the total needed to win. So, the race is far from over after New Hampshire, and as long as there is credible opposition, it can go on for quite a while after South Carolina and Florida as well.

That said, the early states are traditionally a test of strength that helps winnow the field to the more serious contenders, especially those with the fundraising ability and appeal beyond a narrow niche to make a serious effort to win the nomination. But three of the seven candidates now in the race are pretty much guaranteed to go beyond Iowa. First, Mitt Romney: Romney would like to win Iowa, and could be embarrassed if he finishes third (lower is very unlikely), but no matter what happens, Romney's money, his appeal to the moderate wing of the party, and his establishment support will carry him to New Hampshire, where he is heavily favored to win easily. Second, Ron Paul: Paul could do well in Iowa as a protest vote if there are a lot of independents and Democrats re-registering tomorrow on caucus day, but his hard core of support and idosyncratic appeal guarantee that he will be in the race as long as there's a race, regardless of how he does in any contest, yet with no chance of ever winning. And third, Jon Huntsman: Huntsman has placed all his chips on New Hampshire and already plans on finishing a distant seventh in Iowa. The only effect Iowa has on Huntsman is indirect: if Romney looks weak coming out of Iowa, Huntsman can ratchet up his efforts to convince New Hampshire moderates that Romney is fatally flawed.

Where Iowa could matter a lot, however, is in sorting out the four candidates running as the field's conservatives: Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum and Michele Bachmann. (Let's leave aside for the moment the arguments over who can claim the term "conservative"; clearly this is the role in the field all four are pursuing). They represent a caucus-within-a-caucus, and even though they are likely to be separated 1-4 by a relatively small number of votes, their order of finish could have an outsized impact on the race, eliminating anywhere from 1-3 of them from the field.

Let me go out on a limb: if Perry finishes third in Iowa, he'll be the nominee. He's the guy best suited by money, organization and resume to capitalize on a strong Iowa showing, which is why Romney's media allies have been talking up Santorum's momentum instead.

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2. Quash the Ethanol Beast in Honor of Iowa Caucuses

As the clock struck 12 am January 1, one of the most anti free market government interventions expired without renewal and without fanfare. In honor of the Iowa Caucuses, we can now declare that the ethanol subsidies and tariffs are finally dead. However, before we celebrate this rare piece of good news, we must remember that in order to deracinate the ethanol beast from our midst, we must destroy its third leg; the 10% blenders mandate.

Over the past decade, ethanol has been the poster child for the worst aspects of big-government crony capitalism. The ethanol industry has used the fist of government to mandate that fuel blenders use their product, to subsidize their production with refundable tax credits, and to impose tariffs on more efficient sugar-based ethanol from Brazil.

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3. Univision Chairman Calls Rubio "Anti-Hispanic"

Haim Saban is an Egyptian born Israeli-American and Chairman of Univision, the Hispanic television station. For the past several months, Univision has tried to get Marco Rubio to come on Univision for an interview and offered to kill or run a negative story on Marco Rubio's brother-in-law depending on what Rubio did.

Senator Rubio would not be bought and Univision ran the story on his brother-in-law. Subsequently, all of the Republican candidates refused to participate in a debate on Univision, opting instead for a debate with Univision's competitor Telemundo.

The New Yorker has a big story on what Univision did or did not do to Marco Rubio. It's fully pro-Univision spin. The Miami Herald has reviewed it. About all you need to know is that Haim Saban, Chairman of Univision, claims that Marco Rubio is "anti-Hispanic."

The New Yorker piece is written by liberal writer Ken Auletta who once claimed that Rubert Murdoch imposes his political preferences on Fox News and other Newscorp holdings, but for some reason can't seem to believe Haim Saban, who has a long history of supporting left-leaning causes, would do the same.

And we know what agenda Haim Saban wants to push.

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